Tennessee

3-0AP #14

SEC · Josh Heupel, year 6 (48-20) · Neyland Stadium · 102,455 · 101,915 avg in 2026

The nationAP #14 · Coaches #13up 1 from last week
The model#22 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #10 (+20.2) · FPI #10
The marketTexas by 5.5vs Texas · our model 41% Tennessee · a number, not a pick

LastW 42–9 vs Kennesaw State · Sat Sep 19 · Faizon Brandon 178 pass yds, 1 TD, 47 rush yds

Nextvs Texas · Sat Sep 26 · 12 pm ET · Neyland Stadium · Texas by 5.5 · series 1-2, lost the last 2 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3

Tennessee · 2026 schedule & results3-0
WkDateUsOppLineOpponentResultRecordConf
1Sep 5#30#202-49FurmanW 56–9 1321-00-0
2Sep 12#32#78-12.5@Georgia TechW 45–24 1372-00-0
3Sep 19#29#149-35.5Kennesaw StateW 42–9 1313-00-0
4Sep 26#24#4+5.5Texas
5Oct 3#22#58Auburn
6Oct 10@Arkansas
7Oct 17Alabama
8Oct 24@South Carolina
10Nov 7Kentucky
11Nov 14@Texas A&M
12Nov 21LSU
13Nov 28@Vanderbilt
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Explosive%Note
Sep 19Kennesaw StateW 42–9446129:03+0.37752.2%105.8%Defense's roughest night
Sep 12@Georgia TechW 45–24447028:48+0.23943.5%136.6%Season-low EPA/play
Sep 5FurmanW 56–9638232:02+0.56958.1%128.4%Season-high EPA/play
Season average (3 games)5101.0+0.39551.3%123.6%
Verdict Begins·Live

Tennessee remembers exactly what it was — a national champion, the SEC's loudest fall Saturday, Peyton in the huddle — and after a decade in the wilderness it's writing the sequel, even after the quarterback meant to headline it walked out over money.

AP Poll#14 AP

Fans spent a decade hearing the program eulogized — that the giant was done, that the wilderness was the new normal, that the fight song was the only thing left worth showing on TV. They never…

low signal
Read the full program story ↓

The season in chapters

Ahead
Sat Sep 26AP #1 Texasvs Texas · at home
Sat Oct 17Third Saturday in Octobervs AP #8 Alabama · at home
Sat Nov 21AP #10 LSUvs LSU · at home

What fans said

Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown

What it is like to watch them2025 · 8-5 · last season

Game feel69shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 16 in the SEC
Heart rate2-3some dramain one-score games (5 of 13)8th most one-score games of 16 in the SEC
Margin+10.9competitiveavg scoring margin6th best margin of 16 in the SEC
Tempo73uptempooffensive plays / game2nd fastest of 16 in the SEC
Big plays1.27some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)9th most explosive of 16 in the SEC
Home crowd101,915avg attendance3rd biggest crowds of 16 in the SEC

✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season

Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025

Tennessee has won three of its last five.

Mixed. 6-4 over the last 10, and won the last three.

Streak W3Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
The Giants just told me that quarterback Jaxson Dart is officially ruled out of this game
Rutledge · On33 days after Tennessee's 2026 game against Kennesaw State
The forecast

Next Sep 26

vs Texas · at home

Season line8.5 winsover -110
EliteRun-heavy, ground-controlStrong

✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total1 booksO/U 8.5
CFP championship#16 in field+3500
SEC title#8 in market+1300

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22

Tennessee · the story right now 12 storylines developing

What Tennessee's recruiting class is really about

the open questiondoes the recruiting haul translate on the field?

recruitingthis cycle~readnew

With Faizon Brandon (QB, #7 nationally) arriving, Tennessee's top-8 class confronts a rival Alabama's top-2 haul — a program rewriting its story with 2% QB production returning and five NFL exits to fill.

what happenedTennessee signed a top-8 recruiting class. ✓ fact
the contextthe program's best recruiting class in at least five years

our readfront page

playoff paththis cycle~readnew

Josh Heupel enters his sixth season with an 8-5 record, but the playoff path shifting and uneasy fan belief signal tension as Tennessee writes the sequel to its storied past.

