CFB Rankings 2026 — CFB Zeitgeist

Through week 1, our model and the major sportsbooks already diverge on 3 teams. The biggest gap: North Carolina — we have them #111, Vegas has them #47.

Divergence watch 3 biggest model vs. Vegas gaps

We believe · Vegas is not yet

North Carolina ACC

#111 Our model

#47 Vegas

#1#25

We have them #111. Vegas has them #47 (+40000 to win it all) — 64 spots behind us.

Vegas is in · we're skeptical

UTSA American Athletic

#33 Our model

#95 Vegas

#1#25

7.5 projected wins. Our model has them #33 — 62 spots lower.

We believe · Vegas is not yet

Oklahoma State Big 12

#98 Our model

#44 Vegas

#1#25

We have them #98. Vegas has them #44 (+40000 to win it all) — 54 spots behind us.

Polls & our model Live

Bettors Live

Résumé After wk 1

Belief Live

Level: FBS Show: All Top 25 Gaps only

Team

Our model

Human polls

Bettors

Gap track (rank 1 → 25)

Team	CFB Zeitgeist▲	AP	Coaches	Committee	Win total	us vegas
1 Notre Dame FBS Independents	117.3	NR	5	NR	11.5 W +650	#1#25
2 Ohio State Big Ten	216.3	NR	1	NR	9.5 W +600	#1#25
3 Miami ACC	314.1	NR	7	NR	10.5 W +1100	#1#25
4 Indiana Big Ten	414.1	NR	6	NR	10.5 W +800	#1#25
5 Georgia SEC	514.0	NR	3	NR	9.5 W +850	#1#25
6 Oregon Big Ten	613.8	NR	2	NR	10.5 W +800	#1#25
7 Texas Tech Big 12	712.9	NR	12	NR	10.5 W +2000	#1#25
8 Texas SEC	812.4	NR	4	NR	9.5 W +700	#1#25
9 Ole Miss SEC	911.5	NR	10	NR	7.5 W +2500	#1#25
10 Texas A&M SEC	1011.4	NR	8	NR	8.5 W +1800	#1#25
11 Alabama SEC	1110.3	NR	11	NR	8.5 W +2200	#1#25
12 Penn State Big Ten	129.8	NR	17	NR	8.5 W +6000	#1#25
― On the bubble
13 Clemson ACC	139.7	NR	23	NR	7.5 W +10000	#1#25
14 SMU ACC	149.5	NR	20	NR	8.5 W +12500	#1#25
15 Iowa Big Ten	159.1	NR	22	NR	7.5 W +12000	#1#25
16 LSU SEC	168.8	NR	13	NR	8.5 W +1800	#1#25
17 Tennessee SEC	177.2	NR	18	NR	7.5 W +5000	#1#25
18 USC Big Ten	187.1	NR	14	NR	8.5 W +3500	#1#25
19 BYU Big 12	197.1	NR	15	NR	8.5 W +9000	#1#25
20 Oklahoma SEC	206.9	NR	9	NR	7.5 W +2800	#1#25
21 Washington Big Ten	216.7	NR	19	NR	7.5 W +10000	#1#25
22 Missouri SEC	226.7	NR	25	NR	6.5 W +10000	#1#25
23 Utah Big 12	236.6	NR	21	NR	8.5 W +10000	#1#25
24 South Florida American Athletic	246.5	NR	NR	NR	8.5 W +60000	#1#25
25 Louisville ACC	256.5	NR	NR	NR	8.5 W +12500	#1#25

CFB Zeitgeist — composite model: power rating + schedule strength + cross-division context. AP / Coaches — official human polls; preseason editions release Aug 11. Committee — CFP selection committee rankings begin Oct 28 (week 10). Bettors — consensus win total + CFP futures across major sportsbooks.

Blue = our model rank Gold = Vegas rank (by win total) Orange shading = high human poll rank (1 – 5)

Coaches Poll — others receiving votes: Louisville 153; Florida 147; TCU 63; Illinois 62; Arizona 50; South Carolina 50; Virginia 40; Vanderbilt 37; Auburn 29; Georgia Tech 26; Boise State 24; Oklahoma State 22; UNLV 17; Florida State 13; NC State 13; Nebraska 12; Virginia Tech 12; Memphis 9; Arizona State 8; Duke 6; James Madison 6; New Mexico 4; Pittsburgh 4; Navy 3; Western Michigan 3; San Diego State 2; California 1; Hawai'i 1; Jacksonville State 1; Kansas State 1

Biggest gap — Vegas above us

North Carolina

+64 spots

Biggest gap — us above Vegas

UTSA

+62 spots

Books sampled

3 – 5

Consensus median · de-vigged title %

Win totals — what Vegas expects

Consensus line across major sportsbooks. The over/under on season wins before a snap is played.

