Charlotte

0-3

American Athletic · Tim Albin, year 2 (1-14) · Jerry Richardson Stadium · 15,300 · 13,274 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#134 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #135 (-24.1) · FPI #126
The marketLouisiana by 10vs Louisiana · our model 14% Charlotte · a number, not a pick

LastL 21–26 at App State · Sat Sep 19 · Collin Gill 1 INT, 7 tackles

Nextvs Louisiana · Sat Sep 26 · 6:30 pm ET · Jerry Richardson Stadium · Louisiana by 10 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3

Charlotte · 2026 schedule & results0-3
WkDateUsOppLineOpponentResultRecordConf
1Sep 5#166#203-20.5The CitadelL 41–43 1370-10-0
2Sep 12#180#11+44.5@Ole MissL 9–41 1190-20-0
3Sep 19#162#87+16.5@App StateL 21–26 1360-30-0
4Sep 26#163#34+10Louisiana
5Oct 3#165#94Memphis
6Oct 10@North Texas
7Oct 17@Temple
9Oct 30Tulane
10Nov 7@UAB
11Nov 14East Carolina
12Nov 21@Tulsa
13Nov 28Navy
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Explosive%Note
Sep 19@App StateL 21–26247226:32-0.17730.5%106.1%Season-low EPA/play
Sep 12@Ole MissL 9–41322137:14-0.02136.1%100.2%Blowout loss
Sep 5The CitadelL 41–43538230:15+0.28646.2%149.0%Season-high EPA/play
Season average (3 games)3691.7+0.02937.6%118.4%
Verdict Begins·Live

Charlotte is the youngest program in the Power footprint — football didn't exist here until 2013 — trying to build, almost from scratch, a tradition the rest of the sport had a century-long head start on.

Standard GapA 2019 bowl bid in just the program's seventh season vs a 2025…

Niner fans say the rest of the sport treats a program this young like it doesn't count — and they point to the biggest, fastest-growing city in the Carolinas and ask why a metro this size shouldn't…

low signal
Read the full program story ↓

The season in chapters

Ahead
Sat Sep 26Next: Louisianavs Louisiana · at home

What fans said

Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown

What it is like to watch them2025 · 1-11 · last season

Game feel51rock fightscombined pts / game13th highest-scoring of 14 in the American Athletic
Heart rate1-0rarely closein one-score games (1 of 12)14th most one-score games of 14 in the American Athletic
Margin-22.0outgunnedavg scoring margin14th best margin of 14 in the American Athletic
Big plays1.22grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)11th most explosive of 14 in the American Athletic
Home crowd13,564avg attendance14th biggest crowds of 14 in the American Athletic

✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among American Athletic teams the same season

Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025

Charlotte has lost five straight.

Hibernating. 0-10 over the last 10, and lost the last ten.

Streak L10Last 5 · 0-5Last 10 · 0-10
The forecast

Next Sep 26

vs Louisiana · at home

PoorPass-first, spreadPoor

~ our read on style

Market outlook

Season expectations

CFP championship#128 in field+1000000
AAC title#14 in market+35000

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22

Charlotte · the story right now 10 storylines developing

What Charlotte's transfer portal class is really about

the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?

portal2025-05-08~readnew

Grayson Loftis (QB) and Conner Harrell (QB) arrive as Charlotte's answer to 1-11, diagnosing a passing game that couldn't escape the bottom of the American Athletic.

what happenedCharlotte signed a top-48 transfer-portal class — 34 additions headlined by Grayson Loftis (QB) from Duke and Conner Harrell (QB) from North Carolina. ✓ fact
the contexta top-3 portal class in the American Athletic this cycle

our readdeveloping

coaching2025 cycle~readnew

Tim Albin inherits a 1-11 roster with just 24% production returning — Charlotte's fourth coach in five years faces an ascent built on instability.

what happenedTim Albin took over as Charlotte's head coach, replacing Biff Poggi. ✓ fact
the contextthe program's third head coach in five seasons

our readdeveloping

identitythis cycle~readnew

Tim Albin begins his tenure at Charlotte with a 1-11 losing record to inherit, compounding the program's status as one of the weaker FBS teams.

what happenedCharlotte: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact

our readdeveloping

coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew

Tim Albin inherits a 1-11 losing record at Charlotte, a program still defining its identity since its 2013 FBS debut, with coordinator changes reshaping key units.

