Montana State routs Cal Poly 61-7

Team pages: Cal Poly · Montana State

Cal Poly4-67
Montana State8-161Final
Sat, Oct 31 · Bobcat Stadium, Bozeman, Mont. · Crowd 21,897ESPN+

Montana State routed Cal Poly 61-7.

We had Montana State favored. It won.

Next: Cal Poly vs Northern Arizona, Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 PM ET

Next: Montana State at Idaho State, Sat Nov 7 · 6:00 PM ET

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Montana State a 98% chance, and the closing betting line (Montana State was a 27.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.

Montana State led by 27 after the first quarter and by 41 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+54+54
FinalMontana State 61-7 Cal PolyMontana State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won61-7Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won61-7Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost7-61Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost7-61Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Montana State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Montana State -27.5), at 99% for Montana State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Montana State scored on 8 of its 10 drives; Cal Poly on 2 of its 11.

Montana State’s drives are teal, Cal Poly’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Cal Poly: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownCal Poly: Interception, from 75 yards out to 80InterceptionMontana State: Touchdown, from 30 yards out to 0TouchdownCal Poly: Punt, from 75 yards out to 62PuntMontana State: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownCal Poly: Punt, from 80 yards out to 64PuntMontana State: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownCal Poly: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 66DownsQ2Montana State: Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0TouchdownCal Poly: Interception, from 75 yards out to 73InterceptionMontana State: Touchdown, from 20 yards out to 0TouchdownCal Poly: Punt, from 75 yards out to 58PuntMontana State: Touchdown, from 85 yards out to 0TouchdownCal Poly: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMontana State: End of half, from 74 yards out to 69End of halfQ3Cal Poly: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 39DownsMontana State: Touchdown, from 61 yards out to 0TouchdownCal Poly: Interception, from 75 yards out to 44InterceptionMontana State: Touchdown, from 63 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Cal Poly: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 11DownsMontana State: End of game, from 89 yards out to 16End of game

Box score

Montana State 61, Cal Poly 7

Montana State covered −27.5 by 26.5. The total, 68, went over 62.5.

Cal Poly leaders

  • Passing Bo Kelly 14 of 26, 128 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Misa Paiau 16 for 70 yds; Trey Wilson 6 for 41 yds
  • Receiving Tayvion McCoy 7 for 78 yds, 1 TD; Brooks Wheatley 3 for 37 yds

Montana State leaders

  • Passing Justin Lamson 15 of 19, 177 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Jared White 4 for 69 yds; Adam Jones 13 for 61 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Carter Dahlke 6 for 103 yds, 1 TD; Jordan Reed 2 for 54 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Cal Poly · 4-5

Rated 199th in our preseason ratings, 228th now.

1-2 in its last three, including a 1-point win over Idaho State as a 14.5-point underdog.

L 26-43 vs Utah Tech No. 250 of 668 teams

lost by 17 as a 15.5-point favorite

Cal Poly lost 26-43 vs Utah Tech. Chance to win started at 90%, low under 1%, high 96%.

L 18-28 @ Northern Colorado No. 227 of 668 teams

lost by 10 as a 3-point favorite

Cal Poly lost 18-28 at Northern Colorado. Chance to win started at 51%, low under 1%, high 80%.

W 25-24 @ Idaho State No. 150 of 668 teams

won by 1 as a 14.5-point underdog

Cal Poly won 25-24 at Idaho State. Chance to win started at 10%, low 4%, high 92%.

Last three games

Montana State · 7-1

Rated 84th in our preseason ratings, 73rd now, up 11 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 38-33 vs Weber State No. 181 of 668 teams

won by 5 as a 25.5-point favorite

Montana State won 38-33 vs Weber State. Chance to win started at 96%, low 61%, high better than 99%.

W 56-20 @ Eastern Washington No. 211 of 668 teams

won by 36 as a 20.5-point favorite

Montana State won 56-20 at Eastern Washington. Chance to win started at 88%, low 79%, high better than 99%.

L 34-35 @ Idaho No. 170 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 14.5-point favorite

Montana State lost 34-35 at Idaho. Chance to win started at 82%, low under 1%, high 97%.

Week by week

Montana State

Wk 3: W 35-30 vs Central Connecticut▲5C. Conne…Wk 4: W 28-14 vs Northern Arizona▲14N. Arizo…Wk 5: L 34-35 at Idaho▼1IdahoWk 7: W 56-20 at Eastern Washington▲36E. Washi…Wk 8: W 38-33 vs Weber State▲5Weber St.
  • Wk 3Wvs Central Connecticut35-30
  • Wk 4Wvs Northern Arizona28-14
  • Wk 5Lat Idaho34-35
  • Wk 7Wat Eastern Washington56-20
  • Wk 8Wvs Weber State38-33

Cal Poly

Wk 4: W 31-27 at Eastern Washington▲4E. Washi…Wk 5: L 34-42 vs Weber State▼8Weber St.Wk 6: W 25-24 at Idaho State▲1Idaho St.Wk 7: L 18-28 at Northern Colorado▼10N. Color…Wk 8: L 26-43 vs Utah Tech▼17Utah Tech
  • Wk 4Wat Eastern Washington31-27
  • Wk 5Lvs Weber State34-42
  • Wk 6Wat Idaho State25-24
  • Wk 7Lat Northern Colorado18-28
  • Wk 8Lvs Utah Tech26-43

Power rating by week

Montana State is rated 11.8 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

3-5-12Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8Montana StateCal Poly

The series

Montana State leads the series 7-4

11 meetings since 2003 · Montana State has won the last 7

Montana State wonCal Poly won2003: Cal Poly by 32004: Cal Poly by 132005: Cal Poly by 282014: Cal Poly by 82015: Montana State by 172018: Montana State by 72019: Montana State by 62021: Montana State by 382022: Montana State by 442023: Montana State by 402025: Montana State by 1720032025
  • 2025Montana State 34-17
  • 2023Montana State 59-19
  • 2022Montana State 72-28
  • 2021Montana State 45-7
  • 2019Montana State 34-28

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Montana State’s chances here.

50-50Model 98% · Line 99%Cal PolyMontana State

Montana State favored by 27.5 · Total 62.5

How games like this usually go

Montana State by 27.5: the game against the usual path

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 430 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The total fell 2 points.

opened 64.5now 62.5

Total: 64.5 → 62.5

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Montana State is worth +10.3 points (±15.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.

33% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (1-2 home, 4-5 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.9 at home vs. away over 62 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

4,946 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 875 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.