4coaching hire
Mike Jacobs takes over at Toledo
Jacobs inherits a 68% production returning roster after Candle's 45-23 tenure — Toledo hasn't won a conference title since 2017, and the Glass Bowl's legacy now hinges on a new era's first step.
Toledo8-5Latest
Toledo fans are split on what comes next.
belief cooled ↓ 6.4vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Mixed
48/100 · 27 mentions
~ our readGrounding
running on emotion
2% cite a stat · 8% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 40 pts
~ our readThe model
#26
CFB Zeitgeist · +7.3
✓ measured4Hope-Doping·Offseason
Toledo is the MAC's quiet machine — a Glass Bowl program that has won more than almost anyone in the conference for fifty years — and now it's starting over, after Jason Candle became the school's winningest coach ever and promptly left for UConn.
Title DroughtSince 2022 · 3 yrs
Fans know the drill — the national conversation treats the MAC as a place big jobs go shopping for coaches, and Toledo as the supplier rather than the contender. They want the new staff to prove the R…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - Toledo
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production68%High continuity
Talent Composite#75 nationally247 composite 620.1
Portal Additions33Primary repair: CB
Portal Losses38Primary pressure: LB
Draft Loss2NFL Draft departures (2)
Recruiting Reload#121Depth class
WRin 4 - Rico Bondout 6 - Ryder TreadwayStarter Risk
current room: 189 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 6 - KJ Thomasout 3 - Amare SnowdenNeed Filled
current room: 187 lbs avg (2025 roster)
IOLin 3 - Ahmad Carwiseout 5 - Anthony BoswellStarter Risk
current room: 302 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 4 - Andrew Zockout 4 - Malachi DavisEven
current room: 245 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 1 - Kari Jacksonout 5 - K'Von ShermanStarter Risk
current room: 230 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Sin 2 - Armorion Smithout 3 - Braedyn MooreDowngrade
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at Michigan State · Sat Sep 5 · 00:00 UTC
The experience
Toledo is the MAC program whose 1969-1972 35-game unbeaten streak + Glass Bowl venue + Jason Candle longevity define what historic-MAC-stalwart looks like.
Offense: StrongTempo: Methodical, ball-controlDefense: Elite
Toledo's 2026 season hinges on roster continuity and transfer impact
With 68% of returning players and a net portal exporter status, Toledo faces challenges from losing 38 transfers but gains 33 new additions. The team's depth class and moderate reload score suggest a competitive but unpredictable campaign.
- Roster reloadToledo has 68% returning players, indicating high continuity, but lost 38 transfers compared to gaining 33 new additions, resulting in a net portal exporter status.
Data as of 2026-08-03
·
Validated against program evidence
Rocky the Rocket is fueled.
Toledo · the story right now
11 storylines developing
What Toledo's coaching hire is really about
the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
coachingthis cycle~readnew
Jacobs inherits a 68% production returning roster after Candle's 45-23 tenure — Toledo hasn't won a conference title since 2017, and the Glass Bowl's legacy now hinges on a new era's first step.
what happenedMike Jacobs took over as Toledo's head coach, replacing Jason Candle. ✓ fact
the contextreplaces 6-year head coach Jason Candle (45-23)
narrative tension · our read
dynastythis cycle~readnew
Toledo has reached elite-tier consistency — Jason Candle's three-year run is the program's peak power-rating mark in 3 years, raising stakes for sustained MAC dominance.
what happenedToledo has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 28% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 37% a year ago. ✓ fact
the contexta 26-12 record over the last three regular seasons
narrative tension · our read
identitythis cycle~readnew
Jason Candle enters his 9th season with an 8-5 record, anchoring Toledo's identity as a historic MAC stalwart amid evolving fanbase expectations.
what happenedToledo: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Junior Vandeross is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Junior Vandeross produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew
Chip Trayanum does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Jacob Petersen is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Junior Vandeross: a depth dna signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew
Junior Vandeross does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Mike Jacobs begins his tenure with an 8-5 record, but a coordinator change and uneasy fan belief signal early challenges in maintaining Toledo's historic MAC-stalwart identity.
what happenedToledo: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
portal2026-03-12~readnew
Toledo's top-28 portal class arrives with 68% production returning and just two NFL exits — Candle's sixth straight season diagnosing a roster that already looks like a Glass Bowl contender.
what happenedToledo signed a top-42 transfer-portal class — 33 additions headlined by Khamoni Robinson (QB) from Lenoir-Rhyne and KJ Thomas (CB) from Mercer. ✓ fact
the contextthe No. 1 portal class in the Mid-American this cycle
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredToledo's climb into dynasty-caliber territory held for another season.
Died downToledo's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
The story
The Offseason Ledger · Toledo
2 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Coaching
Mike Jacobs hired as Toledo head coach
A former Ohio State lineman pulling from the Tressel tree lands at a program that's been quietly signaling it wants to be something different — Toledo's hiring a builder, not a caretaker.
