3South Alabama shifts fanbase identity, redefining program.
Major Applewhite enters his second season with a 4-8 losing record to overcome, as South Alabama's fanbase identity shifts amid its recent FBS ascent.
3Major Applewhite enters his second season with a 4-8 losing record to overcome, as South Alabama's fanbase identity shifts amid its recent FBS ascent.
South Alabama is one of the youngest programs in the sport — its first football game was in 2009 — and it has spent fifteen years writing a history from a blank page on the Gulf Coast in Mobile.
Jaguar fans live in the shadow of Alabama and Auburn, where the whole state's football identity already lives. They'll tell you South Alabama built a program from literally nothing in their lifetime…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs SE Louisiana · Sat Sep 5 · 23:00 UTC
South Alabama is the Sun Belt program whose 2009 football founding + 2012 FBS reclassification + Hancock Whitney Stadium 2020 opening + 2023 7-6 + Kane Wommack era define what most-recent-FBS-newcomer-ascent looks like.
With a returning player percentage of 25% and heavy reliance on transfers, South Alabama's 2026 season hinges on integrating new talent. The team's recruiting rank of #77 and a net portal exporter status highlight the challenges ahead.
South Paw the Jaguar is patient.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Major Applewhite enters his second season with a 4-8 losing record to overcome, as South Alabama's fanbase identity shifts amid its recent FBS ascent.
Major Applewhite's second season begins with a 4-8 losing record hanging over South Alabama, raising questions about whether the coordinator-driven reshaping can elevate the program's recent FBS newcomer ascent.
South Alabama collapsed 53 spots in SP+ — the 4-8 record and 102nd talent rank highlight the steep climb Major Applewhite faces in his second season to reverse the slide.
Jeremy Scott is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Keenan Phillips: a closer signal screened this season.
South Alabama collapsed 53 spots in SP+ — the steepest drop in the Sun Belt this cycle, leaving Major Applewhite to prove 2023’s 7-6 isn’t an outlier under his watch.
South Alabama: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
EDGE Christian Ross transfer commits from Holy Cross
FCS-to-Sun Belt jumps aren't automatic, but Ross fills the Tyler Thomas-shaped hole on a Jaguar edge that added 6 and still needed pressure at the top — bouncing back from 4-8 starts with filling the room right.
Craig Connor III commits to South Alabama
Applewhite's DL room needed bodies, not just stars — Connor III is the kind of depth-class add that keeps a #118 class from feeling thin up front when camp two-a-days hit.
Top 3 commits
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
South Alabama · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
South Alabama: the fanbase's identity shifting.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
South Alabama: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Opens Sep 5
vs SE Louisiana · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
MS leads the 2026 class with 9 commits. National footprint reaching 11 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
89 signees across 13 states, 2023-2026. AL leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
4 games with TV coverage: 2 ESPN, 1 conference network, 1 streaming
Kickoff windows: 2 noon, 2 primetime
82% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~49% league baseline.
9 of 11 forced fumbles recovered; 8 of 14 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
12% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~19% league average, and due for more.
6 interceptions of 49 disrupted passes (43 deflected, 6 intercepted), 2025 only.
78 penalties committed, 85 drawn on opponents — a near-even trade all season.
659 penalty yards committed vs. 666 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 2 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
How South Alabama fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
~ our readNot enough South Alabama chatter this week to read the room.
We read 32 South Alabama posts this week — not enough to call the room. Check back during the season.
