Toledo

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Pat Fitzgerald Era Begins with Michigan State Facing Toledo in Openerour readToledo basketball to face Louisiana Tech in MAC-SBC Challenge openerour readThe Northern Illinois rivalry

Mid-American · Mike Jacobs, year 1 (1-1) · Glass Bowl · 26,038 · 18,435 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#48 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #103 (-9.4) · FPI #76
The marketToledo by 6vs Temple · our model 76% Toledo · a number, not a pick

LastW 63–10 vs Central Connecticut · Sat Sep 12 · John Alan Richter 252 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 rush yds

Nextvs Temple · Sat Sep 19 · 3 pm ET · Glass Bowl · Toledo by 6 · series 7-3, won the last 2 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
41.5
Pts allowed/game
20.0
Total yards/gm#65 / 138 · 53rd pct
421.0
Rush yards/gm#76 / 138 · 45th pct
166.5
Pass yards/gm#58 / 138 · 58th pct
254.5
Yards allowed/gmT-#41 / 138 · 70th pct
268.0
Rush yds allowed/gm#62 / 138 · 55th pct
111.5
SacksT-#60 / 138 · 50th pct
4
InterceptionsT-#63 / 115 · 23rd pct
1
3rd-down convT-#64 / 138 · 53rd pct
42.9%
All 84 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
842421.0/gm7.20/play#65 / 138 · 53rd pct#42 / 70 · 41st pct#3 / 13 · 81st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
536268.0/gm3.80/playT-#41 / 138 · 70th pctT-#35 / 70 · 50th pct#1 / 13 · 96th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
333166.5/gm2.85/play#76 / 138 · 45th pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#4 / 13 · 73rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
223111.5/gm1.58/play#62 / 138 · 55th pct#46 / 70 · 35th pct#4 / 13 · 73rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
6532.5/gmT-#104 / 138 · 23rd pctT-#53 / 70 · 23rd pct#10 / 13 · 27th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
7437.0/gmT-#91 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#53 / 70 · 21st pct#9 / 13 · 35th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
52.5/gmT-#35 / 138 · 70th pctT-#23 / 70 · 60th pct#1 / 13 · 96th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 73rd pctT-#18 / 70 · 64th pctT-#2 / 13 · 77th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
509254.5/gm4.35/play#58 / 138 · 58th pct#38 / 70 · 46th pct#3 / 13 · 81st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
313156.5/gm2.22/play#36 / 138 · 74th pct#28 / 70 · 61st pct#2 / 13 · 88th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
5226.0/gmT-#91 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#54 / 70 · 22nd pctT-#6 / 13 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6733.5/gmT-#95 / 138 · 31st pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#7 / 13 · 50th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
3015.0/gmT-#107 / 138 · 22nd pct#60 / 70 · 15th pctT-#10 / 13 · 23rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3919.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 39th pctT-#47 / 70 · 31st pctT-#3 / 13 · 77th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
63.0/gmT-#17 / 138 · 83rd pctT-#14 / 70 · 74th pctT-#1 / 13 · 92nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#13 / 138 · 80th pctT-#11 / 70 · 72nd pctT-#1 / 13 · 92nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
174.1174.1#23 / 115 · 80th pct#20 / 60 · 68th pct#2 / 13 · 92nd pct
Opp
96.496.4#10 / 91 · 90th pct#8 / 42 · 82nd pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
21.0/gmT-#23 / 138 · 74th pctT-#8 / 70 · 77th pctT-#4 / 13 · 69th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 64th pctT-#11 / 70 · 64th pctT-#5 / 13 · 54th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
42.0/gmT-#60 / 138 · 50th pctT-#36 / 70 · 40th pctT-#5 / 13 · 62nd pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#33 / 138 · 67th pctT-#20 / 70 · 61st pctT-#3 / 13 · 73rd pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
105.0/gmT-#79 / 138 · 38th pctT-#45 / 70 · 31st pctT-#5 / 13 · 58th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
105.0/gmT-#66 / 138 · 47th pctT-#42 / 70 · 37th pctT-#7 / 13 · 38th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
3819.0/gmT-#97 / 138 · 29th pctT-#56 / 70 · 19th pct#6 / 13 · 58th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3316.5/gmT-#53 / 138 · 61st pctT-#39 / 70 · 44th pct#2 / 13 · 88th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
94.5/gmT-#85 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#50 / 70 · 24th pct#8 / 13 · 42nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
105.0/gmT-#66 / 138 · 48th pctT-#42 / 70 · 35th pctT-#5 / 13 · 62nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2110.5/gmT-#114 / 138 · 15th pctT-#57 / 70 · 16th pctT-#11 / 13 · 15th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3417.0/gmT-#118 / 138 · 14th pctT-#65 / 70 · 6th pct#10 / 13 · 27th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
10.5/gmT-#85 / 138 · 29th pctT-#44 / 70 · 32nd pctT-#8 / 13 · 27th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#71 / 138 · 37th pctT-#40 / 70 · 32nd pctT-#4 / 13 · 54th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
42.0/gmT-#47 / 138 · 60th pctT-#24 / 70 · 59th pctT-#3 / 13 · 77th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.5/gmT-#54 / 138 · 52nd pctT-#30 / 70 · 49th pct#6 / 13 · 58th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
50:4725:24/gm#132 / 138 · 5th pct#69 / 70 · 2nd pct#13 / 13 · 4th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
69:1334:36/gm#123 / 138 · 11th pct#69 / 70 · 2nd pct#11 / 13 · 19th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.37 EPA/play6227 / 4560448
#60 FBS		10.05
#22 FBS		1175.85862.2——
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+1.23 EPA/play32813516.93
#9 FBS		60
+0.35 EPA/play122610617.7031

