CFB Zeitgeist Score
37
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by completion % at the 89th percentile.
John Alan Richter
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
153 PASS YDS · 3 PASS TD · 15 RUSH YDS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Toledo for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Quarterback · Toledo
Returning around him
- 68% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 2 Toledo players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -5 net (33 in / 38 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Toledo · Last season: 8-5 · Talent rank #75 · 2026 recruiting class #73
QB · TOLEDO · MID-AMERICAN
John Alan Richter
- 3
- #6
- 6-3 | 225 lb
- Gray, GA
Heisman Heat
#192
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2023–2025+212%
Up 212% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Toledo
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8100 | No. 2024 recruit | HighSchool | Toledo |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Toledo
Composite
0.8100
#2024 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on John Alan Richter
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about John Alan Richter
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 3g
153Pass yards
3Pass TDs
1INT
Per game
51Pass yards
1Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
663Pass yards
13Pass TDs
4INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 153): needs 284.7/game over remaining 10.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 153): needs 384.7/game over remaining 10.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 3): needs 2.2/game over remaining 10.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 3): needs 2.7/game over remaining 10.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 3): needs 3.2/game over remaining 10.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
John Alan Richter's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Toledo, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Efficient | Pocket-leaning against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
17 39th
ATT
25 41st
CMP%
68.0% 79th
Y/A
6.1 34th
Passing Production
YDS
153 36th
TD
3 57th
INT
1 63rd
Rushing
CAR
4 24th
YDS
15 36th
YPC
3.8 63rd
TD
0 44th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 2 | W 45-21vs Western Kentucky | 5/9 | 46 | 1 | 1 | 5.1 | 35.5 | |
| Wk 3 | W 60-0vs Morgan State | 10/14 | 93 | 2 | 0 | 6.6 | 71.7 | Season-high 93 yds |
| Wk 5 | W 45-3vs Akron | 2/2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 7.0 | 33.0 | |
| Total | 17/25 | 153 | 3 | 1 | 6.2 | 46.7 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Toledo11-3HC: Jason Candle · Run-leaning
2024Toledo8-5HC: Jason Candle · Balanced
2025Toledo8-5HC: Jason Candle · Run-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 153 | #244/382 | 36th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 3 | #178/407 | 57th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 17 | #233/383 | 39th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 68.0% | #80/383 | 79th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 6.1 | #254/382 | 34th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 15 | #263/408 | 36th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.31 | #69/200 | 66th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 69 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 13.6% | #248/428 | 42nd pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 25 | #241/407 | 41st pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 1 | #153/407 | 63rd pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 9 | #311/391 | 21st pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 4 | #312/408 | 24th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 3.8 | #153/407 | 63rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #230/408 | 44th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 30.5% | #217/428 | 50th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 23.5% | #227/428 | 47th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 16.3% | #252/428 | 41st pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 15.2% | #236/428 | 45th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 12.7% | #237/428 | 45th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 9.6% | #261/428 | 39th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 2.4% | #353/428 | 18th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 51.0 | 1.0 | 6.2 | 0.3 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins3g | 51.0 | 1.0 | 6.2 | 0.3 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 51.0 | 1.0 | 6.2 | 0.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
37Mid-pack
Elite: interceptions (97th). Strength: completion % (89th). Concern: pass yards (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
John Alan RichterToledoNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 58% simDrake LindseyMinnesota· 56% simJalen KitnaUAB· 52% sim
Interceptions
Completion %
Rush yards
Yards / att
Rush TDs
Pass TDs
Pass yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jason Candle
Pass share
45.9%
397 pass / 467 run
Plays / game
66.5
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
4.5%
290 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
1 coach2023
Jason Candle
Toledo
2024
Jason Candle
Toledo
2025
Jason Candle
Toledo
Played his entire career under Jason Candle.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownGray, GA
Height6'3"
Weight225 lb
Class3
PositionQB
Jersey6
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamToledo
ConferenceMid-American
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.