Ohio State at Texas
Fan take
Ohio State fans
Texas fans
How they got here
Last three games · 2025 season
Ohio State · 12-2
Picked #4 in the preseason · now #5 — about right.
1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.
L 14–24 vs MiamiTop 25 #5 of 668
lost by 10 as a 8-point favorite
L 10–13 vs IndianaTop 25 #5 of 668
lost by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 27–9 @ MichiganTop 25 #27 of 668
won by 18 as a 9.5-point favorite
W 42–9 vs Rutgers #87 of 668
won by 33 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 48–10 vs UCLA #76 of 668
won by 38 as a 33-point favorite
W 34–10 @ Purdue #120 of 668
won by 24 as a 29-point favorite
W 38–14 vs Penn StateTop 25 #12 of 668
won by 24 as a 18-point favorite
W 34–0 @ Wisconsin #89 of 668
won by 34 as a 24.5-point favorite
W 34–16 @ IllinoisTop 25 #37 of 668
won by 18 as a 15-point favorite
W 42–3 vs Minnesota #51 of 668
won by 39 as a 23.5-point favorite
W 24–6 @ WashingtonTop 25 #38 of 668
won by 18 as a 9-point favorite
W 37–9 vs Ohio #60 of 668
won by 28 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 70–0 vs Grambling #134 of 668
won by 70 as a 51.5-point favorite
W 14–7 vs TexasTop 25 #3 of 668
won by 7 as a 2-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Texas · 10-3
Picked #5 in the preseason · now #3 — about right.
Three straight wins, capped by a 10-point win over Texas A&M as a 2.5-point underdog.
W 41–27 vs MichiganTop 25 #31 of 668
won by 14 as a 4.5-point favorite
W 27–17 vs Texas A&MTop 25 #16 of 668
won by 10 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 52–37 vs Arkansas #51 of 668
won by 15 as a 8.5-point favorite
L 10–35 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #6 of 668
lost by 25 as a 4-point underdog
W 34–31 vs VanderbiltTop 25 #25 of 668
won by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 45–38 @ Mississippi State #64 of 668
won by 7 as a 8-point favorite
W 16–13 @ Kentucky #73 of 668
won by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 23–6 vs OklahomaTop 25 #22 of 668
won by 17 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 21–29 @ FloridaTop 25 #19 of 668
lost by 8 as a 4.5-point favorite
W 55–0 vs Sam Houston #137 of 668
won by 55 as a 39.5-point favorite
W 27–10 vs UTEP #114 of 668
won by 17 as a 40.5-point favorite
W 38–7 vs San José State #84 of 668
won by 31 as a 36.5-point favorite
L 7–14 @ Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 668
lost by 7 as a 2-point underdog
What’s at stake
Make the CFP field
Texas projected #7 seed · Ohio State projected #4 seed
Win the conference
Win it all
CFP odds as of September 13, 2026
The series
The series is tied 3-3
6 meetings since 2005 · Texas won the last meeting
- 2026Texas 24–23
- 2025Ohio State 14–7
- 2024 · neutral siteOhio State 28–14
- 2008 · neutral siteTexas 24–21
- 2006Ohio State 24–7
Best players
Ohio State
- Jeremiah Smith (WR) · 315 receiving yards — Heisman odds: 6th (+650)
- Earl Little II (S) · 15 tackles
- Julian Sayin (QB) · 598 passing yards — Heisman odds: 9th (+1200)
Texas
- Jelani McDonald (DB) · 15 tackles
- Rasheem Biles (LB) · 13 tackles
- Arch Manning (QB) · 501 passing yards — Heisman odds: 2nd (+800)
The line, and the room
Texas fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (69th percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
Home −2.5 · O/U 50.5
Conditions
97°F · 8 mph wind · Clear
Texas is worth +7.4 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 95th percentile.
83% at home, 62% on the road against FBS opponents (43–9 home, 21–13 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.0 at home vs. away over 67 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,066 miles to get here.
Ohio State 23 – Texas 24
Called it — picked Texas to win.
The thread's loudest minute was 00:30 — 139 comments, 19.9× its usual pace.
comments / minute
Comments per minute in the r/CFB game thread, 22:30–00:31 UTC (864 collected). The chart ends where the collected thread ends.
- BoxThe line
Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State): 8 rec · 164 yds · 1 TD
Top 1% receiving yards game since 2021.“Whatever happens, we have got the Jeremiah Smith, and they have not.” - Hilaire Bellocr/CFB game thread · ▲ 1
Win-probability model: CollegeFootballData.
Recent games
Texas
- Wk 1Wvs Texas State59-7
Ohio State
- Wk 1Wvs Ball State56-3
Trajectory
Texas handled Ohio State 24-23, matching the pregame favorite.