2026 stat leaders · Toledo

through 2 games

Isaac Zay leads Toledo with 19 tackles through 2 games.

1. Isaac Zay LB 19 tackles
2. Julian Fox LB 18 tackles
3. Mo Conteh S 13 tackles
4. Adjatay Dabbs WR 135 receiving yards
5. Rico Bond WR 135 receiving yards
How They Play · 2025

Toledo fields a strong methodical, ball-control offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
74th pct EPA/play
Tempo
70th pct success, 33rd explosiveness
Defense
99th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
78th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Toledo · 2025

Toledo reads strongest in epa allowed (top 1%) and passing epa allowed (top 2%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Toledo sits at the 32nd percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.21
74th
Success Rate +0.45
70th
Explosive Plays +1.22
33rd
Rushing EPA +0.11
50th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed -0.08
99th
Success Rate Allowed +0.33
97th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.18
78th
Passing EPA Allowed -0.02
98th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.36
73rd
Rushing EPA Allowed -0.04
92nd
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 13 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Toledo · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Toledo is worth +6.4 points more at home than on the road.

Top third of FBS, 85th percentile of 133 programs

74% at home, 47% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (29–10 home, 21–24 away). Interval ±4.0.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Toledo has beaten the number by 10.1 points more at home than away over 74 games — outside the ±6.6 that many games can resolve. This is one of the few buildings where the results say something the flat number does not.

Glass Bowl seats 26,038 and has averaged 78% full (20,404, 25 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 159 miles trip since 2018, the 2nd-shortest of 135 FBS venues. Whatever the band above is picking up, it isn't the flight. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 26% of the 2026 roster (32 of 122 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 47 home games since 2018.

Home29–10Away21–24Edge+6.4 ±4.0Visitor trip159 mi

More in this tab

RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Toledo

CFB Zeitgeist

#48

+3.4

SP+

#103

-9.4

FPI

#76

-1.6

Elo

#45

1576

The national models put Toledo between 45th and 103rd nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 48th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Toledo

Reads like

AkronMid-AmericanSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontApp StateSun BeltSame tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizonaBig 12Same tier of program · Same prestige band · Similarly-sized rosters up front

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

62°F average kickoff temp; 10% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.

Based on 72 home games with weather data.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site