Mississippi State routs UL Monroe 62-13

Team pages: UL Monroe · Mississippi State

UL Monroe0-113
Mississippi State1-062Final
Sat, Sep 5 · Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss. · Crowd 48,771ESPNU

Mississippi State routed UL Monroe 62-13.

We had Mississippi State favored. It won.

Next: UL Monroe lost to UAB 26-20, Sat Sep 12

Next: Mississippi State beat Minnesota 38-13, Sat Sep 12

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Mississippi State a 70% chance, and the closing betting line (Mississippi State was a 28.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.

Mississippi State led by 21 after the first quarter and by 38 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+49+49
FinalMississippi State 62-13 UL MonroeMississippi State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won62-13Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won62-13Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost13-62Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost13-62Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Mississippi State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Mississippi State -28.5), at 97% for Mississippi State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Mississippi State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 12:21Taylor 6-yd TD pass to MageeMississippi State goes ahead 7-0Q1, 12:21 · Mississippi State 7, UL Monroe 07-0score after the play7-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q1, 10:20Taylor 22-yd TD pass to RaginsMississippi State leads 14-0Q1, 10:20 · Mississippi State 14, UL Monroe 014-0score after the play14-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q1, 5:58Taylor 26-yd TD runMississippi State leads 21-0Q1, 5:58 · Mississippi State 21, UL Monroe 021-0score after the play21-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 13:15Taylor 10-yd TD pass to EvansMississippi State leads 28-3Q2, 13:15 · Mississippi State 28, UL Monroe 328-3score after the play28-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q2, 0:35Gayten 14-yd TD runMississippi State leads 41-3Q2, 0:35 · Mississippi State 41, UL Monroe 341-3score after the play41-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q3, 13:36Taylor 70-yd TD pass to JohnsonMississippi State leads 48-3Q3, 13:36 · Mississippi State 48, UL Monroe 348-3score after the play48-3score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  7. Q3, 10:14Carlisle 40-yd TD pass to Jamesoncuts it to 48-10Q3, 10:14 · Mississippi State 48, UL Monroe 1048-10score after the play48-10score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  8. Q4, 7:50Hill 57-yd TD runMississippi State leads 55-13Q4, 7:50 · Mississippi State 55, UL Monroe 1355-13score after the play55-13score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Mississippi State scored on 10 of its 13 drives; UL Monroe on 3 of its 13.

Mississippi State’s drives are teal, UL Monroe’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Mississippi State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUL Monroe: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 66DownsMississippi State: Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0TouchdownUL Monroe: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66PuntMississippi State: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownUL Monroe: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 25Field goalQ2Mississippi State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUL Monroe: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntMississippi State: Field goal, from 59 yards out to 8Field goalUL Monroe: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntMississippi State: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 14Field goalUL Monroe: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntMississippi State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownUL Monroe: End of half, from 75 yards out to 70End of halfQ3UL Monroe: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntMississippi State: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownUL Monroe: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMississippi State: Punt, from 87 yards out to 65PuntUL Monroe: Field goal, from 84 yards out to 34Field goalMississippi State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 43PuntUL Monroe: Missed field goal, from 89 yards out to 22Missed FGQ4Mississippi State: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownUL Monroe: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntMississippi State: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownUL Monroe: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntMississippi State: End of game, from 53 yards out to 61End of game

Box score

Mississippi State 62, UL Monroe 13

Mississippi State covered −28.5 by 20.5. The total, 75, went over 54.5.

UL MonroeMississippi StateTotal yardsUL Monroe 278Mississippi State 762278762Passing yardsUL Monroe 140Mississippi State 417140417Rushing yardsUL Monroe 138Mississippi State 345138345First downsUL Monroe 14Mississippi State 351435TurnoversUL Monroe 0Mississippi State 000Time of possessionUL Monroe 31:47Mississippi State 28:1331:4728:13
Team totalsUL MonroeMississippi State
Total yards278762
Passing16 of 28, 140 yds27 of 42, 417 yds
Rushing40 for 138 yds37 for 345 yds
First downs1435
Third down3 of 165 of 11
Fourth down2 of 31 of 1
Turnovers00
Penalties5 for 55 yds8 for 78 yds
Time of possession31:4728:13

