2Kent State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
Mark Carney's 5-7 turnaround capped by reclaiming the Wagon Wheel from Akron offers a rare spark for a program mired in a 1-23 slide across 2023-2024.
2Mark Carney's 5-7 turnaround capped by reclaiming the Wagon Wheel from Akron offers a rare spark for a program mired in a 1-23 slide across 2023-2024.
Kent State went 1-23 across two seasons, fired its coach, and turned to the guy already on staff -- who won five games in one year and took the Wagon Wheel back from Akron in overtime to prove it.
Kent State fans have watched the program get written off as a MAC afterthought during the 1-23 stretch -- and answered with a coach promoted from the same staff that presided over it, turning the rost…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at South Carolina · Sat Sep 5 · 16:45 UTC
Kent State went 1-23 across 2023-2024, fired Kenni Burns in April 2025, and turned to interim-then-permanent head coach Mark Carney -- who led a 5-7 turnaround with more wins in one season than the previous two combined, capped by reclaiming the Wagon Wheel from Akron in an overtime thriller.
With only 11% of returning players and a #122 recruiting rank, Kent State's 2026 season hinges on integrating 11 transfer additions while addressing key position needs.
Flash is circling, waiting to strike.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Kent State enters 2026 — the 5-7 record and bottom-quintile returning production highlight the steep climb ahead for Mark Carney in his first season at the helm.
Mark Carney's 5-7 turnaround capped by reclaiming the Wagon Wheel from Akron offers a rare spark for a program mired in a 1-23 slide across 2023-2024.
Gavin Garcia does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
Kent State enters 2025 at No. 130 in SP+ — Mark Carney's first season faces bottom-quintile production returning and a 5-7 record as the baseline.
Kent State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Carney, who led a 5-7 turnaround at Kent State, inherits an 11% production return and a program that’s been through three coaches in five years — the churn defines the challenge, not his credentials.
Stephen Daley returns to Indiana football
Daley's injunction win sends him back to Bloomington — Kent State loses a blocking anchor from a depth class already ranked #122 nationally and sweating OT pressure heading into 2026.
Top 3 commits
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Kent State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Kent State enters 2026 rated No. 130 in 2025 SP+ (-19.3). It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 2 of 8 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Kent State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Only 2 of 8 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Opens Sep 5
vs South Carolina · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
OH leads the 2026 class with 13 commits. National footprint reaching 5 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
79 signees across 14 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
8 games with TV coverage: 4 cable, 2 conference network, 2 streaming
Kickoff windows: 3 noon, 2 afternoon, 3 primetime
Recovering 36% of the fumbles they've forced — running cold vs. the ~49% league rate.
4 of 11 forced fumbles recovered; 10 of 16 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Converting 16% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
6 interceptions of 38 disrupted passes (32 deflected, 6 intercepted), 2025 only.
Winning the penalty battle: 73 penalties committed vs. 68 drawn on opponents, a 58-yard edge.
585 penalty yards committed vs. 643 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
~ our readNot enough Kent State chatter this week to read the room.
We read 4 Kent State posts this week — not enough to call the room. Check back during the season.
