Northwestern

2-0

Big Ten · David Braun, year 4 (21-19) · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium · 12,023 · 10,798 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#15 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #44 (+7.7) · FPI #33
The marketIndiana by 20.5at Indiana · our model 24% Northwestern · a number, not a pick

LastW 41–7 vs Colorado · Sat Sep 19 · Aidan Chiles 241 pass yds, 3 TD, 2 rush yds

Nextat Indiana · Fri Sep 25 · 8 pm ET · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana by 20.5 · series 47-36-1, lost the last 2 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3

Northwestern · 2026 schedule & results2-0
WkDateUsOppLineOpponentResultRecordConf
1Sep 6#14#105-14South Dakota StateW 34–18 1431-00-0
3Sep 19#11#142-3.5ColoradoW 41–7 1352-00-0
4Sep 26#15#6+20.5@Indiana
5Oct 3#15#30Penn State
6Oct 10Ball State
7Oct 17@Michigan State
8Oct 24Rutgers
9Oct 31@Oregon
10Nov 7Iowa
11Nov 14@Ohio State
12Nov 21@Minnesota
13Nov 28Illinois
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Explosive%Note
Sep 19ColoradoW 41–7423136:53+0.21548.0%104.4%
Sep 6South Dakota StateW 34–18497025:52+0.48050.9%148.5%
Season average (2 games)4600.5+0.34749.5%126.5%
Verdict Begins·Live

Northwestern is the academic outlier the Big Ten was never supposed to keep around — a private school playing out of a lakefront stadium-in-exile, and somehow David Braun keeps taking it bowling.

Title DroughtSince 2000 · 26 yrs

Every preseason the Wildcats are picked to finish last, and every few years they don't — and the fanbase has stopped expecting credit for it. They've learned to treat being underestimated as the…

low signal
Read the full program story ↓

The season in chapters

Weeks 1–32-0, all at homeW 41–7 vs Colorado · Sat Sep 19
Ahead
Fri Sep 25AP #5 Indianaat Indiana · on the road
Sat Nov 14AP #7 Ohio Stateat Ohio State · on the road
Sat Nov 28Land of Lincoln Trophyvs Illinois · at home

What fans said

Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown

What it is like to watch them2025 · 7-6 · last season

Game feel43rock fightscombined pts / game16th highest-scoring of 18 in the Big Ten
Heart rate3-3white-knucklein one-score games (6 of 13)2nd most one-score games of 18 in the Big Ten
Margin+3.5competitiveavg scoring margin11th best margin of 18 in the Big Ten
Tempo64average paceoffensive plays / game9th fastest of 18 in the Big Ten
Big plays1.17some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)13th most explosive of 18 in the Big Ten
Home crowd11,548avg attendance18th biggest crowds of 18 in the Big Ten

✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season

Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025

Northwestern has won four of its last five.

Warming. 6-4 over the last 10, and won the last three.

Streak W3Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 6-4
I enjoy seeing the investment they’re making in their facilities definitely shows their commitment to helping student-athletes succeed
McGee · On33 days after Northwestern's 2026 game against Colorado
The forecast

Next Sep 26

vs Indiana · away

Season line6.5 winsover +125
SoftMethodical, ball-controlSoft

✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total1 booksO/U 6.5
CFP championship#72 in field+70000
Big Ten title#16 in market+17500

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22

Northwestern · the story right now 4 storylines developing

What Northwestern's coordinator hires is really about

the open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?

coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew

David Braun's fourth season opens with a 7-6 record — the question is whether the coordinator reshaping can sustain momentum in a conference defined by academic-elite survival.

what happenedNorthwestern: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact

our readfront page

money down2025 cycle✓ factnew

Griffin Wilde is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.

our readdeveloping

underdog2025 cycle✓ factnew

Hayden Eligon II produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.

our readdeveloping

garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew

Caleb Komolafe: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.

our readbackground

How past storylines here turned out

Died downNorthwestern's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Outcome band · Northwestern · 2026

Northwestern's most likely season is 9-4 — a bowl game. The floor is 6-7; the ceiling is 11-2.

