Texas 24-23 Ohio State (Sep 12, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Ohio State · Texas

No. 1 Ohio State1-123

No. 4 Texas2-024Final

Sat, Sep 12 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas · Crowd 105,044

No. 4 Texas beat No. 1 Ohio State 24-23 after its win chance fell to 3%.

Winners have been down to 3% or less in about 1 of every 55 games since 2018.

We had Texas favored. It won.

Next: Ohio State beat Kent State 59-3, Sat Sep 19

Next: Texas beat UTSA 30-6, Sat Sep 19

Top comment in the game thread

Another Arch Manning interception, he needs to stop passing to wide open recievers

Q1 10:15 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 12

How it swung

The turning point: Smothers 1-yd TD run, Texas goes ahead 24-23 (Q4, 0:25). Texas went from 39% to 93% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Texas a 57% chance, and the closing betting line (Texas was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.

21 unanswered

Texas · Q4 0:25

FinalTexas 24-23 Ohio StateTexas wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 3:57Special teams43-yd punt, Inniss returns it 16Texas 43% → 22% (−21)
2Q4 0:25Smothers 1-yd TD run, Texas goes ahead 24-23Texas 39% → 93% (+54)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 3:57Special teams43-yd punt, Inniss returns it 16Ohio State 57% → 78% (+21)
2Q4 0:25Smothers 1-yd TD run, Texas goes ahead 24-23Ohio State 61% → 7% (−54)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 10:15Manning pass intercepted by McClain despite receiver being openQuoted at the top of the page.
Q1 4:43Fans mock Arch Manning for freezing and taking a sack instead of throwing the ball awayIn all fairness, both of those turnovers were pretty random and not really arches fault. I type this as he allows himself to get sacked for 10 yard loss so wtfr/CFB game thread
Q2 0:10Ohio State scores a touchdown to lead 20-3 with 10 seconds left in the first halfTexas should score some touchdowns before this game gets out of hand They won’t, but they shouldr/CFB game thread
Q4 4:16Ohio State fans lament Hawkins' missed field goal as Texas takes possessionOhio State needs to invest in a good kicker. FFSr/CFB game threadReally? No pi again?r/CFB game thread

Texas’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Texas -2.5), at 65% for Texas (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Texas or Ohio State flair (2,799 and 8,288); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Texas’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Texas scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Ohio State on 5 of its 11.

Texas’s drives are teal, Ohio State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Ohio State’s side

Ohio State’s best moment: 43-yd punt, Inniss returns it 16 (Q1 3:57). It lifted Ohio State’s win chance by 21 points.

How Ohio State fans took it: “Congrats Texas, good win” r/CFB game thread

“what is the point on not running the clock down bruh”

A Texas fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans peaked right at the end.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was firestorm.

Written off

“Archbis cooked. Playing terrified now”

A Texas fan, when Texas’s chance of winning was 3% in the third quarter

Texas won 24-23.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Texas fans

wingo“If any of these products can make Ryan Wingo catch I’ll buy the goddamn company”

drop“Will Muschamp was responsible for The 2008 TTU Int drop The 2009 blowout The 2010 defense disaster class”

false“Its a long game but that was a false start and illegal motion right?”

catch“I thought the WR is supposed to let the ball go through their hands? Or catch it and fling it in the air”

Ohio State fans

sayin“There's a reason why Sayin was a heisman finalist and Arch was at home. There's levels to this.”

kicker“He's been around long enough to know an osu kicker is forbidden to make a fg in crunch time”

field“A Buckeye made a 45+ yard field goal? I don't know how to process this.”

second half“Pretty confused by the clock management at the end of that game, but we got outplayed in the second half no question.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, ball, call, back.

The winner fell to 3%.

What it cost

Ohio State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 83% to 75%.

Make the playoff

Ohio State · lost83% → ▼75%

Texas · won78% → ▲84%

Win the conference

Ohio State · lost42% → ▼40%

Texas · won19% → ▼18%

Win the title

Ohio State · lost14% → ▼13%

Texas · won10% → ▲11%

Before the game (September 11, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Texas 24, Ohio State 23

Ohio State covered +2.5 by 1.5. The total, 47, stayed under 50.5.

Team totals	Ohio State	Texas
Total yards	372	336
Passing	17 of 32, 278 yds	23 of 37, 195 yds
Rushing	31 for 94 yds	41 for 141 yds
First downs	19	25
Third down	6 of 14	9 of 16
Fourth down	0 of 1	2 of 3
Turnovers	1	2
Penalties	4 for 35 yds	2 for 12 yds
Time of possession	28:32	31:28

Ohio State leaders

Passing Julian Sayin 17 of 32, 278 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Bo Jackson 19 for 74 yds; Ja'Kobi Jackson 5 for 20 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Jeremiah Smith 8 for 164 yds, 1 TD; Bo Jackson 4 for 37 yds

Texas leaders

Passing Arch Manning 23 of 37, 195 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Daylan Smothers 21 for 74 yds, 2 TD; Raleek Brown 10 for 54 yds
Receiving Emmett Mosley V 5 for 65 yds; Emaree Winston 3 for 39 yds

No rain and calm

95° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 8 mph from the southeast, gusts to 24

The usual here around this date is 84°, with about 7 in 10 games between 77° and 92°.

