Tennessee at South Carolina
South Carolina (3‑3) hosts Tennessee (#11, 6‑1). The market has South Carolina favored by 2.5. South Carolina’s offense is at the 44th percentile on explosive plays; Tennessee’s defense is at the 95th.
How they got here
Last three games
Tennessee · 6-1
Rated 30th in our preseason ratings, 18th now, up 12 spots.
Three straight wins, capped by a 16-point win over Alabama as a 7.5-point underdog.
Last three games
South Carolina · 3-3
Rated 16th in our preseason ratings, 32nd now, down 16 spots.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 19-point win over Florida as a 10.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: South Carolina’s passing EPA against Tennessee, 52 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
South Carolina’s explosive plays against Tennessee’s defense
South Carolina offense, 44th percentile · Tennessee defense, 95th
South Carolina’s passing EPA against Tennessee’s defense
South Carolina offense, 44th percentile · Tennessee defense, 96th
Tennessee’s EPA/play against South Carolina’s defense
Tennessee offense, 63rd percentile · South Carolina defense, 26th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of October 23, 2026
The series
Tennessee leads the series 29-11-2
42 meetings since 1903 · Tennessee won the last meeting
- 2023Tennessee 41-20
- 2022South Carolina 63-38
- 2021Tennessee 45-20
- 2020Tennessee 31-27
- 2019Tennessee 41-21
Each line is South Carolina’s chance to win through that meeting. South Carolina is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Tennessee
The chip · vs the national mediaFans spent a decade hearing the program eulogized — that the giant was done, that the wilderness was the new normal, that the fight song was the only thing left worth showing on TV. They never believed it, and the Heupel years are the receipt they keep waving.
What this game touches
The Iamaleava departure. Days before the 2025 spring game, quarterback Nico Iamaleava missed practice in an NIL standoff and transferred to UCLA, leaving the restoration's centerpiece gone over a contract dispute. Heupel rebuilt around App State transfer Joey Aguilar, who threw for the third-most yards in a Vols season ever, but an 8-5 finish and a Music City Bowl loss to Illinois showed how thin the margin still is.
South Carolina
The chip · vs the blue bloodsGamecock fans have spent generations as the SEC's welcome mat for Georgia, Clemson, and the rest — and they wear the grievance like a badge. They'll tell you nobody fights harder for less, and that the program that should never be respected keeps refusing to go quietly.
What this game touches
The 2025 collapse. South Carolina opened 2025 ranked No. 13 with quarterback LaNorris Sellers a Heisman contender and finished 4-8 (1-7 SEC). Sellers regressed and was sacked a career-high 43 times; Shane Beamer fired his offensive coordinator mid-season and enters 2026 squarely on the hot seat. The fanbase's oldest fear — that the ceiling is real — got loud again.
Best players
Tennessee
- DeSean Bishop (RB) · 837 rushing yards — Heisman odds: 56th (+22500)
- Amare Campbell (LB) · 46 tackles
- Arion Carter (LB) · 43 tackles
South Carolina
- Justin Okoronkwo (LB) · 43 tackles
- Fred Johnson (LB) · 34 tackles
- Lanorris Sellers (QB) · 1,338 passing yards — Heisman odds: 16th (+4400)
What to watch
Player to watch: Lanorris Sellers (QB) — South Carolina’s leading passer (1,338 passing yards) takes on Tennessee’s pass defense (96th percentile allowed).
The spread has moved 5.0 points toward South Carolina since opening (+2.5 → −2.5).
The betting line, and the fans
South Carolina fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (51st among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
South Carolina favored by 2.5 · Total 50.5
South Carolina by 2.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
South Carolina’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 256 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Mild. No coat needed.
Tennessee at South Carolina · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 3:30 pm ET · ESPN · Williams-Brice Stadium.
- 70°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 20 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Williams-Brice Stadium: noon Saturdays score 87, 3:30 pm 87, 7:30 pm 95.
- noon: 87, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 87, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
South Carolina is worth +4.5 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 58th percentile.
52% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (26-24 home, 13-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.8 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 214 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
South Carolina
- Wk 2Wvs Towson45-9
- Wk 3Lvs Mississippi State34-41
- Wk 4Lat Alabama18-49
- Wk 5Lvs Kentucky34-35
- Wk 6Wat Florida38-19
Tennessee
- Wk 3Wvs Kennesaw State42-9
- Wk 4Lvs Texas17-20
- Wk 5Wvs Auburn24-14
- Wk 6Wat Arkansas24-17
- Wk 7Wvs Alabama26-10
Power rating by week
Tennessee is rated 2.7 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 5 points toward South Carolina.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: +2.5 → −2.5 · Total: 51.5 → 50.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- South Carolina14th1-3
- Tennessee3rd3-1
Last meeting in our History pages
- South Carolina 63, Tennessee 38Nov 19, 2022
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2016.