“Unfortunate that making fans mad can’t help you perform better on the field. Huge respect to Pavia he’s great but he talked a lot of shit and had a pretty ass game”— r/CFB
“Better arm than Gio imo, but our coach needs to actually let him throw the damn ball. But there’s pros and cons for both. Didn’t get nearly enough time on the field last season and I’m glad he stuck around.”— r/CFB
Forum Pulse
via ThunderJags
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · South Alabama · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game Manager · +0.15 EPA/play | 4 | 12 | 200 / 294 | 68.0 | 2072 | 7.0 | 12 | 6 | 136.6 | 48.8 | 6.3 | 5.2 | |
Yards by week → Game ManagerConsistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 9 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Completion %67.8% 79th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush usage28.3% 71th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Bishop Davenport's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.53 EPA/play | 7 | 4 | 12 / 16 | 75 | 101 | 6.3 | 1 | 0 | 148.7 | 52.5 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.03 EPA/play | 3 | 12 | 218 | 1085 #28 FBS | 5.0 | 14 #20 FBS | 64 | 22.2 | 21 | 10.8 | 11.3 | 6.0% (18/299) | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Kentrel Bullock's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.02 EPA/play | 21 | 12 | 126 | 622 | 4.9 | 3 | 54 | 14.8 | 13.9 | 16.7 | 10.3 | 5.0% (15/299) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Keenan Phillips's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.13 EPA/play | — | 8 | 60 | 326 | 5.4 | 2 | 38 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 10 | 10 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View PJ Martin's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.27 EPA/play | 1 | 12 | 67 | 775 #74 FBS | 11.6 | 4 | 65 | 13.6 | 13.9 | 35.1% (105/299) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume67 96th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.3 bottom 21th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 50th to 84th percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.48 EPA/play | 9 | 9 | 24 | 417 | 17.4 | 4 | 74 | 1.8 | 5.6 | 10.4% (31/299) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception19.9 96th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate16.7% 91th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jeremy Scott's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.15 EPA/play | 11 | 12 | 40 | 339 | 8.5 | 1 | 48 | 4.9 | 11.3 | 20.4% (61/299) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception8.3 bottom 9th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.2 bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Anthony Eager's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.57 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 15 | 128 | 8.5 | 0 | 32 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 5.4% (16/299) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception7.5 bottom 17th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Miller McCrumby's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.59 EPA/play | 12 | 5 | 9 | 117 | 13 | 1 | 30 | 5.4 | 3.5 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.45 EPA/play | 6 | 7 | 11 | 113 | 10.3 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 2.1 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +1.02 EPA/play | 19 | 4 | 6 | 52 | 8.7 | 1 | 15 | 5.9 | 6.1 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 45 | 12 | 31 | 13 | 3 | 0.5 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Ed Smith IV's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 18 | 10 | 24 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · sophomore our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 5th to 56th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 96 | 10 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2025 class View Dominic Wiseman's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 99 | 10 | 16 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight324 lb 93th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Stephen Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 97 | 6 | 16 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.8% 67th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyler Thomas's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 90 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate6.7% bottom 20th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View E'Mauri Smiley's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 9 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 2.5 | 1 | 2 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.9% 63th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Emmanuel Waller's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 91 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.4% 53th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Nathan Jennings's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 30 | 8 | 12 | 4 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.5% bottom 41th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Achilles Woods's full player page | |||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 32 | 11 | 84 | 38 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2022 class View Blayne Myrick's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 28 | 11 | 71 | 31 | 40 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · senior View Darius McKenzie's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 20 | 11 | 54 | 26 | 28 | 5.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume54 54th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate1.9% bottom 37th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tirrell Johnson Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 10 | 40 | 12 | 28 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume40 bottom 35th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.5% bottom 17th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dalton Hughes's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 22 | 8 | 39 | 13 | 26 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume39 bottom 34th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate1.3% bottom 13th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caleb Dozier's full player page | |||||||||
