Kent State5-7

The model has Kent State at #133 — the fanbase hasn't weighed in yet.

Fanbase belief
Quiet
signal pending this week
The model
#133
CFB Zeitgeist · -9.4
✓ measured
2
identity shift

Kent State: the fanbase's identity shifting.

Mark Carney's 5-7 turnaround capped by reclaiming the Wagon Wheel from Akron offers a rare spark for a program mired in a 1-23 slide across 2023-2024.

Hope-Doping·Offseason

Kent State went 1-23 across two seasons, fired its coach, and turned to the guy already on staff -- who won five games in one year and took the Wagon Wheel back from Akron in overtime to prove it.

Standard GapThe Dustin Crum era (2019-2021, first-ever bowl win, three straight .500…

Kent State fans have watched the program get written off as a MAC afterthought during the 1-23 stretch -- and answered with a coach promoted from the same staff that presided over it, turning the rost…

offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

Roster Reload - Kent State

2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06
Returning Production11%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#128 nationally247 composite 456.2
Portal Additions11Primary repair: LB
Portal Losses15Primary pressure: OT
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#122Depth class
LBin 4 - Nate Gregory3.40out 2 - Nylan Brown3.50Need Filled
current room: 214 lbs avg (2025 roster)
RBin 3 - Jakorion Caffey3.30out 1 - Gavin Garcia3.49Need Filled
current room: 198 lbs avg (2025 roster)
WRin 1 - Javier Willis3.30out 2 - Cade Wolford4.00Downgrade
current room: 172 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 1 - Davion Pritchard3.40out 2 - Jaire Rawlinson3.50Downgrade
current room: 177 lbs avg (2025 roster)
QBin 1 - Ethan Thanthanavong3.30out 2 - CJ Montes3.40Downgrade
current room: 204 lbs avg (2025 roster)
OTin 0out 2 - Junior Diallo3.40Starter Risk
Belief EKG
L 7-30 vs Arizona State (Wk 1)W 26-23 vs Kennesaw State (Wk 2)L 16-55 vs Auburn (Wk 3)W 62-20 vs Bowling Green (Wk 4)L 0-48 vs Wisconsin (Wk 6)W 26-3 vs Akron (Wk 7)L 38-45 vs Ohio (Wk 8)L 16-23 vs Miami (OH) (Wk 9)L 33-35 vs Toledo (Wk 11)W 30-27 vs Buffalo (Wk 12)W 41-38 vs Ball State (Wk 13)W 34-26 vs Eastern Michigan (Wk 14)W 51-41 vs Utah State (Wk 17)HIGHLOW
2019 season · 7W-6L
WinLoss · hover for score

Approaching

30 days

until kickoff · at South Carolina · Sat Sep 5 · 16:45 UTC

The experience

Kent State went 1-23 across 2023-2024, fired Kenni Burns in April 2025, and turned to interim-then-permanent head coach Mark Carney -- who led a 5-7 turnaround with more wins in one season than the previous two combined, capped by reclaiming the Wagon Wheel from Akron in an overtime thriller.

Offense: PoorTempo: Explosive, big-playDefense: Poor
2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

Kent State faces significant roster turnover and recruiting challenges in 2026

With only 11% of returning players and a #122 recruiting rank, Kent State's 2026 season hinges on integrating 11 transfer additions while addressing key position needs.

  • Roster reloadKent State has only 11% of its roster returning, with 15 transfers leaving and 11 new transfers joining, creating a heavy reload scenario.
  • RecruitingKent State holds the #122 recruiting rank and has a recruiting score of 162.2, indicating limited talent acquisition in recent cycles.
  • ScheduleKent State's 2026 season begins with a challenging matchup against South Carolina on September 5, as part of a schedule with known opponents.
Data as of 2026-08-04 · Validated against program evidence

Flash is circling, waiting to strike.

Kent State · the story right now 6 storylines developing

What Kent State's offseason is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

program_outlookthis cycle~readnew

Kent State enters 2026 — the 5-7 record and bottom-quintile returning production highlight the steep climb ahead for Mark Carney in his first season at the helm.

what happenedKent State enters 2026 rated No. 130 in 2025 SP+ (-19.3). ✓ fact
the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
narrative tension · our read
identitythis cycle~readnew

Mark Carney's 5-7 turnaround capped by reclaiming the Wagon Wheel from Akron offers a rare spark for a program mired in a 1-23 slide across 2023-2024.

what happenedKent State: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew

Gavin Garcia does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.

narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew

Kent State enters 2025 at No. 130 in SP+ — Mark Carney's first season faces bottom-quintile production returning and a 5-7 record as the baseline.

what happenedKent State enters 2025 rated No. 130 in SP+ (-19.3). ✓ fact
the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle✓ factnew

Kent State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.

narrative tension · our read
coachingthis cycle~readnew

Carney, who led a 5-7 turnaround at Kent State, inherits an 11% production return and a program that’s been through three coaches in five years — the churn defines the challenge, not his credentials.

what happenedMark Carney took over as Kent State's head coach, replacing Kenni Burns. ✓ fact
the contextthe program's third head coach in five seasons
narrative tension · our read

How past storylines here turned out

AnsweredKent State's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downKent State's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
ReplacedKent State's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →

The Offseason Ledger · Kent State

1 verified update · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. News

    Stephen Daley returns to Indiana football

    Daley's injunction win sends him back to Bloomington — Kent State loses a blocking anchor from a depth class already ranked #122 nationally and sweating OT pressure heading into 2026.