Fanbase Health Index · Kent State · medium confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vertical Passer · +0.23 EPA/play | 12 | 11 | 136 / 240 | 56.7 | 2030 | 8.5 | 18 #49 FBS | 3 | 150.0 | 40.4 | 8.6 | 5.1 | |
Yards by week → Vertical PasserElite arm talent, pushing downfield. Completion rate is the variable. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 9 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt8.6 80th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate1.2% 86th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dru DeShields's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.16 EPA/play | 7 | 2 | 10 / 19 | 52.6 | 140 | 7.4 | 1 | 1 | 121.4 | 12.8 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| +0.01 EPA/play | 15 | 2 | 8 / 17 | 47.1 | 74 | 4.4 | 0 | 1 | 71.9 | 7.7 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| -0.79 EPA/play | 2 | 2 | 5 / 10 | 50 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 | 0 | 81.9 | 13.7 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.05 EPA/play | 5 | 12 | 146 | 647 | 4.4 | 3 | 45 | 13.4 | 13.2 | 14.8 | 7.7 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.6 bottom 26th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share2.7% bottom 8th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Gavin Garcia's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.05 EPA/play | 27 | 8 | 79 | 253 | 3.2 | 1 | 25 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 23.7 | 6.6 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry3.6 bottom 4th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share3.7% bottom 11th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Jordan Nubin's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.29 EPA/play | 84 | 10 | 39 | 97 | 2.5 | 0 | 12 | 6.6 | 10 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.66 EPA/play | 1 | 11 | 33 | 507 | 15.4 | 4 | 75 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 17.5% (45/257) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception16.2 78th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.7 78th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 0th to 56th percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · -0.11 EPA/play | 6 | 12 | 35 | 383 | 10.9 | 1 | 42 | 8.5 | 11 | 24.9% (64/257) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Return threatReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. a house-call threat every time he fields it 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception11.8 bottom 35th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)-0.1 bottom 2th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint View Wayne Harris's full player page | |||||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.57 EPA/play | 13 | 9 | 12 | 205 | 17.1 | 2 | 38 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 6.6% (17/257) | |
Yards by week → Deep Threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception17.1 85th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate16.7% 91th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ardell Banks's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.79 EPA/play | 89 | 9 | 19 | 198 | 10.4 | 4 | 50 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 8.6% (22/257) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception12.0 62th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions TD rate21.1% 94th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Terik Mulder's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.22 EPA/play | 85 | 8 | 12 | 148 | 12.3 | 1 | 36 | 4.5 | 6.4 | 8.2% (21/257) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · senior View Sebastian Brown's full player page | |||||||||||
| +1.57 EPA/play | 11 | 6 | 6 | 93 | 15.5 | 0 | 21 | 5.1 | 1.1 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.24 EPA/play | 18 | 4 | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 4 | 11 | 28 | 17 | 8 | 6 #74 FBS | 6 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate28.6% 93th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jamond Mathis's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 95 | 9 | 24 | 11 | 4 | 2.5 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 58th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jelani Davis's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 5 | 9 | 24 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 58th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Thomas Aden's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 11 | 9 | 19 | 8 | 4.5 | 2 | 1 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.7% 83th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 34th percentile among FBS IDLs, up from the 5th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 17 | 9 | 19 | 6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate7.9% bottom 24th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Mattheus Carroll's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 94 | 10 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.5% bottom 33th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Amon Williams's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 58 | 9 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 1.5 | 0 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate26.3% 89th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Darian Blachewicz's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 55 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate6.7% bottom 20th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Josue Cordoba's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 33 | 10 | 15 | 11 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 58th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jaihien Roy's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 6 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.7% bottom 34th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Mason Maddox's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 52 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight305 lb 78th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Aiden Burgess's full player page | |||||||
