Duke routs William & Mary 62-7

Team pages: William & Mary · Duke

William & Mary2-37
Duke4-062Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, N.C. · Crowd 22,003ACC Extra

Duke routed William & Mary 62-7.

We had Duke favored. It won.

Next: William & Mary lost to Holy Cross 41-14, Sat Oct 3

Next: Duke lost to Georgia Tech 28-25, Sat Oct 10

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Duke a 97% chance, and the closing betting line (Duke was a 43.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.

Duke led by 7 after the first quarter and by 31 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+55+55
Blocked field goalQ1 6:41
FinalDuke 62-7 William & MaryDuke wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4DukeWon62-7ScoresBlocked field goal
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4DukeWon62-7ScoresBlocked field goal
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4DukeLowest 0%Lost7-62ScoresBlocked field goal
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4DukeLowest 0%Lost7-62ScoresBlocked field goal

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Duke’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Duke -43.5), at 99% for Duke (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Duke’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 10:42Eget 24-yd TD pass to MooreDuke goes ahead 7-0Q1, 10:42 · Duke 7, William & Mary 07-0score after the play7-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q1, 6:03Sheppard 19-yd TD runDuke leads 14-0Q1, 6:03 · Duke 14, William & Mary 014-0score after the play14-0score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q1, 2:58Watkins 6-yd TD pass to Reutercuts it to 14-7Q1, 2:58 · Duke 14, William & Mary 714-7score after the play14-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 10:42Mahan 29-yd TD pass to SimmonsDuke leads 24-7Q2, 10:42 · Duke 24, William & Mary 724-7score after the play24-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q2, 7:58Mahan 29-yd TD pass to SolomonDuke leads 31-7Q2, 7:58 · Duke 31, William & Mary 731-7score after the play31-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q2, 0:26Eget 28-yd TD pass to RichardsonDuke leads 38-7Q2, 0:26 · Duke 38, William & Mary 738-7score after the play38-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  7. Q3, 13:31Watkins sacked for a 5-yd lossQ3, 13:31 · Duke 38, William & Mary 738-7score after the play38-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  8. Q3, 3:40Mahan 27-yd TD pass to KeefeDuke leads 48-7Q3, 3:40 · Duke 48, William & Mary 748-7score after the play48-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  9. Q4, 11:58Tanelus 4-yd TD runDuke leads 55-7Q4, 11:58 · Duke 55, William & Mary 755-7score after the play55-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  10. Q4, 9:55Carroll sacked for a 6-yd lossQ4, 9:55 · Duke 55, William & Mary 755-7score after the play55-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football
  11. Q4, 5:25Givers 28-yd TD runDuke leads 62-7Q4, 5:25 · Duke 62, William & Mary 762-7score after the play62-7score after the playWatch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

Duke scored on 10 of its 12 drives; William & Mary on 1 of its 13.

Duke’s drives are teal, William & Mary’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Duke: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWilliam & Mary: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntDuke: Turned over on downs, from 79 yards out to 74DownsWilliam & Mary: Missed field goal, from 38 yards out to 47Missed FGDuke: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0TouchdownWilliam & Mary: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownDuke: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 14Field goalQ2William & Mary: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75PuntDuke: Touchdown, from 29 yards out to 0TouchdownWilliam & Mary: Punt, from 75 yards out to 80PuntDuke: Touchdown, from 45 yards out to 0TouchdownWilliam & Mary: Turned over on downs, from 60 yards out to 5DownsDuke: Touchdown, from 95 yards out to 0TouchdownWilliam & Mary: End of half, from 75 yards out to 74End of halfQ3William & Mary: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77PuntDuke: Field goal, from 50 yards out to 22Field goalWilliam & Mary: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntDuke: Touchdown, from 71 yards out to 0TouchdownWilliam & Mary: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntDuke: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4William & Mary: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66PuntDuke: Touchdown, from 72 yards out to 0TouchdownWilliam & Mary: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntDuke: Punt, from 70 yards out to 63PuntWilliam & Mary: End of game, from 94 yards out to 84End of game

Never in doubt.

Box score

Duke 62, William & Mary 7

Duke covered −43.5 by 11.5. The total, 69, went over 61.5.

