CFB Zeitgeist
June 22, 2026 · Dead Period · Heritage Window · 2026 Outlook

Kent State

5-7 2025 final

Kent State is the Mid-American program known for the golden flashes.

The Golden Flashes keep the faith.

Record
5-7
win% .416
SP+
-2.6
Bowl Odds
Season closed
Year-over-Year
5 wins
Dead PeriodOffseasonPatientPost-win — basking
The Long Wait·Offseason

Kent State enters the 2026 season at 5-7.

2025 Record5-7
offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

Offseason

69 days

until kickoff · Sun Aug 30 · 17:00 UTC

Act I

The 2026 Outlook

2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

Kent State faces a high-volatility season with heavy roster turnover and limited returning depth

The team returns just 11% of its roster, with significant transfer losses and a #93 recruiting class contributing to uncertainty. A balanced portal churn and low continuity suggest inconsistent performance.

  • Roster reloadKent State returns only 11% of its roster, with 15 transfers leaving and 11 arriving, creating a volatile environment.
  • RecruitingThe team's recruiting class ranks #93 nationally, indicating limited talent acquisition despite a moderate reload score.
Data as of 2026-06-22 · Validated against program evidence

Offseason Pulse · Kent State

Roster · Recruiting · Portal

Recruiting Class

#93 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite rating 155.4

Outside the recruiting top 60. Roster gaps must close via portal.

Returning Production

11%

2025 cycle · CFBD weighted

Heavy roster turnover. QB position open.

Talent Composite

#128 nationally

2025 cycle · 247 composite 456.2

Outside the talent top 60. The wins must be earned in development.

Portal Movement

11 in / 15 out

2026 cycle · in 11 / out 15

Incoming and outgoing movement are tracked separately in Roster Reload.

Kent State · the story right now 1 storyline developing

What Kent State's offseason is really about

the open questionwhere does it go from here?

this cycle✓ factnew

Kent State enters 2025 rated No. 130 in SP+ (-19.3).

the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
why it mattersKent State enters 2025 at No. 130 in SP+ — Mark Carney's first season faces bottom-quintile production returning and a 5-7 record as the baseline.
narrative tension · our read

Roster Reload - Kent State

2026 snapshot - 2026-06-22
Returning Production11%Low continuity / heavy reload
Portal Additions11Primary repair: LB
Portal Losses15Primary pressure: OT
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#93Depth class (#93)
LBin 4 - Hayden Dawahare3.40out 2 - Nylan Brown3.50Need Filled
RBin 3 - Jakorion Caffey3.30out 1 - Gavin Garcia3.49Need Filled
WRin 1 - Javier Willis3.30out 2 - Cade Wolford4.00Downgrade
CBin 1 - Davion Pritchard3.40out 2 - Jaire Rawlinson3.50Downgrade
QBin 1 - Ethan Thanthanavong3.30out 2 - CJ Montes3.40Downgrade
OTin 0out 2 - Junior Diallo3.40Starter Risk

The Pulse on Kent State

Quiet · dead period heritage · signal ramps back in camp
—
The Golden Flashes keep the faith.

What moved it — offseason · last 30 days

June Dead-period quiet — official-visit + heritage window —
Camp Fall camp ~40 days out
"Go Kent State" — Kent State fanbase · recurring line
5 mentions · awaiting signal

Five Lenses

What people are saying right now

The broader fanbase2 posts
Dee was my nervous, dorky ass’s first friend at Cardinal Mooney during my freshman year.…

CFB · 4d ago

News & campus coverage10 posts
Northrop football’s Camden Day picks Kent State - WANE 15

News · 3d ago

Aspiration Ladder

Brief Part III §33.4 · Kent State

Bowl eligibility (6 wins)—

The baseline goal for a program at this stage.

Beat a rival—

The narrative win the season is graded by.

Statement year—

Exceed last season by 2+ wins.

Conference championshipLocked—

Out of reach without a transformative year.

Kent State · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor3-9No postseason.
base5-7No postseason.
ceiling8-5Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 3.5
CFP championship#134 in field+100000
MAC title#10 in market+3000

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-06-22

Recruiting Reload - Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Daiveon Taylor
LB · Pittsburgh, PA
#1196 national
★★★☆☆
Lennox Lemon
CB · Massillon, OH
#1750 national
★★★☆☆
Zymir Reed
WR · Middletown, OH
#1750 national

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

18
OH · 13PA · 2IN · 1MD · 1MO · 1

OH leads the 2026 class with 13 commits. National footprint reaching 5 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

63 signees across 12 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles
Act II

Who We Are

Program Prestige · Kent State

Mid-Major Contender

Mid-Major Contender — G5 force with occasional national attention.