| 44 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | — | 12 | 94 | 35 | 59 | 11 #74 FBS | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume94 94th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate1.1% bottom 30th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 40th percentile among FBS LBs to the 79th | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 15 | 12 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 2 | 0.5 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.1% 82th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate5.1% bottom 28th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Sayed Abuhamdeh's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 8 | 8 | 37 | 20 | 17 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume37 bottom 31th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nylan Brown's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 10 | 9 | 36 | 15 | 21 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume36 bottom 30th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate1.4% bottom 13th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Canaan Williams's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 2 | 8 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume16 bottom 11th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Semaj Cross's full player page | |||||||||
| 32 | 5 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 3 | 11 | 89 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 2.5 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume89 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readReinvented: changed shape entirely — Hybrid Nickel to Box Safety, his CFB Index score moved from the 54th to 98th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Box Safety | 21 | 11 | 66 | 1 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume66 87th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Joel Cordoba's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 22 | 10 | 52 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume52 95th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jaire Rawlison's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 31 | 11 | 48 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.2% bottom 30th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Derrick Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 13 | 10 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Tevin Tucker's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 18 | 9 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 19 | 10 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 14th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View DJ Barnes's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 7 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · junior View A'tiq Muhammad's full player page | |||||||
| 12 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 7 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 28 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 10 | 6/8 | 75 | 30/30 | 48 | 38 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 61 | 10 | 48 | 1973 | 41.1 | 63 | 13 | 2 |
| 97 | 3 | 9 | 282 | 31.3 | 47 | 3 | 0 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1.16 EPA/play | 30 | 10 | 16 | 452 | 28.3 | 2 | 100 |
| +0.79 EPA/play | 21 | 11 | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 0 | 19 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · -0.11 EPA/play | 6 | 12 | 16 | 211 | 13.2 | 1 | 59 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+23 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #264 | #199 | -5.5 | Merrimack | W 21–17 55 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #251 | #27 | +47.5 | @Texas Tech | L 14–62 139 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #245 | #59 | +24 | Buffalo | L 28–31 146 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #233 | #77 | +45.5 | @Florida State | L 10–66 133 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #257 | #17 | +46.5 | @Oklahoma | L 0–44 120 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #244 | #198 | -1.5 | Massachusetts | W 42–6 141 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #220 | #42 | +25.5 | @Toledo | L 10–45 122 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #227 | #134 | +7.5 | Bowling Green | W 24–21 129 | 3-5 | 2-2 |
| 11 | Nov 6 | #228 | #206 | +3 | @Ball State | L 13–17 123 | 3-6 | 2-3 |
| 12 | Nov 12 | #227 | #148 | +7.5 | @Akron | W 42–35 142 | 4-6 | 3-3 |
| 13 | Nov 20 | #213 | #81 | +7.5 | Central Michigan | L 16–28 129 | 4-7 | 3-4 |
| 14 | Nov 28 | #210 | #186 | +5.5 | @Northern Illinois | W 35–31 126 | 5-7 | 3-4 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28 | @Northern Illinois | W 35–31 | 438 | 2 | 28:09 | +0.344 | 48.3% | 129.7% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 20 | Central Michigan | L 16–28 | 276 | 1 | 26:39 | +0.066 | 35.8% | 123.2% | |
| Nov 12 | @Akron | W 42–35 | 374 | 1 | 21:20 | +0.338 | 39.6% | 189.5% | Most explosive |
| Nov 6 | @Ball State | L 13–17 | 301 | 1 | 27:42 | -0.145 | 30.2% | 134.7% | One-score loss |
| Oct 25 | Bowling Green | W 24–21 | 294 | 0 | 23:08 | +0.213 | 42.6% | 138.8% | One-score win |
| Oct 18 | @Toledo | L 10–45 | 224 | 1 | 26:12 | +0.029 | 30.6% | 143.8% | Blowout loss |
| Oct 11 | Massachusetts | W 42–6 | 337 | 0 | 29:29 | +0.154 | 49.1% | 92.8% | Best success rate |
| Oct 4 | @Oklahoma | L 0–44 | 135 | 2 | 28:58 | -0.326 | 15.4% | 129.4% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 20 | @Florida State | L 10–66 | 206 | 1 | 25:29 | -0.136 | 25.9% | 124.7% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 13 | Buffalo | L 28–31 | 423 | 1 | 37:22 | +0.274 | 38.4% | 148.2% | One-score loss |
| Sep 6 | @Texas Tech | L 14–62 | 229 | 2 | 29:57 | -0.180 | 22.0% | 171.7% | Blowout loss |
| Aug 30 | Merrimack | W 21–17 | 308 | 1 | 28:29 | +0.125 | 35.7% | 131.8% | One-score win |
| Season average (12 games) | 295 | 1.1 | +0.063 | 34.5% | 138.2% | ||||
Kent State fields a struggling explosive, big-play offense behind a porous defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
21st percentile quality, 86th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 34th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 43rd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
15th percentile success on standard downs, 5th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 31st percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 57th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.06; 48th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.03. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.13 raw vs. 0.00 adjusted.
Kent State reads strongest in explosive plays (top 9%) and passing epa (top 48%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where Kent State sits at the 4th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Kent State
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Kent State · 2018-present
51% home win rate vs 19% on the road. margin runs +22.9 better at home. Dix Stadium seats 25,319, averaging 42% full (10,553 attendance, 19 games reported).