what happenedTennessee: the playoff path shifting. ✓ fact

our readdeveloping

recruiting2025 cycle~readnew

David Sanders Jr., the #6 prospect nationally, arrives at Tennessee as Josh Heupel's third straight top-15 class fills 5 NFL exits with just 2% QB production returning — outrecruiting Alabama.

what happenedTennessee signed a top-11 recruiting class. ✓ fact
the contextthird consecutive top-15 recruiting class

our readfront page

dynastythis cycle~readnew

Heupel’s fifth class arrives at an 8-5 roster with 26 wins in four years — consistent recruiting masking the churn from a program writing its sequel.

what happenedTennessee has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 13% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 10%. ✓ fact
the contexta 26-10 record over the last three regular seasons

our readdeveloping

money down2025 cycle✓ factnew

Braylon Staley is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.

our readdeveloping

deep threat2025 cycle✓ factnew

Chris Brazzell II is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.

our readdeveloping

underdog2025 cycle✓ factnew

Chris Brazzell II produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.

our readdeveloping

garbage time2025 cycle✓ factnew

DeSean Bishop does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps -- the production isn't just garbage-time padding.

our readdeveloping

closer2025 cycle~attributednew

DeSean Bishop gets LESS work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict -- not the trusted closer raw carries might suggest.

our readbackground

closer2025 cycle~attributednew

Star Thomas: a closer signal screened this season.

our readbackground

garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew

Star Thomas: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.

our readbackground

coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew

Josh Heupel begins his sixth season with an 8-5 record, but a coordinator change and uneasy fan belief signal tension as Tennessee tries to live up to its legacy.

what happenedTennessee: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact

our readbackground

How past storylines here turned out

AnsweredTennessee's fall from dynasty-caliber territory held — it stayed out.
AnsweredTennessee's climb into dynasty-caliber territory held for another season.

Outcome band · Tennessee · 2026

Tennessee's most likely season is 10-3 — a bowl game. The floor is 7-6; the ceiling is 12-1.

Floor7-6A bowl game, 3 fewer wins.
Base10-3A bowl game.
Ceiling12-1A bowl game, 2 more wins.

Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · Tennessee · Recruiting Confidence

Tennessee signed the top-8 class. Talent in the door isn't the same as talent on the field.

Tennessee signed a top-8 recruiting class. It is the program's best recruiting class in at least five years. A top-8 class is a program-level investment. Development timelines decide the return. National coverage is split on what the ranking actually signals for this program.

bullish — but with real dissent where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers20 bull takes
💬 fans: 3% volume · mostly neutral
Developing5 new this week
yesterdayTennessee prospect decommits from Memphis — Reported
yesterday2028 Top 5 WR Braylon Clark Provides Recruiting Update, Confirms Visit with Tennessee Football — sports.yahoo.com
yesterdayMarket Monday: Three 2028 Tennessee Football Recruiting Targets Fans Need to Know — Sports Illustrated
yesterdayTennessee football offers former Mississippi State commit — volswire.usatoday.com
6 days agoJosiah Sturdivant decommits from Rutgers — Reported
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Derrick Baker Recruit
“Film Friday: Breaking Down 2027 Tennessee Quarterback Commit Derrick Baker's Film” — Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-18
David Gabriel Georges Recruit
“Vols commit David Gabriel Georges did something in his last game that matters more than stats, and Tennessee fans are loving it” — A to Z Sports · 2026-09-15
Immediate Impact Recruit
“ESPN Says This Five-Star Tennessee Commit Could Make an Immediate Impact” — Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-17
Says This Recruit
“ESPN Says This Five-Star Tennessee Commit Could Make an Immediate Impact” — Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-17
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
With Faizon Brandon (QB, #7 nationally) arriving, Tennessee's top-8 class confronts a rival Alabama's top-2 haul — a program rewriting its story with 2% QB production returning and five NFL exits to fill.
Source of record: Tennessee signed a top-8 recruiting class — the program's best recruiting class in at least five years.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards quiet
📣Believers20 bullish/recruiting items -- the case it's working.

The optimistic read: the class is real, the program is a destination again.

“2028 Top 5 WR Braylon Clark Provides Recruiting Update, Confirms Visit with Tennessee Football”
sports.yahoo.com · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“Market Monday: Three 2028 Tennessee Football Recruiting Targets Fans Need to Know”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“Tennessee football offers former Mississippi State commit”
volswire.usatoday.com · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Market Monday: Three 2028 Tennessee Football Recruiting…” — the real counter.