UL Monroe leaders

  • Passing Austin Carlisle 6 of 10, 73 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Austin Carlisle 7 for 50 yds; Bryson Roland 12 for 42 yds
  • Receiving Derrick Jameson 1 for 40 yds, 1 TD; Marcellus Jackson 6 for 37 yds

Mississippi State leaders

  • Passing Kamario Taylor 22 of 34, 354 yds, 4 TD
  • Rushing J.J. Hill 7 for 118 yds, 2 TD; Kamario Taylor 6 for 59 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Anthony Evans III 7 for 118 yds, 1 TD; Marquis Johnson 3 for 99 yds, 1 TD

Feels like 79° to 105° through the game

91° at kickoff · feels like 79° to 105° · no rain recorded

A feels-like 105° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 105°0120°
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 105°0120°

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 66 other games played at Davis Wade Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window).

September game-day temperatures at Davis Wade Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Mississippi State favoredUL Monroe favored100%Win chanceMississippi StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airportTemperature and feels likedegrees F70°105°feels like 79°air 79°
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Mississippi State favoredUL Monroe favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airportTemperature and feels like · degrees F70°105°feels like 79°air 79°

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:53 left6:36 p.m.
UL Monroe 0, Mississippi State 0 · Mississippi State 97% to win
no rain · 89°, feels like 102°
Taylor incomplete to Ragins
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Starkville airport, 3.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

UL Monroe · 3-9

Rated 153rd in our preseason ratings.

L 27-30 @ Louisiana #131 of 667

lost by 3 as a 10.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 27-30 at Louisiana. Chance to win started at 8%, low under 1%, high 73%.

L 14-31 @ Texas State #60 of 667

lost by 17 as a 20.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 14-31 at Texas State. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 13%.

L 14-26 vs South Alabama #117 of 667

lost by 12 as a 4.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 14-26 vs South Alabama. Chance to win started at 51%, low under 1%, high 89%.

L 6-31 vs Old Dominion #65 of 667

lost by 25 as a 16.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 6-31 vs Old Dominion. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 18%.

L 21-49 @ Southern Miss #86 of 667

lost by 28 as a 13.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 21-49 at Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 11%, low under 1%, high 34%.

L 14-37 vs Troy #84 of 667

lost by 23 as a 5.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 14-37 vs Troy. Chance to win started at 40%, low under 1%, high 47%.

L 8-23 @ Coastal Carolina #135 of 667

lost by 15 as a 2.5-point favorite

UL Monroe lost 8-23 at Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 46%, low under 1%, high 48%.

L 7-42 @ Northwestern #66 of 667

lost by 35 as a 13.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 7-42 at Northwestern. Chance to win started at 13%, low under 1%, high 36%.

W 28-16 vs Arkansas State #150 of 667

won by 12 as a 1.5-point favorite

UL Monroe won 28-16 vs Arkansas State. Chance to win started at 58%, low 21%, high better than 99%.

W 31-25 @ UTEP #103 of 667

won by 6 as a 5.5-point underdog

UL Monroe won 31-25 at UTEP. Chance to win started at 32%, low 16%, high better than 99%.

L 0-73 @ AlabamaTop 25 #8 of 667

lost by 73 as a 34.5-point underdog

UL Monroe lost 0-73 at Alabama. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

W 29-0 vs Saint Francis #215 of 667

won by 29 as a 30.5-point favorite

UL Monroe won 29-0 vs Saint Francis. Chance to win started at 98%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Mississippi State · 5-8

Rated 132nd in our preseason ratings.

L 29-43 vs Wake Forest #36 of 667

lost by 14 as a 3-point favorite

Mississippi State lost 29-43 vs Wake Forest. Chance to win started at 74%, low 4%, high 77%.

L 19-38 vs Ole MissTop 25 #6 of 667

lost by 19 as a 7.5-point underdog

Mississippi State lost 19-38 vs Ole Miss. Chance to win started at 38%, low under 1%, high 38%.

L 27-49 @ MissouriTop 25 #16 of 667

lost by 22 as a 7.5-point underdog

Mississippi State lost 27-49 at Missouri. Chance to win started at 24%, low under 1%, high 27%.

L 21-41 vs GeorgiaTop 25 #6 of 667

lost by 20 as a 9.5-point underdog

Mississippi State lost 21-41 vs Georgia. Chance to win started at 33%, low under 1%, high 53%.

