Weber State beats Idaho 38-27

Team pages: Idaho · Weber State

Idaho1-527
Weber State4-338Final
Sat, Oct 10 · Stewart Stadium, Ogden, Utah · Crowd 5,785ESPN+

Weber State beat Idaho 38-27.

We had Weber State favored. It won.

Next: Idaho beat Montana 42-35, Sat Oct 17

Next: Weber State beat Idaho State 27-20, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

The turning point: Wood 39-yd TD pass to Harste, cuts it to 17-14 (Q3, 2:00). Weber State went from 82% to 63% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Weber State a 51% chance, and the closing betting line (Weber State was a 4-point underdog) put it at 37%.

Favored the whole way: Weber State never fell below 53%.

Idaho never had better than a 46% chance.

FinalWeber State 38-27 IdahoWeber State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q473% at halfWeber StateWon38-2712−19+15Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q473% at halfWeber StateWon38-2712Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q427% at halfWeber StateLost27-3812+19−15Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q427% at halfWeber StateLost27-3812Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 2:00Wood 39-yd TD pass to Harste, cuts it to 17-14Weber State 82% → 63% (−19)
  2. 2Q4 7:12Rigtrup 16-yd TD run, Weber State leads 31-21Weber State 78% → 93% (+15)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 2:00Wood 39-yd TD pass to Harste, cuts it to 17-14Idaho 18% → 37% (+19)
  2. 2Q4 7:12Rigtrup 16-yd TD run, Weber State leads 31-21Idaho 22% → 7% (−15)
Weber State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Idaho -4), at 65% for Weber State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Weber State scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Idaho on 4 of its 11.

Weber State’s drives are teal, Idaho’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Weber State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho: Missed field goal, from 71 yards out to 22Missed FGWeber State: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Weber State: Interception, from 75 yards out to 57InterceptionIdaho: Turned over on downs, from 62 yards out to 11DownsWeber State: Punt, from 89 yards out to 74PuntIdaho: Missed field goal, from 59 yards out to 18Missed FGWeber State: End of half, from 80 yards out to 58End of halfQ3Idaho: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntWeber State: Field goal, from 49 yards out to 8Field goalIdaho: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 19Missed FGWeber State: Fumble, from 80 yards out to 61FumbleIdaho: Touchdown, from 39 yards out to 0TouchdownWeber State: Punt, from 76 yards out to 69PuntIdaho: Interception, from 93 yards out to 87InterceptionQ4Weber State: Touchdown, from 14 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownWeber State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho: Interception, from 75 yards out to 51InterceptionWeber State: Touchdown, from 42 yards out to 0TouchdownIdaho: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownWeber State: End of game, from 48 yards out to 49End of game

From Idaho’s side

Idaho’s best moment: Wood 39-yd TD pass to Harste, cuts it to 17-14 (Q3 2:00). It lifted Idaho’s win chance by 19 points.

Box score

Weber State 38, Idaho 27

Weber State covered +4 by 15. The total, 65, stayed under 69.5.

Idaho leaders

  • Passing Joshua Wood 32 of 50, 383 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Joshua Wood 13 for 52 yds; Hayden Kincheloe 7 for 28 yds
  • Receiving Tony Harste 6 for 96 yds, 2 TD; Gus Donnerberg 8 for 91 yds

Weber State leaders

  • Passing Nate Dahle 10 of 19, 99 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Spencer Ferguson 14 for 153 yds, 2 TD; Seth Rigtrup 14 for 129 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Noah Kjar 5 for 50 yds, 1 TD; Robert Young 3 for 37 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Idaho · 1-4

Rated 171st in our preseason ratings, 170th now.

1-2 in its last three, capped by a 1-point win over Montana State as a 14.5-point underdog.

W 35-34 vs Montana State #84 of 668

won by 1 as a 14.5-point underdog

Idaho won 35-34 vs Montana State. Chance to win started at 18%, low 3%, high better than 99%.

L 39-41 vs Abilene Christian #130 of 668

lost by 2 as a 1.5-point underdog

Idaho lost 39-41 vs Abilene Christian. Chance to win started at 54%, low 1%, high 74%.

