Alabama 45-17 Kentucky (Sep 12, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Alabama · Kentucky

No. 12 Alabama2-045

Kentucky1-117Final

Sat, Sep 12 · Kroger Field, Lexington, Ky. · Crowd 61,820

No. 12 Alabama routed Kentucky 45-17.

We had Alabama favored. It won.

Next: Alabama beat Florida State 50-36, Sat Sep 19

Next: Kentucky beat Texas A&M 31-21, Sat Sep 19

Top comment in the game thread

Irrelevant but that was just as much a catch as the other one

Q2 11:59 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 12

How it swung

The turning point: Minchey intercepted by Metz at the UK34 and returned for a TD, ties it 7-7 (Q1, 6:35). Alabama went from 42% to 68% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Alabama a 73% chance, and the closing betting line (Alabama was a 9.5-point favorite) put it at 78%.

Pick-six

Kentucky · Q1 10:11Pick-six

Alabama · Q1 6:35

FinalAlabama 45-17 KentuckyAlabama wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 10:11InterceptionRussell intercepted by Humphrey-Grace at the Alabama 2 and returned for a TDAlabama 66% → 45% (−21)
2Q1 6:35InterceptionMinchey intercepted by Metz at the UK34 and returned for a TD, ties it 7-7Alabama 42% → 68% (+26)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 10:11InterceptionRussell intercepted by Humphrey-Grace at the Alabama 2 and returned for a TDKentucky 34% → 55% (+21)
2Q1 6:35InterceptionMinchey intercepted by Metz at the UK34 and returned for a TD, ties it 7-7Kentucky 58% → 32% (−26)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 11:59Fans criticize inconsistent catch rulings and flag calls during Alabama's second quarter driveQuoted at the top of the page.lmao somehow that's not a catch but the fumble wasr/CFB game thread
Q2 0:36Fans argue as Kentucky coach Stein complains and officials throw a late flagOH MY GOD OUR COACH ARUGED SUCCESSFULLY FOR A FLAGr/CFB game threadSo they didn’t throw the flag until the Kentucky coach complained? Then they were like “oh you know what I think I will”r/CFB game thread
Q3 0:48Officials overturn Hill's touchdown, sparking outrage from fans across the SECSo the refs gave Kentucky a gifted touchdown and took away one of ours.. cool cool coolr/CFB game thread

Alabama’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Alabama -9.5), at 65% for Alabama (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Kentucky or Alabama flair (1,039 and 2,170); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Alabama’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Alabama scored on 7 of its 12 drives; Kentucky on 2 of its 12.

Alabama’s drives are teal, Kentucky’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Kentucky’s side

Kentucky’s best moment: Russell intercepted by Humphrey-Grace at the Alabama 2 and returned for a TD (Q1 10:11). It lifted Kentucky’s win chance by 21 points.

How Kentucky fans took it: “Good game Tide, as a Kentucky fan we’ve got some stuff to be happy with. Again to the majority cool Bama fans here, always a pleasure & best of luck this year.” r/CFB game thread

“There we go. I’m ready to become insufferable again.”

An Alabama fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans peaked in the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was loud.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Alabama fans

refs“Defensive hold on an inside run, 2nd defensive hold that was even more egregious, and then that. My god, refs in midseason form.”

grubb“I’m positive Ryan Grubb would try and use a hammer to hit in a screw instead of going to get a drill”

run“Defensive hold on an inside run, 2nd defensive hold that was even more egregious, and then that. My god, refs in midseason form.”

Kentucky fans

stoops“Stoops refusal to throw to tight ends was inexplicable. He was stuck in the nineties seeing them as additional blockers.”

gassed“Defense - gassed Offense - UK offense That's a wrap folks, see ya next week”

take“Seeing the running back take off running after being tapped down was funny af”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: half, now, field, don.

Too close to call on 62% of plays.

What it cost

Alabama’s chance to make the playoff rose from 49% to 53%.

Make the playoff

Alabama · won49% → ▲53%

Kentucky · lost9% → ▼6%

Win the conference

Alabama · won9% → ▲11%

Kentucky · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Alabama 45, Kentucky 17

Alabama covered −9.5 by 18.5. The total, 62, went over 47.5.

Team totals	Alabama	Kentucky
Total yards	343	209
Passing	16 of 23, 188 yds	18 of 32, 146 yds
Rushing	40 for 155 yds	32 for 63 yds
First downs	21	14
Third down	5 of 11	1 of 14
Fourth down	1 of 1	2 of 4
Turnovers	3	3
Penalties	8 for 45 yds	8 for 70 yds
Time of possession	32:14	27:46

Alabama leaders

Passing Keelon Russell 16 of 23, 188 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Daniel Hill 18 for 104 yds, 1 TD; Trae'shawn Brown 5 for 22 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Lotzeir Brooks 5 for 54 yds; Rico Scott 3 for 44 yds, 1 TD

Kentucky leaders

Passing Kenny Minchey 18 of 31, 146 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Jason Patterson 11 for 53 yds; CJ Baxter Jr. 11 for 29 yds
Receiving Willie Rodriguez 8 for 49 yds; Kenny Darby 5 for 45 yds

No rain and calm

83° at kickoff · no rain on radar during play · wind 7 mph from the south, gusts to 18

September game-day temperatures at Kroger Field

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 6:35 left4:07 p.m.

