Kent State at Ohio State
Kent State (1‑1) at Ohio State (#6, 1‑1) — Ohio State is favored by 53. The model gives Ohio State a 98% shot.
How they got here
Last two games
Kent State · 1-1
Picked #122 in the preseason · now #132.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 36–15 vs Wofford #198 of 669
won by 21 as a 10-point favorite
L 0–57 @ South Carolina #16 of 669
lost by 57 as a 35.5-point underdog
Last two games
Ohio State · 1-1
Picked #4 in the preseason · now #1 — about right.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 23–24 @ TexasTop 25 #4 of 669
lost by 1 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 56–3 vs Ball State #145 of 669
won by 53 as a 51-point favorite
What’s at stake
Kent State
- Kent State is coming off a 21-point win.
Ohio State
- Ohio State sits at 68% to make the CFP field — 68% with a win here, 54% with a loss.
- Ohio State is the Midwest's standing answer — the program that does not ask permission to be in the conversation.
The series
Ohio State leads the series 3-0
3 meetings since 2002 · Ohio State has won the last 3
- 2014Ohio State 66–0
- 2007Ohio State 48–3
- 2002Ohio State 51–17
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Kent State
The chip · vs the national mediaKent State fans have watched the program get written off as a MAC afterthought during the 1-23 stretch -- and answered with a coach promoted from the same staff that presided over it, turning the roster around fast enough to reclaim the Wagon Wheel in overtime.
What this game touches
The 1-23 stretch under Kenni Burns. Kent State won a single game combined across the 2023 and 2024 seasons before Burns was fired in April 2025 -- one of the worst two-year stretches in modern MAC history, and the standard every Mark Carney win is measured against.
Ohio State
The chip · vs the national mediaFans here believe the take that the titles are hollow as long as Michigan owns The Game — a narrative the 2024 championship was supposed to silence and somehow didn't. In Columbus, the asterisk is the rivalry, not the trophy.
Best players
Kent State
- Rocco Nicholl (LB) · 13 tackles
- Atiq Muhammad (DB) · 12 tackles
- Hayden Dawahare (LB) · 10 tackles
Ohio State
- Jeremiah Smith (WR) · 315 receiving yards — Heisman odds: 2nd (+650)
- Earl Little II (S) · 15 tackles
- Julian Sayin (QB) · 598 passing yards — Heisman odds: 8th (+1400)
The line, and the room
Kent State fans are feeling better about their season (72nd percentile) than Ohio State fans are (25th) — even with Ohio State favored here.
Home −53 · O/U 58.5
Conditions
85°F · 4 mph wind
Ohio State is worth +6.0 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 80th percentile.
94% at home, 86% on the road against FBS opponents (50–3 home, 30–5 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.5 at home vs. away over 73 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 119 miles to get here.
Recent games
Ohio State
- Wk 1Wvs Ball State56-3
- Wk 2Lat Texas23-24
Kent State
- Wk 1Lat South Carolina0-57
- Wk 2Wvs Wofford36-15