South Alabama beats UL Monroe 52-35
Team pages: UL Monroe · South Alabama
South Alabama beat UL Monroe 52-35. Share this game
We had South Alabama favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave South Alabama an 89% chance, and the closing betting line (South Alabama was a 12.5-point favorite) put it at 84%.
Favored the whole way: South Alabama never fell below 85%.
UL Monroe never had better than a 14% chance.
South Alabama · Q1 13:13South Alabama 52-35 UL Monroe
South Alabama wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.UL Monroe 35-52 South AlabamaUL Monroe lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (South Alabama -12.5), at 86% for South Alabama (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
South Alabama scored on 7 of its 12 drives; UL Monroe on 5 of its 13.
South Alabama’s drives are teal, UL Monroe’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
What it cost
South Alabama’s chance to win the conference rose from 3% to 4%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
South Alabama 52, UL Monroe 35
South Alabama covered −12.5 by 4.5. The total, 87, went over 57.5.
| Team totals | UL Monroe | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 442 | 570 |
| Passing | 25 of 41, 355 yds | 14 of 19, 321 yds |
| Rushing | 28 for 87 yds | 46 for 249 yds |
| First downs | 21 | 20 |
| Third down | 3 of 13 | 6 of 13 |
| Fourth down | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties | 4 for 22 yds | 3 for 25 yds |
| Time of possession | 28:58 | 31:02 |
UL Monroe leaders
- Passing Aidan Armenta 25 of 41, 355 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Zachary Palmer-Smith 8 for 54 yds, 1 TD; Bryson Roland 4 for 12 yds
- Receiving Marcellus Jackson 5 for 93 yds; LT Robinson 4 for 58 yds
South Alabama leaders
- Passing Jared Hollins 14 of 19, 321 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Trae'von Dunbar 12 for 91 yds, 1 TD; PJ Martin 13 for 58 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Anthony Eager 4 for 168 yds, 2 TD; Brendan Jenkins 3 for 91 yds, 1 TD
No rain through the game
77° at kickoff · 0.02 in of rain by radar over the stadium
Game-day temperatures at Hancock Whitney Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Mobile/bates Field, 3.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
UL Monroe · 0-4
Rated 153rd in our preseason ratings, 188th now.
4 straight losses.
Last 4 games
South Alabama · 2-2
Rated 60th in our preseason ratings, 73rd now.
2-2 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
South Alabama
- Wk 1Wvs SE Louisiana39-14
- Wk 2Lat Tulane24-28
- Wk 3Wvs Ohio41-36
- Wk 4Lat Kentucky21-45
UL Monroe
- Wk 1Lat Mississippi State13-62
- Wk 2Lat UAB20-26
- Wk 3Lvs SE Louisiana35-38
- Wk 4Lvs Florida Atlantic17-45
Power rating by week
South Alabama is rated 8.2 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: South Alabama’s rushing EPA against UL Monroe, 78 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
South Alabama’s EPA/play against UL Monroe’s defense
South Alabama offense, 67th percentile · UL Monroe defense, 3rd
South Alabama’s rushing EPA against UL Monroe’s defense
South Alabama offense, 81st percentile · UL Monroe defense, 3rd
South Alabama’s explosive plays against UL Monroe’s defense
South Alabama offense, 82nd percentile · UL Monroe defense, 63rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
South Alabama leads the series 7-5
12 meetings since 2012 · South Alabama has won the last 4
- 2025South Alabama 26-14
- 2024South Alabama 46-17
- 2023South Alabama 55-7
- 2022South Alabama 41-34
- 2021UL Monroe 41-31
Each line is South Alabama’s chance to win through that meeting.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on South Alabama’s chances here.
South Alabama favored by 12.5 · Total 57.5
How games like this usually go
South Alabama by 12.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward UL Monroe.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: −14.5 → −12.5 · Total: 55.5 → 57.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm, with rain. Feels like 80° at kickoff.
UL Monroe at South Alabama · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile
- 80°feels like at kickoff
- 0.01 inrain at kickoff
- 94weather score, Comfortable
- 2ndbest of the day's 5 kickoff times
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second best of the day's five kickoff times. At Hancock Whitney Stadium that day, a 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 97, against 94 at 6 pm.
- 11 am: 62, Rough
- 2:30 pm: 71, Rough
- 3:15 pm: 78, Mixed
- 6 pm: 94, Comfortable (this game)
- 6:45 pm: 97, Comfortable
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
South Alabama is worth +3.5 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 39th percentile.
47% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (20-23 home, 17-35 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.0 at home vs. away over 103 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 261 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- UL Monroe 42, South Alabama 35Nov 5, 2016
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- South Alabama7th0-0
- UL Monroe3rd0-0