Alabama11-4CFP #93Ezavier Crowell (RB, #14 nationally) headlines a class that continues DeBoer's fifth straight top-5 haul — a program measured against all others, yet facing 10 NFL exits and a fanbase surging with delusional optimism.
Alabama is the program the sport measures itself against — now measuring a new coach against six Saban titles, and a 38-3 Playoff humbling against the only standard it knows.
Every loss now feeds the same eulogy — that the dynasty died with Saban and DeBoer is presiding over the decline. The fanbase has heard the program written off before, and isn't ready to concede it.
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs East Carolina · Sat Sep 5 · 16:00 UTC
Alabama is the program the rest of college football measures itself against.
With a #2 recruiting class and significant roster turnover, Alabama faces both opportunity and risk in 2026.
Bryant-Denny is dark; the process is not.
the open questiondoes the recruiting haul translate on the field?
Keelon Russell (#2 QB nationally) arrives as Alabama's fifth straight top-5 class tackles 10 NFL exits and Auburn outrecruiting them for the first time since 2018.
Alabama dropped 16 spots in SP+ — the gap between its No. 20 ranking and 11-4 record raises questions about whether Kalen DeBoer can recalibrate a program that still defines college football's standard.
Ezavier Crowell (RB, #14 nationally) headlines a class that continues DeBoer's fifth straight top-5 haul — a program measured against all others, yet facing 10 NFL exits and a fanbase surging with delusional optimism.
Kalen DeBoer's second season at Alabama begins with a 11-4 record and a coordinator reshaping key units, yet fan optimism outpaces the market's cautious projection.
Daniel Hill: a closer signal screened this season.
Germie Bernard sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
Josh Cuevas is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Kevin Riley: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
Lotzeir Brooks is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Kalen DeBoer begins his second season at Alabama, inheriting a 11-4 winning record and a program that remains the standard against which college football measures itself.
4-star LB commits to Alabama
Ten players drafted out and the linebacker room still needs bodies — DeBoer's top-2 class keeps stacking, and this one fills a gap the draft exodus made real.
Jackson Lloyd named Alabama LT starter
Locking down the blindside after 10 players walked into April's draft — Lloyd stepping into the LT job is the first real answer to Alabama's most uncomfortable offseason question.
SEC shifts to 9-game schedule
Nine SEC games now instead of eight — with 10 players drafted out and a WR room still under construction, DeBoer's margin for a soft non-conference breather just got cut in half.
4-star OL commits to Alabama
Ten players drafted out of Tuscaloosa and DeBoer's still stacking the class — landing Anthony Bl over Ohio State in the 2028 cycle tells you the recruiting engine didn't skip a beat after the coaching transition.
LB commits to Alabama
Ten players gone to the draft and the LB room still needs bodies who can play in Year 2 of DeBoer's system — this commit is depth that could push fast in a room without a settled depth chart yet.
Osani Gayles commits to Alabama
Ten players drafted out and the WR room still needs bodies that can separate — Gayles lands in a top-3 class that's patching real holes, not just stacking stars.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2025
28th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Alabama · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Alabama signed a top-3 recruiting class. It is the program's fifth straight top-5 recruiting class. Top 3 means the talent case is made. Whether the staff develops it is the open question. National coverage is split on what the ranking actually signals for this program.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The optimistic read: the class is real, the program is a destination again.
The 'rankings don't tell the whole story' counter -- development gaps, position holes still open.
This event was in 110 of 1645 board posts (7%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (984 posts): 14% positive · 56% neutral · 30% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Alabama enters 2026 rated No. 20 in 2025 SP+ (+14.8), down 16 spots from 2024. A top-25 rating means the tape backed the ranking over three seasons. Now the schedule tests whether it still does. The skeptics have specifics: the schedule, the departures, the pieces the model can't see.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 368 of 1645 board posts (22%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (984 posts): 14% positive · 56% neutral · 30% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Opens Sep 5
vs East Carolina · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
AL leads the 2026 class with 9 commits. National footprint reaching 11 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
107 signees across 25 states, 2023-2026. AL leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
66 of 66 AP voters have them ranked, final AP ballot (2025) — from #7, David Jablonski (Dayton Daily News), to #16, Michael Lev (Arizona Daily Star).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, final AP ballot, 2025 — 66 voters tracked.