- Portal
TE Tucker Kelleher transfer commits from BYU
Big-12 tight end falls to MAC — Kelleher gets the snaps, Rockets get a Power-Four body.
Transfer portal snapshot
-1.1 net portal points
(raw ledger: -23.2 — unweighted, no position adjustment)LB-11.6
starter risk
CB+8.9
need not filled
IOL-7.7
starter risk
RB+6.9
need not filled
WR-6.6
starter risk
S-4.6
DL-3.8
OT-3.7
LS-2.0
TE+1.3
K-1.0
P+1.0
low confidence
EDGE-0.5
QB+0.1
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Sharard Vaughn III
#1174 national
Projects: Hybrid Nickel — 10 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Hybrid Nickel archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Tyrell O'Neal
#1474 national
Profiles like a typical incoming interior lineman — 12 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Two-Gap Base archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Seth Elchert
#1654 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 16 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Fan vs. market↓
18th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
7.5
Vegas O/U wins
(60th among FBS)
(60th among FBS)
Market 42pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 7.5
CFP championship#87 in field+100000
MAC title#3 in market+360
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Toledo · Next-Season Outcome Band
Toledo · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 5-7
Base 8-5
Ceiling 10-3
floor5-7No postseason.
base8-5Bowl game.
ceiling10-3Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Developing · Toledo · Coaching Confidence
The Mike Jacobs era at Toledo: where it actually stands.
Mike Jacobs took over as Toledo's head coach, replacing Jason Candle. It is replaces 6-year head coach Jason Candle (45-23). The room hasn't reached a verdict — believers and skeptics both have specific, competing cases. The room is split — the case for and the case against are both specific.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers6 bull takes
Developing1 new this week
yesterdayRockets Open Fall Camp Under First-Year Head Coach Mike Jacobs — University of Toledo Athletics
2 weeks agoToledo head football coach Mike Jacobs sinks putt at Greater Toledo Classic Pro-Am — WTOL
3 weeks agoMike Jacobs hired as Toledo head coach — Reported
3 weeks agoFormer Ohio State Offensive Lineman Mike Jacobs Drawing from Teachings of Jim Tressel, John Cooper As Toledo’s New Head Coach — Eleven Warriors
Mar 12TE Tucker Kelleher transfer commits from BYU — CFBD /player/portal
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Mike Jacobs Head coach
“Rockets Open Fall Camp Under First-Year Head Coach Mike Jacobs” — University of Toledo Athletics · 2026-08-05
Jason Candle Out
Mike Jacobs Announces
“Toledo Head Coach Mike Jacobs Announces Staff Additions and Promotions - University of Toledo Athletics” — University of Toledo Athletics · 2026-02-05
Staff Additions
“Toledo Head Coach Mike Jacobs Announces Staff Additions and Promotions - University of Toledo Athletics” — University of Toledo Athletics · 2026-02-05
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Jacobs inherits a 68% production returning roster after Candle's 45-23 tenure — Toledo hasn't won a conference title since 2017, and the Glass Bowl's legacy now hinges on a new era's first step.
Next · what to watch
The obvious story is the marquee name; the non-obvious one is roster churn — a coaching change keeps a portal and decommit window open long after the introductory presser. Watch decommitments and portal moves in the next window — that's where this is actually won or lost, not at the podium. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Mike Jacobs took over as Toledo's head coach, replacing Jason Candle — replaces 6-year head coach Jason Candle (45-23).
How each room reacted — tap to expand
📣Believers6 bullish/hire items -- the case it's working.›
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
“Toledo head football coach Mike Jacobs sinks putt at Greater Toledo Classic Pro-Am”
WTOL · 2026-07-17 · read ↗
“Former Ohio State Offensive Lineman Mike Jacobs Drawing from Teachings of Jim Tressel, John Cooper As Toledo’s New Head Coach”
Eleven Warriors · 2026-07-15 · read ↗
“Toledo Head Coach Mike Jacobs Announces Staff Additions and Promotions - University of Toledo Athletics”
University of Toledo Athletics · 2026-02-05 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“3 questions for Toledo football in head coach Mike Jacobs' 1st o” — the real counter.›
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
“3 questions for Toledo football in head coach Mike Jacobs' 1st offseason”
Toledo Blade · 2026-01-07 · read ↗
🔗The dominoes16 downstream moves — the hire's knock-on effects.›
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
“Will Jansen Joins Swimming & Diving Staff as Diving Coach”
University of Toledo Athletics · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Karsen Fisher of Nordonia High School commits to Toledo football”
Akron Beacon Journal · 2026-07-14 · read ↗
Following now · Toledo · Program power Confidence
The arrow is pointing up for Toledo — the data backs it.
