Idaho State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Idaho State · low confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Idaho State1963 Big Sky Championship
An early conference title that presaged the Kragthorpe era success
Idaho State6-6Hope-Doping·Offseason
Idaho State is the only FCS national champion in the modern Big Sky — the 1981 team that won it all under Dave Kragthorpe — and carries the weight of proving that singular moment was not a fluke.
Title DroughtSince 1981 · 44 yrs
Fans here believe college football has written Idaho State out of the historical narrative; the 1981 championship is a footnote, not a landmark. The Bengals carry the resentment of a program whose gre…
low signal
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · vs VMI · Sat Aug 29 · 22:00 UTC
The experience
Idaho State is the only FCS national champion in the modern Big Sky — the 1981 team that won it all under Dave Kragthorpe — and carries the weight of proving that singular moment was not a fluke.
The Bengals hold the line.
Idaho State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 4-8
Base 6-6
Ceiling 9-3
floor4-8Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base6-6Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling9-3Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Warming
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Streak W4Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs VMI · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Idaho State
—
The Bengals hold the line.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Bengals."
— Idaho State fanbase · recurring line
0 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Idaho State · low confidence
Growing (58)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 6-6 (50% win rate)58
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#21 / 138 · 86th pct33.0
Pts allowed/game#80 / 138 · 43rd pct27.2
All 28 stats
Other
First down pass rate#11 / 215 · 95th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#5 / 11 · 64th pct0.60.1/gm
Red zone pass rate#94 / 154 · 40th pct#43 / 70 · 40th pct#5 / 5 · 20th pct0.30.0/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#103 / 143 · 29th pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct0.20.0/gm
H1 epa per play#119 / 162 · 27th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct0.10.0/gm
H2 epa per play#125 / 142 · 13th pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct0.10.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#134 / 167 · 20th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct0.30.0/gm
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team100.8/gm#136 / 167 · 19th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Opp131.1/gm#23 / 166 · 87th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct
Red zone score %
Team70.0%70.0%#129 / 167 · 23rd pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#7 / 10 · 40th pct
Opp69.2%69.2%#21 / 166 · 88th pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Points / drive
Team2.20.2/gm#60 / 167 · 65th pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
Opp2.80.2/gm#143 / 166 · 14th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct
Yards / drive
Team48.74.1/gm#12 / 167 · 93rd pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Opp45.33.8/gm#142 / 166 · 15th pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct
Plays / drive
Team7.80.6/gm#3 / 167 · 99th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Opp6.40.5/gm#56 / 166 · 67th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team3.8%3.8%#3 / 167 · 99th pct#3 / 70 · 97th pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct
Opp22.2%22.2%#11 / 166 · 94th pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct#10 / 10 · 10th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#137 / 145 · 6th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct-10.6%-10.6%
Standard-downs success
Team54.0%54.0%#12 / 154 · 93rd pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct
Opp50.0%50.0%#107 / 172 · 38th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct
Passing-downs success
Team25.9%25.9%#128 / 153 · 17th pct#66 / 70 · 7th pct
Opp28.9%28.9%#50 / 149 · 67th pct#28 / 70 · 61st pct
Line yards / carry
Team2.42.4#137 / 143 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp3.33.3#125 / 155 · 20th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct
Stuff rate
Team26.0%26.0%#137 / 143 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp13.2%13.2%#141 / 155 · 10th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct
Power success allowed#124 / 141 · 13th pct#62 / 70 · 13th pct80.0%80.0%