14 games with TV coverage: 12 national broadcast, 1 ESPN, 1 conference network
Kickoff windows: 2 noon, 6 afternoon, 6 primetime
22% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~51% league baseline.
2 of 9 own fumbles recovered themselves; 9 of 17 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
19% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
9 interceptions of 47 disrupted passes (38 deflected, 9 intercepted), 2025 only.
67 penalties committed, 85 drawn on opponents — netting a 196-yard field-position edge.
591 penalty yards committed vs. 787 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 12 corners
The split, staged
How Alabama fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 12 corners of the fanbase
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
Fan reads
Alabama is securing key commitments for its 2027 and 2028 recruiting classes, which could help offset recent roster…
Can Alabama sustain its recruiting success into future classes?
If Alabama ends up being bad for a few years that okay it'll just make my cfb 27 dynasty rebuilds more funYouTube · BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
So these recruits are using a team that in 2 out of it's last 3 games rushed for negative 3 yards in one & lost another by 35 as leverage? Just call it like it is, Alabama can't afford top flight talent anymore. Shula days incoming.YouTube · BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
The team’s ability to replace key players will determine its defensive strength in 2026.
How will Alabama’s outside linebackers fill the void left by NFL Draft losses?
Kyle Alabama needs Elite LBs and defensive lineman all those sexy skill positions won't matter without tough talented d lineman because other teams will push us around and run the ball down our throatsYouTube · BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
What the latest on monshon sales and Antwan Jackson Jr hate it we missed on John Merritt n other u think we going take 3 wide receiver any offense lineman or defensive lineman Alabama trending forYouTube · BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
~ our readAlabama fans are down on the program, and they're pointing to real stats and results to back it up — more than most fanbases right now.
✓ counted We read 984 posts from Alabama fans this week.
Fan mood across the 2025 season, both sides — our read
Shaded weeks show whose fanbase read warmer, our measure of what fans actually said, not a poll.
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
I didn't like what Kalen DeBoer said at SEC Media Day. He didn't sound confident at all and that's why teams don't fear Bama anymore
I'm still not convinced Kalen DeBoer is the right coach for Alabama. He's too soft and makes a lot of mistakes. I think giving him a second contract was a mistake.
Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Jul 24, 2026–Jul 27, 2026 · via BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
Dont sleep on #MonshunSales to Bama also. I say they going to be the new rideouts Cedrick Simmons, Osani Gayles & Monshun Sales.
Monshun sales committing to bama would be a big morale boost and momentum changer.
Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Jul 9, 2026–Jul 15, 2026 · via BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR MIND! Ryan Grubb! The man whose offense completely abandoned the run, left his quarterbacks exposed like sitting ducks, and ran one of the most chaotic, unbalanced schemes the Capstone has seen this century. You think an elite recruit is watching a fourth-and-one jet sweep get stuffed five yards in the backfield and saying, "Sign me up." PLEASE! It is nonsensical! It is hysterical! Well, that Alabama quarterback room isn't going to be tight it's going to be completely empty after they all transfer! Wake up, Bama!
Grubb needs to be on the hot seat if he doesn’t find a way to run the football. We have to be done with the gadget place and maybe the RPO option is something that we need to look at. We can’t be one dimensional and expect to win at a high-level. Let’s go family. This is Alabama. Roll tide
Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Jul 9, 2026–Jul 11, 2026 · via BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
I don’t remember when Nick Saban was there anybody any team talking bad about Alabama when they were dominating everybody?
