Montana routs UC Davis 62-22

Team pages: Montana · UC Davis

Montana4-162
UC Davis3-222Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Aggie Stadium, Davis, Calif. · Crowd 11,238ESPN+

Montana routed UC Davis 62-22.

We had UC Davis favored. Montana won.

Next: Montana beat Northern Colorado 36-14, Sat Oct 3

Next: UC Davis beat Eastern Washington 49-38, Sat Oct 3

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Montana a 39% chance, and the closing betting line (Montana was a 3-point underdog) put it at 40%.

FinalMontana 62-22 UC DavisMontana wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4MontanaUC DavisLowest 33%Won62-2212+13+12Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4MontanaUC DavisLowest 33%Won62-2212Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4UC DavisMontanaLowest 0%High 67%Lost22-6212−13−12Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4UC DavisMontanaLowest 0%High 67%Lost22-6212Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 8:53Gillman 5-yd TD run, Montana goes ahead 7-0Montana 45% → 58% (+13)
  2. 2Q1 0:20Silver 39-yd field goal, Montana leads 17-0Montana 75% → 87% (+12)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 8:53Gillman 5-yd TD run, Montana goes ahead 7-0UC Davis 55% → 42% (−13)
  2. 2Q1 0:20Silver 39-yd field goal, Montana leads 17-0UC Davis 25% → 13% (−12)
Montana’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (UC Davis -3), at 35% for Montana (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Montana scored on 10 of its 14 drives; UC Davis on 3 of its 13.

Montana’s drives are teal, UC Davis’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Montana: Punt, from 68 yards out to 61PuntUC Davis: Punt, from 77 yards out to 83PuntMontana: Touchdown, from 45 yards out to 0TouchdownUC Davis: Punt, from 71 yards out to 55PuntMontana: Punt, from 80 yards out to 77PuntMontana: Touchdown, from 31 yards out to 0TouchdownUC Davis: Punt, from 35 yards out to 33PuntMontana: Field goal, from 62 yards out to 21Field goalUC Davis: Punt, from 75 yards out to 44PuntQ2Montana: Punt, from 80 yards out to 71PuntUC Davis: Punt, from 64 yards out to 37PuntMontana: Touchdown, from 99 yards out to 0TouchdownUC Davis: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntMontana: Touchdown, from 67 yards out to 0TouchdownUC Davis: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ3UC Davis: Punt, from 73 yards out to 60PuntMontana: Touchdown, from 77 yards out to 0TouchdownUC Davis: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 69DownsMontana: Touchdown, from 31 yards out to 0TouchdownUC Davis: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMontana: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownUC Davis: Turned over on downs, from 70 yards out to 33DownsMontana: Touchdown, from 67 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4UC Davis: Fumble, from 70 yards out to 22FumbleMontana: Field goal, from 78 yards out to 32Field goalUC Davis: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownMontana: End of game, from 70 yards out to 46End of game

From UC Davis’s side

UC Davis’s best moment: 48-yd punt, Davis returns it 8 (Q1 3:21). It lifted UC Davis’s win chance by 10 points.

Box score

Montana 62, UC Davis 22

Montana covered +3 by 43. The total, 84, went over 61.5.

Montana leaders

  • Passing Keali'i Ah Yat 21 of 31, 241 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Eli Gillman 26 for 275 yds, 4 TD; Keali'i Ah Yat 3 for 22 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Brooks Davis 9 for 121 yds, 1 TD; Dylan Paine 2 for 37 yds

UC Davis leaders

  • Passing Treynor Cleeland 18 of 33, 194 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Jordan Fisher 19 for 102 yds, 1 TD; Kai Acia 2 for 11 yds
  • Receiving Samuel Gbatu Jr. 6 for 103 yds; Xzavior Guess 2 for 43 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Montana · 3-1

Rated 93rd in our preseason ratings, 115th now.

3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 17-52 @ Oregon State #64 of 668

lost by 35 as a 17.5-point underdog

Montana lost 17-52 at Oregon State. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 9%.

W 35-14 vs Utah Tech #241 of 668

won by 21 as a 35.5-point favorite

Montana won 35-14 vs Utah Tech. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

W 45-10 vs Drake #192 of 668

won by 35 as a 35.5-point favorite

Montana won 45-10 vs Drake. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

W 28-21 vs Southern Utah #149 of 668

won by 7 as a 15.5-point favorite

Montana won 28-21 vs Southern Utah. Chance to win started at 88%, low 61%, high better than 99%.

Last 4 games

UC Davis · 3-1

Rated 116th in our preseason ratings, 117th now.

3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 45-7 vs Stetson #259 of 668

won by 38 as a 47.5-point favorite

UC Davis won 45-7 vs Stetson. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

L 10-56 @ SMUTop 25 #12 of 668

lost by 46 as a 32.5-point underdog

UC Davis lost 10-56 at SMU. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 3%.

W 49-17 @ San Diego #151 of 668

won by 32 as a 14.5-point favorite

UC Davis won 49-17 at San Diego. Chance to win started at 81%, low 49%, high better than 99%.

W 31-24 @ Portland State #242 of 668

won by 7 as a 25.5-point favorite

Week by week

UC Davis

Wk 1: W 31-24 at Portland State▲7Portland St.Wk 1: W 49-17 at San Diego▲32San DiegoWk 2: L 10-56 at SMU▼46SMUWk 3: W 45-7 vs Stetson▲38Stetson
  • Wk 1Wat Portland State31-24
  • Wk 1Wat San Diego49-17
  • Wk 2Lat SMU10-56
  • Wk 3Wvs Stetson45-7

Montana

Wk 1: W 28-21 vs Southern Utah▲7S. UtahWk 1: W 45-10 vs Drake▲35DrakeWk 2: W 35-14 vs Utah Tech▲21Utah TechWk 3: L 17-52 at Oregon State▼35Oregon State
  • Wk 1Wvs Southern Utah28-21
  • Wk 1Wvs Drake45-10
  • Wk 2Wvs Utah Tech35-14
  • Wk 3Lat Oregon State17-52

Power rating by week

Montana is rated 0.2 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-2.3-3.6-5.0Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3UC DavisMontana

The series

Montana leads the series 8-2

10 meetings since 1926 · UC Davis won the last meeting

UC Davis wonMontana won1926: Montana by 212008: Montana by 52009: Montana by 72013: Montana by 352014: Montana by 142015: Montana by 142018: UC Davis by 282019: Montana by 252023: Montana by 82024: UC Davis by 1619262024
  • 2024UC Davis 30-14
  • 2023Montana 31-23
  • 2019Montana 45-20
  • 2018UC Davis 49-21
  • 2015Montana 27-13

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on UC Davis’s chances here.

50-50Model 61% · Line 60%MontanaUC Davis

UC Davis favored by 3 · Total 61.5

How games like this usually go

UC Davis by 3, on the usual path until Q1 8:53

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Montana.

opened −3.5now −3

The total rose 1 point.

opened 60.5now 61.5

Spread: −3.5 → −3 · Total: 60.5 → 61.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

UC Davis is worth +8.3 points (±9.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.

67% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (2-1 home, 3-10 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.6 at home vs. away over 53 games — inside the ±8.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 697 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.