Junior quarterback for NC State. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
6′6″ · 213 lb · Miami, FL · Chaminade-Madonna
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
The numbers
passing yards · 2026 · through week 3
3 games into 2026 so far -- Backed by 9 car · 83 yds · 3 TD -- top 1% rushing TDs game.
Swing playSwung NC State from 40% to 68% to win.NC State at Vanderbilt · 35-31
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Junior quarterback for NC State. 2026: 3 games with a box-score line.
Aura™ · Him Watch
-17aura tax
83rd pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=96
— the discourse is fair.Buzz vs Tape
His own fans are far more bullish than the rival fanbase.
The Miami defense dominated from start to finish, Jakobe Thomas picked off 2 passes- taking one back 60 yards to the house, Carson Beck tossed 3 touchdown passes- 2 to freshman Malachi Toney, fellow frosh Girard Pringle Jr. ran for over…
Also worth knowing:
“The good news is Miami doesn't have CJ Bailey at QB!”
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
They remain in the top-half of the conference thanks to do-it-all quarterback CJ Bailey and the league’s best schedule draw.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 28, 2026 · via CFB
CJ Bailey
Keeps the offense on schedule and doesn't lose the game. Third year in the NC State quarterback room, same address the whole way. His first career honor landed in 2024: ACC Rookie Player of the Week. The receipt on tape: 281 pass yds, 25 rush yds against Richmond, Week 2, 2026.
640 PASS YDS · 4 PASS TD · 93 RUSH YDS
Low coverage — composed from the verified record.
His career
He was winning awards before he was old enough to be a story.
Career arc
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2024–2026
1 coachPlayed his entire career under Dave Doeren.
Game by game
Point color shows the opponent's defensive strength that week (red = weaker defense, blue = stronger) — dashed line is this player's own season average.
Game log · Week-by-week
2026 season · 3 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 8-34@ Virginia | 12/23 | 84 | 0 | 1 | 3.7 | 39.5 | |
| Wk 2 | W 73-0vs Richmond | 13/17 | 281 | 1 | 0 | 16.5 | 92.0 | Season-high 281 yds |
| Wk 3 | L 31-35@ Vanderbilt | 25/37 | 275 | 3 | 1 | 7.4 | 74.3 | 3 TD passes |
| Total | 50/77 | 640 | 4 | 2 | 9.2 | 68.6 |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 2 · 2026
W 73–0
vs Richmond
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Since week 2: +275 passing yards, +3 passing TD, +1 interception.
Season context · Team result + system
3 seasons under Dave Doeren — 15-14 over that span.
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Concern: fumbles lost (9th percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
7.5463 of 126 QBsSack rate
4.9%71 of 126 QBsSacked on 4.9% of dropbacks (71 of 126) — and still 63 of 126 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 64.6% completion on 79 attempts · 27% completion on 11 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Zeitgeist Passer Rating
2026 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.
Thin sample: 69 dropbacks56Zeitgeist Passer Ratingnot ranked until 125 dropbacks
--NCAA passer ratingno box-score line yet
Positive-play rate weight 24%
50.9%86th pct of FBS QBsshare of dropbacks that gained expected points · -1.3% schedule adj.Yards per attempt weight 56%
7.2859th pct of FBS QBssacks excluded · -0.4 schedule adj.Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)
4.5%70th pct of FBS QBsthe input passer rating cannot see · +0.1% schedule adj.Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (14 of 83 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. Scaled against the 2025 FBS population until enough 2026 QBs qualify. How ZPR is built.
Splits · Per-game
2026 season · 3 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home1g | 281 | 1.0 | 16.5 | 0.0 |
| Road2g | 180 | 1.5 | 5.6 | 1.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-73g | 213 | 1.3 | 9.2 | 0.7 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dave Doeren
Pass share
44.9%
89 pass / 109 run
Plays / game
66.0
3 games
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Player standing · 2026
Our Heisman model has him inside the top 25; he is not on a published award watch list yet.
Recognition
2026 outlook
In the mix for All-ACC
Based on 2025: #5 of 17 ACC QBs
35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.
Play style
Consistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone.
CFB Index positional classification
Player DNA
Consistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone.
His 2025 production profile sits closest to CJ Bailey’s 2024 season.
Differs from CJ on
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Eli Peters’s path through Toledo.
Matches Eli on
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Nico Iamaleava's sophomore season at Tennessee (2024).
Matches Nico on
Differs from Nico on
Player DNA
Heisman Trajectory · 2026
Peaked at #152 this season.
AS A SOPHOMORE (2025): • Has added 20 lbs. since arriving on campus. AS A FRESHMAN (2024): • One of the top freshman performers in school history, he started nine games. • Was called into action earlier than expected with injuries to Grayson McCall. • Ranked eighth in the ACC in total offense…