| 27 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | — | 12 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume73 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Christopher Wallace Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 1 | 10 | 53 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume53 70th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Wesley Miller's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 11 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 4.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate20.0% 95th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 9th percentile among FBS Ss to the 57th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 8 | 9 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 0th to 18th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 6 | 11 | 31 | 13 #2 FBS | 2 | 2.5 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate41.9% 100th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Nehemiah Chandler's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 2 | 12 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · junior View Jayvon Henderson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 17 | 9 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Dallas Young's full player page | |||||||
| 16 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 7 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94 | 8 | 6/9 | 66.7 | 20/22 | 38 | 47 | |
| 35 | 5 | 1/1 | 100 | 13/15 | 16 | 23 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 40 | 12 | 49 | 1979 | 40.4 | 59 | 9 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.27 EPA/play | 1 | 12 | 11 | 125 | 11.4 | 0 | 46 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+19 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #85 | #201 | -28.5 | Morgan State | W 38–21 121 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #107 | #59 | +13.5 | Tulane | L 31–33 137 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #99 | #46 | +26.5 | @Auburn | L 15–31 131 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #94 | #136 | -14.5 | Coastal Carolina | L 20–38 136 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #108 | #93 | +11.5 | @North Texas | L 22–36 142 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #111 | #86 | -2.5 | @Troy | L 24–31 137 | 1-5 | 0-2 |
| 8 | Oct 14 | #116 | #152 | -8.5 | Arkansas State | L 14–15 136 | 1-6 | 0-3 |
| 9 | Oct 23 | #127 | #165 | -6 | @Georgia State | W 38–31 139 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #117 | #110 | -3.5 | Louisiana | L 22–31 132 | 2-7 | 1-4 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #138 | #182 | -4.5 | @UL Monroe | W 26–14 119 | 3-7 | 2-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #122 | #126 | +2.5 | Southern Miss | W 42–35 153 | 4-7 | 3-4 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #119 | #61 | +9.5 | @Texas State | L 26–49 140 | 4-8 | 3-4 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 | @Texas State | L 26–49 | 364 | 1 | 29:11 | +0.051 | 38.4% | 129.2% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 22 | Southern Miss | W 42–35 | 449 | 0 | 37:17 | +0.176 | 45.0% | 117.8% | One-score win |
| Nov 15 | @UL Monroe | W 26–14 | 362 | 1 | 37:25 | +0.077 | 43.0% | 114.9% | Best defensive stand |
| Nov 1 | Louisiana | L 22–31 | 368 | 1 | 27:06 | +0.053 | 41.7% | 114.3% | |
| Oct 23 | @Georgia State | W 38–31 | 468 | 0 | 30:03 | +0.400 | 45.2% | 139.9% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 14 | Arkansas State | L 14–15 | 293 | 0 | 30:04 | +0.115 | 35.8% | 108.4% | One-score loss |
| Oct 4 | @Troy | L 24–31 | 369 | 0 | 30:11 | +0.163 | 43.5% | 102.8% | One-score loss |
| Sep 27 | @North Texas | L 22–36 | 396 | 1 | 32:28 | +0.220 | 39.2% | 133.5% | |
| Sep 20 | Coastal Carolina | L 20–38 | 420 | 3 | 36:41 | +0.044 | 38.3% | 116.0% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 13 | @Auburn | L 15–31 | 310 | 2 | 31:27 | +0.086 | 33.8% | 133.7% | |
| Sep 6 | Tulane | L 31–33 | 421 | 2 | 25:31 | +0.248 | 47.0% | 127.7% | One-score loss |
| Aug 30 | Morgan State | W 38–21 | 367 | 1 | 26:22 | +0.345 | 53.6% | 102.9% | Best success rate |
| Season average (12 games) | 382 | 1.0 | +0.165 | 42.0% | 120.1% | ||||
South Alabama fields a capable run-heavy, methodical, ball-control offense behind a porous defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
36th percentile quality, 58th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 45th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 22nd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
53rd percentile success on standard downs, 28th on passing downs — a 25-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 56th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 41st — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.16; 54th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.35 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
South Alabama reads strongest in rushing epa (top 33%) and success rate (top 51%); the crux lives in rushing epa allowed, where South Alabama sits at the 13th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · South Alabama
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · South Alabama · 2018-present
52% home win rate vs 33% on the road. margin runs +11.0 better at home. Hancock Whitney Stadium seats 25,450, averaging 67% full (17,008 attendance, 22 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Kentrel Bullock and Keenan Phillips split the carries (217/346 vs 129/346) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Kentrel Bullock gets the goal line.
Inside-the-5 share, week by week (weeks both players actually played the role)
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Devin Voisin (WR) and Miller McCrumby (TE) split the targets (101/117 vs 16/117) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 13 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 13 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, South Alabama’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.6% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 112-play sample) — mid-pack, 99 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Historical echo
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
74°F average kickoff temp; 11% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 71 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
South Alabama's 2014–2025 record is 63-85. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 2011 · 15 seasons · .414 win rate
South Alabama played its first football game in 2009. By 2024, it had a bowl win over Western Michigan and a 7-6 record. In 2025, Major Applewhite's second year went 4-8. A program this young doesn't have the luxury of setbacks feeling normal yet.