T1Regional
T2Mid-Major
T3Power
T4National
T5Blue Blood
T6Dynasty
T7All-Time

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Kent State

CFB Zeitgeist

#108

-2.6

SP+

#130

-19.3

FPI

#133

-19.6

Elo

#134

1001

SRS

#125

-16.1

The national models put Kent State between 125th and 134th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is higher on them than any of these models, at 108th.

National rank of 136 FBS teams · 2025 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Most Similar Programs · Kent State

Reads Like

MarylandAdjacent tierUConnAdjacent tierVanderbiltAdjacent tier

Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.

Coaching Era · Kent State

Mark Carney

Mark Carney took over from Kenni Burns for the 2025 season.

Era Mark Carney · 2025–presentPrev: Kenni Burns (2023–2024)
1 year · era

Fanbase Health Index · Kent State · medium confidence

Stable (49)

DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 5-7 (42% win rate)53
Volume — 5 effective signal-N44

Home-Field Advantage · Kent State · 2018-present

Elite

51% home win rate vs 18% on the road. margin runs +22.9 better at home.

Home14-13Away7-30

Chronicle Visuals

5 deterministic SVG · provenance-gated
2026 preview

A heavy-turnover 2025: 11% returning (below average), with the offense the biggest question.

A heavy-turnover 2025: 11% returning (below average), with the offense the biggest question.Offense is the stress point for 2025. Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average (dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidenceRETURNING PRODUCTION · 2025A heavy-turnover 2025: 11% returning(below average), with the offense thebiggest question.QB roomQB room: 0% returning0%OffenseOffense: 11% returning11%OverallOverall: 11% returning11%▸ Offense is the stress point for 2025.Source: CFB Index — returning production vs the FBS average(dashed = league avg) · 2025 · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

The portal upgraded the LB room but opened a hole at CB.

The portal upgraded the LB room but opened a hole at CB.Net -4 · upgraded LB · hole at CB. Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position (count) · 2026 · 11 in / 15 out · high confidenceTRANSFER PORTAL · 2026The portal upgraded the LB room butopened a hole at CB.OUTINCBCB: 2 out2CB: 1 in1net -1EDGEEDGE: 1 out1net -1IOLIOL: 1 out1net -1KK: 1 out1net -1LBLB: 2 out2LB: 4 in4net +2OTOT: 2 out2net -2PP: 1 out1net -1QBQB: 2 out2QB: 1 in1net -1RBRB: 1 out1RB: 3 in3net +2SS: 1 in1net +1WRWR: 2 out2WR: 1 in1net -1▸ Net -4 · upgraded LB · hole at CB.Source: CFB Index — transfer portal in/out by position(count) · 2026 · 11 in / 15 out · high confidence
model-confident
2026 preview

Kent State converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.

Kent State converts recruit talent into draft picks better than its class rank suggests.Talent 3th, draft yield 20th among 132 programs. Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield · 2025 · 132 programs · high confidenceKENT STATE · TALENT YIELDKent State converts recruit talent intodraft picks better than its class ranksuggests.Recruit talent (percentile) →Draft yield (percentile) →Georgia — 99 / 99 pctileBaylor — 73 / 35 pctileWashington State — 28 / 64 pctileCentral Michigan — 8 / 43 pctileOld Dominion — 7 / 51 pctileKent State — 3 / 20 pctileKent StateWashington StateOld DominionCentral MichiganGeorgiaBaylor▸ Talent 3th, draft yield 20th among 132 programs.Source: CFB Index — recruit talent vs draft-pick yield ·2025 · 132 programs · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

Calm on the surface in 2024 — but the weekly trend ran the wrong way.

Calm on the surface in 2024 — but the weekly trend ran the wrong way.calm on the surface, but trending the wrong way. Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 10 games · high confidenceTHE WEEK-TO-WEEK RIDE · 2024Calm on the surface in 2024 — but theweekly trend ran the wrong way.Game 1: -0.27 power swingGame 2: -0.27 power swingGame 3: -1.98 power swingGame 4: -1.98 power swingGame 5: -0.54 power swingGame 6: -0.54 power swingGame 7: -0.97 power swingGame 8: -0.97 power swingGame 9: -1.23 power swingGame 10: -1.23 power swing-2.0▲ stock-up week▼ stock-down week▸ calm on the surface, but trending the wrong way.Source: CFB Index — per-game power-rating swings · 2024 · 10games · high confidence
model-confident
2024 season

L 0-71 vs Tennessee leads the season's top 5 results by combined power and résumé delta.

