Georgia Tech 28-25 Duke (Oct 10, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Duke · Georgia Tech

Duke4-125

Georgia Tech2-328Final

Sat, Oct 10 · Bobby Dodd Stadium, Atlanta, Ga. · Crowd 46,432

Georgia Tech beat No. 23 Duke 28-25.

We had Duke favored. Georgia Tech won.

Next: Duke lost to North Carolina 24-20, Sat Oct 17

Next: Georgia Tech lost to Virginia Tech 34-24, Sat Oct 17

Top comment in the game thread

That might be the worst penalty call in the history of the universe 😳

Q2 9:08 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Maddox 1-yd TD run, Georgia Tech goes ahead 28-25 (Q4, 0:54). Georgia Tech went from 48% to 77% to win. Fans right then: “If you aren't fully expecting Duke to score here you aren't a real Georgia Tech fan” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Georgia Tech a 28% chance, and the closing betting line (Georgia Tech was a 4.5-point underdog) put it at 36%.

Down to 32% in the fourth quarter, Georgia Tech came back to win.

Up to 68% in the fourth quarter, then Duke lost it.

FinalGeorgia Tech 28-25 DukeGeorgia Tech wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.08 in of rain

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 2:40Sheppard 5-yd TD run, Duke goes ahead 25-21Georgia Tech 54% → 32% (−22)
2Q4 0:54Maddox 1-yd TD run, Georgia Tech goes ahead 28-25Georgia Tech 48% → 77% (+29)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 2:40Sheppard 5-yd TD run, Duke goes ahead 25-21Duke 46% → 68% (+22)
2Q4 0:54Maddox 1-yd TD run, Georgia Tech goes ahead 28-25Duke 52% → 23% (−29)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 9:08Officials rule unnecessary roughness on Mendoza pass, sparking outrage from both sidesQuoted at the top of the page.
Q3 4:38Eget leads Duke to a touchdown as Georgia Tech fans lament their third-down defenseeasy 2 pts im sick of this defense i really truly amr/CFB game threadWatching this defense makes me sickr/CFB game thread
Q4 4:33Duke fans fear Georgia Tech will blow another late lead as Duke scores to take the leadIf you told me before the game we would have 2:40 and all timeouts needing a TD to win it, I'd have been pretty happy given how ass we actually are. Win or lose - sorry to you…r/CFB game threadCan we just skip to 3rd down so they can score nowr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:01Georgia Tech fans panic as Duke drives with 54 seconds leftIf you aren't fully expecting Duke to score here you aren't a real Georgia Tech fanr/CFB game threadtech loves losingr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:08Duke fans rip coach for wasting timeout before missed field goalDuke isn’t nearly as good as its record suggests. Georgia Tech isn’t as bad as their record suggests. Both teams are still pretty damn bad, with Duke being slightly worse.r/CFB game threadThe most predictable miss in football historyr/CFB game thread

Georgia Tech’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Duke -4.5), at 45% for Georgia Tech (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Georgia Tech or Duke flair (615 and 343); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

The blue strip under the chart is the weather at the airport. 0.00 to 0.08 in of rain at two airports, heaviest in the first quarter. Measured at Atlanta/fulton Co. airport, 7.3 miles away. Full conditions below.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Georgia Tech’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Georgia Tech scored on 4 of its 10 drives; Duke on 4 of its 10.

Georgia Tech’s drives are teal, Duke’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Duke’s side

Duke’s best moment: Sheppard 5-yd TD run, Duke goes ahead 25-21 (Q4 2:40). It lifted Duke’s win chance by 22 points.

How Duke fans took it: “The most predictable miss in football history” r/CFB game thread

“There is too much time left for me to feel safe”

A Georgia Tech fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The loudest stretch was the finish.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was steady.

Too close to call on 65% of plays. The winner fell to 13%.

What it cost

Duke’s chance to make the playoff fell from 2% to 1%.

Make the playoff

Duke · lost2% → ▼1%

Georgia Tech · won0% → 0%

Win the conference

Duke · lost2% → ▼1%

Georgia Tech · won0% → 0%

Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Georgia Tech 28, Duke 25

Georgia Tech covered +4.5 by 7.5. The total, 53, went over 45.5.