Almost everything in the South Alabama record book is a 'first.' First game, first bowl trip, first win, first on-campus stadium — Hancock Whitney Stadium opened in 2020 after a decade of sharing Ladd-Peebles with the city. The Jaguars are one of the youngest programs in major-college football, which means the history is still being written and the fans who have followed from the beginning remember all of it: Joey Jones starting from nothing in 2009, the climb to the Sun Belt, Gerald Everett becoming the program's first marquee NFL Draft pick, Jalen Tolbert following him.
Applewhite's 2024 debut went 7-6 with a bowl win and the program's credibility was real. The 4-8 step back in 2025 (3-5 Sun Belt West) was the kind of regression that hits a young program differently than it would an established one — there's no forty years of winning history to absorb the fall. The fanbase split is between patience and alarm: one side says a program this young needs room to develop and a bad year is part of the building; the other tasted the 2024 bowl and won't accept it as the ceiling.
The 2026 question is the simplest one in Mobile: can Applewhite get back to the bowl? The Sun Belt conference title — the first in program history — remains the explicit target. A program writing its record book from scratch is at its best when it has something to write.
A modern Sun Belt spread identity still defining itself — South Alabama is young enough that its scheme fingerprint isn't fully inherited; it's being built. The Gulf Coast recruiting base around Mobile gives the Jaguars access to talent that flows into the SEC and beyond, which means the ceiling on the roster is real even if the program is still figuring out how to build around it consistently. Applewhite's background is offensive-line-driven and quarterback-centric; the 2026 version of the scheme will reflect his third year of implementation.
South Alabama 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.07 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 4-8
South Alabama: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
Sun Belt Standing · 2025
South Alabama is 9th of 14 in the Sun Belt at 3-4. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Madison | 8-0 |
| 2 | Old Dominion | 6-2 |
| 3 | Southern Miss | 5-3 |
| 4 | Troy | 5-3 |
| 5 | Coastal Carolina | 5-4 |
| 6 | Georgia Southern | 5-4 |
| 7 | Arkansas State | 4-3 |
| 8 | Louisiana | 4-3 |
| 9 | South Alabama | 3-4 |
| 10 | Louisiana Tech | 2-0 |
| 11 | Marshall | 2-5 |
| 12 | App State | 2-7 |
| 13 | UL Monroe | 1-6 |
| 14 | Georgia State | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · South Alabama
Major Applewhite in year 3 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2009
South Alabama football began in 2009 — one of the most-recent FBS-level program creations in CFB history. The program went FCS independent 2009-2011, FBS independent 2012, then Sun Belt 2013. The 2009 founding-from-scratch + rapid ascent to FBS make USA's institutional story unique.
since 2020
Hancock Whitney Stadium (built 2020) — South Alabama's first dedicated on-campus stadium — replaced decades at Ladd-Peebles Stadium (a shared off-campus venue). The 25,450 capacity + Mobile geographic setting + on-campus location + corporate naming-rights modernity create a venue distinct from the post-2009 founding era.
since 1963
South Alabama's Mobile, AL location + Gulf Coast regional identity + competition with Alabama / Auburn / Ole Miss / Mississippi State + the Senior Bowl host city create a unique geographic catchment. The program's positioning + the Senior Bowl proximity + Hancock Whitney corporate naming anchor identity.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2009
South Alabama plays the first football game in school history, beginning a program from a blank page
2020
The Jaguars open their own on-campus stadium after a decade sharing Mobile's Ladd-Peebles — a young program finally putting down roots
Major Applewhite's debut season ends with a bowl victory over Western Michigan — the program's strongest recent statement
Moment of the Year · South Alabama · 2025
Week 3 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2024 — win 23-30 (away). Last 5 postseason: 2-3.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–20232 picks last 5 cycles. Roster development still maturing.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: co-Jason Washington / Todd Orlando — not yet reflected in on-field data.
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