SEC · Kalen DeBoer, year 3 (23-8) · Bryant-Denny Stadium · 101,821 · 100,077 avg in 2026
LastW 50–36 vs Florida State · Sat Sep 19 · Keelon Russell 320 pass yds, 3 TD, 56 rush yds
Nextvs South Carolina · Sat Sep 26 · 7 pm ET · Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama by 12.5 · series 15-3, won the last 3 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #21 | #77 | -28.5✓ | East Carolina | W 48–10 122 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #21 | #100 | -9.5✓ | @Kentucky | W 45–17 127 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #20 | #93 | -18.5✗ | Florida State | W 50–36 130 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #16 | #22 | -12.5 | South Carolina | |||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #16 | #70 | @Mississippi State | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Georgia | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Tennessee | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Texas A&M | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @LSU | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Vanderbilt | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Chattanooga | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Auburn |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | Florida State | W 50–36 | 567 | 0 | 32:08 | +0.457 | 49.3% | 144.2% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Kentucky | W 45–17 | 343 | 3 | 32:14 | +0.132 | 47.6% | 110.5% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | East Carolina | W 48–10 | 487 | 1 | 38:53 | +0.292 | 52.5% | 110.7% | Best success rate |
| Season average (3 games) | 466 | 1.3 | +0.294 | 49.8% | 121.8% | ||||
Alabama is the program the sport measures itself against — now measuring a new coach against six Saban titles, and a 38-3 Playoff humbling against the only standard it knows.
Every loss now feeds the same eulogy — that the dynasty died with Saban and DeBoer is presiding over the decline. The fanbase has heard the program written off before, and isn't ready to concede it.
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 11-4 · last season
✓ measured from 15 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Warming. 7-3 over the last 10, and won the last three.
He wasn’t able to finish. Nothing from an injury standpoint. It just wasn’t able to go at the end there in the fourth quarter, which is disappointing
Next Sep 26
vs South Carolina · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
the open questiondoes the recruiting haul translate on the field?
Ezavier Crowell (RB, #14 nationally) headlines a class that continues DeBoer's fifth straight top-5 haul — a program measured against all others, yet facing 10 NFL exits and a fanbase surging with delusional optimism.
our readfront page
Keelon Russell (#2 QB nationally) arrives as Alabama's fifth straight top-5 class tackles 10 NFL exits and Auburn outrecruiting them for the first time since 2018.
our readfront page
Kalen DeBoer begins his third season at Alabama, inheriting a 11-4 winning record but facing unease among fans who remain 40 points ahead of the market's expectations.
our readdeveloping
Alabama dropped 16 spots in SP+ — the gap between its No. 20 ranking and 11-4 record raises questions about whether Kalen DeBoer can recalibrate a program that still defines college football's standard.
our readbackground
Daniel Hill: a closer signal screened this season.
our readbackground
Germie Bernard sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
our readbackground
Josh Cuevas is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Kevin Riley: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
our readbackground
Lotzeir Brooks is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
Outcome band · Alabama · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Alabama signed a top-3 recruiting class. It is the program's fifth straight top-5 recruiting class. Top 3 means the talent case is made. Whether the staff develops it is the open question. The bulls are loud — the coverage treats this class as a program-level statement.
The optimistic read: the class is real, the program is a destination again.
The 'rankings don't tell the whole story' counter -- development gaps, position holes still open.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 270 of 9245 board posts (3%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (50 posts): 10% positive · 82% neutral · 8% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Alabama enters 2026 rated No. 20 in 2025 SP+ (+14.8), down 16 spots from 2024. A top-25 rating means the tape backed the ranking over three seasons. Now the schedule tests whether it still does. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 799 of 9245 board posts (9%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (50 posts): 10% positive · 82% neutral · 8% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Alabama is the program the rest of college football measures itself against.
The program ledger
since 2025Alabama guard out for Kentucky game
Ten gone to the draft and now the offensive line is already taking hits before Kentucky even kicks off — DeBoer's depth chart is getting stress-tested fast.
Alabama names 3 captains
DeBoer's first real leadership layer takes shape — 10 draft exits punched holes everywhere, so who owns the locker room matters more than usual heading into Week 1 against ECU.
Keelon Russell named Alabama QB1
Ten gone to the draft and DeBoer needed a name on the board — Russell winning the QB1 job settles the loudest open question on a roster still rebuilding its skill layer around a #2 class.
Alabama names starting kicker
Special teams depth rarely makes national headlines at Alabama, but 10 gone to the draft means every competition for a starting role carries weight — the kicker job is locked, and one less question mark is what DeBoer actually needs right now.
Alabama names ILB starter
Ten gone to the draft and the linebacker depth chart still sorting itself out — locking in a starter here is DeBoer stabilizing the middle before fall camp chaos sets in.
Alabama names Keelon Russell QB1
Russell won the room on tape, not pedigree — DeBoer's QB coach didn't hand him the job, he earned it inside a program still sorting out what 10 draft exits actually broke.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
AL leads the 2026 class with 9 commits. National footprint reaching 11 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
107 signees across 24 states, 2023-2026. AL leads the pull.
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Alabama player grew up 207 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Bryant-Denny Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 123 of 127 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
34th percentile among FBS programs
68 of 68 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 3 (2026) — from #7, Dave Preston (WTOP Radio), to #15, Bob Asmussen (Champaign News-Gazette).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 3, 2026 — 68 voters tracked.
31% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — running hot vs. the ~19% league average.
5 interceptions of 16 disrupted passes (11 deflected, 5 intercepted), 2026 only.
21 penalties committed, 21 drawn on opponents — netting a 42-yard field-position edge.
129 penalty yards committed vs. 171 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · Alabama · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026