CFB Zeitgeist Score
71
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by completion % at the 91st percentile.
CJ Bailey
sonnet prose (cached)
3,105 PASS YDS · 25 PASS TD · 215 RUSH YDS
2026 Outlook
Returning to NC State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Quarterback · NC State
Returning around him
- 95% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
- 2 NC State players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -2 net (20 in / 22 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
NC State · Last season: 8-5 · Talent rank #45 · 2026 recruiting class #34
QB · NC STATE · ACC
CJ Bailey
- 2
- #11
- 6-6 | 210 lb
- Miami, FL
Heisman Heat
#1208
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
NC State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4-star | 0.8933 | No. 432 recruit | HighSchool | NC State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Volume King 1.3% Volume King 2,500+ passing yards, 1,200+ rushing yards, or 900+ receiving yards in a single season (position-appropriate threshold). Held by 1.3% of the 2025 pool. 3105 passing yards — clears the 2,500-QB volume bar.
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in passing yards (3105).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
NIL Valuation · On3
$1.88M
#25 nationally · Jun 2026
Whisper Rate
$2.00M
per-deal market estimate
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to NC State
Composite
0.8933
#432 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on CJ Bailey
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
54
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=13
- Rivals · n=2
- National · n=4
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about CJ Bailey
Only 2 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Combined WEPA per play (pass + rush)
+0.387
EPA
P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 280 touches
National rank #20 of 57
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 280 touches 66th
Why it matters
#20 of 57 P4 + Notre Dame QBs in combined passing + rushing weighted-EPA per play — +0.387 EPA on 461 touches.
Vs cohort
This player +0.387 (66th)
HIGH · n=461 cohort 57
- Also strong
- WEPA per dropback#22 / 58
- Total weighted-EPA passing#16 / 58
- Completion %#11 / 72
Signature Moment
Week 14 vs North Carolina — 65 ypc
Result W 42-19
The week the volume broke through — put up 65 yds vs North Carolina.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 13g
3,105Pass yards
25Pass TDs
9INT
Per game
238.8Pass yards
2Pass TDs
1INT
Final
3,105Pass yards
25Pass TDs
9INT
✓ Hit 3,000-yard season · finished with 3,105.
✓ Hit 25 passing TDs · finished with 25.
Why this is a two-channel quarterback case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The unusual part of CJ Bailey's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For NC State, he has 3,105 passing yards and 25 touchdown passes, but he also adds 215 rushing yards and 6 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-volume passer | Efficient | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
273 95th
ATT
397 94th
CMP%
68.8% 80th
Y/A
7.8 73rd
Passing Production
YDS
3,105 92nd
TD
25 96th
INT
9 12th
Rushing
CAR
89 84th
YDS
215 80th
YPC
2.4 45th
TD
6 88th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 24-17vs East Carolina | 24/34 | 318 | 1 | 1 | 9.4 | 78.5 | |
| Wk 2 | W 35-31vs Virginia | 16/23 | 200 | 1 | 0 | 8.7 | 90.0 | |
| Wk 3 | W 34-24@ Wake Forest | 23/32 | 201 | 3 | 0 | 6.3 | 80.5 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 4 | L 33-45@ Duke | 29/39 | 364 | 2 | 3 | 9.3 | 66.3 | Season-high 364 yds · 3 INTs — rough day |
| Wk 5 | L 21-23vs Virginia Tech | 26/34 | 240 | 2 | 0 | 7.1 | 63.7 | |
| Wk 6 | W 56-10vs Campbell | 20/23 | 337 | 4 | 0 | 14.7 | 94.4 | 4 TD passes |
| Wk 7 | L 7-36@ Notre Dame | 17/30 | 186 | 1 | 3 | 6.2 | 41.2 | 3 INTs — rough day |
| Wk 9 | L 34-53@ Pittsburgh | 24/40 | 225 | 3 | 0 | 5.6 | 52.7 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 10 | W 48-36vs Georgia Tech | 24/32 | 340 | 2 | 0 | 10.6 | 97.5 | Clean 2-TD game |
| Wk 12 | L 7-41@ Miami | 17/30 | 120 | 0 | 2 | 4.0 | 13.6 | |
| Wk 13 | W 21-11vs Florida State | 18/25 | 152 | 2 | 0 | 6.1 | 63.8 | |
| Wk 14 | W 42-19vs North Carolina | 21/30 | 201 | 2 | 0 | 6.7 | 89.5 | |
| Bowl | W 31-7vs Memphis | 14/25 | 221 | 2 | 0 | 8.8 | 91.5 | |
| Total | 273/397 | 3105 | 25 | 9 | 8.0 | 71.0 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025NC State8-5HC: Dave Doeren · Balanced
