Yale beats Merrimack 41-24

Team pages: Merrimack · Yale

Merrimack2-424
Yale2-141Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Yale Bowl, New Haven, Conn. · Crowd 4,022ESPN+

Yale beat Merrimack 41-24.

Next: Merrimack lost to Dartmouth 27-21, Sat Oct 17

Next: Yale beat Dartmouth 28-7, Sat Oct 10

How it swung

The turning point: Reno intercepted by Claude at the Merrimack 25 and returned for a TD, Merrimack goes ahead 14-7 (Q1, 2:21). Yale went from 87% to 60% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Yale a 78% chance, and the closing betting line (Yale was a 14-point favorite) put it at 87%.

Yale came back from 14 down, at one point just a 32% chance in the second quarter.

Merrimack led by 14, was as high as 68% in the second quarter, and still lost.

21 unansweredMerrimack · Q1 2:21
FinalYale 41-24 MerrimackYale wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q477% at halfYaleMerrimackLowest 32%Won41-2412−27+20Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q477% at halfYaleMerrimackLowest 32%Won41-2412Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q423% at halfMerrimackYaleHigh 68%Lost24-4112+27−20Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q423% at halfMerrimackYaleHigh 68%Lost24-4112Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 2:21InterceptionReno intercepted by Claude at the Merrimack 25 and returned for a TD, Merrimack goes ahead 14-7Yale 87% → 60% (−27)
  2. 2Q2 1:56Reno 10-yd TD pass to Santiago, cuts it to 21-17Yale 47% → 67% (+20)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 2:21InterceptionReno intercepted by Claude at the Merrimack 25 and returned for a TD, Merrimack goes ahead 14-7Merrimack 13% → 40% (+27)
  2. 2Q2 1:56Reno 10-yd TD pass to Santiago, cuts it to 21-17Merrimack 53% → 33% (−20)
Yale’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Yale -14), at 88% for Yale (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Yale scored on 7 of its 15 drives; Merrimack on 3 of its 13.

Yale’s drives are teal, Merrimack’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Merrimack: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 72FumbleYale: Touchdown, from 28 yards out to 0TouchdownMerrimack: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Punt, from 75 yards out to 46PuntMerrimack: Punt, from 91 yards out to 84PuntYale: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 43 yards out to 27Interception TDYale: Punt, from 91 yards out to 75PuntQ2Merrimack: Punt, from 62 yards out to 61PuntYale: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntMerrimack: Touchdown, from 92 yards out to 0TouchdownYale: Field goal, from 66 yards out to 10Field goalMerrimack: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntYale: Touchdown, from 52 yards out to 0TouchdownMerrimack: Punt, from 75 yards out to 56PuntYale: End of half, from 78 yards out to 71End of halfQ3Yale: Touchdown, from 78 yards out to 0TouchdownMerrimack: Field goal, from 78 yards out to 8Field goalYale: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 79FumbleMerrimack: Missed field goal, from 21 yards out to 18Missed FGYale: Punt, from 80 yards out to 74PuntMerrimack: Punt, from 74 yards out to 78PuntYale: Touchdown, from 59 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Merrimack: Punt, from 81 yards out to 75PuntYale: Field goal, from 66 yards out to 21Field goalMerrimack: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntYale: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownMerrimack: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 41FumbleYale: End of game, from 59 yards out to 47End of game

From Merrimack’s side

Merrimack’s best moment: Reno intercepted by Claude at the Merrimack 25 and returned for a TD, Merrimack goes ahead 14-7 (Q1 2:21). It lifted Merrimack’s win chance by 27 points.

Box score

Yale 41, Merrimack 24

Yale covered −14 by 3. The total, 65, went over 48.5.

Merrimack leaders

  • Passing AJ Hairston 11 of 26, 192 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing AJ Hairston 10 for 69 yds; DeMarcus McElroy 4 for 39 yds
  • Receiving Kenyon Massey 2 for 89 yds, 1 TD; Dennis Morgan 1 for 40 yds, 1 TD

Yale leaders

  • Passing Dante Reno 22 of 39, 298 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Hugo Djeumeni Kemeni 30 for 132 yds, 1 TD; Dante Reno 5 for 39 yds
  • Receiving Lucius Anderson 7 for 116 yds; Jaxton Santiago 5 for 100 yds, 2 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Merrimack · 2-3

Rated 210th in our preseason ratings, 209th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 9-point win over Maine as a 10-point underdog.

W 17-10 vs New Haven #256 of 668

won by 7 as a 10-point favorite

Merrimack won 17-10 vs New Haven. Chance to win started at 82%, low 74%, high 99%.

L 20-45 @ Tarleton State #96 of 668

lost by 25 as a 32.5-point underdog

Merrimack lost 20-45 at Tarleton State. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 4%.

W 23-14 @ Maine #208 of 668

won by 9 as a 10-point underdog

Merrimack won 23-14 at Maine. Chance to win started at 17%, low 13%, high 96%.

L 7-42 @ Delaware #43 of 668

lost by 35 as a 31.5-point underdog

Merrimack lost 7-42 at Delaware. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 3%.

L 7-34 vs Rhode Island #107 of 668

lost by 27 as a 21-point underdog

Merrimack lost 7-34 vs Rhode Island. Chance to win started at 11%, low under 1%, high 19%.

Last two games

Yale · 1-1

Rated 211th in our preseason ratings, 208th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 25-38 @ Cornell #236 of 668

lost by 13 as a 14-point favorite

Yale lost 25-38 at Cornell. Chance to win started at 78%, low under 1%, high 83%.

W 38-28 @ Holy Cross #238 of 668

won by 10 as a 21-point favorite

Yale won 38-28 at Holy Cross. Chance to win started at 91%, low 42%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Yale

Wk 3: W 38-28 at Holy Cross▲10Holy CrossWk 4: L 25-38 at Cornell▼13Cornell
  • Wk 3Wat Holy Cross38-28
  • Wk 4Lat Cornell25-38

Merrimack

Wk 1: L 7-34 vs Rhode Island▼27Rhode Is…Wk 1: L 7-42 at Delaware▼35DelawareWk 2: W 23-14 at Maine▲9MaineWk 3: L 20-45 at Tarleton State▼25Tarleton…Wk 4: W 17-10 vs New Haven▲7New Haven
  • Wk 1Lvs Rhode Island7-34
  • Wk 1Lat Delaware7-42
  • Wk 2Wat Maine23-14
  • Wk 3Lat Tarleton State20-45
  • Wk 4Wvs New Haven17-10

Power rating by week

Yale is rated 0.1 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-8.3-9.1-9.9Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4YaleMerrimack

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Yale’s chances here.

50-50Model · 78%Line · 87%MerrimackYale

Yale favored by 14 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Yale by 14, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Yale.

opened −12.5now −14

The total fell 3 points.

opened 51.5now 48.5

Spread: −12.5 → −14 · Total: 51.5 → 48.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Where next