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 25, 2026 · via BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
Well i guess that means we have to start dominate every play and every time we can't afford to let the other team beat us no matter who we're playing against LEAVE NO DOUBT against everyone we play you already know what people are saying they're that Alabama ain't what they were when nick Saban was our coach well guess i want Alabama to play aggressive everytime on offense and defense against everyone everytime its time we prove everyone else wrong this year or next year so everyone can stop talking crap about Alabama and Debor and the only way to do that is winning the national championship in 2026 or 2027 ROLL TIDE everyone. 😊
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 21, 2026 · via BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
I'm sorry.... Alabama has no standard anymore. They are starting at square 1 now with coach Kalen Debore. They have no OL, no DL, no Secondary and no run game. All they do is score a lot of points and hope the other team can't catch up. 🇺🇸🫡🧑🏭
Yes, so far into the Deboer era Bama isnt making their asses quit!!! He is Kalen "please play good for me" Deboer!! Unlike Saban and many of the coaches from the Saban coaching tree Deboer is obviously not capable of demanding and getting the best desire and effort from the Bama roster!!!! The Bama Standard is now just a flicker and as a lifelong diehard Bama fan this is what infuriates me!!! Win, lose, or draw just play your ass off like Bama has for the last 20 years!!!
Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Jul 17, 2026–Jul 21, 2026 · via Alabama Crimson Tide on AL.com, BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
Mack lacks touch wich will get bama killed in bigger games, if he develops his touch pass and bama has a lot better run game he could be great. Russell just has so much more than Mack that it’ll be hard to sit him with a year in the system unless Mack just improves a lot from his bad showings.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 18, 2026 · via BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
He is Kalen "please play good for me" Deboer!! Unlike Saban and many of the coaches from the Saban coaching tree Deboer is obviously not capable of demanding and getting the best desire and effort from the Bama roster!!!!
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 17, 2026 · via Alabama Crimson Tide on AL.com
If Kalen or Courtney were in the NFL as GM's they would have already been fired based on the horrid portal signings we have had the last 2 years.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 16, 2026 · via BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
2027 recruiting class scared Alabama fans.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 14, 2026 · via BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
BAMA IS DOING WHAT WE CALLED MISCONCEPTION IN FULL EFFECT.....BAMA MAY SHOW BEING BROKE...THAT IS THE PLAN LET EVERYONE WRITE BAMA IS DONE...BAMA IS NO MORE......PLAY DEAD AND WHEN SOMEONE GETS CLOSE BAMA WILL ATTACK BACK...AND WHEN THEY DO..ROLLLLLL TIDE
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 14, 2026 · via BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
If ryan has a good season and comes back next season and really shows out he's a definite lock for the 1st round in the draft!!
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 12, 2026 · via BAMA FOOTBALL ON YOUTUBE WITH KYLE HENDERSON
“> Just because I watch Sun Belt football does not mean my dick doesn’t work Well said u/SmallToblerone”— r/CFB
“Did the refs keep them from accruing only 15 yards of offense the entire second half until the last drive?”— r/CFB
“Did not expect Vandys defense to be so tough. GGs Vandy. Yall the real deal as expected”— r/CFB
“Fun fact: Kentucky has only ever won 4 SEC games in the state of Alabama. All of them have been against Auburn.”— r/CFB
“Torre wins 3 in a row and 4 in 5 years and the one time in the post-1926 history of the MLB when the Yankees winning would have been okay they lose”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Alabama · high confidence
No financial relationship with any outlet listed. If we have a reporter wrong or missing, please let us know.
“Kalen DeBoer one of 20 named to Dodd Trophy preseason watch list submitted by /u/DoctorWhosOnFirst [link] [comments]”
I mean I have to agree with Paul because Deboer hasn't done anything to prove us wrong
Kalen DeBoer is a complete failure and will NEVER be a winner at Alabama, and I am a huge Alabama
Finebaum speaketh with forked tongue...He says DeBoer is good enough coach to win a Natty just not at Alabama. What kind of stupid reasoning
Kyle you talk about people don't appreciate what Deboer has done he hasn't done nothing just because Bama made the playoffs and beat Oklahoma
Paul Finebaum is absolutely right Deboer is not an SEC type coach because you must be able to run the ball in order to win
Deboer inherits this.. and in 2 years goes 2 deep in playoffs.. the real story should be
DeBoer's gonna stick him in first. Peace 🤘🍻💨💨
DeBoer, but the reality is in the past we had to turn to NFL coaches (Saban & Stallings)
This QB group reminds me of the Nick saban teams.
