Cal Poly upsets Idaho State 25-24

Team pages: Cal Poly · Idaho State

Cal Poly4-325
Idaho State4-224Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Holt Arena, Pocatello, Idaho · Crowd 9,483ESPN+

Cal Poly beat Idaho State 25-24 as a 14.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 4%.

Winners have been down to 4% or less in about 1 of every 35 games since 2018.

We had Idaho State favored. Cal Poly won.

Next: Cal Poly lost to Northern Colorado 28-18, Sat Oct 17

Next: Idaho State lost to Weber State 27-20, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Grigsby 5-yd TD pass to Paiau, Cal Poly goes ahead 25-24 (Q4, 0:40). Cal Poly went from 23% to 60% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Cal Poly an 18% chance, and the closing betting line (Cal Poly was a 14.5-point underdog) put it at 12%.

FinalCal Poly 25-24 Idaho StateCal Poly wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q414% at halfCal PolyIdaho StateLowest 4%Won25-24Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q414% at halfCal PolyIdaho StateLowest 4%Won25-24Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q486% at halfIdaho StateCal PolyHigh 96%Lost24-25Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q486% at halfIdaho StateCal PolyHigh 96%Lost24-25Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 0:40Grigsby 5-yd TD pass to Paiau, Cal Poly goes ahead 25-24Cal Poly 23% → 60% (+37)
  2. 2Q4 0:26InterceptionCooke intercepted by Simon at the CPU50Cal Poly 68% → 88% (+20)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 0:40Grigsby 5-yd TD pass to Paiau, Cal Poly goes ahead 25-24Idaho State 77% → 40% (−37)
  2. 2Q4 0:26InterceptionCooke intercepted by Simon at the CPU50Idaho State 32% → 12% (−20)
Cal Poly’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Idaho State -14.5), at 10% for Cal Poly (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Cal Poly scored on 4 of its 12 drives; Idaho State on 6 of its 12.

Cal Poly’s drives are teal, Idaho State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Cal Poly: Punt, from 76 yards out to 95PuntIdaho State: Field goal, from 34 yards out to 10Field goalCal Poly: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 43PuntCal Poly: Punt, from 92 yards out to 83PuntQ2Idaho State: Interception, from 60 yards out to 58InterceptionCal Poly: Punt, from 90 yards out to 68PuntIdaho State: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownCal Poly: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 6Field goalIdaho State: Field goal, from 72 yards out to 28Field goalQ3Idaho State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 41PuntCal Poly: Safety, from 98 yards out to 100SafetyIdaho State: Field goal, from 69 yards out to 33Field goalCal Poly: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho State: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 26Field goalQ4Cal Poly: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 55DownsIdaho State: Field goal, from 45 yards out to 13Field goalCal Poly: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 33DownsIdaho State: Punt, from 67 yards out to 48PuntCal Poly: Punt, from 88 yards out to 90PuntIdaho State: Punt, from 68 yards out to 67PuntCal Poly: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 68InterceptionCal Poly: End of game, from 50 yards out to 54End of game

From Idaho State’s side

Idaho State’s best moment: 52-yd punt (Q2 11:06). It lifted Idaho State’s win chance by 13 points.

The winner fell to 4%.

Box score

Cal Poly 25, Idaho State 24

Cal Poly covered +14.5 by 15.5. The total, 49, stayed under 63.5.

Cal Poly leaders

  • Passing Anthony Grigsby Jr. 17 of 31, 198 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Anthony Grigsby Jr. 11 for 55 yds, 2 TD; Jaden Green 18 for 49 yds
  • Receiving Tayvion McCoy 5 for 78 yds; Jaden Green 2 for 30 yds

Idaho State leaders

  • Passing Jordan Cooke 22 of 36, 238 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Tytan Mason 14 for 72 yds; Carson Sudbury 6 for 26 yds
  • Receiving Tommy Poe 5 for 108 yds; Chedon James 7 for 47 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Cal Poly · 3-3

Rated 199th in our preseason ratings, 214th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Eastern Washington as a 3.5-point underdog.

