SE Louisiana upsets UL Monroe 38-35

Team pages: SE Louisiana · UL Monroe

SE Louisiana2-238
UL Monroe0-335Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Malone Stadium, Monroe, La.ESPN+

SE Louisiana beat UL Monroe 38-35 as a 9.5-point underdog.

We had UL Monroe favored. SE Louisiana won.

Next: SE Louisiana beat Northwestern State 52-21, Sat Sep 26

Next: UL Monroe lost to Florida Atlantic 45-17, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Armenta incomplete to Trujillo, turnover on downs (Q4, 0:08). SE Louisiana went from 93% to 51% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave SE Louisiana a 38% chance, and the closing betting line (SE Louisiana was a 9.5-point underdog) put it at 22%.

Punt return TDSE Louisiana · Q3 5:33Pick-sixSE Louisiana · Q4 14:44
FinalSE Louisiana 38-35 UL MonroeSE Louisiana wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q462% at halfSE LouisianaUL MonroeLowest 15%High 97%Won38-3512345+22+32+21−23−42ScoresPunt return TD
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q462% at halfSE LouisianaUL MonroeLowest 15%High 97%Won38-35123ScoresPunt return TD
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q438% at halfUL MonroeSE LouisianaLowest 3%High 85%Lost35-3812345−22−32−21+23+42ScoresPunt return TD
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q438% at halfUL MonroeSE LouisianaLowest 3%High 85%Lost35-38123ScoresPunt return TD

The five plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 3:10Lowe 31-yd TD pass to Shinn, SE Louisiana goes ahead 7-0SE Louisiana 23% → 45% (+22)
  2. 2Q2 4:10Paul 17-yd TD run, SE Louisiana leads 21-6SE Louisiana 47% → 79% (+32)
  3. 3Q4 14:44InterceptionCarlisle intercepted by McKneely at the UL Monroe 11 and returned for a TDSE Louisiana 74% → 95% (+21)
  4. 4Q4 3:03Armenta 47-yd TD pass to Trujillo, cuts it to 38-35SE Louisiana 92% → 69% (−23)
  5. 5Q4 0:084th and 10Armenta incomplete to Trujillo, turnover on downsSE Louisiana 93% → 51% (−42)

The five plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 3:10Lowe 31-yd TD pass to Shinn, SE Louisiana goes ahead 7-0UL Monroe 77% → 55% (−22)
  2. 2Q2 4:10Paul 17-yd TD run, SE Louisiana leads 21-6UL Monroe 53% → 21% (−32)
  3. 3Q4 14:44InterceptionCarlisle intercepted by McKneely at the UL Monroe 11 and returned for a TDUL Monroe 26% → 5% (−21)
  4. 4Q4 3:03Armenta 47-yd TD pass to Trujillo, cuts it to 38-35UL Monroe 8% → 31% (+23)
  5. 5Q4 0:084th and 10Armenta incomplete to Trujillo, turnover on downsUL Monroe 7% → 49% (+42)
SE Louisiana’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (UL Monroe -9.5), at 17% for SE Louisiana (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

SE Louisiana scored on 4 of its 12 drives; UL Monroe on 5 of its 14.

SE Louisiana’s drives are teal, UL Monroe’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1SE Louisiana: Punt, from 83 yards out to 77PuntUL Monroe: Punt, from 67 yards out to 41PuntSE Louisiana: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownUL Monroe: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntUL Monroe: Touchdown, from 29 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2SE Louisiana: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntUL Monroe: Fumble, from 86 yards out to 66FumbleSE Louisiana: Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0TouchdownUL Monroe: Punt, from 78 yards out to 74PuntSE Louisiana: Touchdown, from 53 yards out to 0TouchdownUL Monroe: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownSE Louisiana: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 26Field goalQ3UL Monroe: Interception, from 76 yards out to 16InterceptionSE Louisiana: Punt, from 97 yards out to 78PuntUL Monroe: Punt returned for a touchdown, from 66 yards out to 71Punt TDUL Monroe: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownSE Louisiana: Punt, from 75 yards out to 49PuntQ4UL Monroe: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 90 yards out to 90Interception TDUL Monroe: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownSE Louisiana: Punt, from 75 yards out to 76PuntUL Monroe: Punt, from 89 yards out to 84PuntSE Louisiana: Punt, from 42 yards out to 42PuntUL Monroe: Touchdown, from 97 yards out to 0TouchdownSE Louisiana: Punt, from 75 yards out to 62PuntUL Monroe: Turned over on downs, from 80 yards out to 64DownsSE Louisiana: End of game, from 36 yards out to 37End of game

From UL Monroe’s side

UL Monroe’s best moment: Armenta incomplete to Trujillo, turnover on downs (Q4 0:08). It lifted UL Monroe’s win chance by 42 points.

Box score

SE Louisiana 38, UL Monroe 35

SE Louisiana covered +9.5 by 12.5. The total, 73, went over 48.5.