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Wayne Harris (WR) and Terik Mulder (TE) split the targets (64/85 vs 21/85) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 16 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 16 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Kent State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (62.6% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 119-play sample) — mid-pack, 14 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
57°F average kickoff temp; 23% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 60 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Kent State's 2014–2025 record is 40-97. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1904 · 67 seasons · .325 win rate
Kent State won one game combined across two seasons. A year later, the guy who was already on staff had the Golden Flashes at 5-7 and reclaiming their oldest rivalry trophy in overtime.
1-23. That's what Kenni Burns left behind across 2023 and 2024, and it's about as low as the MAC gets. Kent State fired him in April 2025 and did the unglamorous thing — promoted offensive coordinator Mark Carney to interim, watched him steady the program, and made it official on October 30, 2025.
The results showed up fast. Carney's Golden Flashes went 5-7 (4-4 in the MAC) — more wins in one season than the previous two combined — and the signature moment came in Akron: a 42-35 overtime win that took back the Wagon Wheel trophy after Akron had run away with it 38-17 the year before. The Wagon Wheel is old — the rivalry dates to 1923, ten miles separating two campuses that have played for that trophy every year since the postwar era resumed it — and getting it back in overtime, mid-turnaround, is the kind of win a fanbase needed after two years like that.
Kent State's national name recognition, for what it's worth, runs almost entirely through one guy who never played for this era: Julian Edelman started at quarterback from 2006 to 2008, threw for nearly 5,000 yards, then went on to twelve years with the New England Patriots, three Super Bowl rings, and Super Bowl LIII MVP. He's in the Kent State Hall of Fame and, as of 2025, the Patriots Hall of Fame too — proof that a MAC program's ceiling, at least for one player, went all the way to the top of the sport. The program's actual on-field peak was more recent and more modest: Dustin Crum's 2019-2021 stretch, the first bowl win in school history and three straight .500-or-better seasons. That's the bar Mark Carney is trying to get back to, one turnaround season in.
A program mid-rebuild under a first-full-year head coach — the 2025 identity was resilience and a signature road win in overtime more than any settled scheme, with the real on-field identity still being written as Carney's staff gets a full offseason to install its system.
Kent State 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.03 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 5-7
Kent State: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
Mid-American Standing · 2025
Kent State is 9th of 13 in the Mid-American at 3-4. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Michigan | 7-1 |
| 2 | Ohio | 5-2 |
| 3 | Toledo | 5-2 |
| 4 | Central Michigan | 5-3 |
| 5 | Miami (OH) | 5-3 |
| 6 | Akron | 4-4 |
| 7 | Buffalo | 4-4 |
| 8 | Ball State | 3-4 |
| 9 | Kent State | 3-4 |
| 10 | Eastern Michigan | 2-5 |
| 11 | Bowling Green | 2-6 |
| 12 | Sacramento State | 0-0 |
| 13 | Massachusetts | 0-7 |
Coaching Era · Kent State
Mark Carney in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1923
Kent State and Akron, ten miles apart, have played for the Wagon Wheel trophy since the rivalry resumed after World War II. Akron won the 2024 meeting 38-17; Kent State reclaimed the trophy in 2025 with a 42-35 overtime win in Akron -- the signature moment of Mark Carney's turnaround season.
since 2006
Julian Edelman started at quarterback for Kent State from 2006-2008, throwing for almost 5,000 yards, before going on to a 12-year New England Patriots career, three Super Bowl rings, and Super Bowl LIII MVP honors. He was inducted into the Kent State Hall of Fame in 2015 and the Patriots Hall of Fame in 2025 -- the program's most famous alumnus by a wide margin.
since 2025
After a 1-23 record across 2023-2024 under Kenni Burns, who was fired in April 2025, offensive coordinator Mark Carney took over as interim head coach and was promoted to the full-time job on October 30, 2025. His 2025 team went 5-7 (4-4 MAC) -- more wins in one season than the previous two years combined.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2019
Kent State wins its first bowl game in program history under Dustin Crum
2024
Kenni Burns's tenure bottoms out at a combined 1-23 across 2023-2024, leading to his April 2025 firing
Wound
2025
Kent State beats Akron 42-35 in overtime to take back the Wagon Wheel trophy, the signature moment of Mark Carney's turnaround season
Moment of the Year · Kent State · 2025
Week 6 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2021 — loss 52-38 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-1.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
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