Toledo has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 28% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 37% a year ago. It is a 26-12 record over the last three regular seasons. A real, measurable rise in the model. The room has caught up; now the schedule has to agree.
near-unanimous belief
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Believers3 bull takes
The saga so far~5 months old
3 weeks agoMike Jacobs hired as Toledo head coach — Reported
Mar 12TE Tucker Kelleher transfer commits from BYU — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Toledo has reached elite-tier consistency — Jason Candle's three-year run is the program's peak power-rating mark in 3 years, raising stakes for sustained MAC dominance.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of climbing the power tiers is the expectation tax: the same season that looked like a breakout last year now reads as a disappointment. Watch whether the schedule lets the run actually show up on the field.
Source of record: Toledo has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 28% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 37% a year ago — a 26-12 record over the last three regular seasons.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers3 bullish/momentum items -- the case it's working.›
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
“Rockets Build Momentum in Exhibition Victory over Cleveland State”
University of Toledo Athletics · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
“Oakland Golden Grizzlies @ Toledo Rockets: Live game updates, stats, play-by-play”
sports.yahoo.com · 2026-08-02 · read ↗
“New looks, same rivalry feelings for BGSU, UT football after offseason overhauls”
Toledo Blade · 2026-07-25 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'wait and see' counter -- power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Warming
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast
Opens Sep 5
vs Michigan State · away
Season line7.5 winsover -130
StrongMethodical, ball-controlElite
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
Northern Illinois
Hopeful+18
NIU-Toledo
Bowling Green
Mixed+4
Battle of I-75
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
16
OH · 5MI · 3FL · 2AL · 1CA · 1GA · 1IL · 1NC · 1+1 more
OH leads the 2026 class with 5 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
81 signees across 17 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.
Recruiting & portal buzz
2027 Unranked ATH Kent Staten commits to Toledo
2027 3* IOL Barrett Bray commits to Toledo
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
National spotlight
6 games with TV coverage: 3 ESPN, 1 conference network, 2 streaming
Kickoff windows: 2 noon, 2 afternoon, 2 primetime
Fumble luck
Recovering 58% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~49% league rate.
7 of 12 forced fumbles recovered; 6 of 10 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
Converting 23% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
13 interceptions of 57 disrupted passes (44 deflected, 13 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
Losing the penalty battle: 111 penalties committed vs. 64 drawn on opponents, a 475-yard deficit.
970 penalty yards committed vs. 495 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on Toledo
48
Δ -6.4 vs last wk
27
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Rockets"
— Toledo fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence1 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
HHustle Belt
CCampus paper
BBluesky
YYouTube
What little we hear
Only 5 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
Die-hards−0.06
Analytics crowd−0.06
National take−0.06
Millennials−0.06
Gen Z−0.06
How Toledo fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
177 mentions · 6 sources · week 2025-43. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checklight on evidence
~ our readToledo fans are split right down the middle, with almost nothing concrete behind it yet.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 51 posts from Toledo fans this week.
Fanbase Health Index · Toledo · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · Toledo · high confidenceGrowing (59)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 8-5 (62% win rate)64
Volume — 280 effective signal-N79
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.01 — quiet35
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#32 / 138 · 78th pct30.8
Pts allowed/game#4 / 138 · 98th pct13.3
Total yards/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct415.8
Rush yards/gm#41 / 136 · 71st pct177.7
Pass yards/gm#53 / 136 · 62nd pct238.1
Yards allowed/gm#2 / 136 · 99th pct255.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#11 / 136 · 93rd pct99.2
Sacks#12 / 136 · 92nd pct37
Interceptions#34 / 136 · 76th pct13
3rd-down conv#64 / 136 · 54th pct40.2%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team5405415.8/gm6.21/play#40 / 136 · 71st pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp3321255.5/gm4.06/play#2 / 136 · 99th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Rush yards
Team2310177.7/gm2.66/play#41 / 136 · 71st pct#18 / 70 · 76th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp129099.2/gm1.58/play#11 / 136 · 93rd pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Rush carries
Team47136.2/gm#53 / 136 · 62nd pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp46635.8/gm#84 / 136 · 39th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Rush TDs
Team221.7/gm#59 / 136 · 57th pct#34 / 70 · 53rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp120.9/gm#15 / 136 · 90th pct#11 / 70 · 86th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Net pass yards
Team3095238.1/gm3.56/play#53 / 136 · 62nd pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp2031156.2/gm2.48/play#4 / 136 · 98th pct#3 / 70 · 97th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Pass attempts
Team39930.7/gm#70 / 136 · 49th pct#36 / 70 · 50th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp35227.1/gm#32 / 136 · 77th pct#16 / 70 · 79th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Completions
Team25619.7/gm#58 / 136 · 58th pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp17613.5/gm#1 / 136 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Pass TDs
Team272.1/gm#23 / 136 · 84th pct#16 / 70 · 79th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp100.8/gm#5 / 136 · 97th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team145.1145.1#34 / 136 · 76th pct#25 / 70 · 66th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp102.2102.2#2 / 136 · 99th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team100.8/gm#56 / 136 · 60th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp131.0/gm#96 / 136 · 30th pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Sacks (def)
Team372.8/gm#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#8 / 70 · 90th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct
Opp171.3/gm#18 / 136 · 88th pct#12 / 70 · 84th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
Tackles for loss