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Idaho State · 2025 schedule & results6-6Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 52% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 23 | #235 | #87 | +30.5 | @UNLV | L 31–38 145 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 1 | Aug 31 | #235 | #155 | +4.5 | @Southern Utah | L 24–46 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #207 | #91 | +17.5 | @New Mexico | L 22–32 129 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #211 | #406 | — | Lincoln (CA) | W 90–0 | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #200 | #226 | -3.5 | @Northern Colorado | W 26–18 | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| 6 | Oct 5 | #185 | #115 | +13.5 | Montana | L 38–42 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #182 | #71 | +22.5 | @Montana State | L 14–48 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #196 | #172 | +3 | Northern Arizona | L 18–31 | 2-6 | 1-4 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #209 | #100 | +11.5 | @UC Davis | W 38–36 | 3-6 | 2-4 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #195 | #196 | -7.5 | Cal Poly | W 27–17 | 4-6 | 3-4 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #181 | #219 | -13.5 | Weber State | W 31–3 | 5-6 | 4-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #159 | #161 | +2.5 | @Idaho | W 37–16 | 6-6 | 5-4 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @Idaho | W 37–16 | — | — | — | +0.139 | 45.0% | 100.4% | |
| Nov 15 | Weber State | W 31–3 | — | — | — | +0.379 | 51.4% | 141.4% | Blowout win |
| Nov 8 | Cal Poly | W 27–17 | — | — | — | +0.284 | 59.2% | 86.0% | |
| Nov 1 | @UC Davis | W 38–36 | — | — | — | +0.137 | 51.4% | 138.7% | One-score win |
| Oct 25 | Northern Arizona | L 18–31 | — | — | — | +0.055 | 47.6% | 113.6% | |
| Oct 11 | @Montana State | L 14–48 | — | — | — | +0.148 | 35.4% | 158.1% | Most explosive |
| Oct 5 | Montana | L 38–42 | — | — | — | +0.268 | 46.8% | 127.3% | One-score loss |
| Sep 27 | @Northern Colorado | W 26–18 | — | — | — | +0.133 | 46.0% | 107.7% | One-score win |
| Sep 20 | Lincoln (CA) | W 90–0 | — | — | — | +0.945 | 72.3% | 144.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | @New Mexico | L 22–32 | 386 | 1 | 30:31 | -0.022 | 43.3% | 87.6% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 31 | @Southern Utah | L 24–46 | — | — | — | +0.005 | 33.3% | 155.5% | |
| Aug 23 | @UNLV | L 31–38 | 555 | 4 | 28:48 | +0.161 | 47.6% | 136.6% | One-score loss |
| Season average (12 games) | 470 | 2.5 | +0.219 | 48.3% | 124.8% | ||||
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Idaho State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
93rd percentile success on standard downs, 14th on passing downs — a 79-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Idaho State by half
1st-half offense ranks 27th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 13th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Idaho State's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.22; 75th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 4: 0.27 raw vs. 0.10 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Idaho State · 2018-present
Elite
47% home win rate vs 18% on the road. margin runs +21.6 better at home. Holt Arena seats 12,000, averaging 60% full (7,161 attendance, 9 games reported).
Home17-19Away8-36
FCS Program Prestige · Idaho State
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
85-228-2
since 1919 · 74 seasons · .269 win rate
HOME
62-73-1
AWAY
21-146-1
NEUTRAL
2-9
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Big Sky Standing · 2025
5th in the Big Sky
Idaho State sits 5th of 13 in the Big Sky at 5-4. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State | 9-0 |
| 2 | UC Davis | 7-2 |
| 3 | Montana | 6-2 |
| 4 | Northern Arizona | 6-4 |
| 5 | Idaho State | 5-4 |
| 6 | Eastern Washington | 4-3 |
| 7 | Idaho | 3-5 |
| 8 | Southern Utah | 2-2 |
| 9 | Northern Colorado | 2-5 |
| 10 | Weber State | 2-5 |
| 11 | Cal Poly | 1-6 |
| 12 | Portland State | 1-6 |
| 13 | Utah Tech | 0-4 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1981 National Championship
Idaho State defeats Eastern Kentucky 34–23 for the FCS national title, the program's only national championship
Moment of the Year · Idaho State · 2025
Moment of the Year · Idaho State · 2025Won 90-0 vs Lincoln (CA)
Week 4 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
r/cfb moments
104
[Postgame Thread] BYU Defeats Idaho State 59-14
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
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