Team

Projected wins

Line

Title %

Ohio State

9.5

14.3%

Notre Dame

11.5

13.3%

Texas

9.5

12.5%

Oregon

10.5

11.1%

Indiana

10.5

11.1%

Georgia

9.5

10.5%

Miami

10.5

8.3%

Texas A&M

8.5

5.3%

LSU

8.5

5.3%

Texas Tech

10.5

4.8%

Alabama

8.5

4.3%

Ole Miss

7.5

3.8%

Oklahoma

7.5

3.4%

Michigan

8.5

2.8%

USC

8.5

2.8%

Tennessee

7.5

2.0%

Florida

7.5

1.8%

Penn State

8.5

1.6%

Auburn

6.5

1.2%

BYU

8.5

1.1%

Utah

8.5

1.0%

Washington

7.5

1.0%

Clemson

7.5

1.0%

Missouri

6.5

1.0%

South Carolina

6.5

1.0%

Source: consensus median across major sportsbooks · de-vigged CFP championship futures

Model rank vs. Vegas rank

Gold dot = where Vegas ranks the team by win total. Blue dot = CFB Zeitgeist rank.

Vegas rank (win total)

CFB Zeitgeist rank

Notre Dame

V#2 · #1

Ohio State

V#1 · #2

Miami

V#7 · #3

Indiana

V#5 · #4

Georgia

V#6 · #5

Oregon

V#4 · #6

Texas Tech

V#10 · #7

Texas

V#3 · #8

#1#6#11#16#21

Source: CFB Zeitgeist model · consensus median across major sportsbooks

Résumé rankings

What each team has earned on the field — wins over ranked opponents, margin in key games, schedule strength. Starts populating after week 1 (Aug 29).

Available Aug 30

Fan heat index — how each fanbase is running right now. Drawn from Reddit discussion volume, sentiment, and tone across the past seven days. Offseason readings: treat direction (▲▼) as more reliable than absolute rank.

