Montana beats Southern Utah 28-21
Team pages: Southern Utah · Montana
Montana beat Southern Utah 28-21. Share this game
Next: Southern Utah beat Weber State 47-42, Sat Sep 5
How it swung
The turning point: Yat 53-yd TD pass to Bridges, Montana goes ahead 28-21 (Q4, 3:14). Montana went from 76% to 94% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Montana a 74% chance, and the closing betting line (Montana was a 15.5-point favorite) put it at 89%.
Favored the whole way: Montana never fell below 60%.
Southern Utah never had better than a 39% chance.
Montana 28-21 Southern Utah
Montana wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Southern Utah 21-28 MontanaSouthern Utah lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The play that swung it
- 1Q4 3:14Yat 53-yd TD pass to Bridges, Montana goes ahead 28-21Montana 76% → 94% (+18)
The play that swung it
- 1Q4 3:14Yat 53-yd TD pass to Bridges, Montana goes ahead 28-21Southern Utah 24% → 6% (−18)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Montana -15.5), at 88% for Montana (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Montana scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Southern Utah on 4 of its 10.
Montana’s drives are teal, Southern Utah’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
Box score
Montana 28, Southern Utah 21
Southern Utah covered +15.5 by 8.5. The total, 49, stayed under 59.5.
Southern Utah leaders
- Passing Will Burns 24 of 34, 251 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Will Burns 15 for 119 yds; Floyd Chalk IV 25 for 100 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Joshua Acord 6 for 86 yds, 2 TD; Devin Downing 5 for 61 yds
Montana leaders
- Passing Keali'i Ah Yat 15 of 28, 264 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Eli Gillman 13 for 76 yds, 1 TD; Dylan Paine 2 for 3 yds
- Receiving Eli Gillman 2 for 93 yds, 1 TD; Lekeldrick Bridges 5 for 91 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Southern Utah · 7-5
Rated 144th in our preseason ratings.
W 36-34 @ North Alabama #232 of 667
won by 2 as an 18-point favorite
W 28-21 vs Central Arkansas #191 of 667
won by 7 as a 12.5-point favorite
W 27-17 @ Eastern Kentucky #190 of 667
won by 10 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 33-17 vs Austin Peay #123 of 667
won by 16 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 28-7 @ Utah Tech #227 of 667
won by 21 as a 9.5-point favorite
W 31-24 vs Abilene Christian #142 of 667
won by 7 as a 3-point underdog
L 42-52 @ Tarleton State #92 of 667
lost by 10 as a 20.5-point underdog
L 24-27 vs West Georgia #165 of 667
lost by 3 as a 1-point underdog
L 34-50 @ UC Davis #117 of 667
lost by 16 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 49-52 vs Northern Arizona #159 of 667
lost by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 27-30 @ San Diego #178 of 667
lost by 3 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 46-24 vs Idaho State #213 of 667
won by 22 as a 4.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Montana · 13-2
Rated 93rd in our preseason ratings.
L 23-48 @ Montana State #34 of 667
lost by 25 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 52-22 vs South Dakota #98 of 667
won by 30 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 50-29 vs South Dakota State #102 of 667
L 28-31 vs Montana State #43 of 667
lost by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog
W 63-17 @ Portland State #256 of 667
won by 46 as a 30.5-point favorite
W 29-24 vs Eastern Washington #196 of 667
won by 5 as a 27-point favorite
W 38-17 @ Weber State #217 of 667
won by 21 as a 19.5-point favorite
W 49-35 @ Sacramento State #123 of 667
won by 14 as a 6-point favorite
W 43-21 vs Sacred Heart #215 of 667
won by 22 as a 26.5-point favorite
W 28-9 vs Cal Poly #171 of 667
won by 19 as a 17.5-point favorite
W 42-38 @ Idaho State #182 of 667
won by 4 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 41-30 vs Idaho #146 of 667
won by 11 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 63-20 vs Indiana State #228 of 667
won by 43 as a 21-point favorite
W 24-23 vs North Dakota #132 of 667
won by 1 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 42-17 vs Central Washington #269 of 667
The series
Montana leads the series 6-0
6 meetings since 2007 · Montana has won the last 6
- 2021Montana 20-19
- 2018Montana 57-14
- 2016Montana 43-20
- 2014Montana 35-17
- 2008Montana 46-10
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Montana’s chances here.
Montana favored by 15.5 · Total 59.5
How games like this usually go
Montana by 15.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Southern Utah.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −16.5 → −15.5 · Total: 58.5 → 59.5
The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Montana is worth +13.2 points (±7.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
83% at home, 25% on the road against FBS opponents (5-1 home, 2-6 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.4 at home vs. away over 60 games — inside the ±8.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 637 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Montana8th0-0
- Southern Utah6th0-0