L 17-23 vs Lamar #151 of 668

lost by 6 as a 4.5-point favorite

Idaho lost 17-23 vs Lamar. Chance to win started at 65%, low under 1%, high 77%.

L 14-66 @ UtahTop 25 #26 of 668

lost by 52 as a 38.5-point underdog

Idaho lost 14-66 at Utah. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 34-38 @ Cal Poly #218 of 668

lost by 4 as a 5.5-point favorite

Idaho lost 34-38 at Cal Poly. Chance to win started at 49%, low under 1%, high 90%.

Last three games

Weber State · 3-3

Rated 238th in our preseason ratings, 225th now, up 13 spots.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 8-point win over Cal Poly as a 6-point underdog.

W 42-34 @ Cal Poly #214 of 668

won by 8 as a 6-point underdog

Weber State won 42-34 at Cal Poly. Chance to win started at 26%, low 8%, high better than 99%.

L 41-44 vs Portland State #251 of 668

lost by 3 as a 7-point favorite

W 49-20 vs Northwestern State #266 of 668

won by 29 as a 35.5-point favorite

Weber State won 49-20 vs Northwestern State. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

L 21-52 @ Colorado #142 of 668

lost by 31 as a 38.5-point underdog

Weber State lost 21-52 at Colorado. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 42-47 @ Southern Utah #149 of 668

lost by 5 as a 14.5-point underdog

W 30-29 @ Northern Colorado #254 of 668

won by 1 as a 3-point underdog

Weber State won 30-29 at Northern Colorado. Chance to win started at 46%, low 25%, high 90%.

Week by week

Weber State

Wk 1: L 42-47 at Southern Utah▼5S. UtahWk 2: L 21-52 at Colorado▼31ColoradoWk 3: W 49-20 vs Northwestern State▲29Northwes…Wk 4: L 41-44 vs Portland State▼3Portland…Wk 5: W 42-34 at Cal Poly▲8Cal Poly
  • Wk 1Lat Southern Utah42-47
  • Wk 2Lat Colorado21-52
  • Wk 3Wvs Northwestern State49-20
  • Wk 4Lvs Portland State41-44
  • Wk 5Wat Cal Poly42-34

Idaho

Wk 1: L 34-38 at Cal Poly▼4Cal PolyWk 1: L 14-66 at Utah▼52UtahWk 2: L 17-23 vs Lamar▼6LamarWk 3: L 39-41 vs Abilene Christian▼2Abilene…Wk 5: W 35-34 vs Montana State▲1Montana…
  • Wk 1Lat Cal Poly34-38
  • Wk 1Lat Utah14-66
  • Wk 2Lvs Lamar17-23
  • Wk 3Lvs Abilene Christian39-41
  • Wk 5Wvs Montana State35-34

Power rating by week

Idaho is rated 2.8 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-6-9-12Wk 0Wk 3Wk 5Weber StateIdaho

The series

Idaho leads the series 7-6

13 meetings since 1965 · Idaho won the last meeting

Weber State wonIdaho won1965: Weber State by 71966: Idaho by 301967: Weber State by 111968: Idaho by 81969: Weber State by 211970: Idaho by 101971: Idaho by 41972: Weber State by 161973: Idaho by 41974: Idaho by 252019: Weber State by 62023: Weber State by 22024: Idaho by 719652024
  • 2024Idaho 31-24
  • 2023Weber State 31-29
  • 2019Weber State 41-35
  • 1974Idaho 38-13
  • 1973Idaho 17-13

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Weber State’s chances here.

50-50Model · 51%Line · 37%IdahoWeber State

Idaho favored by 4 · Total 69.5

How games like this usually go

Idaho by 4, on the usual path until Q3 0:39

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2.5 points toward Idaho.

opened +1.5now +4

Spread: +1.5 → +4

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Weber State is worth +5.3 points (±8.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 72nd percentile.

40% at home, 15% on the road against FBS opponents (2-3 home, 2-11 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.4 at home vs. away over 57 games — inside the ±7.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

4,762 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 458 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.