Idaho upsets Montana 42-35
Idaho beat Montana 42-35 as a 16.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 10%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 10% or less in about 1 of every 11 games since 2018.
We had Montana favored. Idaho won.
Next: Idaho vs Southern Utah, Sat Oct 24 · 5:00 PM ET
Next: Montana at Eastern Washington, Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Wood 2-yd TD run, Idaho leads 21-7 (Q2, 6:21). Idaho went from 44% to 62% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Idaho a 7% chance, and the closing betting line (Idaho was a 16.5-point underdog) put it at 9%.
Idaho 42-35 Montana
Idaho wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Montana 35-42 IdahoMontana lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 11:534th and 1Ah Yat 3-yd TD pass to Gillman, ties it 35-35Idaho 46% → 28% (−18)
- 2Q4 0:41Ah Yat 6-yd pass to GillmanIdaho 63% → 81% (+18)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q4 11:534th and 1Ah Yat 3-yd TD pass to Gillman, ties it 35-35Montana 54% → 72% (+18)
- 2Q4 0:41Ah Yat 6-yd pass to GillmanMontana 37% → 19% (−18)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Montana -16.5), at 10% for Idaho (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Idaho scored on 6 of its 10 drives; Montana on 5 of its 8.
Idaho’s drives are teal, Montana’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Montana’s side
Montana’s best moment: Ah Yat 3-yd TD pass to Gillman, ties it 35-35 (Q4 11:53). It lifted Montana’s win chance by 18 points.
Too close to call on 53% of plays. The winner fell to 10%.
Box score
Idaho 42, Montana 35
Idaho covered +16.5 by 23.5. The total, 77, went over 62.5.
Idaho leaders
- Passing Joshua Wood 30 of 38, 335 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Joshua Wood 11 for 85 yds, 1 TD; Hayden Kincheloe 11 for 44 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Tony Harste 5 for 61 yds; Nolan McWilliams 5 for 60 yds
Montana leaders
- Passing Keali'i Ah Yat 25 of 31, 338 yds, 5 TD
- Rushing Eli Gillman 19 for 139 yds; Keali'i Ah Yat 5 for 9 yds
- Receiving Brooks Davis 8 for 104 yds, 3 TD; Landon Ransom-Goelz 3 for 67 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Idaho · 1-5
Rated 171st in our preseason ratings, 180th now.
1-2 in its last three, including a 1-point win over Montana State as a 14.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Montana · 5-2
Rated 93rd in our preseason ratings, 98th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 40-point win over UC Davis as a 3-point underdog.
Week by week
Montana
- Wk 2Wvs Utah Tech35-14
- Wk 3Lat Oregon State17-52
- Wk 4Wat UC Davis62-22
- Wk 5Wvs Northern Colorado36-14
- Wk 6Lat Northern Arizona44-49
Idaho
- Wk 1Lat Utah14-66
- Wk 2Lvs Lamar17-23
- Wk 3Lvs Abilene Christian39-41
- Wk 5Wvs Montana State35-34
- Wk 6Lat Weber State27-38
Power rating by week
Montana is rated 6.3 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Idaho leads the series 38-22-1
61 meetings since 1917 · Montana has won the last 2
- 2025Montana 41-30
- 2023Montana 23-21
- 2022Idaho 30-23
- 2021Montana 34-14
- 2019Montana 42-17
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on Montana’s chances here.
Montana favored by 16.5 · Total 62.5
How games like this usually go
Montana by 16.5, on the usual path until Q1 12:50
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Idaho.
The total rose 3 points.
Spread: −17.5 → −16.5 · Total: 59.5 → 62.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Montana is worth +13.2 points (±7.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
83% at home, 25% on the road against FBS opponents (5-1 home, 2-6 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.4 at home vs. away over 60 games — inside the ±8.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 144 miles to get here.