Imagine being ranked and losing to Vandy
20 safeties that’s a really good defense
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Surgeon · +0.38 EPA/play | 15 | 15 | 305 / 473 | 64.5 | 3567 #11 FBS | 7.5 | 28 #12 FBS | 5 | 145.2 | 72.1 | 7.4 | 5.2 | |
Yards by week → Pocket Surgeon· Money-downHigh-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation. saves his best for the money downs Watch-list name — on at least one major award watch list, no hardware yet — trending, not yet confirmed. 12 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Completion %68.5% 81th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate1.1% 89th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 8th percentile to the 95th among FBS QBs | |||||||||||||
| +0.55 EPA/play | 10 | 4 | 24 / 32 | 75 | 228 | 7.1 | 2 | 0 | 155.5 | 64.9 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| 12 | 2 | 11 / 15 | 73.3 | 143 | 9.5 | 2 | 0 | 197.4 | 74.0 | — | — | ||
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.01 EPA/play | 26 | 11 | 130 | 504 | 3.9 | 3 | 24 | 8.4 | 11.3 | 15.5 | 8.5 | 5.3% (25/470) | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight221 lb 84th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate2.3% bottom 23th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jamarion Miller's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Power Back · +0.06 EPA/play | 4 | 12 | 75 | 284 | 3.8 | 6 | 30 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 21.4 | 7.1 | 7.0% (33/470) | |
Yards by week → Power BackShort-yardage and goal-line specialist. Carries the load, owns the red zone. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 10 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush TD rate8.0% 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share27.2% 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 54th percentile among FBS RBs, up from the 2nd | |||||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.02 EPA/play | 28 | 10 | 59 | 224 | 3.8 | 2 | 22 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 15.8 | 8.8 | 4.7% (22/470) | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share24.4% 98th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry4.6 bottom 28th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kevin Riley's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.00 EPA/play | 9 | 4 | 23 | 64 | 2.8 | 2 | 9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.62 EPA/play | 5 | 14 | 64 | 862 #50 FBS | 13.5 | 7 #38 FBS | 43 | 17.5 | 15.1 | 21.5% (101/470) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.8 65th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume64 94th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Germie Bernard's full player page | |||||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.67 EPA/play | 2 | 12 | 49 | 689 | 14.1 | 4 | 75 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 14.7% (69/470) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume49 78th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.7 77th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ryan Williams's full player page | |||||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +1.00 EPA/play | 1 | 14 | 42 | 511 | 12.2 | 8 #23 FBS | 37 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 11.3% (53/470) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball Target· Money-downWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. The rare part: he finds the end zone — and every touch moves the offense, too 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate19.0% 96th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.0 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.48 EPA/play | 17 | 13 | 32 | 441 | 13.8 | 2 | 53 | 8.7 | 10.7 | 10.2% (48/470) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception15.8 72th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate6.2% bottom 35th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Lotzeir Brooks's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.57 EPA/play | 80 | 12 | 37 | 411 | 11.1 | 4 | 32 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 11.1% (52/470) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception12.3 65th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume37 90th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 89th percentile among FBS TEs, up from the 52nd | |||||||||||
| Move TE · +0.81 EPA/play | 81 | 9 | 11 | 150 | 13.6 | 1 | 30 | 2.8 | 1.3 | — | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. 34 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception16.5 95th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume11 bottom 18th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint View Kaleb Edwards's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.58 EPA/play | 11 | 6 | 11 | 98 | 8.9 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 3.8 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.78 EPA/play | 7 | 10 | 5 | 71 | 14.2 | 1 | 25 | 8.7 | 3.6 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.29 EPA/play | 14 | 3 | 7 | 57 | 8.1 | 0 | 12 | 8.1 | 6.5 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 22 | 13 | 40 | 25 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.0% 51th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 17th to 63rd to 83rd percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 23 | 11 | 26 | 16 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 2 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 