4Ohio: the fanbase's identity shifting.
Brian Smith begins his tenure at Ohio with a 9-4 record anchoring a program defined by its historic identity and shifting fanbase expectations.
4Brian Smith begins his tenure at Ohio with a 9-4 record anchoring a program defined by its historic identity and shifting fanbase expectations.
Ohio just won its seventh straight bowl game — the second-longest active streak in the country — under its third head coach in three years, a quietly relentless program that loses its coaches to bigger jobs and keeps winning anyway.
Athens doesn't carry a grudge so much as a quiet pride: the Bobcats keep getting their coaches stolen by bigger programs, and they keep reloading and winning bowls. The fanbase has stopped apologizing…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at Nebraska · Sat Sep 5 · 16:00 UTC
Ohio is the MAC program whose Frank Solich tenure + Tim Albin continuation + Peden Stadium hill setting define what historic-southeast-Ohio football looks like.
With a recruiting rank of #107 and a balanced portal churn, Ohio faces challenges in maintaining consistency. The team's moderate continuity and reliance on transfer additions could determine its success in a competitive conference.
Rufus the Bobcat is patient.
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Ohio dropped 21 spots in SP+ — the 9-4 record and 126th talent rank create a split screen between recent success and the challenge of sustaining it under first-year coach Brian Smith.
Brian Smith inherits Tim Albin's 9-4 foundation with 65% production returning and Peden Stadium's historic expectations weighing on his first season.
John Hauser inherits a 9-4 program with 65% production returning, but the 126th talent rank and 97% QB continuity demand he prove historic Southeast Ohio football can thrive beyond legacy names.
Brian Smith begins his tenure at Ohio with a 9-4 record anchoring a program defined by its historic identity and shifting fanbase expectations.
John Hauser inherits a 9-4 winning record and a coordinator-driven reshaping of units as Ohio seeks to redefine its historic-southeast-Ohio identity in the MAC.
Chase Hendricks is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Sieh Bangura converts 3rd/4th-and-short at an elite rate.
John Hauser begins his first season at Ohio with a 9-4 record anchoring a program seeking to redefine its identity under new leadership.
'5-to-play-5' rule applied to Ohio State players
The '5-to-play-5' rule means Ohio gets bodies from Columbus that wouldn't have looked at Athens twice — for a WR room ranked 121st nationally, that pipeline matters more than any portal bid.
Jett Harrison commits to Ohio State
Smith's first full class at Ohio sits at #121 nationally — Harrison fills a WR room under genuine pressure, but the MAC rebuild needs volume, not just one piece.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
81st percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Ohio · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Ohio enters 2026 rated No. 84 in 2025 SP+ (-4.0), down 21 spots from 2024. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
This event was in 27 of 134 board posts (20%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (66 posts): 20% positive · 65% neutral · 15% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Brian Smith took over as Ohio's head coach, replacing Tim Albin. It is replaces 4-year head coach Tim Albin (31-19). It's not the hire that's the story anymore — it's everything it set in motion. The room has bought in, but early believers have been wrong before.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Opens Sep 5
vs Nebraska · away
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
OH leads the 2026 class with 13 commits. National footprint reaching 6 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
69 signees across 20 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
10 games with TV coverage: 3 ESPN, 4 cable, 1 conference network, 2 streaming
Kickoff windows: 4 noon, 2 afternoon, 4 primetime
Recovering 33% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~51% league rate.
3 of 9 own fumbles recovered themselves; 4 of 7 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Converting 24% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
10 interceptions of 42 disrupted passes (32 deflected, 10 intercepted), 2025 only.
Losing the penalty battle: 80 penalties committed vs. 57 drawn on opponents, a 129-yard deficit.
628 penalty yards committed vs. 499 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 7 corners
One voice
Every cohort from the die-hards to the analytics crowd lands within 0.03 of each other — a rare consensus. The loudest voice in the room:
Beyond the Box Score: Why the Buckeyes being ranked No. 1 in the Preseason Coaches Poll Does matter
landgrantholyland.com →How Ohio fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Ohio beat West Virginia West Virginia beat Pitt The MAC is better than the ACC
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readOhio fans are cautiously optimistic, with almost nothing concrete behind it yet.
✓ counted We read 66 posts from Ohio fans this week.