what happenedCharlotte: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact

our readdeveloping

coordinators2025 cycle~readnew

Tim Albin begins his tenure at Charlotte with a 1-11 losing record to inherit, compounding the program's status as one of the weaker FBS teams.

what happenedCharlotte: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact

our readbackground

deep threat2025 cycle✓ factnew

Sean Brown is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.

our readdeveloping

money down2025 cycle✓ factnew

Sean Brown is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.

our readdeveloping

garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew

Cameren Smith: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.

our readbackground

garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew

Javen Nicholas does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.

our readbackground

garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew

Rod Gainey Jr.: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.

our readbackground

How past storylines here turned out

AnsweredCharlotte's head-coaching hire held for another season.
ReplacedCharlotte's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
Died downCharlotte's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Outcome band · Charlotte · 2026

Charlotte's most likely season is 5-7 — no postseason. The floor is 3-9; the ceiling is 8-5.

Floor3-9No postseason, 2 fewer wins.
Base5-7No postseason.
Ceiling8-5A bowl game.

Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · Charlotte · Transfer portal Confidence

Charlotte went deep in the portal this cycle. Portal volume is the start of the story, not the verdict.

Charlotte signed a top-48 transfer-portal class — 34 additions headlined by Grayson Loftis (QB) from Duke and Conner Harrell (QB) from North Carolina. It is a top-3 portal class in the American Athletic this cycle. Portal pickups are proven college players — the split isn't about development, it's about whether they fit the scheme and win their position battles. Coverage is split on whether volume or positional fit is the bigger story.

bullish — but with real dissent where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers4 bull takes
💬 fans: 6% volume
The saga so far~2 months old
2 weeks agoWin total (line at 2.5) still unmoved 12d after "Coach suspended with pay"
2 weeks agoWin total (line at 2.5) still unmoved 11d after "Coach suspended with pay"
3 weeks agoWin total (line at 2.5) still unmoved 10d after "Coach suspended with pay"
3 weeks agoWin total (line at 2.5) — no reprice yet on "Coach suspended with pay"
3 weeks agoWin total (line at 2.5) holding steady right after "Coach suspended with pay"
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Grayson Loftis QB · Duke
Conner Harrell QB · North Carolina
“Conner Harrell” — ESPN · 2022-07-19
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Grayson Loftis (QB) and Conner Harrell (QB) arrive as Charlotte's answer to 1-11, diagnosing a passing game that couldn't escape the bottom of the American Athletic.
Source of record: Charlotte signed a top-48 transfer-portal class — 34 additions headlined by Grayson Loftis (QB) from Duke and Conner Harrell (QB) from North Carolina — a top-3 portal class in the American Athletic this cycle.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards quiet
📣Believers4 bullish/portal items -- the case it's working.

The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.

“Florida State transfer SF Chauncey Wiggins commits to Gonzaga after judge’s order”
On3 CFB · 2026-08-07 · read ↗
“Transfers surge in Charlotte football; Coaches call for rules as ‘wild west’ grows”
Charlotte Observer · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“Charlotte Football Recruiting: Commits, Signing Day & Transfer Portal”
NC Football News · 2026-06-12 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Coaches say NC needs clearer rules as Charlotte football…” — the real counter.

The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.

“Coaches say NC needs clearer rules as Charlotte football transfers rise (Video)”
Charlotte Observer · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
💬The boards6% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines.

This event was in 54 of 937 board posts (6%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"Currently pursuing my ADT (Associate Degree Transfer) and I want to get my BA in Business Administration. I see that UNCC doesn’t have a transfer agreement with Fayetteville Tech,"
r/UNCCharlotte ~ fan take
"Hello, I've applied for spring 2027 term as a transfer student on July 16, 2026, to health system management major. I planned to transfer with my associates degree in graphic desig"
r/UNCCharlotte ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

Developing · Charlotte · Coaching Confidence

The Tim Albin era at Charlotte: where it actually stands.

Tim Albin took over as Charlotte's head coach, replacing Biff Poggi. It is the program's third head coach in five seasons. The coverage has largely bought in. The field test is what separates the presser from the program. The coverage has largely bought in, though the field test is still ahead.