W 38-35 @ Arkansas #29 of 667

won by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog

Mississippi State won 38-35 at Arkansas. Chance to win started at 24%, low 3%, high better than 99%.

L 38-45 vs TexasTop 25 #12 of 667

lost by 7 as an 8.5-point underdog

Mississippi State lost 38-45 vs Texas. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high better than 99%.

L 21-23 @ FloridaTop 25 #22 of 667

lost by 2 as a 9.5-point underdog

Mississippi State lost 21-23 at Florida. Chance to win started at 20%, low 4%, high 42%.

L 9-31 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #12 of 667

lost by 22 as a 17.5-point underdog

L 34-41 vs TennesseeTop 25 #9 of 667

lost by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog

Mississippi State lost 34-41 vs Tennessee. Chance to win started at 32%, low under 1%, high 82%.

W 38-10 vs Northern Illinois #116 of 667

won by 28 as a 24.5-point favorite

Mississippi State won 38-10 vs Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 96%, low 91%, high better than 99%.

W 63-0 vs Alcorn State #207 of 667

won by 63 as a 42.5-point favorite

Mississippi State won 63-0 vs Alcorn State. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

W 24-20 vs Arizona StateTop 25 #27 of 667

won by 4 as a 5.5-point underdog

Mississippi State won 24-20 vs Arizona State. Chance to win started at 39%, low 11%, high 95%.

W 34-17 @ Southern Miss #137 of 667

won by 17 as a 15.5-point favorite

Mississippi State won 34-17 at Southern Miss. Chance to win started at 81%, low 68%, high better than 99%.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Mississippi State’s success rate against UL Monroe, 75 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Mississippi State’s success rate against UL Monroe’s defense

    75 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Mississippi State offense, 79th percentile · UL Monroe defense, 4th

  2. UL Monroe’s explosive plays against Mississippi State’s defense

    70 pointsweakerstronger50th

    UL Monroe offense, 19th percentile · Mississippi State defense, 89th

  3. Mississippi State’s passing EPA against UL Monroe’s defense

    61 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Mississippi State offense, 66th percentile · UL Monroe defense, 5th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

UL MonroeMississippi State
EPA/play, offense
UL Monroe · 7Mississippi State · 61
EPA/play, defense
UL Monroe · 3Mississippi State · 29
Success rate, offense
UL Monroe · 29Mississippi State · 79
Success rate, defense
UL Monroe · 4Mississippi Sta…
Explosive-play rate, offense
UL Monroe · 19Mississippi State · 51
Explosive-play rate, defense
UL Monroe · 63Mississippi State · 89
Rush EPA, offense
UL Monroe · 5Mississippi State · 63
Rush EPA, defense
UL Monroe · 3Mississippi State · 64
Pass EPA, offense
UL Monroe · 11Mississippi State · 66
Pass EPA, defense
UL Monroe · 5Mississippi State · 24

The series

Mississippi State leads the series 4-1-1

6 meetings since 1972 · Mississippi State has won the last 2

Mississippi State wonUL Monroe won1972: Mississippi State by 351973: tie1989: Mississippi State by 141995: UL Monroe by 21996: Mississippi State by 591997: Mississippi State by 1419721997
  • 1997Mississippi State 24-10
  • 1996Mississippi State 59-0
  • 1995UL Monroe 34-32
  • 1989Mississippi State 28-14
  • 1973Tie 21-21

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Mississippi State’s chances here.

50-50Model · 70%Line · 99%UL MonroeMississippi State

Mississippi State favored by 28.5 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

Mississippi State by 28.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The books’ cut: 3.4%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 93° at kickoff.

UL Monroe at Mississippi State · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville

  • 93°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 70weather score, Rough
  • 2ndbest of the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second best of the day's seven kickoff times. At Davis Wade Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 76, against 70 at 6 pm.

  • 11 am: 36, Harsh
  • noon: 36, Harsh
  • 2:30 pm: 36, Harsh
  • 3:15 pm: 36, Harsh
  • 4 pm: 39, Harsh
  • 6 pm: 70, Rough (this game)
  • 7 pm: 76, Mixed

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Mississippi State is worth +3.5 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 38th percentile.

51% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (26-25 home, 14-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.9 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 200 miles to get here.

Where next