Montana State beats Northern Arizona 28-14

Team pages: Northern Arizona · Montana State

Northern Arizona3-214
Montana State5-028Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Bobcat Stadium, Bozeman, Mont. · Crowd 21,857ESPN2

Montana State beat Northern Arizona 28-14.

We had Montana State favored. It won.

Next: Northern Arizona beat Idaho State 38-31, Sat Oct 3

Next: Montana State lost to Idaho 35-34, Fri Oct 2

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Montana State an 88% chance, and the closing betting line (Montana State was a 20.5-point favorite) put it at 95%.

Favored the whole way: Montana State never fell below 81%.

Northern Arizona never had better than an 18% chance.

FinalMontana State 28-14 Northern ArizonaMontana State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q487% at halfMontana StateWon28-14Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q487% at halfMontana StateWon28-14Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q413% at halfMontana StateLost14-28Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q413% at halfMontana StateLost14-28Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Montana State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Montana State -20.5), at 94% for Montana State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Montana State scored on 4 of its 12 drives; Northern Arizona on 2 of its 11.

Montana State’s drives are teal, Northern Arizona’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Northern Arizona: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntMontana State: Fumble, from 81 yards out to 18FumbleNorthern Arizona: Punt, from 82 yards out to 78PuntMontana State: Touchdown, from 63 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Arizona: Turned over on downs, from 82 yards out to 4DownsMontana State: Punt, from 96 yards out to 92PuntQ2Northern Arizona: Touchdown, from 50 yards out to 0TouchdownMontana State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 38InterceptionNorthern Arizona: Punt, from 63 yards out to 62PuntMontana State: Touchdown, from 86 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Arizona: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownMontana State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntNorthern Arizona: Punt, from 75 yards out to 56PuntMontana State: End of half, from 94 yards out to 95End of halfQ3Montana State: Punt, from 88 yards out to 81PuntNorthern Arizona: Fumble, from 73 yards out to 14FumbleMontana State: Touchdown, from 86 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Arizona: Turned over on downs, from 64 yards out to 5DownsQ4Montana State: Turned over on downs, from 95 yards out to 55DownsNorthern Arizona: Turned over on downs, from 45 yards out to 5DownsMontana State: Touchdown, from 95 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Arizona: Turned over on downs, from 85 yards out to 91DownsMontana State: End of game, from 9 yards out to 10End of game

Box score

Montana State 28, Northern Arizona 14

Northern Arizona covered +20.5 by 6.5. The total, 42, stayed under 57.5.

Northern Arizona leaders

  • Passing Ty Pennington 26 of 38, 239 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Ty Pennington 11 for 72 yds; Quran Gossett 11 for 40 yds
  • Receiving Deuce Zimmerman 4 for 61 yds; Myseth Currie 6 for 41 yds, 1 TD

Montana State leaders

  • Passing Patrick Duchien 16 of 20, 204 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Colson Coon 18 for 199 yds; Patrick Duchien 9 for 77 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Carter Dahlke 7 for 117 yds, 1 TD; Dane Steel 3 for 34 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Northern Arizona · 3-1

Rated 152nd in our preseason ratings, 158th now.

3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 35-23 @ Utah Tech #239 of 668

won by 12 as a 16.5-point favorite

Northern Arizona won 35-23 at Utah Tech. Chance to win started at 82%, low 81%, high better than 99%.

W 38-28 vs Incarnate Word #144 of 668

won by 10 as a 4.5-point favorite

Northern Arizona won 38-28 vs Incarnate Word. Chance to win started at 71%, low 44%, high better than 99%.

L 7-35 @ ArizonaTop 25 #28 of 668

lost by 28 as a 33.5-point underdog

Northern Arizona lost 7-35 at Arizona. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 2%.

W 34-27 vs Eastern Washington #186 of 668

won by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

Northern Arizona won 34-27 vs Eastern Washington. Chance to win started at 77%, low 9%, high 98%.

Last 4 games

Montana State · 4-0

Rated 84th in our preseason ratings, 78th now.

4 straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 35-30 vs Central Connecticut #190 of 668

won by 5 as a 41.5-point favorite

Montana State won 35-30 vs Central Connecticut. Chance to win started at 99%, low 76%, high better than 99%.

W 20-7 @ Nevada #176 of 668

won by 13 as a 4.5-point favorite

Montana State won 20-7 at Nevada. Chance to win started at 63%, low 62%, high better than 99%.

W 51-24 vs Butler #222 of 668

won by 27 as a 45.5-point favorite

Montana State won 51-24 vs Butler. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

W 54-0 @ Utah Tech #224 of 668

won by 54 as a 32.5-point favorite

Montana State won 54-0 at Utah Tech. Chance to win started at 96%, low 95%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Montana State

Wk 1: W 54-0 at Utah Tech▲54Utah TechWk 1: W 51-24 vs Butler▲27ButlerWk 2: W 20-7 at Nevada▲13NevadaWk 3: W 35-30 vs Central Connecticut▲5C. Connecti…
  • Wk 1Wat Utah Tech54-0
  • Wk 1Wvs Butler51-24
  • Wk 2Wat Nevada20-7
  • Wk 3Wvs Central Connecticut35-30

Northern Arizona

Wk 1: W 34-27 vs Eastern Washington▲7E. Washingt…Wk 1: L 7-35 at Arizona▼28ArizonaWk 2: W 38-28 vs Incarnate Word▲10Incarnate W…Wk 3: W 35-23 at Utah Tech▲12Utah Tech
  • Wk 1Wvs Eastern Washington34-27
  • Wk 1Lat Arizona7-35
  • Wk 2Wvs Incarnate Word38-28
  • Wk 3Wat Utah Tech35-23

Power rating by week

Montana State is rated 6.1 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

1-4-8Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3Montana StateNorthern Arizona

The series

Montana State leads the series 10-6

16 meetings since 2004 · Montana State has won the last 4

Montana State wonNorthern Arizona won2004: Montana State by 462005: Montana State by 72006: Montana State by 72007: Northern Arizona by 152008: Montana State by 22009: Northern Arizona by 132010: Northern Arizona by 272011: Montana State by 172013: Montana State by 292015: Northern Arizona by 82016: Northern Arizona by 62017: Northern Arizona by 12019: Montana State by 182022: Montana State by 32023: Montana State by 242025: Montana State by 2420042025
  • 2025Montana State 34-10
  • 2023Montana State 45-21
  • 2022Montana State 41-38
  • 2019Montana State 49-31
  • 2017Northern Arizona 37-36

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Montana State’s chances here.

50-50Model 88% · Line 95%Northern ArizonaMontana State

Montana State favored by 20.5 · Total 57.5

How games like this usually go

Montana State by 20.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Montana State.

opened −19.5now −20.5

The total rose 1 point.

opened 56.5now 57.5

Spread: −19.5 → −20.5 · Total: 56.5 → 57.5

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Montana State is worth +10.3 points (±15.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.

33% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (1-2 home, 4-5 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +5.0 at home vs. away over 60 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 4,946 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 725 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.