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | NC State | 273 | 397 | 68.8% | 3,105 | 7.8 | 25 | 9 | 150.7 | -- | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 273 | 397 | 68.8% | 3,105 | 7.8 | 25 | 9 | 150.7 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | NC State | 89 | 215 | 2.4 | 6 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 89 | 215 | 2.4 | 6 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 3,105 | #31/382 | 92nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 25 | #19/407 | 96th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 273 | #20/383 | 95th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 68.8% | #76/383 | 80th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 7.8 | #103/382 | 73rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 215 | #81/408 | 80th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.39 | #29/200 | 86th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 399 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 54.7% | #45/428 | 90th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 397 | #27/407 | 94th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 9 | #359/407 | 12th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 89 | #65/408 | 84th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 30 | #107/391 | 73rd pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 6 | #48/408 | 88th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 2.4 | #226/407 | 45th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 95.1% | #24/428 | 95th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 78.3% | #7/428 | 99th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 75.2% | #20/428 | 96th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 66.7% | #6/428 | 99th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 43.7% | #84/428 | 81st pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 38.7% | #113/428 | 74th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 14.5% | #109/428 | 75th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.37 | #18/140 | 88th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 62 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 2 | #163/258 | 37th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home8g | 251 | 2.0 | 9.0 | 0.1 |
| Road5g | 219 | 1.8 | 6.3 | 1.6 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins8g | 246 | 2.1 | 8.9 | 0.1 |
| Losses5g | 227 | 1.6 | 6.4 | 1.6 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-78g | 258 | 2.0 | 8.8 | 0.9 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 208 | 1.8 | 6.6 | 0.4 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
71Solid starter
Elite: completion % (90th). Strength: pass tds (88th). Concern: interceptions (21st).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds50%of completions
72 comp5.3 yds avg4 TD
Middle
10–19 yds32%of completions
47 comp13.1 yds avg4 TD
Deep
20+ yds18%of completions
26 comp31.5 yds avg5 TD
Overall 71.1% completion on 204 attempts · 26 deep completions averaging 31.5 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Elite: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.39High (p75–p90) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.37High (p75–p90) (n=72)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
CJ BaileyNC StateDemond Williams Jr.Washington· 86% simJoey AguilarTennessee· 86% simDante MooreOregon· 85% sim
Completion %
Pass TDs
Pass yards
Rush TDs
Yards / att
Rush yards
Fumbles lost
Interceptions
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Game Manager
Consistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jack Plummer’s 2023 season.
Jack Plummer
66%match
All-ACC
#2
TJ Finley
58%
#3
Kurtis Rourke
All-MACNFL Rd 7
58%
#4
Carson Beck
All-SECNFL Rd 3 · Pk 1
58%
#5
Drew Mestemaker
BurlsworthAll-AAC
57%
Matches Jack on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Height
Completion %
Differs from Jack on
Rush yards / carry (higher)
TD rate (higher)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Eli Peters’s path through Toledo.
Eli Peters
88%match
#2
Cutter Boley
79%
#3
Joey Labas
76%
#4
Ian Book
All-ACCNFL Rd 4
74%
#5
Emory Williams
74%
Matches Eli on
Completion %
Yards per attempt
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Nico Iamaleava's sophomore season at Tennessee (2024).
Nico Iamaleava
67%match
All-Big Ten
#2
Fernando Mendoza
Davey O'BrienHeismanManningNFL Rd 1 · Pk 1
59%
#3
Drew Mestemaker
BurlsworthAll-AAC
57%
#4
Tanner McKee
NFL Rd 6
56%
#5
Jake Bentley
54%
Matches Nico on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Differs from Nico on
Recruiting rating (lower)
INT rate (higher)
Rush usage (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dave Doeren
Pass share
49.7%
411 pass / 416 run
Plays / game
63.6
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.5%
307 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Dave Doeren
NC State
Played his entire career under Dave Doeren.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownMiami, FL
Height6'6"
Weight210 lb
Class2
PositionQB
Jersey11
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamNC State
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | NC State | QB2 | #1208 | #1298 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | ACC |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.