The 'rankings don't tell the whole story' counter -- development gaps, position holes still open.

“Market Monday: Three 2028 Tennessee Football Recruiting Targets Fans Need to Know”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
💬The boards3% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · joy dominant (63%).

This event was in 191 of 6417 board posts (3%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"Jace Coleman on Hudl Watch Jace Coleman's videos and highlights on Hudl. More info: Lugoff Elgin High School - Boys Varsity Football / OLB, DE / Class of 2028 / Elgin, SC www."
VolNation ~ fan take
"Two years ago i eagerly looked forward to this game with Texas as it would pit Nico vs Arch two highly regarded 5 star QB’s out of the same high school class. If Nico was still our"
VolNation ~ fan take

Board health this week (54 posts): 17% positive · 74% neutral · 9% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.

Following now · Tennessee · Developing Confidence

Tennessee: the playoff path shifting.

the room is genuinely split where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics4 doubt takes
Believers5 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 6% volume · mostly neutral
Developing2 new this week
yesterdayTennessee prospect decommits from Memphis — Reported
6 days agoJosiah Sturdivant decommits from Rutgers — Reported
last weekTennessee lineman returns to lineup — Reported
last weekBrent Key calls Georgia Tech soft — Reported
2 weeks agoWin total (line at 7.5) still unmoved 13d after "Arion Carter suspended"
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Josh Heupel enters his sixth season with an 8-5 record, but the playoff path shifting and uneasy fan belief signal tension as Tennessee writes the sequel to its storied past.
Source of record: Tennessee: the playoff path shifting.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards quiet
🎪The circus“A key Texas player just issued a challenge to Tennessee, and…” — the saga that won't quit.

The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.

“A key Texas player just issued a challenge to Tennessee, and it may decide who wins the Vols-Longhorns showdown”
A to Z Sports · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“The Good, Bad, and Ugly From Tennessee Football's Win Over Kennesaw State”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
📣Believers5 bullish items -- the case it's working.

The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“2028 Top 5 WR Braylon Clark Provides Recruiting Update, Confirms Visit with Tennessee Football”
sports.yahoo.com · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“Market Monday: Three 2028 Tennessee Football Recruiting Targets Fans Need to Know”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“Tennessee’s Front Line of Tension: Elite Potential Meets a Texas-Sized Test”
A to Z Sports · 2026-09-22 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Market Monday: Three 2028 Tennessee Football Recruiting…” — the real counter.

The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

“Market Monday: Three 2028 Tennessee Football Recruiting Targets Fans Need to Know”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“Mailbag: Answering the Biggest Tennessee Football Questions, Hot Takes, and Comments”
sports.yahoo.com · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
💬The boards6% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · joy dominant (63%).

This event was in 356 of 6417 board posts (6%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"ESPN's Heather Dinich, despite where the Vols fall in Bill Connelly s SP+ rankings, managed to hit the Vols with a big slap in the face on Sunday morning. Dinich currently has Texa"
VolNation ~ fan take
"This week's tiebreaker is number of rushing attempts by Tennessee. How it works: Pick the score for each team of the Tennessee game. You must pick the winner of the game to win the"
VolNation ~ fan take

Board health this week (54 posts): 17% positive · 74% neutral · 9% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.

