New Haven at South Dakota State
How they got here
Last two games
New Haven · 1-1
Picked #251 in the preseason · now #262.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last two games
South Dakota State · 1-1
Picked #105 in the preseason · now #99 — about right.
1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 18–34 @ Northwestern #18 of 669
lost by 16 as a 14-point underdog
W 70–7 vs Stetson #245 of 669
won by 63 as a 50.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
New Haven
- New Haven needs 5 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility.
- New Haven is still shaking off a 43-point loss.
South Dakota State
- South Dakota State needs 5 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility.
- South Dakota State is coming off a 43-point win.
The series
South Dakota State leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2026 · South Dakota State won the last meeting
- 2026South Dakota State 57–14
The line, and the room
The model and the market don’t fully agree on South Dakota State’s chances here.
Home −42.5 · O/U 54.5
Conditions
70°F · 9 mph wind · Cloudy
South Dakota State is worth +6.3 points (±9.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 83rd percentile.
75% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (6–2 home, 7–8 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.0 at home vs. away over 53 games — inside the ±7.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,222 miles to get here.
New Haven 14 – South Dakota State 57
Called it — picked South Dakota State to win.
Recent games
South Dakota State
- Wk 1Wvs Stetson70-7
- Wk 1Lat Northwestern18-34
New Haven
- Wk 1Wvs Marist22-21
- Wk 1Lvs Stonehill3-21
Trajectory
South Dakota State handled New Haven 57-14, matching the pregame favorite.