L 0-71 vs Tennessee leads the season's top 5 results by combined power and résumé delta.L 0-71 vs Tennessee is the biggest mover. Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power + résumé impact · top 5 games · medium confidenceSTATEMENT WINS · TOP 5 RESULTSL 0-71 vs Tennessee leads the season'stop 5 results by combined power andrésumé delta.L 0-71 vs TennesseeL 0-71 vs Tennessee — -0.13 résumé impactL 0-71 vs Tennessee — -0.13 résumé impact-0.13L 24-55 vs PittsburghL 24-55 vs Pittsburgh — -0.27 résumé impact-0.27L 0-56 vs Penn StateL 0-56 vs Penn State — -0.94 résumé impact-0.94L 33-52 vs Eastern MichiganL 33-52 vs Eastern Michigan — -1.21 résumé impact-1.21L 17-23 vs St. Francis (PA)L 17-23 vs St. Francis (PA) — -2.38 résumé impact-2.38▸ L 0-71 vs Tennessee is the biggest mover.Source: CFB Index — results ranked by combined power +résumé impact · top 5 games · medium confidence
solid read
How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
FOLLOWING NOW · KENT STATE · SEASON OUTLOOK Confidence

Kent State is near the bottom of the model. The math is the story.

Kent State enters 2025 rated No. 130 in SP+ (-19.3). It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. SP+ is a tempo-free efficiency model — it describes what the program HAS done. The season is the test of whether it's still true. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.

bullish — but with real dissent where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers6 bull takes
CFB INDEX READ · our read
Kent State enters 2025 at No. 130 in SP+ — Mark Carney's first season faces bottom-quintile production returning and a 5-7 record as the baseline.
Source of record: Kent State enters 2025 rated No. 130 in SP+ (-19.3) — bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season.

Every line is a door. Evidence opens in place — verbatim outlet headlines for news sources, verbatim fan text attributed to the community not the individual (never a username). Works with JavaScript off.

HOW EACH ROOM IS REACTING — TAP TO EXPAND
The Believers bullishThe Skeptics dissent
📣THE BELIEVERS3 commit/visit items — individual pipeline moves, not class-level reaction.›

The optimistic read: recruiting wins, momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Camden Day full interview on commitment to Kent State football program”
WANE 15 · 2026-06-19 · read ↗
“Texas earns third transfer commitment in Kent State OF Sawyer Solitaria”
On3 · 2026-06-19 · read ↗
“Traverse City West’s Aiden Jacobs commits to Kent State”
9and10News.com · 2026-06-19 · read ↗
🧐THE SKEPTICS“Ranking Ohio State football's 2026 games from easiest to toughes” — the real counter.›

The analytical counter: rankings, results and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

“Ranking Ohio State football's 2026 games from easiest to toughest”
The Columbus Dispatch · 2026-06-16 · read ↗
Act III

Last Season Reviewed

2025 season · tap to expand

Recent Form · last 10 games

Mixed

Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.

Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 4-6

Season Standing · 2025 · 5-7

FBS sub-.500

Kent State: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.

Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff

Mid-American Standing · 2025

9th in the Mid-American

Kent State is 9th of 13 in the Mid-American at 5-7. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.

#ProgramRecord
1Western Michigan10-4
2Ohio9-4
3Toledo8-5
4Sacramento State7-5
5Central Michigan7-6
6Miami (OH)7-7
7Akron5-7
8Buffalo5-7
9Kent State5-7
10Ball State4-8
11Bowling Green4-8
12Eastern Michigan4-8
13Massachusetts0-12

Schedule Strength · Kent State · 2025

Brutal

Average opponent win rate 44% across 12 finalized games. 3 AP top-25 opponents played (Florida State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech).

Opp Win %0.440
Top-253
Top-103

Top Players · 2025

2025
1. Mason Woods LB 94.0 tot (def)
2. CJ Young DB 89.0 tot (def)
3. Joel Cordoba DB 66.0 tot (def)
4. Jaire Rawlison CB 52.0 tot (def)
5. Dru Deshields QB 2,030 yds (pass)

Moment of the Year · Kent State · 2025

Lost 0-44 at Oklahoma

Week 6 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.

Decisive Marginvs Top-5 (#5)

From the Archive — Kent State

2022: Won 31-24 vs Ohio

In 2022, the program won 31-24 vs Ohio — a tight home result that left the 7-point margin on the books.

Go Golden Flashes.