Rising this week

West Florida

▲18.7

30 pts · Cooked

Georgetown

▲15.5

52 pts · Uneasy

Clemson

▲5.0

59 pts · Uneasy

Falling this week

Sacred Heart

▼10.0

65 pts · Cooking

Tulsa

▼3.0

67 pts · Cooking

Florida State

▼2.6

51 pts · Uneasy

#	Team	Belief score	This week	Zone	vs. Market
1	Puget Sound	100	—	so_back	—
2	Maine	100	—	so_back	—
3	East Texas A&M	94	—	so_back	—
4	Austin Peay	87	—	so_back	—
5	Wofford	84	—	so_back	—
6	Illinois State	82	—	so_back	—
7	Weber State	81	—	so_back	—
8	East Carolina	78	—	Cooking	—
9	Houston	76	▲0.4	Cooking	—
10	Florida A&M	75	—	Cooking	—
11	Northern Colorado	75	—	Cooking	—
12	Western Illinois	75	—	Cooking	—
13	Troy	75	—	Cooking	—
14	Alabama A&M	73	—	Cooking	—
15	Western Carolina	72	—	Cooking	—
16	Delaware	72	—	Cooking	—
17	UL Monroe	72	—	Cooking	—
18	Louisiana	71	—	Cooking	—
19	South Dakota State	70	—	Cooking	—
20	Maryland	70	▲1.9	Cooking	—
21	Eastern Washington	70	—	Cooking	—
22	Western Kentucky	68	—	Cooking	—
23	Utah State	68	—	Cooking	—
24	Towson	68	—	Cooking	—
25	Tulsa	67	▼3.0	Cooking	—
26	New Mexico State	67	—	Cooking	—
27	App State	67	—	Cooking	—
28	Sam Houston	67	—	Cooking	—
29	Wyoming	66	▲0.9	Cooking	—
30	Central Michigan	66	—	Cooking	—
31	Colorado State	65	—	Cooking	—
32	Arizona	65	—	Cooking	—
33	Clark Atlanta	65	—	Cooking	—
34	Sacred Heart	65	▼10.0	Cooking	—
35	Missouri State	64	▼2.0	Cooking	—
36	UTEP	64	▼1.8	Cooking	—
37	Sacramento State	64	▼2.2	Cooking	—
38	Louisiana Tech	64	—	Cooking	—
39	Ohio	64	▲0.7	Cooking	—
40	Eastern Michigan	63	—	Cooking	—
41	Lehigh	63	—	Cooking	—
42	Washington	62	—	Cooking	—
43	Stanford	62	▲0.5	Cooking	—
44	Wake Forest	62	—	Cooking	—
45	Kentucky	62	—	Cooking	—
46	Villanova	62	▲3.5	Uneasy	—
47	Southern Miss	62	—	Cooking	—
48	Tulane	62	▼1.8	Cooking	—
49	Florida Atlantic	62	▲2.1	Uneasy	—
50	Western Michigan	62	▼0.2	Cooking	—
51	Boston College	62	▲0.1	Cooking	—
52	Kent State	62	—	Cooking	—
53	San José State	61	▼0.7	Cooking	—
54	Buffalo	61	▲0.2	Cooking	—
55	UCF	61	▼0.4	Cooking	—
56	Nevada	61	▲2.1	Uneasy	—
57	Memphis	61	▲0.6	Cooking	—
58	Illinois	61	▼0.3	Cooking	—
59	Prairie View A&M	61	—	Cooking	—
60	Purdue	60	▼0.6	Cooking	—
61	Georgia State	60	—	Cooking	—
62	Northern Illinois	60	▲0.4	Cooking	—
63	Furman	60	—	Cooking	—
64	South Florida	60	▼1.6	Cooking	—
65	Tarleton State	60	—	Uneasy	—
66	Coastal Carolina	60	▲3.8	Uneasy	—
67	South Alabama	60	▼1.7	Cooking	—
68	BYU	60	▲0.8	Uneasy	—
69	Massachusetts	59	—	Uneasy	—
70	Clemson	59	▲5.0	Uneasy	—
71	Texas Southern	59	—	Uneasy	—
72	SMU	59	▲0.8	Uneasy	—
73	Virginia Tech	59	▼0.2	Uneasy	—
74	Miami	59	▼0.5	Uneasy	Fans +50
75	Rice	59	▲1.1	Uneasy	—
76	Temple	59	—	Uneasy	—
77	Georgia Southern	59	—	Uneasy	—
78	Minnesota	59	▼0.8	Uneasy	—
79	Cincinnati	58	▼0.4	Uneasy	—
80	Miami (OH)	58	▼1.7	Cooking	—
81	Hawai'i	58	—	Uneasy	—
82	Texas State	58	▼1.8	Cooking	—
83	Virginia	58	—	Uneasy	—
84	Mississippi State	58	▼0.3	Uneasy	—
85	Iowa State	57	▲0.1	Uneasy	—
86	Kansas	57	▲2.0	Uneasy	—
87	North Texas	57	▲0.7	Uneasy	—
88	Montana State	57	—	Uneasy	—
89	Kennesaw State	57	▲3.0	Uneasy	—
90	Marshall	57	▲0.8	Uneasy	—
91	Baylor	57	▼0.1	Uneasy	—
92	UConn	57	▼0.3	Uneasy	—
93	Fresno State	57	—	Uneasy	—
94	Florida	56	▲1.7	Uneasy	—
95	Oregon	56	▼0.1	Uneasy	Fans +10