86th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 38th percentile to the 63rd among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 94 | 10 | 20 | 11 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Edric Hill's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 90 | 10 | 17 | 13 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate8.8% bottom 27th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View London Simmons's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 96 | 9 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.8% 67th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score now sits at the 36th percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 66th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 11 | 12 | 16 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 4-star, 2023 class our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 63rd percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 14th | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 31 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.1% 81th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Keon Keeley's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 17 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate30.0% 95th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kelby Collins's full player page | |||||||
| 88 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | — | 14 | 80 | 45 | 35 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.0% 80th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume80 85th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Deontae Lawson's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 10 | 13 | 79 | 48 | 31 | 6.5 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.3% 91th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume79 84th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 60th to 91st percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 41 | 13 | 54 | 33 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.6% 85th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 94th percentile to the 46th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Thumper | 42 | 14 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 14.5 #25 FBS | 8 #27 FBS | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The rare part: he lives in the backfield — and he ranges sideline to sideline, too 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.9% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Solo tackle rate0.8 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Yhonzae Pierre's full player page | |||||||||
| 4 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 30 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 18 | 15 | 74 | 8 #45 FBS | 4 #23 FBS | 4.5 | 2 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.8% 65th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Brayson Hubbard's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 13 | 52 | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | 2 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · junior View Keon Sabb's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 14 | 39 | 6 | 2 | 2.5 | 0 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 14 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 5-star, 2024 class our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 60th percentile among FBS Ss to the 82nd | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 12 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior our readFading: his CFB Index score now sits at the 20th percentile among FBS Ss, up from the 82nd | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 5 | 14 | 32 | 5 | 2 | 4.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate15.6% 85th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Dijon Lee Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 16 | 11 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.0% bottom 30th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Rydarrius Morgan's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 7 | 9 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior View Dashawn Jones's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 12 | 10 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.6% bottom 37th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Zavier Mincey's full player page | |||||||
| 13 | 6 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 9 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 31 | 15 | 16/23 | 69.6 | 48/48 | 96 | 46 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 38 | 13 | 52 | 2201 | 42.3 | 60 | 17 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.48 EPA/play | 17 | 13 | 15 | 283 | 18.9 | 0 | 25 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.78 EPA/play | 7 | 10 | 19 | 168 | 8.8 | 0 | 36 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+21 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #8 | #110 | -13.5 | @Florida State | L 17–31 135 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #12 | #128 | -34.5 | UL Monroe | W 73–0 119 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #10 | #54 | -19.5 | Wisconsin | W 38–14 103 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #12 | #4 | +2 | @GeorgiaTop 10 win | W 24–21 130 | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #6 | #26 | -13.5 | VanderbiltTop 25 win | W 30–14 122 | 4-1 | 2-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #4 | #17 | -3 | @MissouriTop 25 win | W 27–24 130 | 5-1 | 3-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #6 | #18 | -8.5 | TennesseeTop 25 win | W 37–20 138 | 6-1 | 4-0 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #4 | #42 | -11.5 | @South Carolina | W 29–22 136 | 7-1 | 5-0 |
