Idaho upsets Montana State 35-34

Team pages: Montana State · Idaho

Montana State5-134
Idaho1-435Final
Fri, Oct 2 · Kibbie Dome, Moscow, Idaho · Crowd 9,231ESPN

Idaho beat Montana State 35-34 as a 14.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 3%.

Winners have been down to 3% or less in about 1 of every 55 games since 2018.

Next: Montana State beat Eastern Washington 56-20, Sat Oct 17

Next: Idaho lost to Weber State 38-27, Sat Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Wood 25-yd TD pass to Jezioro, two-point try good, Idaho goes ahead 35-34 (Q4, 0:00). Idaho went from 9% to 100% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Idaho an 11% chance, and the closing betting line (Idaho was a 14.5-point underdog) put it at 12%.

FinalIdaho 35-34 Montana StateIdaho wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q414% at halfIdahoMontana StateWon35-3412+16+91Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q414% at halfIdahoWon35-3412Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q486% at halfMontana StateIdahoLost34-3512−16Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q486% at halfIdahoLost34-3512Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 10:57Wood 75-yd TD pass to Jezioro, Idaho goes ahead 7-3Idaho 13% → 29% (+16)
  2. 2Q4 0:00Wood 25-yd TD pass to Jezioro, two-point try good, Idaho goes ahead 35-34Idaho 9% → 100% (+91)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 10:57Wood 75-yd TD pass to Jezioro, Idaho goes ahead 7-3Montana State 87% → 71% (−16)
  2. 2Q4 0:00Wood 25-yd TD pass to Jezioro, two-point try good, Idaho goes ahead 35-34Montana State 91% → 0% (−91)
Idaho’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Montana State -14.5), at 18% for Idaho (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Idaho scored on 6 of its 11 drives; Montana State on 6 of its 11.

Idaho’s drives are teal, Montana State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Montana State: Field goal, from 66 yards out to 4Field goalIdaho: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMontana State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 67PuntIdaho: Punt, from 93 yards out to 86PuntMontana State: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 27Field goalQ2Montana State: Punt, from 81 yards out to 90PuntIdaho: Field goal, from 32 yards out to 4Field goalMontana State: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMontana State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntMontana State: Missed field goal, from 55 yards out to 30Missed FGQ3Idaho: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntMontana State: Field goal, from 82 yards out to 9Field goalIdaho: Interception, from 75 yards out to 37InterceptionMontana State: Touchdown, from 38 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Idaho: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMontana State: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 34Missed FGIdaho: Punt, from 66 yards out to 71PuntMontana State: Punt, from 53 yards out to 38PuntIdaho: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0Touchdown

7 lead changes. The winner was given almost no chance at its low point.

Box score

Idaho 35, Montana State 34

Idaho covered +14.5 by 15.5. The total, 69, went over 56.5.

Montana State leaders

  • Passing Patrick Duchien 23 of 32, 249 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Patrick Duchien 14 for 92 yds, 1 TD; Colson Coon 15 for 56 yds
  • Receiving Carter Dahlke 10 for 126 yds, 1 TD; Dane Steel 5 for 70 yds, 1 TD

Idaho leaders

  • Passing Joshua Wood 19 of 25, 315 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Damonte Bias 7 for 46 yds, 1 TD; Joshua Wood 15 for 41 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Ryan Jezioro 6 for 147 yds, 2 TD; Tony Harste 5 for 66 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Montana State · 5-0

Rated 84th in our preseason ratings, 82nd now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 28-14 vs Northern Arizona #153 of 668

won by 14 as a 20.5-point favorite

Montana State won 28-14 vs Northern Arizona. Chance to win started at 94%, low 82%, high better than 99%.

W 35-30 vs Central Connecticut #190 of 668

won by 5 as a 41.5-point favorite

Montana State won 35-30 vs Central Connecticut. Chance to win started at 99%, low 76%, high better than 99%.