L 34-42 vs Weber State #225 of 668

lost by 8 as a 6-point favorite

Cal Poly lost 34-42 vs Weber State. Chance to win started at 74%, low under 1%, high 92%.

W 31-27 @ Eastern Washington #187 of 668

won by 4 as a 3.5-point underdog

Cal Poly won 31-27 at Eastern Washington. Chance to win started at 33%, low 15%, high better than 99%.

L 35-38 vs San Diego #177 of 668

lost by 3 as a 17.5-point favorite

Cal Poly lost 35-38 vs San Diego. Chance to win started at 93%, low under 1%, high 93%.

Last three games

Idaho State · 4-1

Rated 157th in our preseason ratings, 135th now, up 22 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 31-38 vs Northern Arizona #148 of 668

lost by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite

Idaho State lost 31-38 vs Northern Arizona. Chance to win started at 76%, low under 1%, high 80%.

W 28-24 @ Southern Utah #163 of 668

won by 4 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 59-17 vs San Diego #170 of 668

won by 42 as a 22.5-point favorite

Idaho State won 59-17 vs San Diego. Chance to win started at 94%, low 93%, high better than 99%.

W 29-17 @ Utah State #56 of 668

won by 12 as a 15.5-point underdog

Idaho State won 29-17 at Utah State. Chance to win started at 12%, low 6%, high 98%.

W 38-10 vs VMI #266 of 668

won by 28 as a 34.5-point favorite

Idaho State won 38-10 vs VMI. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Idaho State

Wk 1: W 38-10 vs VMI▲28VMIWk 1: W 29-17 at Utah State▲12Utah St.Wk 2: W 59-17 vs San Diego▲42San DiegoWk 4: W 28-24 at Southern Utah▲4S. UtahWk 5: L 31-38 vs Northern Arizona▼7N. Arizo…
  • Wk 1Wvs VMI38-10
  • Wk 1Wat Utah State29-17
  • Wk 2Wvs San Diego59-17
  • Wk 4Wat Southern Utah28-24
  • Wk 5Lvs Northern Arizona31-38

Cal Poly

Wk 1: W 24-17 vs Central Washington▲7C. Washi…Wk 2: L 20-30 at San José State▼10S. José…Wk 3: L 35-38 vs San Diego▼3San DiegoWk 4: W 31-27 at Eastern Washington▲4E. Washi…Wk 5: L 34-42 vs Weber State▼8Weber St.
  • Wk 1Wvs Central Washington24-17
  • Wk 2Lat San José State20-30
  • Wk 3Lvs San Diego35-38
  • Wk 4Wat Eastern Washington31-27
  • Wk 5Lvs Weber State34-42

Power rating by week

Idaho State is rated 4.8 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-3-7-10Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5Idaho StateCal Poly

The series

Cal Poly leads the series 7-6

13 meetings since 2003 · Idaho State has won the last 3

Idaho State wonCal Poly won2003: Idaho State by 72004: Cal Poly by 152005: Cal Poly by 252007: Cal Poly by 202008: Cal Poly by 392014: Idaho State by 22015: Cal Poly by 322017: Idaho State by 42018: Cal Poly by 232021: Cal Poly by 32022: Idaho State by 92024: Idaho State by 32025: Idaho State by 1020032025
  • 2025Idaho State 27-17
  • 2024Idaho State 41-38
  • 2022Idaho State 40-31
  • 2021Cal Poly 32-29
  • 2018Cal Poly 37-14

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Idaho State’s chances here.

50-50Model 82% · Line 88%Cal PolyIdaho State

Idaho State favored by 14.5 · Total 63.5

How games like this usually go

Idaho State by 14.5, on the usual path until 3:21 left in the fourth

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Idaho State is worth +12.2 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.

50% at home, 7% on the road against FBS opponents (1-1 home, 1-14 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.5 at home vs. away over 55 games — inside the ±7.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. 4,561 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 684 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.