Floor6-7A bowl game, 3 fewer wins.
Base9-4A bowl game.
Ceiling11-2A bowl game, 2 more wins.

Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · Northwestern · Developing Confidence

Northwestern: coordinator change reshaping a unit.

bullish — but with real dissent where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers3 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 9% volume
The saga so far~6 months old
3 weeks agoNAIA Louisiana Christian has 936 students total. Their football team has 106. About 1 in 9 students are on the football team, and thats around 1 in 4 men. D1 Northwestern St loses to Louisiana Christian 37-42 — r/CFB
4 weeks agoNorthwestern names starting QB for Week 1 — Official
Mar 17QB Nicco Marchiol transfer commits from West Virginia — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
David Braun's fourth season opens with a 7-6 record — the question is whether the coordinator reshaping can sustain momentum in a conference defined by academic-elite survival.
Source of record: Northwestern: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards quiet
🎪The circus“Who Deserves Blame For Colorado Football Players' Embarrassing…” — the saga that won't quit.

The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.

“Who Deserves Blame For Colorado Football Players' Embarrassing Reaction To Ugly Loss At Northwestern?”
BroBible · 2026-09-20 · read ↗
📣Believers3 bullish items -- the case it's working.

The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.

“Six Colorado Buffaloes Rising and Falling After Northwestern Loss”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“Video, Quotes: Curt Cignetti reviews Western Kentucky win, previews Northwestern”
insidethehall.com · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
“Indiana coach Curt Cignetti sees Northwestern team 'very impressive in all three phases'”
IndyStar · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Northwestern debacle raises familiar questions for CU Buffs” — the real counter.

The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.

“Northwestern debacle raises familiar questions for CU Buffs”
Daily Camera · 2026-09-21 · read ↗
💬The boards9% of recent board volume — quieter than the headlines.

This event was in 160 of 1771 board posts (9%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.

"As an ex-Northwestern employee, I'm just curious. I was never on the UHC plan as a left before they kicked in but I'm just curious to see how they are. Apparently they aren't so ba"
r/Northwestern ~ fan take
"Chip Kelly and Aidan Chiles are my new dads, and Northwestern’s making the playoff"
r/CFB ~ fan take

The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.

Rival pulse

Illinois
Uneasy
-5
Land of Lincoln Trophy

Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data

More in this tab

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Northwestern is the Big Ten academic-elite program whose Pat Fitzgerald era produced 5 division titles + 2 Big Ten title games, and whose 2023 firing + Lake Michigan lakefront stadium era defined what Big Ten survival looks like.

Offense: SoftTempo: Methodical, ball-controlDefense: Soft
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.
RosterWho's gone, who's back, who replaces them.

Roster Reload - Northwestern

2026 snapshot - 2026-09-22
Returning Production88%High continuity
Talent Composite#60 nationally247 composite 688.3
Portal Additions17Primary repair: QB
Portal Losses8Primary pressure: S
Draft Loss2NFL Draft departures (2)
Recruiting Reload#52Development class
OTin 3 - Grant Seagren3.60out 2 - Hayden Wright3.49Upgrade
RBin 2 - Gavin Sawchuk3.60out 1 - Dashun Reeder3.40Even
current room: 204 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Balanced Back2025 profiledoes a little of everything without one standout trait
Former four-star
CBin 2 - Brenden Deasfernandes3.70out 1 - Evan Smith3.60Upgrade
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Centerfielder2025 profileerases the deep middle of the field
Transferred in
TEin 2 - Luke Dehnicke3.80out 1 - Hunter Welcing4.12Upgrade
current room: 238 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 2 - Dominic Kirks3.60out 1 - Anto Saka4.25Upgrade
QBin 2 - Aidan Chiles4.00out 0Need Filled
current room: 215 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Pocket Passer2025 profileMoney-downoperates within the system without forcing anything saves his best for the money downs
Transferred in
Full roster (144 players)
Offseason movesEvery addition and subtraction since the last snap.

