Montana State at Idaho State
Montana State (8‑1) at Idaho State (6‑3) — no line posted yet, but the model favors Montana State (82%).
How they got here
Last three games
Montana State · 8-1
Rated 84th in our preseason ratings, 69th now, up 15 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Last three games
Idaho State · 6-3
Rated 157th in our preseason ratings, 138th now, up 19 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 34-27 @ Utah Tech No. 247 of 668 teams
won by 7 as a 16.5-point favorite
W 38-8 vs Portland State No. 247 of 668 teams
won by 30 as a 14-point favorite
L 20-27 @ Weber State No. 185 of 668 teams
lost by 7 as a 4.5-point favorite
L 31-38 vs Northern Arizona No. 148 of 668 teams
lost by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 28-24 @ Southern Utah No. 163 of 668 teams
won by 4 as a 9.5-point favorite
W 59-17 vs San Diego No. 170 of 668 teams
won by 42 as a 22.5-point favorite
W 38-10 vs VMI No. 266 of 668 teams
won by 28 as a 34.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Montana State
- Montana State is 1 game back in Big Sky with 2 left to make it up.
- Montana State is coming off a 54-point win.
Idaho State
- A win would be one of Idaho State’s biggest of the season — a 69-spot gap in the power ratings.
The series
Montana State leads the series 19-2-2
23 meetings since 1923 · Montana State has won the last 4
- 2025Montana State 48-14
- 2024Montana State 37-17
- 2022Montana State 37-6
- 2021Montana State 27-9
- 2018Idaho State 24-17
Home field
Idaho State is worth +12.2 points (±4.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
50% at home, 7% on the road against FBS opponents (1-1 home, 1-14 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.4 at home vs. away over 57 games — inside the ±7.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. 4,561 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 204 miles to get here.
Week by week
Idaho State
- Wk 5Lvs Northern Arizona31-38
- Wk 6Lvs Cal Poly24-25
- Wk 7Lat Weber State20-27
- Wk 8Wvs Portland State38-8
- Wk 9Wat Utah Tech34-27
Montana State
- Wk 4Wvs Northern Arizona28-14
- Wk 5Lat Idaho34-35
- Wk 7Wat Eastern Washington56-20
- Wk 8Wvs Weber State38-33
- Wk 9Wvs Cal Poly61-7
Power rating by week
Montana State is rated 6.9 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Idaho State7th3-3
- Montana State2nd5-1