The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Josh Heupel

Followed Jeremy Pruitt. Josh Heupel moved Tennessee from Power Program III to Power Program II in 6 seasons.

The empire-builder
73–28
2018–now · 2 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

Arion Carter represents everything that is right about college athletics, dedicating all 4 years of his career to the University of Tennessee
At the end of the day, it’s nothing major
The Daily Beacon2 days after the 56–9 opener
He played extremely smart the other night
The Daily Beacon2 days after the 56–9 opener
One of the strong leaders inside the room
The Daily Beaconthe day after the 56–9 opener
I thought he did a good job scrambling
The Daily Beaconthe day after the 56–9 opener
JG’s been phenomenal since he got here
The Daily Beaconthe day after the 56–9 opener
I thought he managed the purpose of what we were trying to accomplish extremely well
The Daily Beaconthe day after the 56–9 opener
I’d be remiss if I didn’t also talk about the passing of Dolly Parton
FOX Sports5 days before the opener
You look at (Dolly’s) impact, you know, just her ability to give back, make an impact to people, certainly here in East Tennessee. She means a lot to people across this country
FOX Sports5 days before the opener
You look at her impact, just her ability to give back, make an impact on people, certainly here in East Tennessee
The Daily Beacon5 days before the opener
They’ve had really positive days, positive plays
On3
The ruling that came out from the NCAA, the two-game suspension, I truly believe is bullsh*t
The Daily Beacon
You look at Arion, the person and the player that he is, every single day
The Daily Beacon
Our team stands behind AC and his family, and we can’t wait to be on the field with him during training camp next week
Saturday Down South
Yeah, you look back, he’s made some jumps in year one. Maybe not to where he ended, where he’s number one, number two, number three in the defense, third down defense, whatever it might be
Saturday Down South
I think all of those things lend itself to us transitioning extremely quickly
Saturday Down South
I don’t think there is just one thing at the quarterback position. That guy’s got his hands on the football every single play. You have to learn how to take care and manage the game
Saturday Down South
They have to play on a competitive edge, distribute the football, get it to your play-makers on time and accurately where they have a chance to make a play afterwards
Saturday Down South
Chaz has been dealing with some things, and we’re here to support him
Saturday Down South
For a true freshman, getting here in January … he’s been really sound in what he’s done
Saturday Down South
In general, I’ve been really pleased with their decision-making
Saturday Down South
I thought defensively we played extremely well, created a couple turnovers
Saturday Down South
I do like where we are for 7 practices in
Saturday Down South
Don’t expect a guy to be named here during the course of spring ball
Saturday Down South
The way college football is constantly changing, that probably makes the most sense
Saturday Down South
Physical and mental toughness is paramount in everything we do year-round as a program
Saturday Down South
Heupel is hiring Knowles to be an immediate firefighter, but that’s not what he has been to date.
Tennessee · On3
Heupel is hiring Knowles to be an immediate firefighter, but that’s not what he has been to date.
Tennessee · On3

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerUCFTENNESSEEPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyUCF, 2018: 12-1, National Program I2018UCF, 2019: 10-3, National Program I2019UCF, 2020: 6-4, National Program I2020+7.2Tennessee, 2021: 7-6, Power Program III2021Tennessee, 2022: 11-2, Power Program II2022Tennessee, 2023: 9-4, Power Program II2023Tennessee, 2024: 10-3, Power Program II2024Tennessee, 2025: 8-5, Power Program II2025Tennessee, 2026: in progress, Power Program II2026+8.1One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Power Program in his 4th career season — faster than 37% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #215 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

UCF, 3 seasons
+7.2
National Program I → National Program I.
Tennessee, 6 seasons (active)
+8.1
Power Program III → Power Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%UCF2018–2020▲ 8.1ptTennessee2021–2026▼ 5.1pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
UCF8.1pt#168 of 258 · a typical amount
Tennessee12.8pt#77 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

14–4 against his rivals. Winless in 5 tries against Kirby Smart.

Rivalry record
14–4
77.8% · 4 rivals
One-score games
10–14
41.7% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–3
0.0%
Buyout owed
$37,500,000
bigger than 87% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Alabama2–340%
Kentucky5–0100%
Vanderbilt4–180%
South Florida3–0100%
The toughest matchup
vs. Kirby Smart0–5
5 meetings, 2021–2025
’21 L · blew a 7-pt lead’22 L · blew a 3-pt lead’23 L · blew a 7-pt lead’24 L · blew a 10-pt lead’25 L · blew a 14-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 5-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–3 0.0%
Blue Blood
4–7 36.4%
Power Program
6–5 54.5%
National Program
26–8 76.5%
Regional Program
24–4 85.7%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.83
#7 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.18
#64 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

recruiting resultOne fan's take that season

One fan believes Josh Heupel has failed to secure strong recruiting classes despite expectations

Not gonna lie, I figured after having the season they had and with Josh being on the warm seat that they would absolutely just dominate the portal and sec recruiting. Looks like another big swing and a miss.

