Maine · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Maine · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Maine1987
First FCS playoff appearance
Maine earns its first postseason berth, beginning a playoff tradition across decades
Maine6-6Hope-Doping·Offseason
Maine is the northernmost FCS program, chasing a return to the 2018 playoff magic that put Orono on the national map — the Black Bears have made eight FCS playoff runs and keep building toward the next one.
Standard GapEight FCS playoff appearances and a 2018 semifinal run vs a post-2018 dr…
The fanbase says Maine gets dismissed as a geographic outlier — a program in the far corner of New England that national FCS coverage treats as an afterthought — while the Black Bears have eight playo…
low signal
Approaching
21 days
until kickoff · at Towson · Thu Aug 27 · 22:00 UTC
The experience
Maine is the northernmost FCS program, chasing a return to the 2018 playoff magic that put Orono on the national map — the Black Bears have made eight FCS playoff runs and keep building toward the next one.
The Bears are in the woods.
Maine · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 4-8
Base 6-6
Ceiling 9-3
floor4-8Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base6-6Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling9-3Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak L2Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast
Opens Aug 27
vs Towson · away
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Maine
—
The Bears are in the woods.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Black Bears."
— Maine fanbase · recurring line
23 mentions · sample growing
Fanbase Health Index · Maine · medium confidence
Growing (57)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 6-6 (50% win rate)58
Volume — 22 effective signal-N57
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#89 / 138 · 36th pct24.2
Pts allowed/game#59 / 138 · 58th pct24.2
All 23 stats
Other
H1 epa per play opponent#95 / 167 · 44th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct0.20.0/gm
H1 epa per play#131 / 162 · 20th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct0.10.0/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#140 / 143 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct0.40.0/gm
First down pass rate#184 / 215 · 15th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#10 / 11 · 18th pct0.30.0/gm
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team20.2/gm#156 / 167 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#7 / 7 · 14th pct
Opp100.8/gm#13 / 166 · 93rd pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#5 / 7 · 43rd pct
Red zone score %
Team50.0%50.0%#157 / 167 · 7th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#5 / 7 · 43rd pct
Opp90.0%90.0%#145 / 166 · 13th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#7 / 7 · 14th pct
Points / drive
Team0.70.1/gm#151 / 167 · 10th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#4 / 7 · 57th pct
Opp3.00.3/gm#147 / 166 · 12th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#5 / 7 · 43rd pct
Yards / drive
Team29.02.4/gm#149 / 167 · 11th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#3 / 7 · 71st pct
Opp46.63.9/gm#146 / 166 · 13th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#6 / 7 · 29th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.20.5/gm#127 / 167 · 25th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct#2 / 7 · 86th pct
Opp70.6/gm#146 / 166 · 13th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct#7 / 7 · 14th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team13.0%13.0%#74 / 167 · 56th pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#4 / 7 · 57th pct
Opp12.5%12.5%#98 / 166 · 42nd pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#3 / 7 · 71st pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Standard-downs success
Team37.9%37.9%#148 / 154 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp55.8%55.8%#155 / 172 · 10th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Passing-downs success
Team26.3%26.3%#123 / 153 · 20th pct#66 / 70 · 7th pct
Opp44.1%44.1%#148 / 149 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Line yards / carry allowed#147 / 155 · 6th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct3.63.6
Stuff rate forced#125 / 155 · 20th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct15.3%15.3%
Power success allowed#124 / 141 · 13th pct#62 / 70 · 13th pct80.0%80.0%