Team totals	Duke	Georgia Tech
Total yards	418	383
Passing	26 of 42, 259 yds	23 of 30, 218 yds
Rushing	35 for 159 yds	27 for 165 yds
First downs	28	21
Third down	10 of 17	4 of 10
Fourth down	1 of 1	1 of 2
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	6 for 71 yds	11 for 110 yds
Time of possession	35:26	24:34

Duke leaders

Passing Walker Eget 26 of 41, 259 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Nate Sheppard 27 for 99 yds, 2 TD; CJ Campbell 6 for 46 yds
Receiving Nate Sheppard 7 for 91 yds; Jayden Moore 1 for 42 yds

Georgia Tech leaders

Passing Alberto Mendoza 23 of 30, 218 yds, 1 TD
Rushing Trelain Maddox 10 for 81 yds, 3 TD; Justice Haynes 14 for 69 yds
Receiving Jordan Allen 10 for 99 yds, 1 TD; Isaiah Fuhrmann 2 for 27 yds

Rain for part of the game

68° at kickoff · 0.00 to 0.08 in of rain at two airports · wind 9 mph from the east-northeast, mostly across the field, gusts to 21

October game-day temperatures at Bobby Dodd Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 0:54 left6:47 p.m.

Duke 25, Georgia Tech 28 · Georgia Tech 77% to win

no rain · wind 10 mph from the east-northeast, mostly across the field · 66°

Maddox 1-yd TD run, Georgia Tech goes ahead 28-25

Measured at Atlanta/fulton Co. airport, 7.3 miles away, and Atlanta/dekalb airport, 8.8 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Duke · 4-0

Rated 67th in our preseason ratings, 54th now, up 13 spots.

4 straight wins, including a 4-point win over Illinois as a 6-point underdog.

W 62-7 vs William & Mary #221 of 668

won by 55 as a 43.5-point favorite

W 35-7 vs Stanford #106 of 668

won by 28 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 31-27 @ Illinois #69 of 668

won by 4 as a 6-point underdog

W 17-3 vs Tulane #74 of 668

won by 14 as a 9.5-point favorite

Last 4 games

Georgia Tech · 1-3

Rated 74th in our preseason ratings, 100th now, down 26 spots.

1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 27-34 @ Stanford #115 of 668

lost by 7 as a 3-point favorite

W 44-11 vs Mercer #169 of 668

won by 33 as a 38.5-point favorite

L 24-45 vs TennesseeTop 25 #30 of 668

lost by 21 as a 12.5-point underdog

L 13-14 vs Colorado #156 of 668

lost by 1 as a 6.5-point favorite

Week by week

Georgia Tech

Wk 1Lvs Colorado13-14
Wk 2Lvs Tennessee24-45
Wk 3Wvs Mercer44-11
Wk 4Lat Stanford27-34

Duke

Wk 1Wvs Tulane17-3
Wk 2Wat Illinois31-27
Wk 3Wvs Stanford35-7
Wk 4Wvs William & Mary62-7

Power rating by week

Duke is rated 4.3 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Duke’s EPA/play against Georgia Tech, 71 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Duke’s EPA/play against Georgia Tech’s defense
Duke offense, 87th percentile · Georgia Tech defense, 16th
Duke’s passing EPA against Georgia Tech’s defense
Duke offense, 80th percentile · Georgia Tech defense, 16th
Duke’s explosive plays against Georgia Tech’s defense
Duke offense, 80th percentile · Georgia Tech defense, 31st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

DukeGeorgia Tech

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Georgia Tech leads the series 56-35-1

92 meetings since 1933 · Georgia Tech has won the last 5

2025Georgia Tech 27-18
2024Georgia Tech 24-14
2022Georgia Tech 23-20
2021Georgia Tech 31-27
2020Georgia Tech 56-33

Each line is Georgia Tech’s chance to win through that meeting. Georgia Tech is 5-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Georgia Tech fans are in a better mood than Duke fans (35th vs 10th among FBS fanbases), even with Duke favored.

Duke favored by 4.5 · Total 45.5

How games like this usually go

Duke by 4.5, on the usual path until 0:08 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2.5 points toward Georgia Tech.

The total fell 3 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Georgia Tech has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.1 points (±4.1), home against road — 3rd percentile of FBS.

45% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (20-24 home, 17-26 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -7.7 at home vs. away over 94 games — outside the ±6.1 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 345 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Georgia Tech 23, Duke 20Oct 8, 2022

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Georgia Tech15th0-1
Duke7th1-0

Full ACC standings

Georgia Tech upsets No. 23 Duke 28-25