“If you see that kind of body language from your 14 year old kicker you just have to know you need a TD. That kid was having an internal panic attack two full mins before they even sent him out for the game winner.”— r/CFB
“You guys will be fine. Offense looked great and Ohio is a really good football team. Don't sweat it”— r/CFB
“The problem that you guys have is that Miami (even if they don’t beat Toledo), Western and Ohio all have layups left after this week and yall still have Toledo.”— r/CFB
“* UMass has never won a football game against Ohio. * Tonight's margin of victory is tied (28 points) for all-time highest in the series (2013 score: 51-23). * This is the second lowest amount of points Ohio has scored in a game vs. UMass (2012 score: 37-34). * Ohio has a home…”— r/CFB
“Brian Kelly trotted out the worst gameplan against yall last year too, it was frustrating to watch the 47th screen.”— r/CFB
Fanbase Health Index · Ohio · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.28 EPA/play | 13 | 13 | 188 / 303 | 62.0 | 2375 #73 FBS | 7.8 | 14 | 11 | 135.9 | 57.7 | 6.3 | 6.5 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage34.7% 88th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry5.5 93th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Parker Navarro's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.12 EPA/play | 5 | 13 | 240 | 1392 #6 FBS | 5.8 | 15 #13 FBS | 49 | 16.3 | 21.3 | 8.9 | 14.8 | 5.5% (15/274) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.8 69th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share5.1% bottom 16th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Sieh Bangura's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.09 EPA/play | 6 | 13 | 120 | 585 | 4.9 | 8 | 66 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 6.9 | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 186 of 349 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2024 class View Duncan Brune's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.66 EPA/play | 7 | 12 | 71 | 1037 #15 FBS | 14.6 | 7 #38 FBS | 67 | 14.4 | 18.5 | 39.8% (109/274) | |
Yards by week → Slot TechnicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume71 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)66.1 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 1st to 58th to 97th percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.59 EPA/play | 11 | 10 | 30 | 419 | 14.0 | 2 | 49 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 14.2% (39/274) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.6 64th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.6 67th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Rodney Harris II's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.54 EPA/play | 85 | 13 | 27 | 285 | 10.6 | 3 | 30 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 12.4% (34/274) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception12.4 66th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume27 66th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mason Williams's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.04 EPA/play | 88 | 9 | 12 | 162 | 13.5 | 0 | 35 | 3.8 | 3 | 7.3% (20/274) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception5.9 bottom 3th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.0 bottom 5th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caleb Gossett's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.16 EPA/play | 19 | 7 | 11 | 119 | 10.8 | 0 | 35 | 3 | 3.8 | 6.2% (17/274) | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.16 EPA/play | 3 | 4 | 7 | 86 | 12.3 | 0 | 24 | 7.5 | 6.5 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Red-Zone Weapon · +0.97 EPA/play | 86 | 8 | 8 | 78 | 9.8 | 2 | 16 | 3.3 | 3.4 | — | |
Yards by week → Red-Zone WeaponThe first read called near the goal line — size and catch radius do the rest. 12 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate25.0% 98th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.0 91th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jake Bruno's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.69 EPA/play | 12 | 4 | 6 | 75 | 12.5 | 0 | 25 | 2.3 | 1.4 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 15 | 11 | 33 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.3% 91th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Anas Luqman's full player page | |||||||
| Finisher | 12 | 11 | 28 | 15 | 8 | 6 #74 FBS | 4 |
FinisherTurns pressure into sacks — when he gets there, he finishes. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 16 of 200 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Pressure-to-sack conversion0.6 79th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jay Crable's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 44 | 11 | 28 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior View Nehemiah Dukes's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 10 | 8 | 22 | 12 | 2.5 | 0 | 4 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight325 lb 93th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Pius Odjugo's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 57 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate6.2% bottom 19th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Nathan Hale's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 11 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.4% 53th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Evan Herrmann's full player page | |||||||
| 97 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 98 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1.5 | 3 | |
| 16 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| 99 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 30 | 10 | 63 | 32 | 31 | 3 | 1.5 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume63 67th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate4.8% bottom 26th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Charlie Christopher's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 25 | 8 | 62 | 24 | 38 | 5 | 1.5 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.8% 79th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume62 65th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Michael Molnar's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 27 | 8 | 54 | 25 | 29 | 3 | 0.5 | 5 | 1 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.3% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.9% bottom 29th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 0th percentile to the 65th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 24 | 10 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior View Cameron Hollobaugh's full player page | |||||||||
