Duke at NC State
NC State (4‑4) hosts Duke (6‑2). The market has Duke favored by 4.5. NC State’s offense is at the 21st percentile on explosive plays; Duke’s defense is at the 92nd.
How they got here
Last three games
Duke · 6-2
Rated 67th in our preseason ratings, 41st now, up 26 spots.
2-1 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Virginia as a 2.5-point underdog.
Last three games
NC State · 4-4
Rated 44th in our preseason ratings, 66th now, down 22 spots.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 31-35 @ Vanderbilt No. 42 of 668 teams
lost by 4 as a 3-point underdog
Biggest mismatch: NC State’s explosive plays against Duke, 71 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
NC State’s explosive plays against Duke’s defense
NC State offense, 21st percentile · Duke defense, 92nd
Duke’s passing EPA against NC State’s defense
Duke offense, 82nd percentile · NC State defense, 13th
Duke’s EPA/play against NC State’s defense
Duke offense, 84th percentile · NC State defense, 30th
What’s at stake
Duke
- Duke is ranked #23, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- Duke is coming off a 45-point win.
NC State
- NC State needs 2 more wins in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 91% to get there with a win here, 56% with a loss.
- Dave Doeren is 0-4 all-time against Manny Diaz.
The series
Duke leads the series 44-37-5
86 meetings since 1924 · Duke has won the last 3
- 2025Duke 45-33
- 2024Duke 29-19
- 2023Duke 24-3
- 2020NC State 31-20
- 2013Duke 38-20
Each line is NC State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Duke
The chip · vs the national mediaFans hear the same backhand every fall — that Duke is a basketball school whose football is a curiosity, that the academic standard caps the ceiling. They point at the 2025 ACC trophy and ask the talking heads to say it again.
What this game touches
The decades of being the ACC's easy week. Before Diaz, Duke football spent most of the 2000s and 2010s as the conference's scheduled win — David Cutcliffe stole a Coastal title or two, but the program lived as the basketball school's polite second sport. The fear underneath the 2025 title: that a thin academic-first program can't keep this up once the league adjusts.
NC State
The chip · vs the national mediaFans are tired of being the forgotten school on Tobacco Road — the one nobody mentions when the cameras find Carolina blue and Duke's gym, even after producing more starting NFL quarterbacks than either of them.
What this game touches
The 2002 team that didn't break through. Philip Rivers' four-year run produced the most talented Wolfpack teams of the modern era and a string of bowl wins, but never an ACC title or a major-bowl breakthrough — the standing reminder that talent in Raleigh has rarely translated to a conference crown.
Best players
Duke
- Nate Sheppard (RB) · 972 rushing yards — Heisman odds: 93rd (+20000)
- Nick Morris Jr. (LB) · 45 tackles
- Walker Eget (QB) · 1,641 passing yards
NC State
- Raul Aguirre Jr. (LB) · 77 tackles
- CJ Bailey (QB) · 1,955 passing yards — Heisman odds: 57th (+25000)
- Keenan Jackson (WR) · 456 receiving yards
What to watch
Player to watch: Walker Eget (QB) — Duke’s leading passer (1,641 passing yards) takes on NC State’s pass defense (13th percentile allowed).
The total has moved up 2.0 points since opening (49.5 → 51.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
NC State fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (27th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
- Model · 60%
- Line · 36%
- NC State fans · 27th
- Duke fans · 1st
Duke favored by 4.5 · Total 51.5
Duke by 4.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Duke’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Carter-Finley Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 95, 3:30 pm Saturdays 88
Duke at NC State · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 12:30 pm ET · Carter-Finley Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Carter-Finley Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm 88, 7:30 pm 95.
- noon: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 88, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
NC State is worth +6.4 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 87th percentile.
75% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (40-13 home, 17-25 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.9 at home vs. away over 102 games — outside the ±5.2 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
The visitors travel about 18 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
NC State
- Wk 4Wvs App State41-31
- Wk 5Wvs Louisville31-28
- Wk 6Lvs Wake Forest14-38
- Wk 8Lat Stanford28-31
- Wk 9Wvs California31-10
Duke
- Wk 4Wvs William & Mary62-7
- Wk 6Lat Georgia Tech25-28
- Wk 7Lvs North Carolina20-24
- Wk 8Wat Virginia19-16
- Wk 9Wvs Boston College47-2
Power rating by week
Duke is rated 3.3 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward NC State.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: +5.5 → +4.5 · Total: 49.5 → 51.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.