96	San Diego State	56	▼2.0	Uneasy	—
97	Syracuse	56	▲0.2	Uneasy	—
98	UCLA	56	—	Uneasy	—
99	Ball State	56	▼0.3	Uneasy	—
100	Louisville	56	▼1.1	Uneasy	—
101	Old Dominion	56	—	Uneasy	—
102	Northwestern	56	▲0.4	Uneasy	—
103	North Dakota	56	—	Uneasy	—
104	UAB	55	▼0.2	Uneasy	—
105	Oregon State	55	▼0.4	Uneasy	—
106	Arkansas	55	▼0.6	Uneasy	—
107	Duke	55	▼0.8	Uneasy	—
108	Fordham	55	—	Uneasy	—
109	UT Martin	55	—	Uneasy	—
110	NC State	54	▼0.9	Uneasy	—
111	Colorado	54	▼0.3	Uneasy	—
112	Nebraska	54	▼1.0	Uneasy	—
113	Alabama	54	▼0.4	Uneasy	Fans +60
114	UC Davis	54	—	Uneasy	—
115	Oklahoma State	54	▲0.4	Uneasy	—
116	Washington State	54	▲0.2	Uneasy	—
117	Texas A&M	54	▲0.2	Uneasy	Fans +40
118	Charlotte	54	—	Uneasy	—
119	Florida International	54	▲0.1	Uneasy	—
120	Liberty	54	▲1.7	Uneasy	—
121	Middle Tennessee	54	▲2.0	Uneasy	—
122	Georgia Tech	54	▼0.1	Uneasy	—
123	Bowling Green	54	—	Uneasy	—
124	UTSA	54	▲0.1	Uneasy	—
125	Michigan State	54	▲1.7	Uneasy	—
126	Utah	54	▼0.5	Uneasy	—
127	Rutgers	54	—	Uneasy	—
128	California	54	▼0.2	Uneasy	—
129	UNLV	54	▼0.1	Uneasy	—
130	Indiana	53	▼1.7	Uneasy	—
131	Wisconsin	53	▼0.2	Uneasy	—
132	TCU	53	▼1.0	Uneasy	—
133	Toledo	53	—	Uneasy	—
134	Missouri	53	▼0.9	Uneasy	—
135	Kansas State	53	—	Uneasy	—
136	West Virginia	53	▲0.3	Uneasy	—
137	North Carolina	53	▼0.7	Uneasy	—
138	Iowa	53	▼1.4	Uneasy	—
139	New Mexico	52	—	Uneasy	—
140	Michigan	52	▼0.4	Uneasy	Fans +50
141	Texas Tech	52	▲4.2	Uneasy	—
142	Penn State	52	▼0.1	Uneasy	—
143	Georgetown	52	▲15.5	Uneasy	—
144	Montana	52	—	Uneasy	—
145	Pittsburgh	52	—	Uneasy	—
146	Auburn	52	—	Uneasy	—
147	Arizona State	52	—	Uneasy	—
148	Texas	51	▼1.9	Uneasy	Mkt +10
149	South Carolina	51	▲0.6	Uneasy	—
150	LSU	51	▼0.1	Uneasy	—
151	Georgia	51	▲0.4	Uneasy	Mkt +40
152	Florida State	51	▼2.6	Uneasy	—
153	Northern Arizona	51	—	Uneasy	—
154	USC	51	▲0.3	Uneasy	—
155	Notre Dame	50	▼0.4	Uneasy	Mkt +70
156	Boise State	50	▼0.7	Uneasy	—
157	Jacksonville State	50	▼1.5	Uneasy	—
158	Oklahoma	50	▼0.1	Uneasy	—
159	Tusculum	50	—	Uneasy	—
160	Arkansas State	50	—	Uneasy	—
161	Tennessee	50	—	Uneasy	—
162	Vanderbilt	49	▼0.5	Uneasy	—
163	James Madison	49	▼1.3	Uneasy	—
164	Ole Miss	49	▼0.2	Uneasy	—
165	North Dakota State	49	—	Uneasy	—
166	Army	48	—	Uneasy	—
167	Ohio State	48	▼0.2	Uneasy	Mkt +90
168	North Carolina A&T	47	▲3.4	Uneasy	—
169	Dayton	46	—	Uneasy	—
170	Lafayette	44	—	Uneasy	—
171	Air Force	44	—	Uneasy	—
172	Navy	44	▼1.1	Uneasy	—
173	Southern Illinois	43	—	Uneasy	—
174	William & Mary	42	▼1.6	Uneasy	—
175	Akron	42	—	Uneasy	—
176	Northern Iowa	42	—	Uneasy	—
177	Drake	41	—	Uneasy	—
178	Youngstown State	39	—	Cooked	—
179	West Georgia	37	—	Cooked	—
180	Abilene Christian	36	—	Cooked	—
181	Nicholls	35	—	Cooked	—
182	South Dakota	32	—	Cooked	—
183	West Florida	30	▲18.7	Cooked	—
184	North Alabama	30	—	Cooked	—
185	Mercer	28	—	Cooked	—
186	Chattanooga	25	▼1.4	Cooked	—
187	Duquesne	22	—	Cooked	—
188	UAlbany	11	—	Ice cold	—
189	VMI	8	—	Ice cold	—
190	Southern Utah	8	—	Ice cold	—
191	Tennessee State	7	—	Ice cold	—
192	Richmond	5	—	Ice cold	—
193	Idaho	5	—	Ice cold	—

~ = low-signal (150 of 193 programs — offseason readings are directional, not definitive). vs. Market shows fan belief percentile minus Vegas percentile where available.

College football rankings