Charlotte upsets Temple 38-31
Charlotte beat Temple 38-31 as a 17.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 5%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 5% or less in about 1 of every 25 games since 2018.
We had Temple favored. Charlotte won.
Next: Charlotte vs Tulane, Fri Oct 30 · 7:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Sheppard 44-yd TD run, ties it 21-21 (Q3, 6:26). Charlotte went from 43% to 22% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Charlotte a 10% chance, and the closing betting line (Charlotte was a 17.5-point underdog) put it at 8%.
Charlotte 38-31 Temple
Charlotte wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Temple 31-38 CharlotteTemple lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 6:26Sheppard 44-yd TD run, ties it 21-21Charlotte 43% → 22% (−21)
- 2Q4 14:12Harrell 9-yd TD pass to McGee, Charlotte goes ahead 28-21Charlotte 30% → 51% (+21)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 6:26Sheppard 44-yd TD run, ties it 21-21Temple 57% → 78% (+21)
- 2Q4 14:12Harrell 9-yd TD pass to McGee, Charlotte goes ahead 28-21Temple 70% → 49% (−21)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Temple -17.5), at 9% for Charlotte (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Charlotte scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Temple on 5 of its 11.
Charlotte’s drives are teal, Temple’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Temple’s side
Temple’s best moment: Sheppard 44-yd TD run, ties it 21-21 (Q3 6:26). It lifted Temple’s win chance by 21 points.
The winner fell to 5%.
What it cost
Temple’s chance to win the conference fell from 2% to 0%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 16, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Temple plays at East Carolina on Sat Oct 31 with a 0% chance to win the conference.
Box score
Charlotte 38, Temple 31
Charlotte covered +17.5 by 24.5. The total, 69, went over 47.5.
| Team totals | Charlotte | Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 449 | 455 |
| Passing | 23 of 31, 281 yds | 17 of 27, 249 yds |
| Rushing | 38 for 168 yds | 34 for 206 yds |
| First downs | 26 | 20 |
| Third down | 6 of 10 | 6 of 12 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Penalties | 3 for 11 yds | 5 for 65 yds |
| Time of possession | 32:49 | 27:11 |
Charlotte leaders
- Passing Conner Harrell 23 of 31, 281 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Henry Rutledge 17 for 123 yds; Conner Harrell 7 for 22 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Derrick Eley 6 for 96 yds, 1 TD; Brody Dawyot 4 for 60 yds
Temple leaders
- Passing Ajani Sheppard 15 of 23, 236 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Ajani Sheppard 7 for 70 yds, 2 TD; Keveun Mason 13 for 64 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Peter Clarke 5 for 127 yds, 1 TD; Colin Chase 6 for 74 yds
No rain, gusts to 32 mph
52° at kickoff · 0.00 in of rain · wind 17 mph from the north, mostly along the field, gusts to 32
A 32 mph gust is stronger than the peak gust in 96% of games since 2018.
Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.
The usual here around this date is 65°, with about 7 in 10 games between 58° and 73°.
October game-day temperatures at Lincoln Financial Field
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Philadelphia International airport, 3.7 miles away, and Philadelphia Ne airport, 15 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Charlotte · 0-6
Rated 166th in our preseason ratings, 226th now.
Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.
L 41-43 vs The Citadel #210 of 668
lost by 2 as a 20.5-point favorite
Last three games
Temple · 2-4
Rated 90th in our preseason ratings, 97th now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 4-point win over South Florida as a 5.5-point underdog.
Week by week
Temple
- Wk 2Lvs Penn State9-27
- Wk 3Lat Toledo48-49
- Wk 4Lvs Army17-21
- Wk 5Wat South Florida17-13
- Wk 6Lvs UConn20-34
Charlotte
- Wk 2Lat Ole Miss9-41
- Wk 3Lat App State21-26
- Wk 4Lvs Louisiana7-34
- Wk 5Lvs Memphis8-59
- Wk 6Lat North Texas10-50
Power rating by week
Temple is rated 8.7 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Temple’s rushing EPA against Charlotte, 70 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Temple’s EPA/play against Charlotte’s defense
Temple offense, 65th percentile · Charlotte defense, 8th
Temple’s rushing EPA against Charlotte’s defense
Temple offense, 78th percentile · Charlotte defense, 8th
Charlotte’s explosive plays against Temple’s defense
Charlotte offense, 8th percentile · Temple defense, 64th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Temple leads the series 3-0
3 meetings since 2015 · Temple has won the last 3
- 2025Temple 49-14
- 2016Temple 48-20
- 2015Temple 37-3
Each line is Temple’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Temple fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (20th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Temple favored by 17.5 · Total 47.5
How games like this usually go
Temple by 17.5, on the usual path until Q3 12:11
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 6 points toward Charlotte.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: −23.5 → −17.5 · Total: 49.5 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Temple is worth +3.0 points (±4.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 29th percentile.
41% at home, 24% on the road against FBS opponents (19-27 home, 11-34 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.1 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 440 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.