Merrimack Warriors · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Merrimack Warriors · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Merrimack Warriors2006 NE-10 Championship
Merrimack wins the Northeast-10 title under Jim Murphy and makes its only FCS playoff appearance
Merrimack Warriors4-8Hope-Doping·Offseason
Merrimack football is a program that has played in five different conferences in 27 years, is now building as an FCS Independent, and proved it can beat ranked teams (Holy Cross, 2021) — a scrappy program proving it belongs every season.
Title DroughtSince 2009 · 16 yrs
Fans here believe merrimack doesn't have a chip against specific rivals. The program's rival is instability itself — proving that a team can build real culture despite constant conference changes and…
low signal
Approaching
22 days
until kickoff · vs Rhode Island · Fri Aug 28 · 04:00 UTC
The experience
Merrimack football is a program that has played in five different conferences in 27 years, is now building as an FCS Independent, and proved it can beat ranked teams (Holy Cross, 2021) — a scrappy program proving it belongs every season.
The Warriors keep the faith.
Merrimack Warriors · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 2-10
Base 4-8
Ceiling 7-5
floor2-10Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base4-8Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling7-5Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cold
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Streak W1Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 3-7
The forecast
Opens Aug 28
vs Rhode Island · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Merrimack Warriors
—
The Warriors keep the faith.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Merrimack"
— Merrimack Warriors fanbase · recurring line
6 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Merrimack Warriors · medium confidence
Stable (47)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 4-8 (33% win rate)48
Volume — 6 effective signal-N46
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#116 / 138 · 17th pct20.5
Pts allowed/game#59 / 138 · 58th pct24.4
All 25 stats
Other
First down pass rate#108 / 215 · 50th pct#37 / 70 · 49th pct#2 / 3 · 67th pct0.40.0/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#114 / 167 · 32nd pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct0.20.0/gm
H1 epa per play#115 / 162 · 30th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct0.10.0/gm
H2 epa per play#119 / 142 · 17th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct0.10.0/gm
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team40.3/gm#148 / 167 · 12th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp60.5/gm#2 / 166 · 99th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct
Red zone score %
Team75.0%75.0%#104 / 167 · 38th pct#55 / 70 · 23rd pct
Opp83.3%83.3%#117 / 166 · 30th pct#56 / 70 · 21st pct
Points / drive
Team1.00.1/gm#141 / 167 · 16th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp1.80.1/gm#56 / 166 · 67th pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct
Yards / drive
Team35.83.0/gm#125 / 167 · 26th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct
Opp38.63.2/gm#49 / 166 · 71st pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct
Plays / drive
Team6.50.5/gm#97 / 167 · 43rd pct#50 / 70 · 30th pct
Opp6.40.5/gm#60 / 166 · 64th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team16.7%16.7%#119 / 167 · 29th pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct
Opp0.0%0.0%#163 / 166 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#37 / 145 · 75th pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct+3.8%+3.8%
Standard-downs success
Team26.9%26.9%#152 / 154 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp46.7%46.7%#62 / 172 · 65th pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct
Passing-downs success
Team36.0%36.0%#26 / 153 · 84th pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct
Opp22.9%22.9%#5 / 149 · 97th pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct
Line yards / carry
Team2.12.1#139 / 143 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp3.23.2#122 / 155 · 22nd pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct
Stuff rate
Team33.3%33.3%#142 / 143 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp13.3%13.3%#138 / 155 · 12th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Merrimack Warriors · 2025 schedule & results4-8Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 49% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #199 | #264 | +5.5 | @Kent State | L 17–21 55 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #227 | #335 | — | St. Anselm | W 31–6 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #231 | #144 | +17 | @Kennesaw State | L 13–27 63 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #209 | #215 | -1.5 | Central Connecticut | W 16–14 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #213 | #192 | +7 | @Stony Brook | L 10–35 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #226 | #250 | -8 | Robert Morris | W 24–7 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #208 | #181 | +2.5 | Maine | L 13–20 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #209 | #151 | +27.5 | @Harvard | L 7–31 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #214 | #208 | +7 | @Colgate | L 20–23 | 3-6 | 0-0 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #208 | #267 | -9.5 | @New Haven | L 31–41 | 3-7 | 0-0 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #215 | #193 | +6.5 | @Sacred Heart | L 37–42 | 3-8 | 0-0 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #222 | #255 | -5.5 | Fordham | W 27–26 | 4-8 | 0-0 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | Fordham | W 27–26 | — | — | — | -0.077 | 19.7% | 189.4% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 15 | @Sacred Heart | L 37–42 | — | — | — | +0.315 | 47.1% | 122.2% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 8 | @New Haven | L 31–41 | — | — | — | +0.078 | 34.2% | 138.4% | |
| Nov 1 | @Colgate | L 20–23 | — | — | — | +0.239 | 43.7% | 153.4% | One-score loss |
| Oct 18 | @Harvard | L 7–31 | — | — | — | -0.002 | 43.5% | 100.0% | |
| Oct 11 | Maine | L 13–20 | — | — | — | +0.141 | 33.3% | 126.4% | One-score loss |
| Oct 4 | Robert Morris | W 24–7 | — | — | — | +0.188 | 44.3% | 128.8% | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 27 | @Stony Brook | L 10–35 | — | — | — | -0.014 | 29.4% | 121.4% | |
| Sep 20 | Central Connecticut | W 16–14 | — | — | — | -0.023 | 41.7% | 89.5% | One-score win |
| Sep 13 | @Kennesaw State | L 13–27 | — | — | — | +0.165 | 31.7% | 166.4% | |
| Aug 30 | @Kent State | L 17–21 | — | — | — | +0.073 | 32.3% | 144.1% | One-score loss |
| Season average (11 games) | — | — | +0.098 | 36.4% | 134.6% | ||||
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Merrimack Warriors hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
1st percentile success on standard downs, 83rd on passing downs — a 82-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Merrimack Warriors by half
1st-half offense ranks 30th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 17th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Merrimack Warriors's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.10; 44th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.12 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Merrimack Warriors · 2018-present
Strong
60% home win rate vs 40% on the road. margin runs +9.6 better at home. Duane Stadium seats 3,500.
Home18-12Away15-22
Venue texture
63°F average kickoff temp; 20% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.
Based on 25 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Merrimack Warriors
Power Program
All-Time Record
34-41
since 2006 · 14 seasons · .453 win rate
HOME
18-12
AWAY
16-28
NEUTRAL
0-1
2000s
2010s
2020s
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2009 NE-10 Championship
Merrimack wins a second Northeast-10 title under John Perry
Holy Cross Victory (2021)
Merrimack defeats ranked #24 Holy Cross 35–21 — the biggest win in program history
Moment of the Year · Merrimack Warriors · 2025
Moment of the Year · Merrimack Warriors · 2025Won 31-6 vs St. Anselm
Week 2 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
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