SE LouisianaUL MonroeTotal yardsSE Louisiana 279UL Monroe 511279511Passing yardsSE Louisiana 155UL Monroe 331155331Rushing yardsSE Louisiana 124UL Monroe 180124180First downsSE Louisiana 15UL Monroe 271527TurnoversSE Louisiana 1UL Monroe 313Time of possessionSE Louisiana 26:31UL Monroe 33:2926:3133:29
Team totalsSE LouisianaUL Monroe
Total yards279511
Passing18 of 25, 155 yds29 of 45, 331 yds
Rushing30 for 124 yds35 for 180 yds
First downs1527
Third down6 of 149 of 16
Fourth down0 of 01 of 2
Turnovers13
Penalties4 for 27 yds7 for 60 yds
Time of possession26:3133:29

SE Louisiana leaders

  • Passing Kyle Lowe 18 of 25, 155 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Chad Elzy Jr 8 for 58 yds; Deantre Jackson 10 for 46 yds
  • Receiving Lonnie Shinn 4 for 49 yds, 1 TD; Dkhai Joseph 6 for 47 yds

UL Monroe leaders

  • Passing Austin Carlisle 19 of 24, 183 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Derrick Jameson 9 for 85 yds, 2 TD; Austin Carlisle 13 for 76 yds
  • Receiving Parker Fulghum 5 for 88 yds, 1 TD; Nic Trujillo 5 for 79 yds, 2 TD

No rain through the game

97° at kickoff · no rain recorded

Warmer than every one of the 54 other games played at Malone Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 75°, with about 7 in 10 games between 67° and 83°.

September game-day temperatures at Malone Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4UL Monroe favoredSE Louisiana favored0%Win chanceUL MonroeRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airportTemperature and feels likedegrees F85°105°feels like 93°air 92°
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4UL Monroe favoredSE Louisiana favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airportTemperature and feels like · degrees F85°105°feels like 93°air 92°

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:08 left6:55 p.m.
SE Louisiana 38, UL Monroe 35 · UL Monroe 49% to win
no rain · 92°
Armenta incomplete to Trujillo, turnover on downs

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Monroe Regional airport, 2.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

SE Louisiana · 1-2

Rated 139th in our preseason ratings, 153rd now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 30-25 vs North Alabama #188 of 668

won by 5 as a 6.5-point favorite

SE Louisiana won 30-25 vs North Alabama. Chance to win started at 74%, low 32%, high better than 99%.

L 14-39 @ South Alabama #61 of 668

lost by 25 as a 13.5-point underdog

SE Louisiana lost 14-39 at South Alabama. Chance to win started at 10%, low under 1%, high 10%.

L 28-34 vs Houston Christian #229 of 668

lost by 6 as a 24.5-point favorite

SE Louisiana lost 28-34 vs Houston Christian. Chance to win started at 95%, low 3%, high 98%.

Last two games

UL Monroe · 0-2

Rated 153rd in our preseason ratings, 161st now.

Two straight losses.

L 20-26 @ UAB #58 of 668

lost by 6 as a 9.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 20-26 at UAB. Chance to win started at 22%, low under 1%, high 69%.

L 13-62 @ Mississippi StateTop 25 #129 of 668

lost by 49 as a 28.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 13-62 at Mississippi State. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 3%.

Week by week

UL Monroe

Wk 1: L 13-62 at Mississippi State▼49Mississippi StateWk 2: L 20-26 at UAB▼6UAB
  • Wk 1Lat Mississippi State13-62
  • Wk 2Lat UAB20-26

SE Louisiana

Wk 1: L 28-34 vs Houston Christian▼6Houston Christi…Wk 1: L 14-39 at South Alabama▼25South AlabamaWk 2: W 30-25 vs North Alabama▲5North Alabama
  • Wk 1Lvs Houston Christian28-34
  • Wk 1Lat South Alabama14-39
  • Wk 2Wvs North Alabama30-25

Power rating by week

SE Louisiana is rated 0.5 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-5.9-6.9-7.9Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2UL MonroeSE Louisiana

The series

SE Louisiana leads the series 6-3

9 meetings since 1975 · UL Monroe has won the last 2

UL Monroe wonSE Louisiana won1975: SE Louisiana by 301976: SE Louisiana by 41977: UL Monroe by 51978: SE Louisiana by 41979: SE Louisiana by 131980: SE Louisiana by 251981: SE Louisiana by 32010: UL Monroe by 12018: UL Monroe by 319752018
  • 2018UL Monroe 34-31UL Monroe won 34-31 vs SE Louisiana. Chance to win started at 92%, low 22%, high better than 99%.
  • 2010UL Monroe 21-20
  • 1981SE Louisiana 50-47
  • 1980SE Louisiana 55-30
  • 1979SE Louisiana 13-0

Each line is UL Monroe’s chance to win through that meeting. UL Monroe is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on UL Monroe’s chances here.

50-50Model · 62%Line · 78%SE LouisianaUL Monroe

UL Monroe favored by 9.5 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

UL Monroe by 9.5, on the usual path until Q2 8:38

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward SE Louisiana.

opened −10.5now −9.5

Spread: −10.5 → −9.5

The books’ cut: 5.0%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 96° at kickoff.

SE Louisiana at UL Monroe · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Malone Stadium, Monroe

  • 96°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 49weather score, Harsh
  • Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's eight kickoff times. At Malone Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 85, against 49 at 3:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

  • 11 am: 52, Rough
  • 11:45 am: 49, Harsh
  • 1 pm: 47, Harsh
  • 2:30 pm: 47, Harsh
  • 3:30 pm: 49, Harsh (this game)
  • 6 pm: 74, Rough
  • 6:30 pm: 83, Mixed
  • 7 pm: 85, Mixed

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

UL Monroe is worth +6.8 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 91st percentile.

38% at home, 13% on the road against FBS opponents (15-24 home, 7-46 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.6 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 168 miles to get here.

Where next