Belief EKG
2019 seasonW 31-27 vs South Carolina (Wk 4)W 35-12 vs Missouri (Wk 5)L 21-44 vs Georgia (Wk 6)L 7-34 vs Kentucky (Wk 7)L 17-48 vs Alabama (Wk 8)L 13-24 vs Arkansas (Wk 10)L 17-30 vs Auburn (Wk 12)L 19-31 vs Florida (Wk 14)W 42-17 vs Vanderbilt (Wk 15)L 13-34 vs Texas A&M (Wk 16)HIGHLOW
2020 seasonL 30-38 vs Georgia State (Wk 1)L 26-29 vs BYU (Wk 2)W 45-0 vs Chattanooga (Wk 3)L 3-34 vs Florida (Wk 4)L 14-43 vs Georgia (Wk 6)W 20-10 vs Mississippi State (Wk 7)L 13-35 vs Alabama (Wk 8)W 41-21 vs South Carolina (Wk 9)W 30-7 vs UAB (Wk 10)W 17-13 vs Kentucky (Wk 11)W 24-20 vs Missouri (Wk 13)W 28-10 vs Vanderbilt (Wk 14)W 23-22 vs Indiana (Wk 19)HIGHLOW
2020 offseason2019 offseasonWire: Heupel keeps the air-raid engine humming — Golesh ran one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the…Wire: Five guys gone to the draft and EDGE depth already thin — Coleman's dismissal cuts the rotation…Story arc: Dusty May leaves Michigan for NBA, shaking up college basketballWk 39Wk 4498th9th
2020 season · 3W-7L2019 season · 8W-5L2025 offseason · fan confidence percentile
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasonsWire eventStory arc

Rival pulse

Alabama
Bullish
+25
Third Saturday in October
Face-off →
Kentucky
Hopeful
+18
Tennessee-Kentucky

Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data

More in this tab

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Tennessee is a program that remembers what it was and is writing the sequel.

Offense: EliteRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlDefense: Strong
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2025 · Wk 15Fell out of the AP Top 25The committee dropped them out too, from No. 19.Week 14 · Lost 24-45 at home to Vanderbiltwas No. 18
  • 2025 · Wk 11Fell to No. 23 in the AP Top 25Week 10 · Lost 27-33 at home to Oklahoma9 · from No. 14
  • 2025 · Wk 9Fell to No. 17 in the AP Top 25Week 8 · Lost 20-37 at Alabama6 · from No. 11
  • 2025 · Wk 3Climbed to No. 15 in the AP Top 25Week 2 · Won 72-17 at home over East Tennessee State7 · from No. 22
RosterWho's gone, who's back, who replaces them.

Roster Reload - Tennessee

2026 snapshot - 2026-09-22
Returning Production35%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#13 nationally247 composite 885.9
Portal Additions21Primary repair: S
Portal Losses29Primary pressure: EDGE
Draft Loss5NFL Draft departures (5)
Recruiting Reload#8Top-10 recruiting class
EDGEin 2 - Chaz Coleman5.00out 5 - Jordan Ross4.38Starter Risk
CBin 4 - Kayin Lee3.80out 3 - Rickey Gibson III4.38Upgrade
current room: 193 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Cover Corner2025 profiledoesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play
Former four-star
Sin 4 - Dejuan Lane3.70out 2 - Boo Carter4.38Need Filled
Hybrid Nickel2025 profilemoves between deep coverage and the slot
OTin 1 - Ory Williams3.60out 4 - Lance Heard4.50Starter Risk
WRin 1 - Ian Duarte3.50out 4 - Amari Jefferson4.28Starter Risk
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 1 - Xavier Gilliam4.50out 3 - Jamal Wallace3.60Starter Risk
current room: 272 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Two-Gap Basewins his gap play after play
Full roster (114 players)
Offseason movesEvery addition and subtraction since the last snap.

The Offseason Ledger · Tennessee

6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. News

    Tennessee names freshman QB1

    Faizon Brandon earning QB1 before he's played a college snap — Heupel's top-8 class isn't depth-chart filler, it's the succession plan in real time.

    Aug 24Reported
  2. News

    Tennessee DC joins LSU staff

    Losing your DC to Baton Rouge while the EDGE room is already under pressure and five starters are gone — that's not a normal offseason leak, that's a structural crack in a rebuild that was supposed to be trending up.

    Jul 28Reported
  3. Recruiting

    Former Tennessee commit flips to SEC rival

    Losing a committed prospect to an SEC rival stings harder when you're already patching EDGE depth after five draft exits — a top-11 class doesn't mean much if the room bleeds before it fills.

  4. News

    Golesh leaves USF for Tennessee OC role

    Heupel keeps the air-raid engine humming — Golesh ran one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the AAC at USF, and with five starters gone to the draft, Tennessee's skill rooms needed a coordinator who builds from scratch fast.

  5. News

    Arion Carter suspended

    Carter's suspension hits the EDGE room that already lost to the draft — Heupel's top-8 class hasn't had time to fill that gap yet, and now the depth chart gets thinner before fall camp ends.