| 11 | Nov 9 | #6 | #23 | -10 | LSU | W 20–9 120 | 8-1 | 6-0 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #7 | #19 | -6.5 | Oklahoma | L 21–23 126 | 8-2 | 6-1 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #8 | #240 | -54.5 | Eastern Illinois | W 56–0 79 | 9-2 | 6-1 |
| 14 | Nov 30 | #6 | #26 | -7 | @Auburn | W 27–20 148 | 10-2 | 7-1 |
| Conference Championship | ||||||||
| 15 | Dec 6 | #7 | #8 | +1.5 | Georgia (N) | L 7–28 122 | 10-3 | 7-2 |
| College Football Playoff | ||||||||
| 17 | Dec 20 | #11 | #19 | +2.5 | @Oklahoma | W 34–24 | 11-3 | 8-2 |
| 18 | Jan 1 | #9 | #5 | +7.5 | Indiana (N) | L 3–38 | 11-4 | 8-2 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1 | Indiana | L 3–38 | — | — | — | -0.116 | 35.3% | 101.8% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Dec 20 | @Oklahoma | W 34–24 | — | — | — | +0.089 | 26.8% | 182.9% | Most explosive |
| Dec 6 | Georgia | L 7–28 | 209 | 1 | 23:08 | -0.064 | 29.3% | 130.2% | |
| Nov 30 | @Auburn | W 27–20 | 280 | 0 | 34:29 | +0.006 | 34.2% | 98.1% | One-score win |
| Nov 22 | Eastern Illinois | W 56–0 | 539 | 2 | 38:09 | +0.407 | 65.0% | 98.0% | Best success rate |
| Nov 15 | Oklahoma | L 21–23 | 406 | 3 | 34:28 | +0.105 | 44.9% | 120.7% | One-score loss |
| Nov 9 | LSU | W 20–9 | 344 | 1 | 28:11 | +0.045 | 34.4% | 146.0% | |
| Oct 25 | @South Carolina | W 29–22 | 325 | 2 | 27:22 | +0.199 | 42.4% | 134.4% | One-score win |
| Oct 18 | Tennessee | W 37–20 | 373 | 1 | 31:04 | +0.301 | 50.8% | 112.6% | |
| Oct 11 | @Missouri | W 27–24 | 326 | 1 | 38:33 | +0.132 | 40.0% | 121.9% | One-score win |
| Oct 4 | Vanderbilt | W 30–14 | 486 | 1 | 37:23 | +0.331 | 49.3% | 132.5% | |
| Sep 27 | @Georgia | W 24–21 | 397 | 0 | 35:36 | +0.244 | 40.3% | 137.6% | One-score win |
| Sep 13 | Wisconsin | W 38–14 | 454 | 0 | 28:56 | +0.541 | 53.8% | 145.6% | |
| Sep 6 | UL Monroe | W 73–0 | 583 | 0 | 34:14 | +0.729 | 58.0% | 146.0% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 30 | @Florida State | L 17–31 | 341 | 0 | 29:38 | +0.100 | 37.5% | 136.6% | |
| Season average (15 games) | 389 | 0.9 | +0.203 | 42.8% | 129.7% | ||||
Alabama fields a strong pass-first offense behind an elite defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
58th percentile quality, 17th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 60th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 46th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
47th percentile success on standard downs, 76th on passing downs — a 29-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 86th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 25th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.20; 74th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 4: 0.46 raw vs. 0.11 adjusted.
Alabama reads strongest in success rate allowed (top 14%) and epa allowed (top 19%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where Alabama sits at the 11th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Alabama
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Alabama · 2018-present
94% home win rate vs 78% on the road. margin runs +15.2 better at home. Bryant-Denny Stadium seats 101,821, averaging 98% full (99,803 attendance, 28 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Jamarion Miller and Daniel Hill split the carries (129/204 vs 75/204) -- but Daniel Hill leads on every measured axis. This isn't a split role, it's a hierarchy with a change-of-pace back behind it.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Germie Bernard (WR) and Josh Cuevas (TE) split the targets (95/144 vs 49/144) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 15 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 15 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Alabama’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.3% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 159-play sample) — mid-pack, 56 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Historical echo
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
73°F average kickoff temp; 2% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 82 home games with weather data.
3 titles, 8 CFP appearances across 12 seasons — the era the program defined.
Alabama's 2014–2025 record is 144-21 with 8 CFP appearances and 3 national titles. The era closed the program's question of whether this program could still reach the room where the sport ends — by being in that room.
Week-by-week rivalry heat isn't tracked yet for this matchup — check back as the 2026-27 season approaches and real fan-intel signal accumulates.
Who's more worked up right now
Cross-fanbase rivalry sentiment for this matchup hasn't been measured yet this week — both sides show as neutral until real signal comes in.
THE LAST 5 · year-by-year
All-Time Record
since 1902 · 122 seasons · .734 win rate
Six national titles. A 38-3 semifinal blowout at the hands of Indiana. And a third-year head coach who hasn't won one. Alabama has never been this interesting.
The Standard is not a motivational poster in a weight room at Alabama — it's the operating system. Eighteen claimed national titles, six under Saban, the houndstooth crowd that shows up at road games as though Bryant's ghost demands the road trip: Alabama is what college football looks like when the program and the standard are the same noun.