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Maine · 2025 schedule & results6-6Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 42% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #209 | #38 | +25.5 | @Liberty | L 7–28 73 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #132 | #195 | +7 | @William & Mary | L 27–28 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #151 | #253 | -21 | Stonehill | L 10–13 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #186 | #76 | +23.5 | @Georgia Southern | L 17–45 75 | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #188 | #264 | -13.5 | North Carolina A&T | W 37–30 | 1-4 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #208 | #211 | +2.5 | @Bryant | W 34–14 | 2-4 | 2-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #181 | #208 | -2.5 | @Merrimack | W 20–13 | 3-4 | 2-0 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #175 | #153 | +4.5 | Elon | W 35–14 | 4-4 | 3-0 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #159 | #175 | -1 | Stony Brook | W 28–21 | 5-4 | 4-0 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #157 | #257 | -14.5 | @Hampton | W 35–7 | 6-4 | 5-0 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #151 | #112 | +4 | Rhode Island | L 13–45 | 6-5 | 5-1 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #179 | #123 | +7.5 | @New Hampshire | L 27–33 | 6-6 | 5-2 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @New Hampshire | L 27–33 | — | — | — | +0.315 | 41.2% | 161.4% | One-score loss |
| Nov 15 | Rhode Island | L 13–45 | — | — | — | +0.023 | 34.4% | 125.5% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 8 | @Hampton | W 35–7 | — | — | — | +0.253 | 46.3% | 120.7% | Blowout win |
| Nov 1 | Stony Brook | W 28–21 | — | — | — | +0.040 | 37.8% | 127.3% | One-score win |
| Oct 25 | Elon | W 35–14 | — | — | — | +0.301 | 46.2% | 122.5% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 11 | @Merrimack | W 20–13 | — | — | — | +0.103 | 41.5% | 129.0% | One-score win |
| Oct 4 | @Bryant | W 34–14 | — | — | — | +0.388 | 46.3% | 142.1% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 27 | North Carolina A&T | W 37–30 | — | — | — | +0.258 | 47.2% | 129.5% | Best success rate |
| Sep 20 | @Georgia Southern | L 17–45 | — | — | — | -0.024 | 33.3% | 127.8% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 13 | Stonehill | L 10–13 | — | — | — | -0.004 | 34.0% | 104.1% | One-score loss |
| Sep 6 | @William & Mary | L 27–28 | — | — | — | +0.231 | 42.4% | 118.2% | One-score loss |
| Aug 30 | @Liberty | L 7–28 | — | — | — | +0.118 | 29.5% | 195.2% | Most explosive |
| Season average (12 games) | — | — | +0.167 | 40.0% | 133.6% | ||||
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Maine hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
3rd percentile success on standard downs, 18th on passing downs — a 15-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Schedule mirage
How much of Maine's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.17; 61st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 21: 0.17 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Maine · 2018-present
Above-Average
54% home win rate vs 37% on the road. margin runs +7.6 better at home. Alfond Stadium seats 10,000, averaging 48% full (4,752 attendance, 10 games reported).
Home19-16Away18-30
Venue texture
61°F average kickoff temp; 12% of games had measurable precipitation; 10 mph average wind.
Based on 25 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Maine
National Program
All-Time Record
136-185-3
since 1887 · 66 seasons · .419 win rate
HOME
70-55-1
AWAY
50-118-2
NEUTRAL
16-12
1880s
1890s
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
CAA Standing · 2025
3rd in the CAA
Maine is 3rd in the CAA at 5-2. 2 teams above — that's the direct path to the title game.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rhode Island | 8-0 |
| 2 | New Hampshire | 5-1 |
| 3 | Maine | 5-2 |
| 4 | Monmouth | 5-2 |
| 5 | Elon | 4-2 |
| 6 | Stony Brook | 4-3 |
| 7 | Towson | 4-3 |
| 8 | Campbell | 2-5 |
| 9 | North Carolina A&T | 2-5 |
| 10 | UAlbany | 1-5 |
| 11 | Bryant | 1-7 |
| 12 | Sacred Heart | 0-0 |
| 13 | Hampton | 0-6 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2018 FCS national semifinal
Maine advances to the national semifinals, losing to Eastern Washington 50-19 — the program's deepest playoff run ever
Heartbreak
Moment of the Year · Maine · 2025
Moment of the Year · Maine · 2025Won 34-14 at Bryant
Week 6 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Playoff History
Playoff HistoryRecent postseason (2018): 0-1
Most recent: 2018 — loss 50-19 (away). Last 5 postseason: 0-1.
2018
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