The saga so far~2 months old
2 weeks agoCan Tim Triumph? What the past tells us about Year 2 under Albin — Niner Times
2 weeks agoWin total (line at 2.5) still unmoved 12d after "Coach suspended with pay"
2 weeks agoWin total (line at 2.5) still unmoved 11d after "Coach suspended with pay"
3 weeks agoWin total (line at 2.5) still unmoved 10d after "Coach suspended with pay"
3 weeks agoWin total (line at 2.5) — no reprice yet on "Coach suspended with pay"
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Tim Albin Head coach
“Biggest takeaways from Tim Albin at American Conference Kickoff” — Niner Times · 2026-08-03
Biff Poggi Out
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Tim Albin inherits a 1-11 roster with just 24% production returning — Charlotte's fourth coach in five years faces an ascent built on instability.
Source of record: Tim Albin took over as Charlotte's head coach, replacing Biff Poggi — the program's third head coach in five seasons.
How each room reacted — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics no dissentThe Boards thinThe Dominoes active
📣Believers1 bullish/hire items -- the case it's working.

The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.

“Aerial Attack Gives Charlotte First Win in Albin Era”
Charlotte Athletics · 2025-09-13 · read ↗
“Can Tim Triumph? What the past tells us about Year 2 under Albin”
Niner Times · 2026-09-08 · read ↗
“Detailed 2026 Charlotte 49ers Football Snapshot: More Quick-Turn Magic From Albin?”
North Carolina Sports Network · 2026-08-28 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.

The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.

Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.

💬The boards5 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.

Only 5 of 937 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.

"It’d be silly to think about firing him this year, but Albin needs to show something soon because I haven’t seen anything under him so far that makes me believe this is a serious t"
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Tim Albin has been a huge disappointment for a program already at rock bottom. 1-11 barely beating an FCS team last year and now starting 0-1 losing to FCS The Citadel. Charlotte i"
r/CFB ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

🔗The dominoes10 downstream moves — the hire's knock-on effects.

The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.

“Florida State QB commit Logan Flaherty rushes for four touchdowns, Port Charlotte (Fla.) cruises”
On3 CFB · 2026-08-22 · read ↗
“Jaxon Kohler, Donovan Dent among players granted TRO in California and may enter portal”
On3 CFB · 2026-08-19 · read ↗

Rival pulse

App State
Bullish
+26
Charlotte-App State

Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data

More in this tab

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Charlotte is the American Athletic program whose 2013 program founding + 2019 first bowl appearance + Jerry Richardson Stadium define what most-recent-FBS-newcomer-ascent looks like.

Offense: PoorRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadDefense: Poor
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2025Hired Tim Albin
RosterWho's gone, who's back, who replaces them.

Roster Reload - Charlotte

2026 snapshot - 2026-09-22
Returning Production41%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#104 nationally247 composite 576.8
Portal Additions19Primary repair: TE
Portal Losses27Primary pressure: IOL
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#103Depth class
WRin 4 - Jaden Barnes3.60out 4 - Javen Nicholas3.70Downgrade
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Slot Technicianwins underneath on volume and route precision
OTin 2 - J'ven Williams3.60out 4 - Umar Rockhead3.49Starter Risk
IOLin 2 - Luke Sandy3.50out 4 - Mo Clipper Jr.3.50Starter Risk
current room: 303 lbs avg (2025 roster)
RBin 3 - Khamani Alexander3.49out 3 - Don Chaney Jr.3.60Even
current room: 192 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 2 - Devin Ancrum3.50out 2 - Xavier Miles3.49Even
current room: 265 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Nose Anchorcontrols the point of attack and doesn't move
TEin 2 - Lane Wadle3.40out 1 - Jake Young1.00Upgrade
current room: 252 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Complete TE2025 profileshows up in the passing game from any alignment
Full roster (112 players)
Offseason movesEvery addition and subtraction since the last snap.

The Offseason Ledger · Charlotte

6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. News

    WR out for season with knee injury

    Brazzell was already thin depth at receiver — losing a rookie to a knee before he plays a snap tightens a room that couldn't afford it at a program already sliding in SP+.

    Jul 30Reported
  2. Coaching

    Coach suspended with pay

    Tim Albin suspended with pay at a program already sliding in SP+ and leaning on a #103 class to patch IOL depth — this isn't a good look when the roster can't afford front-office noise right now.

    Aug 22Reported
  3. Coaching

    Win total (line at 2.5) still unmoved 12d after "Coach suspended with pay"

    The market hasn't budged since "Coach suspended with pay" broke on 2026-08-22 — either the books see it as already priced in, or this one's genuinely slipped past them.

