Cal Poly4-8
Hope-Doping·Offseason

A Central Coast program with a real Pro Football Hall of Fame pedigree and a Division II national title in its past, trying to remember what a winning season feels like after nine years without one.

Standard GapA program that once produced three straight national defensive players o…

There isn't a rival Cal Poly measures itself against out of resentment so much as a quiet frustration with itself -- a program with a Hall of Fame coaching alumnus and a real (if small-division) natio…

offseason · quiet
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Roster Reload - Cal Poly

2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06
Returning ProductionNAContinuity signal unavailable
Portal Additions11Primary repair: TE
Portal Losses11Primary pressure: OT
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting ReloadNARecruiting class signal unavailable
Sin 2 - RL Miller3.40out 3 - Jeremiah Bernard3.50Downgrade
OTin 0out 2 - Trevor Newkirk3.49Starter Risk
TEin 2 - Luke Leighton3.49out 0Need Filled
QBin 1 - Dermaricus Davis4.28out 1 - Ty Dieffenbach3.50Even
IOLin 1 - Davit Boyajyan3.40out 1 - Racin Delgatty3.70Even
RBin 1 - Jaden Green3.50out 1 - Jaedon Matthews3.49Even

Approaching

23 days

until kickoff · vs Idaho · Sat Aug 29 · 02:00 UTC

The experience

Cal Poly football is a Central Coast program with real history — a 1980 NCAA Division II national championship, three straight Buck Buchanan Award winners (2004-2006, tied with Montana for the most in FCS history), and alumni in both the Pro Football Hall of Fame (John Madden, Bobby Beathard) — now trying to find its footing again. The Mustangs haven't posted a winning season since 2016 and enter 2026 under their third head coach since 2020, Tim Skipper, hired December 2025.

2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

Cal Poly Faces Balanced Portal Churn and High Volatility in 2026 Season

With 11 transfers in and 11 out, Cal Poly's roster is in flux, and the team projects to finish between 2-10 and 9-4 depending on performance.

  • Roster reloadCal Poly has 11 transfers in and 11 out, resulting in a balanced portal churn with a reload score of "moderate" and a volatility score of "below-average".
  • ScheduleThe team's base scenario projects a 5-7 record with no postseason, while the ceiling scenario forecasts a 9-4 record and a bowl game.
Data as of 2026-08-01 · Validated against program evidence

Musty stands quietly at midfield, waiting for something to cheer.

Transfer portal snapshot

-4.7 net portal points
(raw ledger: -6.8 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
OT
-6.8
starter risk
TE
+4.5
need not filled
CB
-3.5
low confidence
EDGE
-3.5
low confidence
S
-3.5
DL
+3.5
low confidence
LS
+1.0
low confidence
WR
+1.0
low confidence
QB
+0.8
IOL
-0.3
RB
+0.0
LB
+0.0

Cal Poly · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor2-10No postseason.
base5-7No postseason.
ceiling9-4Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

Recent Form · last 10 games

Cold

One of five. The film room is busy this week.

Streak W1Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 3-7
The forecast

Opens Aug 29

vs Idaho · at home

Community pulse

No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.

CFB Zeitgeist · team-pages v1.0 “Ride High”
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