September game-day temperatures at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:25 left10:08 p.m.

Ohio State 23, Texas 24 · Texas 93% to win

no rain · 87°

Smothers 1-yd TD run, Texas goes ahead 24-23

Measured at Austin - City/camp Mabry airport, 3.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Ohio State · 12-2

Rated 4th in our preseason ratings, 4th now.

1-2 in its last three, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 14-24 vs MiamiTop 25 #6 of 667

lost by 10 as a 7.5-point favorite

L 10-13 vs IndianaTop 25 #4 of 667

lost by 3 as a 5.5-point favorite

W 27-9 @ MichiganTop 25 #26 of 667

won by 18 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 42-9 vs Rutgers #84 of 667

won by 33 as a 28.5-point favorite

W 48-10 vs UCLA #64 of 667

won by 38 as a 32.5-point favorite

W 34-10 @ Purdue #90 of 667

won by 24 as a 30.5-point favorite

W 38-14 vs Penn StateTop 25 #20 of 667

won by 24 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 34-0 @ Wisconsin #82 of 667

won by 34 as a 24.5-point favorite

W 34-16 @ IllinoisTop 25 #41 of 667

won by 18 as a 15.5-point favorite

W 42-3 vs Minnesota #47 of 667

won by 39 as a 23.5-point favorite

W 24-6 @ WashingtonTop 25 #30 of 667

won by 18 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 37-9 vs Ohio #73 of 667

won by 28 as a 28.5-point favorite

W 70-0 vs Grambling #191 of 667

won by 70 as a 51.5-point favorite

W 14-7 vs TexasTop 25 #3 of 667

won by 7 as a 1.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Texas · 10-3

Rated 5th in our preseason ratings, 5th now.

Three straight wins, including a 10-point win over Texas A&M as a 2.5-point underdog.

W 41-27 vs MichiganTop 25 #30 of 667

won by 14 as a 4-point favorite

W 27-17 vs Texas A&MTop 25 #16 of 667

won by 10 as a 2.5-point underdog

W 52-37 vs Arkansas #32 of 667

won by 15 as a 10.5-point favorite

L 10-35 @ GeorgiaTop 25 #4 of 667

lost by 25 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 34-31 vs VanderbiltTop 25 #25 of 667

won by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 45-38 @ Mississippi State #41 of 667

won by 7 as an 8.5-point favorite

W 16-13 @ Kentucky #45 of 667

won by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite

W 23-6 vs OklahomaTop 25 #16 of 667

won by 17 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 21-29 @ FloridaTop 25 #18 of 667

lost by 8 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 55-0 vs Sam Houston #148 of 667

won by 55 as a 39.5-point favorite

W 27-10 vs UTEP #95 of 667

won by 17 as a 40.5-point favorite

W 38-7 vs San José State #104 of 667

won by 31 as a 36.5-point favorite

L 7-14 @ Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 667

lost by 7 as a 1.5-point underdog

Week by week

Texas

Wk 1Wvs Texas State59-7

Ohio State

Wk 1Wvs Ball State56-3

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Texas’s rushing EPA against Ohio State, 82 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Texas’s EPA/play against Ohio State’s defense
Texas offense, 20th percentile · Ohio State defense, 95th
Texas’s rushing EPA against Ohio State’s defense
Texas offense, 10th percentile · Ohio State defense, 92nd
Texas’s explosive plays against Ohio State’s defense
Texas offense, 28th percentile · Ohio State defense, 79th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Ohio StateTexas

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Ohio State leads the series 3-2

5 meetings since 2005 · Ohio State has won the last 2

2025Ohio State 14-7
2024 · neutral siteOhio State 28-14
2008 · neutral siteTexas 24-21
2006Ohio State 24-7
2005Texas 25-22

Each line is Texas’s chance to win through that meeting. Texas is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Texas fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (66th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Texas favored by 2.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

Texas by 2.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Texas.

The books’ cut: 4.1%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 98° at kickoff.

Ohio State at Texas · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin

98°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
56weather score, Rough
Tiedfor the best of the day's 5 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's five kickoff times. At DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium that day, a 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 58, against 56 at 6 pm.

11 am: 46, Harsh
2:30 pm: 35, Harsh
3:15 pm: 36, Harsh
6 pm: 56, Rough (this game)
6:45 pm: 58, Rough

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Texas is worth +7.3 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 95th percentile.

81% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (44-10 home, 22-13 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.4 at home vs. away over 89 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,066 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Ohio State 14, Texas 7Aug 30, 2025

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2025.

No. 4 Texas upsets No. 1 Ohio State 24-23