    Sep 3
  4. Coaching

    Win total (line at 2.5) still unmoved 11d after "Coach suspended with pay"

    The market hasn't budged since "Coach suspended with pay" broke on 2026-08-22 — either the books see it as already priced in, or this one's genuinely slipped past them.

    Sep 2
  5. Coaching

    Win total (line at 2.5) still unmoved 10d after "Coach suspended with pay"

    The market hasn't budged since "Coach suspended with pay" broke on 2026-08-22 — either the books see it as already priced in, or this one's genuinely slipped past them.

    Sep 1
  6. Coaching

    Win total (line at 2.5) — no reprice yet on "Coach suspended with pay"

    It's been 9d since "Coach suspended with pay" and the line hasn't moved. Worth checking again in a few days to see if the books are just slow.

    Aug 31
Who's movedWho's transferring in and out, right now.

Transfer portal snapshot

-2.6 net portal points
(raw ledger: -14.4 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
EDGE
-7.0
starter risk
TE
+5.7
LB
-4.5
starter risk
OT
-4.3
starter risk
IOL
-4.2
starter risk
LS
+3.0
low confidence
WR
-2.5
DL
+2.4
K
-1.0
low confidence
P
-1.0
low confidence
RB
-0.6
S
-0.3
CB
-0.1
QB
+0.0
Top commits

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
Jaylen White
QB · Clearwater, FL
#1211 national
Profiles like a typical incoming quarterback — 14 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Pocket Passer archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Colin Bussey
EDGE · Douglasville, GA
#1523 national
★★★☆☆
Cody Taylor
IOL · Greenwood, AR
#1566 national
Where they're fromWhere this class actually comes from, on the map.

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

27
GA · 9MS · 3NC · 3AR · 2FL · 2SC · 2AZ · 1IN · 1+4 more

GA leads the 2026 class with 9 commits. National footprint reaching 12 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

81 signees across 21 states, 2023-2026. GA leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMI2NYMA1ORNVWYSDIAILIN1OH2PA2NJCTCA2UTCO1NEMOKYWVVA3MD8DERIAZ1NMKS1AR2TN1NC8SC4DCOK1LA1MS8ALGA17AKHITX5FL10
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles
Miles from homeHow far this roster travelled to get here.

Miles from home · 2026 roster

The median Charlotte player grew up 321 miles from campus.

Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.

64th-farthest from home in FBS of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%159–530 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi19%20 of 103 players
Farthest2,113 miLuke McNulty · Pasadena, CA
Closest5 miIsaiah Bullerdick · Harrisburg, NC

Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Jerry Richardson Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 103 of 112 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

In-state shareHow much of this roster is home-grown.

Who owns NC · 2026 roster

20% of the Charlotte roster grew up in NC.

21 of 106 players, drawn from 27 states in all. That is the 105th-highest in-state share of 135 ranked FBS programs.

Signing day undersells it: only 10% of the last 4 classes were from NC, but walk-ons and transfers pull the roster 10 points back toward home.

GA · 21NC · 21FL · 11MS · 7SC · 6MD · 4TX · 4OH · 3+19 more

Where the 2026 roster is from

106 players across 27 states. Biggest pull outside NC: GA (21).

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWI1MI2NY1MA2ORNVWYSDIAIL2IN2OH3PA1NJCTCA1UTCO2NE2MOKY1WVVA2MD4DE1RIAZ1NMKSAR2TN2NC21SC6DC1OKLA1MS7AL2GA21AKHITX4FL11
Source CFB Zeitgeist · roster_entries (CFBD hometowns)
Every FBS roster ranked by in-state share →

Home state as listed on the CFBD roster. 6 listed players fall outside the 50 states and DC (international hometowns, or no state listed) and are excluded from the denominator. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] USF Defeats Charlotte 54-26
503 upvotes · Oct 2025
[Postgame Thread] Army Defeats Charlotte 24-7
51 upvotes · Oct 2025
[Game Thread] Charlotte @ USF (7:00 PM ET)
50 upvotes · Oct 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

How it turned outHow an old class actually turned out, years on.
Class Autopsy
The 2023 class: 0 drafted so far, 40% never transferred. F
See the class →
Fans vs. marketWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market
9th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
1.5
Vegas O/U wins
(0th among FBS)
Fan mood aligned with market consensus
Win total consensus · 1 book
PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

Winning the penalty battle: 22 penalties committed vs. 19 drawn on opponents, a 32-yard edge.

128 penalty yards committed vs. 160 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

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