Transfer portal snapshot

-14.7 net portal points
(raw ledger: -14.8 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
OT
-6.7
starter risk
LB
+6.3
need not filled
WR
-4.4
IOL
-3.6
low confidence
CB
-3.6
EDGE
-3.4
low confidence
QB
-3.4
S
+3.2
low confidence
RB
+2.8
need not filled
K
-1.0
low confidence
P
-1.0
low confidence

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Daiveon Taylor
LB · Aliquippa, PA
#1474 national
★★★☆☆
Lennox Lemon
CB · Massillon, OH
#1654 national
★★★☆☆
Zymir Reed
WR · Middletown, OH
#1846 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 12 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Fan vs. market
61st
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
3.5
Vegas O/U wins
(1st among FBS)
Fans 60pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 3.5
CFP championship#138 in field+100000
MAC title#10 in market+3000

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06

Kent State · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor2-10No postseason.
base4-8No postseason.
ceiling7-6Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · Kent State · Season outlook Confidence

Kent State is near the bottom of the model. The math is the story.

Kent State enters 2026 rated No. 130 in 2025 SP+ (-19.3). It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.

CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Kent State enters 2026 — the 5-7 record and bottom-quintile returning production highlight the steep climb ahead for Mark Carney in his first season at the helm.
Source of record: Kent State enters 2026 rated No. 130 in 2025 SP+ (-19.3) — bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards thin
📣Believers2 bullish items -- the case it's working.

The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.

“Carney, DeShields Headline Resurgent Kent State Football Team at 2026 MAC Kickoff”
KentStater · 2026-07-24 · read ↗
“Kent State Earns WBCA Academic Special Mention”
Kent State Golden Flashes · 2026-07-23 · read ↗
“Golden Flashes Open Fall Camp With Eyes on Continuity, Communication”
kentstatesports.com · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬The boards2 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.

Only 2 of 8 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.

"I know this game isn't over. But I'm happy with Kent's season. 4 wins with an interim coach and a roster that was considered to be the worst in FBS. And we got the wagon wheel back"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"He's had a lot of injuries. I think that's one of the reasons people could go after him if he enters the portal. For the record I assume any player that does well tries entering th"
r/CFB ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

Following now · Kent State · Developing Confidence

Kent State: the fanbase's identity shifting.

Kent State: the fanbase's identity shifting.

CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Mark Carney's 5-7 turnaround capped by reclaiming the Wagon Wheel from Akron offers a rare spark for a program mired in a 1-23 slide across 2023-2024.
Source of record: Kent State: the fanbase's identity shifting.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards thin
📣Believers2 bullish items -- the case it's working.

The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Carney, DeShields Headline Resurgent Kent State Football Team at 2026 MAC Kickoff”
KentStater · 2026-07-24 · read ↗
“Kent State Earns WBCA Academic Special Mention”
Kent State Golden Flashes · 2026-07-23 · read ↗
“Golden Flashes Open Fall Camp With Eyes on Continuity, Communication”
kentstatesports.com · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬The boards2 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.

Only 2 of 8 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.

"I know this game isn't over. But I'm happy with Kent's season. 4 wins with an interim coach and a roster that was considered to be the worst in FBS. And we got the wagon wheel back"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"He's had a lot of injuries. I think that's one of the reasons people could go after him if he enters the portal. For the record I assume any player that does well tries entering th"
r/CFB ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

Recent Form · last 10 games

Mixed

Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.

Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 4-6
The forecast

Opens Sep 5

vs South Carolina · away

Season line3.5 winsover -105
PoorExplosive, big-playPoor

✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style

Rival pulse

Akron
Uneasy
-20
Wagon Wheel

Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

18
OH · 13PA · 2IN · 1MD · 1MO · 1

OH leads the 2026 class with 13 commits. National footprint reaching 5 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

79 signees across 14 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] Kent State Defeats Merrimack 21-17
390 upvotes · Aug 2025
[Postgame Thread] Kent State Defeats UMass 42-6
172 upvotes · Oct 2025
[Postgame Thread] Buffalo Defeats Kent State 31-28
69 upvotes · Sep 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Class Autopsy
The 2022 class: 0 drafted so far, 61% never transferred. C
See the class →
National spotlight

8 games with TV coverage: 4 cable, 2 conference network, 2 streaming

Kickoff windows: 3 noon, 2 afternoon, 3 primetime

Fumble luck

Recovering 36% of the fumbles they've forced — running cold vs. the ~49% league rate.

4 of 11 forced fumbles recovered; 10 of 16 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.

Takeaway conversion

Converting 16% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.

6 interceptions of 38 disrupted passes (32 deflected, 6 intercepted), 2025 only.

Penalty battle

Winning the penalty battle: 73 penalties committed vs. 68 drawn on opponents, a 58-yard edge.

585 penalty yards committed vs. 643 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.

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