Team927.1/gm#11 / 136 · 93rd pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Opp655.0/gm#55 / 136 · 60th pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
First downs
Team27521.2/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#29 / 70 · 60th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp19014.6/gm#2 / 136 · 99th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
3rd-down conv
Team705.4/gm#60 / 136 · 57th pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp534.1/gm#6 / 136 · 96th pct#3 / 70 · 97th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
3rd-down att
Team17413.4/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp18314.1/gm#87 / 136 · 37th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
4th-down conv
Team40.3/gm#136 / 136 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp131.0/gm#58 / 136 · 58th pct#28 / 70 · 61st pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
4th-down att
Team171.3/gm#116 / 136 · 15th pct#59 / 70 · 17th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp302.3/gm#92 / 136 · 33rd pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Time of possession
Team395:3830:26/gm#46 / 136 · 67th pct#24 / 70 · 67th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp384:2229:34/gm#78 / 136 · 43rd pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#65 / 135 · 53rd pct10/13 (76.9%)
Extra points43/43
Punting#119 / 136 · 13th pct40.5 avg · 64 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team151.2/gm#75 / 136 · 46th pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp211.6/gm#103 / 136 · 25th pct#54 / 70 · 24th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Fumbles lost
Team50.4/gm#91 / 136 · 34th pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp80.6/gm#90 / 136 · 35th pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
INT return TDs
Team10.1/gm#36 / 135 · 74th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 136 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
INT return yards
Team14311.0/gm#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp131.0/gm#4 / 136 · 98th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Punt ret yds
Team41131.6/gm#7 / 136 · 96th pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp1048.0/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#38 / 70 · 47th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Punt ret TDs
Team10.1/gm#14 / 135 · 90th pct#11 / 70 · 86th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team50638.9/gm#51 / 136 · 63rd pct#21 / 70 · 71st pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp54141.6/gm#102 / 136 · 26th pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Kick ret TDs
Team10.1/gm#7 / 136 · 96th pct#3 / 70 · 97th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#1 / 9 · 100th pct
Penalty yards
Team97074.6/gm#3 / 136 · 99th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp49538.1/gm#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Other
H1 epa per play opponent#2 / 167 · 99th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct-0.1-0.0/gm
Penalties#2 / 136 · 99th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct1118.5/gm
Punt returns#2 / 136 · 99th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct342.6/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#9 / 143 · 94th pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct0.00.0
Fumbles rec (def)#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct50.4/gm
Penalties (opp)#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct644.9/gm
Fumbles recovered#33 / 136 · 76th pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct80.6/gm
Interceptions (def)#34 / 136 · 76th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct131.0/gm
Kick returns#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#18 / 70 · 76th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct231.8/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#64 / 136 · 54th pct#38 / 70 · 47th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct100.8/gm
Fourth down go rate#71 / 138 · 49th pct#38 / 70 · 47th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct0.40.0/gm
Recruiting rating#73 / 138 · 48th pct#66 / 70 · 7th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct175.613.5/gm
H1 epa per play#76 / 162 · 54th pct#46 / 70 · 36th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct0.20.0/gm
Kick ret (opp)#86 / 136 · 38th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct241.8/gm
H2 epa per play#88 / 142 · 39th pct#46 / 70 · 36th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct0.10.0/gm
Red zone pass rate#106 / 154 · 32nd pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct0.30.0/gm
First down pass rate#107 / 215 · 51st pct#37 / 70 · 49th pct#5 / 13 · 69th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct0.40.0/gm
Punt ret (opp)#116 / 136 · 15th pct#62 / 70 · 13th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct221.7/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off40.2%#64 / 136 · 54th pct#38 / 70 · 47th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Def29.0%#5 / 136 · 97th pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
4th-down conversion
Off23.5%#135 / 136 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Def43.3%#23 / 136 · 84th pct#12 / 70 · 84th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Turnover margin#27 / 136 · 81st pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct+0.46/gm
Sack rate (def)#5 / 136 · 97th pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct10.5%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team493.8/gm#43 / 167 · 75th pct#28 / 70 · 61st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp251.9/gm#36 / 166 · 79th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Red zone score %
Team71.4%71.4%#123 / 167 · 27th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp56.0%56.0%#1 / 166 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Points / drive
Team2.10.2/gm#67 / 167 · 60th pct#43 / 70 · 40th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp0.80.1/gm#1 / 166 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / drive
Team37.92.9/gm#108 / 167 · 36th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp26.32.0/gm#1 / 166 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.20.5/gm#130 / 167 · 23rd pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp5.80.4/gm#7 / 166 · 96th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team14.0%14.0%#90 / 167 · 47th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp23.6%23.6%#6 / 166 · 97th pct#3 / 70 · 97th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#71 / 145 · 52nd pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct-1.1%-1.1%
Havoc rate
Team20.5%20.5%#8 / 140 · 95th pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp11.7%11.7%#16 / 140 · 89th pct#8 / 70 · 90th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Standard-downs success
Team50.0%50.0%#49 / 154 · 69th pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp41.6%41.6%#12 / 172 · 94th pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Passing-downs success
Team29.6%29.6%#87 / 153 · 44th pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp19.1%19.1%#1 / 149 · 100th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Line yards / carry
Team2.92.9#69 / 143 · 52nd pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp2.42.4#8 / 155 · 95th pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Stuff rate
Team19.0%19.0%#83 / 143 · 43rd pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp21.6%21.6%#31 / 155 · 81st pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Power success rate
Team80.0%80.0%#15 / 137 · 90th pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp68.4%68.4%#60 / 141 · 58th pct#29 / 70 · 60th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off64.2%#43 / 136 · 69th pct#26 / 70 · 64th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Def50.0%#2 / 136 · 99th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / attempt
Off7.8#41 / 136 · 71st pct#26 / 70 · 64th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Def5.8#7 / 136 · 96th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / completion
Off12.1#48 / 136 · 65th pct#25 / 70 · 66th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Def11.5#71 / 136 · 49th pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Yards / carry#29 / 136 · 79th pct#18 / 70 · 76th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct4.9
Yards / play#27 / 136 · 81st pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct6.21
Scoring margin#9 / 136 · 94th pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct+17.5/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.29 EPA/play | 4 | 12 | 207 / 320 | 64.7 | 2515 #60 FBS | 7.9 | 21 #39 FBS | 9 | 146.7 | 58.9 | 7.7 | 1.5 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt8.0 67th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush usage12.6% bottom 19th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tucker Gleason's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.12 EPA/play | 7 | 7 | 32 / 52 | 61.5 | 427 | 8.2 | 3 | 0 | 149.6 | 55.8 | 7.8 | 10.3 | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| -0.14 EPA/play | 6 | 3 | 17 / 25 | 68 | 153 | 6.1 | 3 | 1 | 151.0 | 46.7 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power Back · +0.14 EPA/play | 1 | 11 | 182 | 1015 #40 FBS | 5.6 | 12 #30 FBS | 75 | 20 | 21.5 | 23.7 | 19.2 | 9.3% (33/356) | |
Yards by week → Power Back· Boom-or-bustShort-yardage and goal-line specialist. Carries the load, owns the red zone. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 10 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush TD rate6.6% 81th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception10.1 77th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chip Trayanum's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.05 EPA/play | 10 | 13 | 105 | 528 | 5.0 | 4 | 37 | 3.8 | 15 | 12.7 | 11.8 | 5.9% (21/356) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.2 50th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception11.4 87th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kenji Christian's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.22 EPA/play | 24 | 8 | 32 | 99 | 3.1 | 0 | 11 | 8 | 5.4 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.54 EPA/play | 2 | 13 | 82 | 1008 #21 FBS | 12.3 | 11 #9 FBS | 71 | 14.6 | 12.6 | 32.0% (114/356) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume82 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)53.6 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Junior Vandeross's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.47 EPA/play | 9 | 13 | 39 | 435 | 11.2 | 2 | 58 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 14.3% (51/356) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Return threatReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. a house-call threat every time he fields it All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior View Trayvon Rudolph's full player page | |||||||||||
| Move TE · +0.33 EPA/play | 89 | 13 | 25 | 335 | 13.4 | 3 | 28 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 9.8% (35/356) | |
Yards by week → Move TELined up out wide as often as inline. Creates mismatches downfield. 34 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception15.9 92th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.3 bottom 31th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jacob Petersen's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.26 EPA/play | 5 | 9 | 16 | 194 | 12.1 | 1 | 24 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 7.0% (25/356) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · junior View Terrell Crosby Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.44 EPA/play | 81 | 7 | 14 | 186 | 13.3 | 1 | 26 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 5.3% (19/356) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2022 class View Eric Holley's full player page | |||||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +1.18 EPA/play | 11 | 7 | 13 | 176 | 13.5 | 3 | 24 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 5.1% (18/356) | |
Yards by week → Jump-Ball Target· Money-downWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 29 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TD rate23.1% 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)1.2 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ryder Treadway's full player page | |||||||||||
| +1.21 EPA/play | 87 | 4 | 8 | 156 | 19.5 | 1 | 46 | 9.4 | 6.7 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 8 | 11 | 43 | 17 | 10 | 6.5 #55 FBS | 9 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.3% 82th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 83rd percentile among FBS IDLs to the 99th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 12 | 13 | 36 | 10 | 3.5 | 3 | 3 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 10th to 66th to 95th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Versatile End | 93 | 10 | 35 | 19 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 8 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2022 class our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 70th percentile among FBS EDGEs, up from the 30th | |||||||
| Versatile End | 58 | 13 | 32 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · senior View Anthony Dunn's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 55 | 12 | 26 | 9 | 3.5 | 3 | 0 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.5% bottom 45th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Doran Ray's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 9 | 12 | 24 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior our readFading: his CFB Index score moved from the 77th to 49th percentile among FBS EDGEs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 97 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 58th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Avery Dunn's full player page | |||||||
| 98 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 94 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0 | |
| 99 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thumper | 38 | 13 | 93 | 52 | 41 | 14.5 #25 FBS | 4.5 | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.6% 81th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume93 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 0th percentile among FBS LBs to the 93rd | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 49 | 11 | 59 | 30 | 29 | 3.5 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.8% 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate5.9% bottom 32th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Chris D'Appolonia's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 20 | 10 | 33 | 13 | 20 | 4.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · junior View Langston Long's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 46 | 11 | 24 | 12 | 12 | 5.5 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage 'BackerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 99 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.3% 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate16.7% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBounce-Back: his CFB Index score shows a real arc: 50th percentile among FBS LBs, fell to 13th, now back up to 66th | |||||||||
| 42 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 40 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 7 | 13 | 77 | 6 | 2 | 5.5 | 0.5 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way National watch / fringe All-American — on the edge of a 1st-team nod. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.8% bottom 49th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 3 | 13 | 49 | 10 #20 FBS | 1 | 2.5 | 0 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Rover | 6 | 11 | 48 | 4 | 5 #6 FBS | 6.5 | 0.5 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.3% 51th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Braden Awls's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 4 | 11 | 42 | 10 #20 FBS | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate23.8% 86th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Avery Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | — | 8 | 26 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.5% 68th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Nasir Bowers's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 22 | 11 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Nicholas Thompson's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 27 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.0% bottom 36th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View DJ Kelly's full player page | |||||||
| 39 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 21 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 45 | 11 | 8/10 | 80 | 42/42 | 66 | 46 |
| 37 | 3 | 2/3 | 66.7 | 0/0 | 6 | 50 |
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.47 EPA/play | 9 | 13 | 18 | 374 | 20.8 | 1 | 96 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 13 | 30 | 362 | 12.1 | 0 | 54 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
K'Von Sherman
LB
93.0 tot (def)
2.
Junior Vandeross
WR
1,008 yds (rec)
3.
DeaMonte Trayanum
RB
1,015 yds (rush)
4.
Tucker Gleason
QB
2,515 yds (pass)
5.
Chris D'Appolonia
LB
59.0 tot (def)
Roster
2025
23
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Martez Poynter
IDL
#7 of 330
Junior Vandeross
WR
#11 of 485
Braden Awls
S
#24 of 544
Esean Carter
IDL
#27 of 330
K'Von Sherman
LB
#50 of 583
Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren
S
#53 of 544
+17 more
Toledo · 2025 schedule & results8-5Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 47% · 1 AP top-25 opponent on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #51 | #84 | +10 | @Kentucky | L 16–24 135 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #52 | #116 | -7.5 | Western Kentucky | W 45–21 130 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #51 | #185 | -34 | Morgan State | W 60–0 132 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #47 | #81 | -11.5 | @Western Michigan | L 13–14 141 | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #50 | #151 | -22.5 | Akron | W 45–3 120 | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #36 | #121 | -10.5 | @Bowling Green | L 23–28 125 | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #42 | #220 | -25.5 | Kent State | W 45–10 122 | 4-3 | 2-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #41 | #105 | -2 | @Washington State | L 7–28 132 | 4-4 | 2-2 |
| 11 | Nov 6 | #55 | #171 | -15.5 | Northern Illinois | W 42–3 127 | 5-4 | 2-2 |
| 12 | Nov 13 | #37 | #63 | -5.5 | @Miami (OH) | W 24–3 133 | 6-4 | 3-2 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #26 | #219 | -28.5 | Ball State | W 38–9 136 | 7-4 | 4-2 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #27 | #84 | -11.5 | @Central Michigan | W 21–3 127 | 8-4 | 5-2 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 17 | Dec 23 | #25 | #31 | +11.5 | Louisville (N) | L 22–27 | 8-5 | 5-2 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23 | Louisville | L 22–27 | — | — | — | +0.051 | 40.6% | 104.7% | One-score loss |
| Nov 29 | @Central Michigan | W 21–3 | 411 | 1 | 28:34 | +0.166 | 43.5% | 117.3% | |
| Nov 22 | Ball State | W 38–9 | 404 | 2 | 22:56 | +0.152 | 45.0% | 132.1% | Blowout win |
| Nov 13 | @Miami (OH) | W 24–3 | 312 | 3 | 30:09 | +0.086 | 41.5% | 129.4% | |
| Nov 6 | Northern Illinois | W 42–3 | 443 | 0 | 30:18 | +0.441 | 53.1% | 119.0% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 25 | @Washington State | L 7–28 | 299 | 1 | 27:27 | -0.042 | 34.3% | 121.9% | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 18 | Kent State | W 45–10 | 552 | 0 | 33:48 | +0.455 | 47.1% | 149.4% | Most explosive |
| Oct 11 | @Bowling Green | L 23–28 | 429 | 2 | 34:08 | +0.074 | 47.2% | 99.6% | One-score loss |
| Sep 27 | Akron | W 45–3 | 545 | 0 | 31:07 | +0.559 | 60.7% | 121.2% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 20 | @Western Michigan | L 13–14 | 280 | 2 | 29:42 | -0.133 | 30.6% | 104.4% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 13 | Morgan State | W 60–0 | 557 | 1 | 33:59 | +0.375 | 58.5% | 108.2% | Blowout win |
| Sep 6 | Western Kentucky | W 45–21 | 508 | 1 | 33:25 | +0.461 | 46.0% | 134.5% | |
| Aug 30 | @Kentucky | L 16–24 | 329 | 1 | 28:19 | +0.040 | 30.9% | 142.5% | One-score loss |
| Season average (13 games) | 422 | 1.2 | +0.207 | 44.5% | 121.9% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025Toledo fields a strong methodical, ball-control offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Toledo actually scores
50th percentile quality, 61st percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Toledo's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 49th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 15th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Toledo hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
67th percentile success on standard downs, 42nd on passing downs — a 25-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Toledo by half
1st-half offense ranks 54th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 39th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Toledo's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.21; 79th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.06. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.29 raw vs. 0.06 adjusted.
Toledo reads strongest in epa allowed (top 1%) and passing epa allowed (top 2%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Toledo sits at the 32nd percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · Toledo
Most Similar Programs · ToledoReads Like
AkronTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontApp StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizonaTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Toledo · 2018-present
Elite
78% home win rate vs 47% on the road. margin runs +18.3 better at home. Glass Bowl seats 26,038, averaging 79% full (20,487 attendance, 24 games reported).
Home36-10Away21-23
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Chip Trayanum and Kenji Christian split the carries (180/284 vs 104/284) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Chip TrayanumKenji Christian
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Inside the 5
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Q4, leading (competitive)
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
concentration alone -- EPA/carry doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 4 claims, 0 survived, 4 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Junior Vandeross (WR) and Jacob Petersen (TE) split the targets (107/140 vs 33/140) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Junior VanderossJacob Petersen
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 3 claims, 0 survived, 3 falsified
What changed
Toledo’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Brian Wright (2016–2019) → co-Michael (Mike) Hallett / co-Robert Weiner (2020–2025)
The biggest shift: 4th-down go rate moved up 11 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
4th-down go rate
Defense: Vince Kehres / co-Ross Watson / co-Craig Kuligowski (2020–2023) → Vince Kehres / co-Ross Watson (2024–2025)
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
4th-down go rate
Season by season
How Toledo’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Offense: co-Michael (Mike) Hallett / co-Robert Weiner (2020–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2020: 38% → 2025: 44% · 10-pt range · #71 of 171 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2020: 47% → 2025: 33% · 15-pt range · #60 of 171 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2020: 50% → 2025: 38% · 20-pt range · #59 of 171 · a typical amount
Defense: Vince Kehres / co-Ross Watson (2024–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 42% → 2025: 44% · 1-pt range · #190 of 189 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 48% → 2025: 33% · 15-pt range · #83 of 189 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2024: 48% → 2025: 38% · 10-pt range · #144 of 188 · less than most
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, Toledo’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (57.8% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 131-play sample) — stingiest, 2 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=131 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 49.6%
Venue texture
61°F average kickoff temp; 10% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 70 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
Toledo's 2014–2025 record is 99-50. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
439-303-8
since 1923 · 74 seasons · .585 win rate
HOME
260-95-3
AWAY
164-194-5
NEUTRAL
15-14
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
Jason Candle became the winningest coach in Toledo history, won two MAC titles, and left for UConn. The Rockets went 8-4 in 2025 and blew a 21-0 lead to lose the Battle of I-75 to Bowling Green. Now a Maumee native who played at Ohio State is inheriting the machine.
Toledo is the MAC's quiet institution — a half-century of consistently good football in the Glass Bowl, a 1937 WPA-era stone stadium that is one of the oldest and most characterful venues in the conference. The 35-game regular-season unbeaten streak from 1969 to 1972 is the program's deepest canon, capped by a quarterback named Chuck Ealey who never lost a college game. That kind of winning doesn't happen by accident at a mid-sized Ohio school; it happens because the culture of the program is built around the MAC title as the standard, not the exception.
Candle's decade — MAC championships in 2017 and 2022, sustained top-half-of-the-conference football, and finally the all-time wins record — represented exactly what the program is supposed to be. Then he left for UConn. The final wound of his tenure was the 2025 I-75 game: Toledo led Bowling Green 21-0 and lost 28-23, the kind of collapse that stings more because the program finished 8-4 and still ended the season with a loss to its oldest rival rattling around the locker room. Now Mike Jacobs — a Maumee native, a former Ohio State offensive lineman, a coach who built Mercer into an FCS program — takes over with a stocked roster and the weight of following the program's best-ever coach.
