New Haven · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · New Haven · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · New Haven2025 inaugural FCS season
New Haven goes 5-5 in its first year in Division I and the Northeast Conference
Miracle
New Haven5-5Hope-Doping·Offseason
New Haven is the Chargers climbing into FCS for the first time — a Northeast Conference newcomer proving that the jump from D-II can be navigated with discipline and time.
Title DroughtSince 2025
Plenty of D-II programs jump to FCS and stumble. New Haven's first season proved they had the discipline to stay competitive — now the fanbase wants the program to climb, not just hold its ground.
low signal
Approaching
22 days
until kickoff · vs Marist · Fri Aug 28 · 22:00 UTC
The experience
New Haven is the Chargers climbing into FCS for the first time — a Northeast Conference newcomer proving that the jump from D-II can be navigated with discipline and time.
The Chargers keep the faith.
New Haven · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 3-9
Base 5-7
Ceiling 8-4
floor3-9Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base5-7Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling8-4Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Mixed
Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.
Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 5-5
The forecast
Opens Aug 28
vs Marist · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on New Haven
—
The Chargers keep the faith.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go New Haven"
— New Haven fanbase · recurring line
3 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · New Haven · medium confidence
Stable (49)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 5-5 (50% win rate)58
Volume — 3 effective signal-N40
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
New Haven · 2025 schedule & results5-5Soft slateAverage opponent win rate 41% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #265 | #253 | -3.5 | @Marist | L 14–31 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #254 | #246 | +12.5 | @Mercyhurst | L 14–48 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #257 | #161 | +19.5 | @UAlbany | W 24–17 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #257 | #328 | — | Saginaw Valley State | W 35–28 | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #265 | #201 | +18 | @Duquesne | L 18–44 | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #265 | #415 | — | Pace | W 28–14 | 3-3 | 0-2 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #266 | #506 | — | Western Connecticut St | W 69–0 | 4-3 | 0-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #254 | #217 | +10 | @Long Island University | L 16–38 | 4-4 | 0-3 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #263 | #207 | +15.5 | @Sacred Heart | L 20–35 | 4-5 | 0-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #267 | #208 | +9.5 | Merrimack | W 41–31 | 5-5 | 0-3 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 | Merrimack | W 41–31 | — | — | — | +0.369 | 46.6% | 144.0% | |
| Nov 1 | @Sacred Heart | L 20–35 | — | — | — | -0.001 | 29.8% | 138.4% | |
| Oct 25 | @Long Island University | L 16–38 | — | — | — | -0.393 | 22.5% | 135.8% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 11 | Western Connecticut St | W 69–0 | — | — | — | +0.630 | 53.0% | 167.3% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 4 | Pace | W 28–14 | — | — | — | +0.161 | 50.8% | 85.8% | |
| Sep 27 | @Duquesne | L 18–44 | — | — | — | +0.128 | 47.4% | 132.0% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 20 | Saginaw Valley State | W 35–28 | — | — | — | +0.241 | 39.4% | 139.0% | One-score win |
| Sep 13 | @UAlbany | W 24–17 | — | — | — | +0.121 | 41.9% | 99.6% | One-score win |
| Aug 29 | @Marist | L 14–31 | — | — | — | +0.026 | 35.1% | 135.9% | |
| Season average (9 games) | — | — | +0.142 | 40.7% | 130.9% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of New Haven's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.14; 50th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.03. The widest gap came in week 8: 0.22 raw vs. 0.08 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · New Haven · 2018-present
Elite
88% home win rate vs 51% on the road. margin runs +21.3 better at home. Ralph F. DellaCamera Stadium seats 5,000, averaging 119% full (5,947 attendance, 4 games reported).
Home23-3Away15-14
Venue texture
67°F average kickoff temp; 12% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.
Based on 26 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · New Haven
Power Program
All-Time Record
39-19
since 2003 · 8 seasons · .672 win rate
HOME
23-3
AWAY
15-15
NEUTRAL
1-1
2000s
2010s
2020s
NEC Standing · 2025
8th in the NEC
New Haven is 8th of 9 in the NEC at 0-3. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on playoff positioning and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Connecticut | 6-1 |
| 2 | Duquesne | 6-2 |
| 3 | Long Island University | 5-3 |
| 4 | Mercyhurst | 5-3 |
| 5 | Wagner | 4-3 |
| 6 | Stonehill | 3-4 |
| 7 | Robert Morris | 2-5 |
| 8 | New Haven | 0-3 |
| 9 | St. Francis (PA) | 0-7 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Moment of the Year · New Haven · 2025
Moment of the Year · New Haven · 2025Won 28-14 vs Pace
Week 6 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
Playoff History
Playoff HistoryRecent postseason (2023): 0-1
Most recent: 2023 — loss 52-44 (away). Last 5 postseason: 0-1.
2023
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