| — | 8 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 22 | 13 | 86 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume86 98th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readTwo-star recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readReinvented: changed shape entirely — Hybrid Nickel to Box Safety, his CFB Index score now sits at the 78th percentile among FBS Ss, up from the 9th | |||||||
| Box Safety | 5 | 12 | 75 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume75 94th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 34th to 69th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Box Safety | 2 | 12 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume55 73th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View DJ Walker's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 7 | 11 | 49 | 8 #45 FBS | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Perimeter Tackler· Takeaway threatTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Tank Pearson's full player pageTackle volume49 92th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 9 | 9 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 4th percentile to the 62nd among FBS CBs | |||||||
| 3 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 29 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 8 | 3/5 | 60 | 23/26 | 32 | 45 | |
| 46 | 5 | 3/6 | 50 | 16/18 | 25 | 44 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 42 | 12 | 40 | 1693 | 42.3 | 68 | 13 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.46 EPA/play | 10 | 7 | 9 | 182 | 20.2 | 0 | 58 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.66 EPA/play | 7 | 12 | 8 | 143 | 17.9 | 0 | 52 |
| +0.16 EPA/play | 3 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | 18 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+15 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | #61 | #66 | +15.5 | @Rutgers | L 31–34 122 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #57 | #106 | +3.5 | West Virginia | W 17–10 134 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #65 | #2 | +28.5 | @Ohio State | L 9–37 117 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #60 | #170 | -30.5 | Gardner-Webb | W 52–35 74 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #66 | #115 | -7.5 | Bowling Green | W 35–20 126 | 3-2 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #65 | #212 | -14.5 | @Ball State | L 14–20 140 | 3-3 | 1-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #74 | #146 | -11.5 | Northern Illinois | W 48–21 131 | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #68 | #169 | -12 | @Eastern Michigan | W 28–21 129 | 5-3 | 2-1 |
| 11 | Nov 5 | #68 | #63 | -2.5 | Miami (OH) | W 24–20 118 | 6-3 | 3-1 |
| 12 | Nov 12 | #69 | #71 | +1.5 | @Western Michigan | L 13–17 114 | 6-4 | 3-2 |
| 13 | Nov 19 | #66 | #263 | -34.5 | Massachusetts | W 42–14 132 | 7-4 | 4-2 |
| 14 | Nov 28 | #63 | #143 | -7 | @Buffalo | W 31–26 137 | 8-4 | 5-2 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 17 | Dec 24 | #66 | #63 | +6 | UNLV (N) | W 17–10 | 9-4 | 5-2 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 24 | UNLV | W 17–10 | — | — | — | +0.113 | 47.5% | 98.3% | One-score win |
| Nov 28 | @Buffalo | W 31–26 | 506 | 3 | 38:04 | +0.242 | 48.7% | 108.2% | One-score win |
| Nov 19 | Massachusetts | W 42–14 | 391 | 1 | 32:43 | +0.285 | 48.5% | 116.2% | Blowout win |
| Nov 12 | @Western Michigan | L 13–17 | 287 | 1 | 28:46 | +0.157 | 38.3% | 127.0% | One-score loss |
| Nov 5 | Miami (OH) | W 24–20 | 338 | 2 | 27:10 | +0.152 | 43.5% | 111.2% | One-score win |
| Oct 25 | @Eastern Michigan | W 28–21 | 487 | 2 | 35:40 | +0.176 | 46.2% | 124.1% | One-score win |
| Oct 18 | Northern Illinois | W 48–21 | 538 | 1 | 35:50 | +0.426 | 57.3% | 123.1% | Best success rate |
| Oct 4 | @Ball State | L 14–20 | 358 | 0 | 28:09 | +0.157 | 41.5% | 142.1% | One-score loss |
| Sep 27 | Bowling Green | W 35–20 | 446 | 3 | 29:29 | +0.211 | 45.3% | 138.3% | |
| Sep 20 | Gardner-Webb | W 52–35 | 609 | 0 | 33:59 | +0.457 | 56.8% | 126.2% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 13 | @Ohio State | L 9–37 | 181 | 0 | 27:17 | -0.061 | 25.9% | 124.9% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | West Virginia | W 17–10 | 429 | 3 | 40:15 | +0.019 | 39.2% | 99.8% | Best defensive stand |
| Aug 28 | @Rutgers | L 31–34 | 440 | 0 | 28:15 | +0.242 | 39.3% | 146.8% | Most explosive |
| Season average (13 games) | 418 | 1.3 | +0.198 | 44.5% | 122.0% | ||||
Ohio fields a strong run-heavy, methodical, ball-control offense behind a solid defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
67th percentile quality, 18th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 28th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 37th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
69th percentile success on standard downs, 76th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 70th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 68th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.20; 78th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.06. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.24 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Ohio reads strongest in rushing epa (top 19%) and success rate (top 31%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Ohio sits at the 31st percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Ohio
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Ohio · 2018-present
77% home win rate vs 46% on the road. margin runs +10.5 better at home. Peden Stadium seats 24,000, averaging 78% full (18,836 attendance, 24 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Sieh Bangura and Duncan Brune split the carries (242/359 vs 117/359) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Chase Hendricks (WR) and Mason Williams (TE) split the targets (105/137 vs 32/137) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
What changed
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Ohio’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.8% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 118-play sample) — mid-pack, 87 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
61°F average kickoff temp; 9% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 68 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Ohio's 2014–2025 record is 92-55. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1905 · 92 seasons · .454 win rate
Ohio won its seventh straight bowl game last December under a coach who had been on the job for two weeks. That's the program in one sentence: keep winning, whoever's driving.
