Marshall beats South Alabama 20-13
Team pages: South Alabama · Marshall
Marshall beat South Alabama 20-13. Share this game
We had South Alabama favored. Marshall won.
Next: South Alabama vs Louisiana Tech, Sat Oct 31
Next: Marshall at Old Dominion, Sat Oct 31
How it swung
The turning point: Martin 19-yd TD run, ties it 13-13 (Q4, 4:38). Marshall went from 89% to 60% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Marshall a 32% chance, and the closing betting line (Marshall was a 1.5-point underdog) put it at 45%.
A tight one: Marshall bottomed out at 38% and won.
South Alabama never had better than a 62% chance.
Marshall 20-13 South Alabama
Marshall wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.South Alabama 13-20 MarshallSouth Alabama lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
- 1Q1 9:27Diaz Nicolas 49-yd field goal no goodMarshall 71% → 48% (−23)
- 2Q4 4:38Martin 19-yd TD run, ties it 13-13Marshall 89% → 60% (−29)
- 3Q4 1:49Price 5-yd TD run, Marshall goes ahead 20-13Marshall 65% → 90% (+25)
The three plays that swung it
- 1Q1 9:27Diaz Nicolas 49-yd field goal no goodSouth Alabama 29% → 52% (+23)
- 2Q4 4:38Martin 19-yd TD run, ties it 13-13South Alabama 11% → 40% (+29)
- 3Q4 1:49Price 5-yd TD run, Marshall goes ahead 20-13South Alabama 35% → 10% (−25)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (South Alabama -1.5), at 56% for Marshall (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Marshall’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q3, 6:17Hollins intercepted by Funderburk at the Marshall 45Q3, 6:17 · Marshall 6, South Alabama 6▲18%Marshall’s chance to win, 43% to 61%▲18%Marshall’s chance to win, 43% to 61%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 3:25Turner 3-yd TD runMarshall goes ahead 13-6Q3, 3:25 · Marshall 13, South Alabama 6▲7%Marshall’s chance to win, 67% to 74%▲7%Marshall’s chance to win, 67% to 74%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 4:38Martin 19-yd TD runties it 13-13Q4, 4:38 · Marshall 13, South Alabama 13▼29%Marshall’s chance to win, 89% to 60%▼29%Marshall’s chance to win, 89% to 60%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 1:49Price 5-yd TD runMarshall goes ahead 20-13Q4, 1:49 · Marshall 20, South Alabama 13▲25%Marshall’s chance to win, 65% to 90%▲25%Marshall’s chance to win, 65% to 90%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
Marshall scored on 4 of its 11 drives; South Alabama on 3 of its 11.
Marshall’s drives are teal, South Alabama’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From South Alabama’s side
South Alabama’s best moment: Martin 19-yd TD run, ties it 13-13 (Q4 4:38). It lifted South Alabama’s win chance by 29 points.
When fans got loud
Firestorm
Fans peaked right at the end.
The jump was firestorm; the crowd was quiet.
Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.
“Please let this game go to OT. I need more of it”
Too close to call on 60% of plays.
What it cost
South Alabama’s chance to win the conference fell from 7% to 4%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 19, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
South Alabama plays vs Louisiana Tech on Sat Oct 31 with a 4% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Marshall 20, South Alabama 13
Marshall covered +1.5 by 8.5. The total, 33, stayed under 66.5.
| Team totals | South Alabama | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 326 | 328 |
| Passing | 12 of 33, 148 yds | 21 of 33, 181 yds |
| Rushing | 42 for 178 yds | 33 for 147 yds |
| First downs | 19 | 20 |
| Third down | 4 of 18 | 5 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Penalties | 4 for 30 yds | 5 for 50 yds |
| Time of possession | 30:38 | 29:22 |
South Alabama leaders
- Passing Jared Hollins 12 of 33, 148 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Keenan Phillips 16 for 70 yds; PJ Martin 14 for 47 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Brendan Jenkins 4 for 75 yds; Anthony Eager 2 for 43 yds
Marshall leaders
- Passing Zion Turner 21 of 33, 181 yds
- Rushing Khalil Wilkins 8 for 69 yds; Zion Turner 9 for 45 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Toby Payne 7 for 69 yds; Adrian Norton 3 for 52 yds
No rain and calm
62° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 2 mph from the east, gusts to 5
October game-day temperatures at Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Huntington/tri Stat airport, 8.3 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
South Alabama · 4-2
Rated 60th in our preseason ratings, 83rd now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Arkansas State as a 3-point underdog.
Last three games
Marshall · 3-3
Rated 23rd in our preseason ratings, 103rd now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Marshall
- Wk 2Wvs Middle Tennessee28-26
- Wk 3Wat Missouri State30-24
- Wk 4Wvs Gardner-Webb36-35
- Wk 5Lat James Madison17-45
- Wk 6Lvs Coastal Carolina21-27
South Alabama
- Wk 2Lat Tulane24-28
- Wk 3Wvs Ohio41-36
- Wk 4Lat Kentucky21-45
- Wk 5Wvs UL Monroe52-35
- Wk 6Wat Arkansas State56-49
Power rating by week
South Alabama is rated 1.7 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: South Alabama’s passing EPA against Marshall, 69 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
South Alabama’s passing EPA against Marshall’s defense
South Alabama offense, 75th percentile · Marshall defense, 6th
South Alabama’s explosive plays against Marshall’s defense
South Alabama offense, 82nd percentile · Marshall defense, 16th
South Alabama’s EPA/play against Marshall’s defense
South Alabama offense, 66th percentile · Marshall defense, 8th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
South Alabama leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2023 · South Alabama won the last meeting
- 2023South Alabama 28-0
Each line is Marshall’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
South Alabama fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (79th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 32%
- Line · 45%
- Marshall fans · 58th
- South Alabama fans · 79th
South Alabama favored by 1.5 · Total 66.5
How games like this usually go
South Alabama by 1.5, on the usual path until 0:39 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 255 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Marshall.
The total rose 4 points.
Spread: +3 → +1.5 · Total: 62.5 → 66.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Marshall is worth +1.8 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 15th percentile.
66% at home, 52% on the road against FBS opponents (29-15 home, 25-23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.2 at home vs. away over 102 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 626 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Marshall13th0-2
- South Alabama2nd2-0