W 20-7 @ Nevada #176 of 668

won by 13 as a 4.5-point favorite

Montana State won 20-7 at Nevada. Chance to win started at 63%, low 62%, high better than 99%.

W 51-24 vs Butler #222 of 668

won by 27 as a 45.5-point favorite

Montana State won 51-24 vs Butler. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

W 54-0 @ Utah Tech #224 of 668

won by 54 as a 32.5-point favorite

Montana State won 54-0 at Utah Tech. Chance to win started at 96%, low 95%, high better than 99%.

Last 4 games

Idaho · 0-4

Rated 171st in our preseason ratings, 179th now.

4 straight losses.

L 39-41 vs Abilene Christian #130 of 668

lost by 2 as a 1.5-point underdog

Idaho lost 39-41 vs Abilene Christian. Chance to win started at 54%, low 1%, high 74%.

L 17-23 vs Lamar #151 of 668

lost by 6 as a 4.5-point favorite

Idaho lost 17-23 vs Lamar. Chance to win started at 65%, low under 1%, high 77%.

L 14-66 @ UtahTop 25 #26 of 668

lost by 52 as a 38.5-point underdog

Idaho lost 14-66 at Utah. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 34-38 @ Cal Poly #218 of 668

lost by 4 as a 5.5-point favorite

Idaho lost 34-38 at Cal Poly. Chance to win started at 49%, low under 1%, high 90%.

Week by week

Idaho

Wk 1: L 34-38 at Cal Poly▼4Cal PolyWk 1: L 14-66 at Utah▼52UtahWk 2: L 17-23 vs Lamar▼6LamarWk 3: L 39-41 vs Abilene Christian▼2Abilene Chr…
  • Wk 1Lat Cal Poly34-38
  • Wk 1Lat Utah14-66
  • Wk 2Lvs Lamar17-23
  • Wk 3Lvs Abilene Christian39-41

Montana State

Wk 1: W 54-0 at Utah Tech▲54Utah TechWk 1: W 51-24 vs Butler▲27ButlerWk 2: W 20-7 at Nevada▲13NevadaWk 3: W 35-30 vs Central Connecticut▲5C. Conne…Wk 4: W 28-14 vs Northern Arizona▲14N. Arizo…
  • Wk 1Wat Utah Tech54-0
  • Wk 1Wvs Butler51-24
  • Wk 2Wat Nevada20-7
  • Wk 3Wvs Central Connecticut35-30
  • Wk 4Wvs Northern Arizona28-14

Power rating by week

Montana State is rated 7.0 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

1-4-9Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4IdahoMontana State

The series

Montana State leads the series 13-12-1

26 meetings since 1926 · Montana State has won the last 2

Idaho wonMontana State won1926: tie1927: Idaho by 71928: Montana State by 21929: Idaho by 331930: Montana State by 11939: Idaho by 11941: Idaho by 391948: Idaho by 161962: Montana State by 181965: Idaho by 541966: Montana State by 141967: Montana State by 271968: Montana State by 31969: Idaho by 101970: Idaho by 131971: Idaho by 381972: Montana State by 141973: Montana State by 211974: Montana State by 152000: Idaho by 492016: Idaho by 32018: Montana State by 12021: Montana State by 72023: Idaho by 32024: Montana State by 312024: Montana State by 3319262024
  • 2024Montana State 52-19
  • 2024Montana State 38-7
  • 2023Idaho 24-21
  • 2021Montana State 20-13
  • 2018Montana State 24-23

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Idaho’s chances here.

50-50Model 11% · Line 1…Montana StateIdaho

Montana State favored by 14.5 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

Montana State by 14.5, on the usual path until 1:48 left in the fourth

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Idaho.

opened +15.5now +14.5

The total fell 1 point.

opened 57.5now 56.5

Spread: +15.5 → +14.5 · Total: 57.5 → 56.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Idaho is worth +6.8 points (±13.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 91st percentile.

50% at home, 12% on the road against FBS opponents (1-1 home, 2-15 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.7 at home vs. away over 58 games — inside the ±7.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 295 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.