Entering Year Three, Kalen DeBoer is 20-8 — which would be a renovation project anywhere else and is a pressure cooker here. The 2025 Playoff run ended in a 38-3 knockout at the hands of eventual champion Indiana. In Tuscaloosa, that scoreline has the weight of evidence. National analysts are openly writing the tenure-pressure piece. The internal fracture is clean: one faction argues the standard takes a beat to rebuild and DeBoer has earned time; the other says "this is Alabama" cannot coexist with a 38-3 semifinal.
The 2026 season is DeBoer's clearest referendum. Not the question of whether Alabama is good — they'll be good; the depth is real, the recruiting has stayed top-five nationally — but whether good is Alabama. That's the question 2026 will answer, in SEC stadiums where opponents have started believing they can win.
Dynastic-process football: the Saban years built the template — pro-style blocking schemes, physical SEC-trained offensive line, a defensive scheme rotating elite transfers and developed depth. DeBoer has layered a spread-RPO system over that base, which creates a transitional product — more QB-run options, faster tempo, still the trench identity underneath. The fanbase is educated on this tension and watches the offensive line health as the leading indicator.
Alabama 2016–2025. Slipping -1.6 rungs across the last 10 seasons. Slope -0.35 rungs / year — moving down the prestige scale.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 11-4 · CFP #9 / AP #11
Alabama: Top 15 nationally. NY6-bowl conversation.
SEC Standing · 2025
Alabama is 2nd in the SEC at 8-2. 1 team above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ole Miss | 8-1 |
| 2 | Alabama | 8-2 |
| 3 | Georgia | 8-2 |
| 4 | Texas A&M | 7-1 |
| 5 | Texas | 6-2 |
| 6 | Vanderbilt | 6-2 |
| 7 | Oklahoma | 6-3 |
| 8 | Missouri | 4-4 |
| 9 | Tennessee | 4-4 |
| 10 | LSU | 3-5 |
| 11 | Florida | 2-6 |
| 12 | Kentucky | 2-6 |
| 13 | Auburn | 1-7 |
| 14 | Mississippi State | 1-7 |
| 15 | South Carolina | 1-7 |
| 16 | Arkansas | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · Alabama
Kalen DeBoer in year 3 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Things this fanbase does every Saturday — none of them invented in the last decade.
since 1970
Crimson Tide fans sing the cheer taunting the just-defeated opponent. Once considered too brash for league play, now a definitive Alabama victory ritual that echoes from Bryant-Denny across the SEC.
since 1926
Written for the 1925 Rose Bowl trip. Defines pre-snap Bryant-Denny atmosphere. The Million Dollar Band's pregame T-formation closes with this song.
since 1981
Players walk single-file from locker room to field tunnel. Adopted under Bear Bryant's later years; refined by Saban into the modern ritual.
since 2003
Tuscaloosa-based military flyover at major home games. Coordinated with Maxwell Air Force Base. The kind of pageantry that signals 'this game matters.'
since 1929
Marching band performance with crimson-and-houndstooth uniform tradition. 'Big Al' the elephant mascot leads the formation; the band's iconic T-formation closes the show.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1979
Five national titles between 1961 and 1979 under Bear Bryant — the last a 12-0 season, and the standard every Alabama coach since has been measured against
13-0 under Gene Stallings — proof Alabama could still win it all without Bryant
2009
The start of the Process dynasty
2012
Nick Saban won it again in 2011 and 2012 — the Process at its peak
2013
Auburn returns a missed field goal to win the Iron Bowl — the program's signature heartbreak
Wound
Moment of the Year · Alabama · 2025
Week 18 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — loss 38-3 (away). Last 5 postseason: 2-3.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–202644 picks last 5 cycles, including 12 in round 1. Top recruit destination + development pipeline.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Ryan Grubb — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Alabama · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Alabama · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Alabama
Season Standing · 2025 · 11-4 · CFP #9 / AP #11
Coaching Era · Alabama
Moment of the Year · Alabama · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline