Next game: at Sacramento State
Toledo’s best edge on Sacramento State is big plays
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Toledo offense against Sacramento State defense
Sacramento State offense against Toledo defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vertical Passer · +0.27 EPA/play | 6 | 8 | 173 / 259 | 66.8 | 2244 #10 FBS | 8.7 | 17 #19 FBS | 2 | 159.7 | 63 | 58.6 | 9.3 | 1.9 | |
Yards by week → Vertical passerElite arm talent, pushing downfield. Completion rate is the variable. Impact starter — 259 pass attempts and 18 carries in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Richter pushes it downfield on every look. III is the one who extends plays on the move until something opens up. Season receipt Yards / attempt8.7 78th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush usage6.5% bottom 7th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View John Alan Richter's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.16 EPA/play | 22 | 8 | 109 | 609 #47 FBS | 5.6 | 7 #36 FBS | 68 | 16.5 | 16.5 | |
Yards by week → Workhorse· Boom-or-bustBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 109 carries and 9 catches in 8 games, more touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Miller just keeps getting the ball, series after series. IV is the one who wears you down at the goal line. Season receipt Weight230 lb 96th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate6.4% 74th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View CJ Miller's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.02 EPA/play | 8 | 7 | 73 | 424 | 5.8 | 7 #36 FBS | 71 | 11.0 | 15.1 | |
Yards by week → Balanced back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 73 carries and 12 catches in 7 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Walendzak does a little of everything without one standout trait. IV is the one who wears you down at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / carry5.8 66th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate9.6% 96th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Connor Walendzak's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.12 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 67 | 323 | 4.8 | 3 | 42 | 10.8 | 9.2 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 67 carries and 2 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Ison does a little of everything without one standout trait. IV is the one who wears you down at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / carry5.1 bottom 42th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share2.9% bottom 8th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Autavius Ison's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.53 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 40 | 592 #46 FBS | 14.8 | 7 #17 FBS | 60 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Starter — 40 catches in 8 games, more catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Dabbs wins underneath on volume and route precision. Harding is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume40 89th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate17.5% 90th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Adjatay Dabbs's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.87 EPA/play | 12 | 8 | 28 | 494 | 17.6 | 2 | 78 | |
Yards by week → Deep threat· Boom-or-bustStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 28 catches in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Hammer beats you over the top. Harding is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception18.0 90th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Bryson Hammer's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.07 EPA/play | 5 | 7 | 22 | 229 | 10.4 | 0 | 26 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 22 catches and 2 carries in 7 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Jr. moves the chains on third down. Harding is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception11.2 bottom 26th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 9th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Terrell Crosby Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.32 EPA/play | 43 | 6 | 19 | 222 | 11.7 | 0 | 45 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 19 catches in 6 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Sam Lee's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.65 EPA/play | 19 | 8 | 17 | 220 | 12.9 | 3 | 35 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Jr. moves the chains on third down. Harding is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception12.3 bottom 38th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate17.6% 90th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Daryl Barnett Jr.'s full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.38 EPA/play | 1 | 5 | 12 | 191 | 15.9 | 1 | 85 | |
Yards by week → Deep threat· Boom-or-bustStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine This week's matchup — WR Bond beats you over the top. Harding is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception20.8 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume12 bottom 13th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint View Rico Bond's full player page | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pressure Merchant | — | 8 | 46 | 23 | 12 #9 FBS | 8 #6 FBS | 17 |
Pressure merchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. Impact starter — 46 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 22 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.4 97th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Andrew Zock's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 90 | 8 | 24 | 8 | 5.5 | 3 | 5 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Starter — 24 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Zach Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 96 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Nate Chandler's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 52 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate33.3% 95th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Lucas Lambert's full player page | |||||||
| Pressure Merchant | 2 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Pressure merchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. 22 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.4 97th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ezra Odinjor's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.0% bottom 33th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Caden Camese's full player page | |||||||
| 95 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | |
| 98 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 92 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 10 | 8 | 64 | 28 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 64 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume64 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Julian Fox's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 44 | 8 | 60 | 25 | 35 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 4 | 2 #51 FBS |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Starter — 60 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Isaac Zay's full player pagePD rate6.7% 86th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 19 | 7 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume20 bottom 16th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.5% bottom 17th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Isaac Prince's full player page | |||||||||
| 5 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 7 | 8 | 58 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Impact starter — 58 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.6% 54th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Armorion Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 23 | 7 | 31 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Perimeter tacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. 31 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume31 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Israel Petite's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 22 | 7 | 31 | 2 | 1 | 3.5 | 1 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 31 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume31 bottom 50th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Nicholas Thompson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 8 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 29 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Donovan Watkins's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 12 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 29 tackles in 5 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman View Mo Conteh's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 17 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 4 of 10 games this season · freshman View Kaleb Hutchinson's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 1 | 6 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Cam Jones's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 25 | 7 | 11 | 6 #43 FBS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate54.5% 100th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyrell Russell's full player page | |||||||
| 8 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 93 | 8 | 8/12 | 66.7 | 37/37 | 61 | 49 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 47 | 8 | 25 | 1035 | 41.4 | 55 | 10 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.87 EPA/play | 12 | 8 | 7 | 144 | 20.6 | 0 | 36 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.87 EPA/play | 12 | 8 | 7 | 63 | 9 | 0 | 22 |
Biggest plays from Toledo’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Toledo’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 0:54 · Toledo down 7, ties itJohn Alan Richter finds Daryl Barnett Jr. for a 23-yard touchdownTemple at Toledo, week 3Q4, 0:54 · Toledo 42, Temple 420:54Game-tying touchdown for Toledo with 0:54 left0:54Game-tying touchdown for Toledo with 0:54 leftGame-tying touchdown for Toledo with 0:54 leftJ.Richter pass complete deep right to D.Barnett Jr. caught at TEMPLE00, for 23 yards to the TEMPLE00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football
Q4, 11:40 · Temple down 1, takes the leadAjani Sheppard finds Colin Chase for a 69-yard touchdownTemple at Toledo, week 3Q4, 11:40 · Temple 35, Toledo 286969-yard touchdown pass6969-yard touchdown pass69-yard touchdown passA.Sheppard pass complete deep right to C.Chase caught at TOLEDO38, for 69 yards to the TOLEDO00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN P.Clarke pass attempt Successful▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football- Q4, 14:55 · Temple up 6Temple turns it overTemple at Toledo, week 3Q4, 14:55 · Temple 27, Toledo 21▼23%Temple’s chance to win, 72% to 49%▼23%Temple’s chance to win, 72% to 49%A.Sheppard sacked for loss of 6 yards to the TEMPLE32 (N.Thompson), fumble by A.Sheppard recovered by TOLEDO A.Zock at TEMPLE32, End Of Play▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 4:23 · Toledo breaks the tieCJ Miller runs 11 yards for a touchdownWestern Michigan at Toledo, week 8Q4, 4:23 · Toledo 45, Western Michigan 384:23Go-ahead touchdown for Toledo with 4:23 left4:23Go-ahead touchdown for Toledo with 4:23 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Toledo with 4:23 leftC.Miller rush middle for 11 yards gain to the WMU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q4, 1:05 · Toledo down 14John Alan Richter finds CJ Miller for a 10-yard touchdownTemple at Toledo, week 3Q4, 1:05 · Toledo 35, Temple 42Toledo cut the deficit to 7 in the fourth quarterToledo cut the deficit to 7 in the fourth quarterJ.Richter pass complete short left to C.Miller caught at TEMPLE09, for 10 yards to the TEMPLE00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
Q3, 3:14 · Western Michigan down 10Broc Lowry finds Baylin Brooks for a 41-yard touchdownWestern Michigan at Toledo, week 8Q3, 3:14 · Western Michigan 35, Toledo 38Western Michigan cut the deficit to 3 in the third quarterWestern Michigan cut the deficit to 3 in the third quarterB.Lowry pass complete deep middle to B.Brooks caught at TOLEDO08, for 41 yards to the TOLEDO00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
How scary each game got
Toledo lost at Michigan State after being 63% to win; the closest win was against Temple, down to 1%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Toledo during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Toledo
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · ToledoJulian Fox leads Toledo with 64 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+18 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Toledo fields an elite explosive, big-play offense behind an elite defense, though it gives up the big play.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Toledo reads strongest in explosive plays (top 4%) and success rate allowed (top 5%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Toledo sits at the 6th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Toledo is worth +5.7 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 77th percentile of 133 programs
74% at home, 49% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (32-11 home, 23-24 away). Interval ±3.8.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Toledo has beaten the number by +5.0 more at home than away over 98 games. That is inside the ±5.9 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Glass Bowl seats 26,038 and has averaged 79% full (20,684, 29 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 180 miles trip since 2018, the 3rd-shortest of 135 FBS venues. Whatever the band above is picking up, it isn't the flight. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 26% of the 2026 roster (32 of 122 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 51 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downJunior Vandeross is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- UnderdogJunior Vandeross produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Garbage timeChip Trayanum does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
- Deep threatJacob Petersen is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Garbage timeJunior Vandeross does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
CJ Miller and Connor Walendzak split the carries (108/181 vs 73/181) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Adjatay Dabbs (WR) and Sam Lee (TE) split the targets (61/84 vs 23/84) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Toledo actually scores
84th percentile quality, 24th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Toledo’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 74th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 94th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Toledo hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
73rd percentile success on standard downs, 52nd on passing downs — a 21-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Toledo by half
1st-half offense ranks 60th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 93rd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Toledo’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.24; 74th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.07. The widest gap came in week 4: 0.33 raw vs. 0.06 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Toledo’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.9% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 221-play sample) — mid-pack, 101 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Toledo’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (62.7% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 202-play sample) — mid-pack, 5 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
Recovering 86% of the fumbles they've forced — running hot vs. the ~48% league rate.
6 of 7 forced fumbles recovered; 3 of 10 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Converting 14% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~18% league rate.
5 interceptions of 37 disrupted passes (32 deflected, 5 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Losing the penalty battle: 68 penalties committed vs. 37 drawn on opponents, a 312-yard deficit.
592 penalty yards committed vs. 280 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Toledo
Most similar programs · ToledoReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH
Usual during the game around Nov 11: 44°, between 33° and 58° in about 7 in 10 games (29 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 53°, and 8 in 10 ran between 33° and 78° (55 road games).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.