    Aug 24Reported
  6. News

    Tennessee releases early depth chart

    Five draft departures and a top-10 class later, that early depth chart is the first real answer to who plugs the EDGE gap — Heupel's rebuild is moving from recruiting hype to actual roster math.

    Aug 15Reported
Who's movedWho's transferring in and out, right now.

Transfer portal snapshot

-4.6 net portal points
(raw ledger: -25.9 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
OT
-11.4
starter risk
EDGE
-10.4
starter risk
S
+6.5
need filled
WR
-6.3
starter risk
DL
-6.0
starter risk
CB
+5.6
LB
-4.2
IOL
-3.7
TE
+3.0
LS
+1.0
low confidence
QB
-0.1
K
+0.0
RB
+0.0
Top commits

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★★★
Faizon Brandon
QB · Greensboro, NC
#10 national
Blue-chip pedigree, profiling early as a prototypical quarterback — 13 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★★
TK Keys
WR · Hattiesburg, MS
#13 national
Blue-chip pedigree, profiling early as a prototypical wide receiver — 17 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Joel Wyatt
ATH · Murfreesboro, TN
#71 national
Where they're fromWhere this class actually comes from, on the map.

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

30
TN · 12GA · 6MS · 3NJ · 2AL · 1IN · 1MA · 1MD · 1+3 more

TN leads the 2026 class with 12 commits. National footprint reaching 11 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

105 signees across 22 states, 2023-2026. TN leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWI1MI1NYMA1ORNVWYSDIAILIN2OH1PANJ3CTCA3UTCO1NEMO3KY1WVVA3MD3DERIAZNMKS1ARTN34NC6SC1DCOK1LA1MS4AL7GA24AKHITX3FL
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles

That is 12.4% of every high-school FBS signee TN produced over those cycles — the biggest share any program takes — Middle Tennessee is next. The full map →

Miles from homeHow far this roster travelled to get here.

Miles from home · 2026 roster

The median Tennessee player grew up 191 miles from campus.

Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.

20th-closest to home in FBS of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%144–432 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi12%13 of 107 players
Farthest2,113 miCole Harrison · San Mateo, CA
Closest0 miDeSean Bishop · Knoxville, TN

Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Neyland Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 107 of 114 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

In-state shareHow much of this roster is home-grown.

Who owns TN · 2026 roster

32% of the Tennessee roster grew up in TN.

35 of 109 players, drawn from 22 states in all. That is the 64th-highest in-state share of 135 ranked FBS programs.

TN · 35GA · 24AL · 7NC · 6CA · 5MD · 4MS · 4OH · 3+14 more

Where the 2026 roster is from

109 players across 22 states. Biggest pull outside TN: GA (24).

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWI1MI1NYMA1ORNVWYSDIAIL2IN2OH3PANJ2CTCA5UTCO2NEMOKY1WVVA2MD4DERIAZNMKS1ARTN35NC6SC2DCOKLA1MS4AL7GA24AKHITX2FL1
Source CFB Zeitgeist · roster_entries (CFBD hometowns)
Every FBS roster ranked by in-state share →

Home state as listed on the CFBD roster. 5 listed players fall outside the 50 states and DC (international hometowns, or no state listed) and are excluded from the denominator. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

Tennessee OT David Sanders Jr. donates $20,000, football equipment to alma mater
80 upvotes · Jul 2026

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

How it turned outHow an old class actually turned out, years on.
Class Autopsy
The 2023 class: 0 drafted so far, 46% never transferred. A
See the class →
Belief historyHow today's fan mood compares to the program's past.

Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years

21st percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. marketWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market
21st
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
8.5
Vegas O/U wins
(79th among FBS)
Market 58pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
Pollster gapPollsters don't agree -- here's how far apart.
Voter spread

67 of 68 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 3 (2026) — from #12, David Jablonski (Dayton Daily News), to #25, Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News). 1 voter left them off the ballot entirely.

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 3, 2026 — 68 voters tracked.

TakeawaysWhat this defense does once it gets the ball.
Takeaway conversion

Deflections without payoff: 13% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~19% league-wide.

2 interceptions of 15 disrupted passes (13 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

The flags haven't favored them: 24 penalties committed vs. 19 drawn on opponents, 41 yards behind.

222 penalty yards committed vs. 181 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

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