Northern Arizona upsets Montana 49-44
Team pages: Montana · Northern Arizona
Northern Arizona beat Montana 49-44 as a 9.5-point underdog. Share this game
We had Montana favored. Northern Arizona won.
Next: Montana lost to Idaho 42-35, Sat Oct 17
Next: Northern Arizona beat Portland State 38-25, Sat Oct 17
How it swung
The turning point: Graves 100-yd kickoff return TD, Northern Arizona leads 42-32 (Q4, 13:06). Northern Arizona went from 48% to 86% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Northern Arizona a 31% chance, and the closing betting line (Northern Arizona was a 9.5-point underdog) put it at 22%.
Northern Arizona 49-44 Montana
Northern Arizona wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Montana 44-49 Northern ArizonaMontana lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The four plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:57FumbleCoar 2-yd run, fumblesNorthern Arizona 45% → 23% (−22)
- 2Q4 13:19Yat 11-yd TD pass to Bridges, two-point try good, cuts it to 35-32Northern Arizona 79% → 48% (−31)
- 3Q4 13:06Special teamsGraves 100-yd kickoff return TD, Northern Arizona leads 42-32Northern Arizona 48% → 86% (+38)
- 4Q4 3:16Pennington 5-yd TD run, Northern Arizona leads 49-39Northern Arizona 69% → 93% (+24)
The four plays that swung it
- 1Q1 3:57FumbleCoar 2-yd run, fumblesMontana 55% → 77% (+22)
- 2Q4 13:19Yat 11-yd TD pass to Bridges, two-point try good, cuts it to 35-32Montana 21% → 52% (+31)
- 3Q4 13:06Special teamsGraves 100-yd kickoff return TD, Northern Arizona leads 42-32Montana 52% → 14% (−38)
- 4Q4 3:16Pennington 5-yd TD run, Northern Arizona leads 49-39Montana 31% → 7% (−24)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Montana -9.5), at 30% for Northern Arizona (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Northern Arizona scored on 7 of its 13 drives; Montana on 7 of its 11.
Northern Arizona’s drives are teal, Montana’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Montana’s side
Montana’s best moment: Yat 11-yd TD pass to Bridges, two-point try good, cuts it to 35-32 (Q4 13:19). It lifted Montana’s win chance by 31 points.
5 lead changes. The winner fell to 14%.
Box score
Northern Arizona 49, Montana 44
Northern Arizona covered +9.5 by 14.5. The total, 93, went over 64.5.
Montana leaders
- Passing Keali'i Ah Yat 29 of 39, 347 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Eli Gillman 19 for 94 yds, 2 TD; Monte Gillman 2 for 20 yds
- Receiving Landon Ransom-Goelz 7 for 128 yds, 1 TD; Lekeldrick Bridges 7 for 79 yds, 1 TD
Northern Arizona leaders
- Passing Ty Pennington 26 of 38, 322 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Ty Pennington 16 for 52 yds, 4 TD; Jon Wilson 5 for 41 yds
- Receiving Joey Stout 4 for 80 yds; Jeter Purdy 3 for 70 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Montana · 5-1
Rated 93rd in our preseason ratings, 96th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 40-point win over UC Davis as a 3-point underdog.
Last three games
Northern Arizona · 4-2
Rated 152nd in our preseason ratings, 148th now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Idaho State as a 7.5-point underdog.
W 38-31 @ Idaho State #135 of 668
won by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 35-23 @ Utah Tech #239 of 668
won by 12 as a 16.5-point favorite
W 38-28 vs Incarnate Word #144 of 668
won by 10 as a 4.5-point favorite
Week by week
Northern Arizona
- Wk 1Lat Arizona7-35
- Wk 2Wvs Incarnate Word38-28
- Wk 3Wat Utah Tech35-23
- Wk 4Lat Montana State14-28
- Wk 5Wat Idaho State38-31
Montana
- Wk 1Wvs Drake45-10
- Wk 2Wvs Utah Tech35-14
- Wk 3Lat Oregon State17-52
- Wk 4Wat UC Davis62-22
- Wk 5Wvs Northern Colorado36-14
Power rating by week
Montana is rated 4.0 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Montana leads the series 12-3
15 meetings since 2004 · Montana won the last meeting
- 2024Montana 31-20
- 2023Northern Arizona 28-14
- 2021Montana 30-3
- 2017Montana 17-15
- 2016Northern Arizona 45-34
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Northern Arizona’s chances here.
Montana favored by 9.5 · Total 64.5
How games like this usually go
Montana by 9.5, on the usual path until Q3 6:49
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Northern Arizona is worth +8.7 points (±10.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 99th percentile.
50% at home, 25% on the road against FBS opponents (2-2 home, 3-9 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 52 games — inside the ±8.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. 6,883 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 816 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Northern Arizona2nd3-1
- Montana1st4-0