Based on 2 comments from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jun 23, 2026 · via Tennessee Football Volquest | On3

Coaching career

2021–now
Tennesseecaretaker
Power Program III → Power Program II
Josh Heupel moved Tennessee from Power Program III to Power Program II in 6 seasons.

10th-best Tennessee tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+24.8 pts
#21 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+1.3 pts
#92 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Jeremy Pruitt (2018–2020).

Season202120222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record7–611–29–410–38–50–0
PostseasonL bowlW bowlW bowlCFP lossL bowl
Recruiting rank#16#18#10#14#11#8
Style — pass rate
Pass rate39.444.745.739.147.134.3
Coordinators
OCAlex GoleshAlex GoleshJoey HalzleJoey HalzleJoey HalzleJoey Halzle
DCTim BanksTim BanksTim BanksTim BanksTim BanksJim Knowles / Anthony Poindexter
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense919880769287
Defense357588833573
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%45.154.145.240.444.028.8
Red-zone pass%30.831.540.431.029.526.3
4th-down go%opp. territory64.757.528.629.334.5
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
63
3.2★ avg rating
Portal departures
150
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-87
#118 of 187 FBS stints
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Lance Heard On3 modeled · $2,000,000Chaz Coleman On3 modeled · $2,000,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 238 lbs
across 56 of 63 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+9.7 lbs
#21 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#82 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: CA (9), TN (9), GA (6), NC (4), FL (4)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
61.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
66.3
position-weighted
Net
-5.3
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Joey Aguilar (QB) from UCLA
Biggest loss: Nico Iamaleava (QB) to UCLA
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Alex Golesh → Joey Halzle · 2023the offense slipped
95th pct78th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 49.6% → 42.8% (-6.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 42% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Tim Banks → Jim Knowles / co-Anthony Poindexter · 2026
35th pct73rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
221 lbs
6′4″ avg · #143 of 767 · more than most
Running back
208 lbs
5′11″ avg · #338 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
199 lbs
6′2″ avg · #122 of 791 · more than most
Tight end
247 lbs
6′5″ avg · #295 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
321 lbs
6′5″ avg · #40 of 779 · more than most
D-line
280 lbs
6′4″ avg · #471 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
228 lbs
6′2″ avg · #393 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
194 lbs
6′0″ avg · #195 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys K via the portal
100%
#1 of 56 stints
Grows Running back from high school
75%
#162 of 208 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
79%
#173 of 224 stints
Postseason detail2021: Lost to Purdue 45–48 TransPerfect Music City Bowl2022: Beat Clemson 31–14 Capital One Orange Bowl2023: Beat Iowa 35–0 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl2024: Lost to Ohio State 17–42 College Football Playoff First Round Game Presented by Allstate2025: Lost to Illinois 28–30 Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl

24 NFL Draft picks: Josh Palmer (2021), Trey Smith (2021), Alontae Taylor (2022), Velus Jones Jr. (2022), Matthew Butler (2022), Cade Mays (2022), Theo Jackson (2022), Darnell Wright (2023) + 16 more

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Jalin Hyatt (2022), Cooper Mays (2024)

45–20
2018–2020
UCFcaretaker
National Program II → National Program I
Josh Heupel moved UCF from National Program II to National Program I in 3 seasons.

1st-best UCF tenure of 7 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+39.3 pts
#6 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
+10.7 pts
#65 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Succeeded by Gus Malzahn (2021–2024).

Season201820192020Trend
Record & result
Record12–110–36–4
PostseasonL bowlW bowlL bowl
Recruiting rank#62#59#71
Style — pass rate
Pass rate39.845.047.9
Coordinators
OCJeff LebbyAlex Golesh / Anthony Tucker
DCRandy ShannonRandy ShannonRandy Shannon
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense958890
Defense578743
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%43.451.449.9
Red-zone pass%28.533.640.4
4th-down go%opp. territory42.952.651.5
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Jeff Lebby → co-Alex Golesh / co-Anthony Tucker · 2020
88th pct90th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 51.4% → 49.9% (-1.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 68% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints
Grows Tackle from high school
100%
#198 of 223 stints
Postseason detail2018: Lost to LSU 32–40 Playstation Fiesta Bowl2019: Beat Marshall 48–25 Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl2020: Lost to BYU 23–49 RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl

11 NFL Draft picks: Mike Hughes (2018), Tre'Quan Smith (2018), Jordan Akins (2018), Shaquem Griffin (2018), Trysten Hill (2019), Gabriel Davis (2020), Richie Grant (2021), Aaron Robinson (2021) + 3 more

28–8
How to read this. Bands and archetypes come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.