The rest of the season
One real test left: Ohio 55%
Win out 43% · expect 2.3 of 3 more wins
Toledo's chance to win each game left, from our model: Massachusetts 89%, Bowling Green 87%, Ohio 55%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
StandingTied for 2nd in the Mid-American · 4-1 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing John Alan Richter 2,304 · Rushing CJ Miller 744 · Receiving Adjatay Dabbs 592 All player stats
Updated Thu Nov 5 · through week 10
Follow Toledo:athletics siteXYouTube
Favored the whole way: Toledo never fell below 75%.
Toledo 20-17 Sacramento State
Toledo wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 | #48 | #170 | +10= | @Michigan State | L 20-30 124 Loud | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Richter 196 · Rush Walendzak 76 · Rec Dabbs 101 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #50 | #189 | −36.5✓ +16.5 | Central Connecticut | W 63-10 134 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Richter 252 · Rush Miller 56 · Rec Bond 135 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #49 | #90 | −4.5✗ −3.5 | Temple | W 49-48 148 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Richter 429 · Rush Walendzak 62 · Rec Crosby Jr. 95 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #44 | #54 | −2.5✓ +22.5 | San Diego State | W 41-16 138 | 3-1 | 0-0 | Pass Richter 284 · Rush Ison 89 · Rec Hammer 133 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #40 | #164 | −20.5✗ −5.5 | @Ball State | W 39-24 148 | 4-1 | 1-0 | Pass Richter 201 · Rush Miller 196 · Rec Dabbs 82 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #42 | #160 | −18.5✗ −33.5 | Buffalo | L 8-23 139 | 4-2 | 1-1 | Pass Richter 203 · Rush Walendzak 50 · Rec Crosby Jr. 69 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #51 | #120 | −7.5✓ +12.5 | @Eastern Michigan | W 34-14 141 | 5-2 | 2-1 | Pass Richter 288 · Rush Ison 104 · Rec Hammer 69 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #47 | #43 | −2.5✓ +4.5 | Western Michigan | W 45-38 150 | 6-2 | 3-1 | Pass Richter 391 · Rush Miller 183 · Rec Dabbs 124 |
| 9 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 10 | Nov 4 | #39 | #218 | −25.5✗ −22.5 | @Sacramento State | W 20-17 130 | 7-2 | 4-1 | Pass Richter 60 · Rush Miller 135 · Rec Simpson 18 |
| 11 | Nov 11 | #44 | #166 | Massachusetts | time TBA89% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 20 | Bowling Green | 7:30 pm ET · ESPN287% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | @Ohio | 12 pm ET55% to win | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Toledo, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Toledo: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4 | @Sacramento State | W 20-17 | 290 | 1 | 29:35 | -0.086 | 32.8% | 1.05 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | Western Michigan | W 45-38 | 595 | 2 | 33:20 | +0.244 | 50.0% | 1.18 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | @Eastern Michigan | W 34-14 | 480 | 1 | 33:35 | +0.231 | 50.0% | 1.09 | |
| Oct 10 | Buffalo | L 8-23 | 308 | 3 | 24:35 | +0.090 | 34.4% | 1.08 | |
| Oct 3 | @Ball State | W 39-24 | 553 | 0 | 34:20 | +0.192 | 41.4% | 1.34 | |
| Sep 26 | San Diego State | W 41-16 | 494 | 0 | 33:25 | +0.204 | 46.5% | 1.26 | |
| Sep 19 | Temple | W 49-48 | 536 | 1 | 26:22 | +0.378 | 52.0% | 1.37 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Central Connecticut | W 63-10 | 569 | 2 | 34:03 | +0.318 | 44.7% | 1.67 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 4 | @Michigan State | L 20-30 | 273 | 1 | 16:44 | +0.284 | 28.6% | 2.34 | Most explosive |
| Season average (9 games) | 455 | 1.2 | +0.206 | 42.3% | 1.38 | ||||
Toledo's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 5. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last three.
The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Jacobs inherits a 68% production returning roster after Candle's 45-23 tenure — Toledo hasn't won a conference title since 2017, and the Glass Bowl's legacy now hinges on a new era's first step.
Statusfront page
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Toledo · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
8 wins 10%; 9 wins 47%; 10 wins 43%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
Mike Jacobs took over as Toledo's head coach, replacing Robert Weiner. It is replaces 11-year head coach Jason Candle (81-44). The coverage hasn't settled, and believers and skeptics both make specific cases. The coverage is split, with specific cases for and against.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Only 3 of 410 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-2
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Toledo is the MAC's quiet machine — a Glass Bowl program that has won more than almost anyone in the conference for fifty years — and now it's starting over, after Jason Candle became the school's winningest coach ever and promptly left for UConn.
Fans know the drill — the national conversation treats the MAC as a place big jobs go shopping for coaches, and Toledo as the supplier rather than the contender. They want the new staff to prove the…
Toledo · Game-day weather
Typical at Glass Bowl: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 88 to 90
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 113 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Toledo is the MAC program whose 1969-1972 35-game unbeaten streak + Glass Bowl venue + the Jason Candle era (2015-2024, 10 seasons) define what historic-MAC-stalwart looks like, now under new coach Mike Jacobs (hired Dec 2025, after Robert Weiner's 2025 interim season).
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 3 commits
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
5Jacobs inherits a 68% production returning roster after Candle's 45-23 tenure — Toledo hasn't won a conference title since 2017, and the Glass Bowl's legacy now hinges on a new era's first step.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Toledo · 2026