Sacred Heart · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Sacred Heart · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Sacred Heart2013
First FCS playoff appearance
Sacred Heart wins the NEC co-championship and earns its first-ever FCS playoff bid — the defining moment of the Nofri era
Sacred Heart8-4Hope-Doping·Offseason
Sacred Heart is the Connecticut Catholic school that started FCS football in 1999, went independent for a decade, and joins the CAA in 2026 — the Pioneers are a winning program on the verge of testing itself against the FCS's most competitive conference.
Standard GapAn 8-4 independent season in 2025 and 14 seasons under Mark Nofri who bu…
Fans say Sacred Heart has been winning games in FCS for 26 years and no one in national media has paid attention — they believe joining the CAA in 2026 is the program finally demanding the spotlight i…
low signal
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at Monmouth · Sat Sep 5 · 18:00 UTC
The experience
Sacred Heart is the Connecticut Catholic school that started FCS football in 1999, went independent for a decade, and joins the CAA in 2026 — the Pioneers are a winning program on the verge of testing itself against the FCS's most competitive conference.
Quiet weeks in Pioneers country.
Sacred Heart · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 6-6
Base 8-4
Ceiling 11-1
floor6-6Competitive but likely outside the at-large field.
base8-4Conference title contender. Playoff bid realistic.
ceiling11-1Conference title + deep playoff run.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3
The forecast
Opens Sep 5
vs Monmouth · away
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Sacred Heart Defeats Howard 32-14
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
The Pulse on Sacred Heart
—
Quiet weeks in Pioneers country.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Sacred Heart"
— Sacred Heart fanbase · recurring line
5 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Sacred Heart · medium confidence
Growing (55)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 8-4 (67% win rate)67
Volume — 5 effective signal-N44
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Sacred Heart · 2025 schedule & results8-4Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 50% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #236 | #256 | -6.5 | Stonehill | W 12–7 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #244 | #196 | +20 | @Lehigh | L 10–28 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #247 | #154 | +13.5 | @Long Island University | W 24–21 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #231 | #244 | +1 | @Norfolk State | W 31–28 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #235 | #206 | +5 | Delaware State | W 35–31 | 4-1 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #232 | #215 | +5.5 | @Central Connecticut | L 35–42 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #222 | #170 | -2.5 | Howard | W 32–14 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #201 | #100 | +26.5 | @Montana | L 21–43 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #207 | #263 | -15.5 | New Haven | W 35–20 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #203 | — | — | Virginia Lynchburg | W 56–10 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #193 | #215 | -6.5 | Merrimack | W 42–37 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #192 | #118 | +16 | @Villanova | L 10–34 | 8-4 | 0-0 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @Villanova | L 10–34 | — | — | — | +0.089 | 37.1% | 127.2% | |
| Nov 15 | Merrimack | W 42–37 | — | — | — | +0.517 | 51.7% | 155.5% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 8 | Virginia Lynchburg | W 56–10 | — | — | — | +0.265 | 69.8% | 74.8% | Best success rate |
| Nov 1 | New Haven | W 35–20 | — | — | — | +0.181 | 38.0% | 137.1% | |
| Oct 18 | @Montana | L 21–43 | — | — | — | +0.242 | 42.9% | 134.2% | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 11 | Howard | W 32–14 | — | — | — | +0.306 | 46.2% | 148.0% | |
| Oct 4 | @Central Connecticut | L 35–42 | — | — | — | +0.379 | 46.8% | 138.8% | One-score loss |
| Sep 27 | Delaware State | W 35–31 | — | — | — | +0.401 | 55.1% | 107.3% | One-score win |
| Sep 20 | @Norfolk State | W 31–28 | — | — | — | +0.207 | 39.7% | 124.4% | One-score win |
| Aug 30 | Stonehill | W 12–7 | — | — | — | +0.003 | 38.1% | 116.9% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (10 games) | — | — | +0.259 | 46.5% | 126.4% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Sacred Heart's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.26; 83rd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.07. The widest gap came in week 21: 0.26 raw vs. 0.07 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Sacred Heart · 2018-present
Elite
71% home win rate vs 35% on the road. margin runs +14.6 better at home. Campus Field seats 3,334, averaging 114% full (3,813 attendance, 11 games reported).
Home27-11Away15-27
Venue texture
64°F average kickoff temp; 7% of games had measurable precipitation; 10 mph average wind.
Based on 28 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Sacred Heart
National Program
All-Time Record
117-130
since 1903 · 26 seasons · .473 win rate
HOME
62-50
AWAY
44-64
NEUTRAL
11-16
1900s
1910s
2000s
2010s
2020s
CAA Standing · 2025
12th in the CAA
Sacred Heart is 12th of 13 in the CAA at 0-0. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on playoff positioning and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rhode Island | 8-0 |
| 2 | New Hampshire | 5-1 |
| 3 | Maine | 5-2 |
| 4 | Monmouth | 5-2 |
| 5 | Elon | 4-2 |
| 6 | Stony Brook | 4-3 |
| 7 | Towson | 4-3 |
| 8 | Campbell | 2-5 |
| 9 | North Carolina A&T | 2-5 |
| 10 | UAlbany | 1-5 |
| 11 | Bryant | 1-7 |
| 12 | Sacred Heart | 0-0 |
| 13 | Hampton | 0-6 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2025 independent farewell
Pioneers go 8-4 in their final independent season before CAA membership — a winning capstone for the pre-CAA era
Moment of the Year · Sacred Heart · 2025
Moment of the Year · Sacred Heart · 2025Won 32-14 vs Howard
Week 7 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
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