The Bobcats play out of Peden Stadium in Athens, in the Appalachian foothills of southeast Ohio — one of the most genuinely scenic game-day settings in college football, with a grass berm where students watch from the hill like it's a different era entirely. Frank Solich built the modern foundation over 16 seasons, turning a mid-major also-ran into a MAC fixture with championship-game appearances and a culture of well-coached, physical football that outlasted his tenure. The 2024 MAC title — the program's first since 1968, a 38-3 rout of Miami (OH) in the largest winning margin in title-game history — was the moment the Solich-era investment finally cashed its biggest check.
The 2025 offseason proceeded to demonstrate what Ohio does when everything goes wrong: it wins anyway. Tim Albin, who coached the title team, left for Charlotte before the confetti dried. His replacement Brian Smith went 8-4 and was fired for cause in December amid a misconduct investigation. Defensive coordinator John Hauser — the program's third head coach in three seasons — took over for the Frisco Bowl, beat 10-win UNLV 17-10, and was promoted to the permanent job. Seven straight bowl wins, three coaches, zero broken streaks. The fanbase's pride in this is specific and not ironic: Athens itself is the constant. Coaches leave because the program is worth raiding; the program survives because the culture is deeper than any one coach.
The 2026 question is whether Hauser can be the hire that stays. The bowl streak is the program's most visible credential; the MAC title and the coaching stability it would take to repeat it are the things the fanbase is actually watching for. Can Hauser — a first-time head coach who won his debut bowl game — build the kind of multi-year tenure that Solich had, and turn the revolving door into a foundation?
Southeast-Ohio tough: a physical, well-schemed MAC program built on disciplined line play, a reliable run game, and low-turnover football that wins with preparation and game-plan execution rather than talent gaps. The Bobcats historically build through the MAC transfer market and in-region recruiting, prioritizing scheme-fit over upside. Defense and field position are the identity — the offense is built to protect leads, not create them out of nothing.
Ohio 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.01 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 9-4
Ohio: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
Mid-American Standing · 2025
Ohio is 2nd in the Mid-American at 5-2. 1 team above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Michigan | 7-1 |
| 2 | Ohio | 5-2 |
| 3 | Toledo | 5-2 |
| 4 | Central Michigan | 5-3 |
| 5 | Miami (OH) | 5-3 |
| 6 | Akron | 4-4 |
| 7 | Buffalo | 4-4 |
| 8 | Ball State | 3-4 |
| 9 | Kent State | 3-4 |
| 10 | Eastern Michigan | 2-5 |
| 11 | Bowling Green | 2-6 |
| 12 | Sacramento State | 0-0 |
| 13 | Massachusetts | 0-7 |
Coaching Era · Ohio
John Hauser took over from Brian Smith for the 2026 season.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1929
Peden Stadium — built 1929 into a natural hillside — is one of CFB's most-architecturally-distinct venues. The 24,000 capacity + the hill backdrop + the southeast-Ohio Appalachian Foothills geography + the on-campus location + the 'OU Oh Yeah!' chant create a venue uniquely Ohio (the MAC program, not to be confused with Ohio State).
since 2005
Frank Solich's 2005-2020 tenure — coming from the Nebraska firing — became the longest sustained head-coach run in modern Ohio football. Multiple MAC championship game appearances + bowl wins + 115 total wins. Solich's 2021 retirement opened Tim Albin's tenure (formerly Solich's offensive coordinator). The Solich era is the program's modern peak.
since 1908
Ohio-Miami (OH) plays the Battle of the Bricks — first played 1908 — for the brick trophy. The In-State MAC rivalry has produced 110+ meetings + multiple division championships at stake. The 'brick' trophy is the literal brick from each campus.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Ohio routed Miami (OH) 38-3 — the largest margin in MAC title-game history and the program's first conference crown since 1968
Beat 10-win UNLV 17-10 under interim coach John Hauser for a seventh straight bowl victory
Moment of the Year · Ohio · 2025
Week 3 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — win 17-10 (home). Last 5 postseason: 5-0.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Kurt Mattix — not yet reflected in on-field data.
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