The 2026 MAC race will begin to answer the question Toledo's faithful are asking quietly: was the consistent winning about the program's bones or about the man who ran it? The Glass Bowl will be the same; the 35-game streak will be on the wall; the answer is on the field in fall.
How they play
MAC-stalwart steadiness — disciplined, well-coached, year-in-year-out competitive football that wins by scheme and conditioning rather than talent margin. The Glass Bowl's WPA-era intimacy creates a real home-field effect. Jacobs inherits a pro-style system with enough flexibility to adapt, and Toledo's reputation as a well-run program means its portal retention and recruiting pitch are stronger than most MAC competitors. The identity is: you don't surprise Toledo, because Toledo is almost always ready.
Steady
Toledo 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.04 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.
CFP Era · Toledo
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 8-5
Season Standing · 2025 · 8-5Bowl eligible
Toledo: 6+ wins, bowl access secured. The baseline of a successful FBS year.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
Mid-American Standing · 2025
3rd in the Mid-American
Toledo is 3rd in the Mid-American at 5-2. 2 teams above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Michigan | 7-1 |
| 2 | Ohio | 5-2 |
| 3 | Toledo | 5-2 |
| 4 | Central Michigan | 5-3 |
| 5 | Miami (OH) | 5-3 |
| 6 | Akron | 4-4 |
| 7 | Buffalo | 4-4 |
| 8 | Ball State | 3-4 |
| 9 | Kent State | 3-4 |
| 10 | Eastern Michigan | 2-5 |
| 11 | Bowling Green | 2-6 |
| 12 | Sacramento State | 0-0 |
| 13 | Massachusetts | 0-7 |
Coaching Era · Toledo
Coaching Era · ToledoMike Jacobs
Mike Jacobs took over from Jason Candle for the 2026 season.
Era Mike Jacobs · 2026–presentPrev: Jason Candle (2015–2025)OC: Cris ReisertPrev OC: co-Michael (Mike) Hallett / co-Robert Weiner (2020–2025)DC: Jahmal BrownPrev DC: Vince Kehres / co-Ross Watson (2024–2025)
1
year · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
Glass Bowl Stadium
since 1937
The Glass Bowl — built 1937 as a WPA project, named for its proximity to Toledo's then-thriving glass industry — is one of CFB's most-architecturally-distinct stadiums. The brick + limestone construction + the 26,000 capacity + the on-campus location + the historical-anchor identity create a venue distinct from larger flagship-state programs.
1969-1972 35-Game Unbeaten Streak
since 1969
Frank Lauterbur's 1969-1972 tenure produced a 35-game unbeaten regular-season streak (some sources cite 35, others 32-37 depending on inclusion criteria) — at the time, a national record. Three MAC championships in four years + multiple Tangerine Bowl appearances + the era as the program's all-time peak. Lauterbur's departure for the Iowa head coaching job opened the next cycle.
Jason Candle Era (2016-present)
since 2016
Jason Candle's 2016-present tenure — promoted from within after Matt Campbell's departure to Iowa State — has produced multiple MAC championship game appearances + bowl wins + sustained competitive cycles. Candle's longevity (9+ seasons) is rare in modern MAC head-coach tenures.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1971
The 35-game unbeaten streak
Toledo runs three full seasons without a regular-season loss
The 2017 MAC championship
Candle's Rockets win the conference title
2025
Blowing the I-75 lead
Toledo leads Bowling Green 21-0 and loses 28-23 in the Battle of I-75
Heartbreak
Moment of the Year · Toledo · 2025
Moment of the Year · Toledo · 2025Postseason · Lost 22-27 at Louisville
Week 17 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2014-2025): 4-6
Most recent: 2025 — loss 27-22 (away). Last 5 postseason: 2-3.
20252024202320222021
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–2026
NFL Draft PipelineDeveloping
7 picks last 5 cycles. Pipeline emerging.
7
picks · 1 R1
#22
Quinyon Mitchell
Cornerback · 2024 · Philadelphia · #39/339 final season
#58
Emmanuel McNeil-Warren
Safety · 2026 · Cleveland · #53/544 final season
#65
Darius Alexander
Defensive Tackle · 2025 · New York · #8/285 final season
#100 all-time · 2 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
Toledo’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014 · co-Jason Candle / co-Louis Ayeni2015 · Jason Candle2016–2019 · Brian Wright2020–2025 · co-Michael (Mike) Hallett / co-Robert Weiner
Hired for 2026: Cris Reisert — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Defense2014–2025
2014–2015 · Jon Heacock2016–2019 · Brian George2020–2023 · Vince Kehres / co-Ross Watson / co-Craig Kuligowski2024–2025 · Vince Kehres / co-Ross Watson
Hired for 2026: Jahmal Brown — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
Among the most continuous rosters into 2025 — 68% back, anchored by the qb room, only offense to settle.
The portal upgraded the CB room but opened a hole at WR.
DB took the biggest 2026 draft hit (2 picks) — the reload watch is on.
Toledo sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.
r/cfb moments
821
[Postgame Thread] Toledo Defeats BYU 28-21
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
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