Alabama 7, Kentucky 7 · Kentucky 32% to win

no rain · wind 12 mph from the south-southeast, mostly at an angle to the field, gusts to 18 · 81°

Minchey intercepted by Metz at the UK34 and returned for a TD, ties it 7-7

Measured at Lexington/bluegrass airport, 5.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Alabama · 11-4

Rated 21st in our preseason ratings, 20th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 10-point win over Oklahoma as a 2.5-point underdog.

L 3-38 @ IndianaTop 25 #4 of 667

lost by 35 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 34-24 @ OklahomaTop 25 #19 of 667

won by 10 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 7-28 vs GeorgiaTop 25 #6 of 667

lost by 21 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 27-20 @ AuburnTop 25 #18 of 667

won by 7 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 56-0 vs Eastern Illinois #241 of 667

won by 56 as a 50.5-point favorite

L 21-23 vs OklahomaTop 25 #15 of 667

lost by 2 as a 6.5-point favorite

W 20-9 vs LSUTop 25 #22 of 667

won by 11 as a 10.5-point favorite

W 29-22 @ South CarolinaTop 25 #34 of 667

won by 7 as a 12.5-point favorite

W 37-20 vs TennesseeTop 25 #15 of 667

won by 17 as an 8.5-point favorite

W 27-24 @ MissouriTop 25 #14 of 667

won by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 30-14 vs VanderbiltTop 25 #28 of 667

won by 16 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 24-21 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #6 of 667

won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 38-14 vs Wisconsin #47 of 667

won by 24 as an 18.5-point favorite

W 73-0 vs UL Monroe #136 of 667

won by 73 as a 34.5-point favorite

L 17-31 @ Florida StateTop 25 #39 of 667

lost by 14 as a 13.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Kentucky · 5-7

Rated 102nd in our preseason ratings, 100th now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 0-41 @ LouisvilleTop 25 #30 of 667

lost by 41 as a 1.5-point favorite

L 17-45 @ VanderbiltTop 25 #20 of 667

lost by 28 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 42-10 vs Tennessee Tech #96 of 667

won by 32 as a 22.5-point favorite

W 38-7 vs FloridaTop 25 #37 of 667

won by 31 as a 5.5-point underdog

W 10-3 @ AuburnTop 25 #21 of 667

won by 7 as an 11.5-point underdog

L 34-56 vs TennesseeTop 25 #10 of 667

lost by 22 as a 7.5-point underdog

L 13-16 vs TexasTop 25 #9 of 667

lost by 3 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 14-35 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #6 of 667

lost by 21 as a 19.5-point underdog

L 13-35 @ South CarolinaTop 25 #20 of 667

lost by 22 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 48-23 vs Eastern Michigan #153 of 667

won by 25 as a 26.5-point favorite

L 23-30 vs Ole MissTop 25 #5 of 667

lost by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 24-16 vs Toledo #70 of 667

won by 8 as a 9.5-point favorite

Week by week

Kentucky

Wk 1Wvs Youngstown State45-13

Alabama

Wk 1Wvs East Carolina48-10

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Alabama’s success rate against Kentucky, 60 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Alabama’s success rate against Kentucky’s defense
Alabama offense, 78th percentile · Kentucky defense, 18th
Kentucky’s rushing EPA against Alabama’s defense
Kentucky offense, 62nd percentile · Alabama defense, 96th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

AlabamaKentucky

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Alabama leads the series 39-2-1

42 meetings since 1917 · Alabama has won the last 8

2023Alabama 49-21
2020Alabama 63-3
2016Alabama 34-6
2013Alabama 48-7
2009Alabama 38-20

Each line is Kentucky’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Kentucky fans are in a better mood than Alabama fans (69th vs 14th among FBS fanbases), even with Alabama favored.

Alabama favored by 9.5 · Total 47.5

How games like this usually go

Alabama by 9.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Kentucky.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot, with rain. Feels like 85° at kickoff.

Alabama at Kentucky · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Kroger Field, Lexington

85°feels like at kickoff
0.01 inrain at kickoff
74weather score, Rough
Roughestof the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the roughest of the day's seven kickoff times. At Kroger Field that day, a 7:30 pm kickoff would have scored 90, against 74 at 3:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

noon: 83, Mixed
1 pm: 81, Mixed
2 pm: 79, Mixed
3:30 pm: 74, Rough (this game)
6 pm: 82, Mixed
7 pm: 88, Mixed
7:30 pm: 90, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Kentucky is worth +6.1 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 81st percentile.

60% at home, 45% on the road against FBS opponents (32-21 home, 18-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.7 at home vs. away over 101 games — inside the ±6.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 374 miles to get here.

No. 12 Alabama routs Kentucky 45-17