William & MaryDukeTotal yardsWilliam & Mary 170Duke 638170638Passing yardsWilliam & Mary 153Duke 352153352Rushing yardsWilliam & Mary 17Duke 28617286First downsWilliam & Mary 7Duke 28728TurnoversWilliam & Mary 0Duke 000Time of possessionWilliam & Mary 27:40Duke 32:2027:4032:20
Team totalsWilliam & MaryDuke
Total yards170638
Passing12 of 21, 153 yds24 of 34, 352 yds
Rushing29 for 17 yds37 for 286 yds
First downs728
Third down3 of 138 of 13
Fourth down0 of 11 of 2
Turnovers00
Penalties7 for 55 yds6 for 60 yds
Time of possession27:4032:20

William & Mary leaders

  • Passing Winston Watkins 10 of 17, 137 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Josh Miller 14 for 25 yds; Brayden Smalls 5 for 17 yds
  • Receiving Khylil Johnson 3 for 92 yds; Sean McElwain 2 for 19 yds

Duke leaders

  • Passing Walker Eget 16 of 22, 182 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Nate Sheppard 9 for 116 yds, 1 TD; Jayvian Tanelus 9 for 69 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Jonah Burton 5 for 63 yds; Jaivon Solomon 3 for 55 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

77° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Wallace Wade Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Duke favoredWilliam & Mary favored100%Win chanceDukeRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Duke favoredWilliam & Mary favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:54 left3:33 p.m.
William & Mary 0, Duke 0 · Duke 99% to win
no rain · 77°
Campbell run for a 1-yd loss
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Durham - Duke North Heliport airport, 0.8 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

William & Mary · 2-2

Rated 183rd in our preseason ratings, 206th now.

2-2 in its last 4, including a 3-point win over Villanova as a 12.5-point underdog.

L 27-52 vs Fordham #240 of 668

lost by 25 as a 15.5-point favorite

William & Mary lost 27-52 vs Fordham. Chance to win started at 89%, low under 1%, high 93%.

L 20-44 @ Lehigh #133 of 668

lost by 24 as a 13.5-point underdog

William & Mary lost 20-44 at Lehigh. Chance to win started at 15%, low under 1%, high 15%.

W 22-15 vs Delaware State #187 of 668

won by 7 as a 9.5-point favorite

William & Mary won 22-15 vs Delaware State. Chance to win started at 81%, low 80%, high better than 99%.

W 35-32 @ Villanova #146 of 668

won by 3 as a 12.5-point underdog

William & Mary won 35-32 at Villanova. Chance to win started at 13%, low 2%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Duke · 3-0

Rated 67th in our preseason ratings, 59th now.

Three straight wins, including a 4-point win over Illinois as a 6-point underdog.

W 35-7 vs Stanford #106 of 668

won by 28 as a 9.5-point favorite

Duke won 35-7 vs Stanford. Chance to win started at 85%, low 72%, high better than 99%.

W 31-27 @ Illinois #69 of 668

won by 4 as a 6-point underdog

Duke won 31-27 at Illinois. Chance to win started at 26%, low 11%, high 80%.

W 17-3 vs Tulane #74 of 668

won by 14 as a 9.5-point favorite

Duke won 17-3 vs Tulane. Chance to win started at 76%, low 76%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Duke

Wk 1: W 17-3 vs Tulane▲14TulaneWk 2: W 31-27 at Illinois▲4IllinoisWk 3: W 35-7 vs Stanford▲28Stanford
  • Wk 1Wvs Tulane17-3
  • Wk 2Wat Illinois31-27
  • Wk 3Wvs Stanford35-7

William & Mary

Wk 1: W 35-32 at Villanova▲3VillanovaWk 1: W 22-15 vs Delaware State▲7Delaware St.Wk 2: L 20-44 at Lehigh▼24LehighWk 3: L 27-52 vs Fordham▼25Fordham
  • Wk 1Wat Villanova35-32
  • Wk 1Wvs Delaware State22-15
  • Wk 2Lat Lehigh20-44
  • Wk 3Lvs Fordham27-52

Power rating by week

Duke is rated 10.1 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

3-4-10Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3DukeWilliam & Mary

The series

William & Mary leads the series 5-1

6 meetings since 1922 · Duke won the last meeting

Duke wonWilliam & Mary won1922: William & Mary by 61923: William & Mary by 211924: William & Mary by 181925: William & Mary by 411951: William & Mary by 11955: Duke by 4019221955
  • 1955Duke 47-7
  • 1951William & Mary 14-13
  • 1925William & Mary 41-0
  • 1924William & Mary 21-3
  • 1923William & Mary 21-0

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Duke’s chances here.

50-50Model 97% · Line 100%William & MaryDuke

Duke favored by 43.5 · Total 61.5

How games like this usually go

Duke by 43.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The total rose 1 point.

opened 60.5now 61.5

Total: 60.5 → 61.5

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 79° at kickoff.

William & Mary at Duke · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham

  • 79°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 87weather score, Mixed
  • Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's eight kickoff times. At Wallace Wade Stadium that day, a 6 pm or 7 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 87 at 3:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

  • noon: 93, Comfortable
  • 12:45 pm: 90, Comfortable
  • 2 pm: 86, Mixed
  • 3:30 pm: 87, Mixed (this game)
  • 4 pm: 89, Mixed
  • 5 pm: 96, Comfortable
  • 6 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 7 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Duke has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.3 points (±4.3), home against road — 3rd percentile of FBS.

53% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (24-21 home, 19-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -3.3 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 152 miles to get here.

Where next