The Offseason Ledger · Northwestern

4 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. News

    Northwestern names starting QB for Week 1

    Braun's got his answer at the most important position — Chiles running a Big Ten offense after that 50-spot SP+ jump makes Northwestern's ceiling conversation real, not just vibes.

    Aug 25Official
  2. Portal

    QB Nicco Marchiol transfer commits from West Virginia

    Big-12 quarterback chooses Evanston — Marchiol is the most experienced arm Northwestern has signed in years.

    Mar 17CFBD /player/portal
  3. News

    Aidan Chiles named Northwestern starter

    Braun needed a name under center before fall camp buzz faded — Chiles stepping into the room as Day 1 starter stabilizes a 50-spot SP+ jump that still needs a face.

    Aug 24Reported
  4. Recruiting

    Kyle Davis commits to Northwestern

    Safety room was already thin after two draft exits and no portal adds — Davis arriving with that velocity spike means Braun patched a pressure point before fall camp exposed it.

Who's movedWho's transferring in and out, right now.

Transfer portal snapshot

+19.3 net portal points
(raw ledger: +27.3 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
QB
+7.6
need filled
S
-4.3
low confidence
LB
+4.0
low confidence
RB
+3.7
OT
+3.6
CB
+3.6
DL
+3.5
low confidence
TE
+3.3
EDGE
+2.8
K
-1.5
LS
+1.0
low confidence
Top commits

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★★☆
Jaden McDuffie
WR · Edgewater, MD
#230 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 15 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
Owen Fors
IOL · Barrington, IL
#437 national
★★★☆☆
Jack Fuchs
OT · Hendersonville, TN
#554 national
Where they're fromWhere this class actually comes from, on the map.

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

22
IL · 5OH · 4TX · 3MO · 2PA · 2CA · 1MD · 1MI · 1+3 more

IL leads the 2026 class with 5 commits. National footprint reaching 11 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

81 signees across 23 states, 2023-2026. IL leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMN2WI1MI6NYMAORNVWYSDIAIL18IN1OH13PA2NJ2CT1CA4UTCONE1MO5KY1WVVAMD2DERIAZ3NMKSAR1TN2NC1SC2DCOKLAMSALGA2AKHITX8FL2
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles
Miles from homeHow far this roster travelled to get here.

Miles from home · 2026 roster

The median Northwestern player grew up 311 miles from campus.

Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.

68th-farthest from home in FBS of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%44–703 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi28%38 of 138 players
Farthest1,771 miChase Farrell · Thousand Oaks, CA
Closest4 miNikola Dugandzic · Winnetka, IL

Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Ryan Field. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 138 of 144 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

In-state shareHow much of this roster is home-grown.

Who owns IL · 2026 roster

27% of the Northwestern roster grew up in IL.

38 of 142 players, drawn from 29 states in all. That is the 81st-highest in-state share of 135 ranked FBS programs.

IL · 38OH · 20TX · 11MI · 8CA · 7AZ · 5IN · 5FL · 4+21 more

Where the 2026 roster is from

142 players across 29 states. Biggest pull outside IL: OH (20).

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMN3WI3MI8NYMAOR2NV1WYSD1IA2IL38IN5OH20PA3NJ3CT1CA7UTCO1NE2MO4KY1WVVAMD2DERIAZ5NMKS1AR2TN4NC2SCDCOK1LAMSAL1GA4AKHITX11FL4
Source CFB Zeitgeist · roster_entries (CFBD hometowns)
Every FBS roster ranked by in-state share →

Home state as listed on the CFBD roster. 2 listed players fall outside the 50 states and DC (international hometowns, or no state listed) and are excluded from the denominator. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] USC Defeats Northwestern 38-17
1,033 upvotes · Nov 2025
[Postgame Thread] Northwestern Defeats ULM 42-7
124 upvotes · Oct 2025
[Game Thread] Northwestern @ USC (9:00 PM ET)
112 upvotes · Nov 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

How it turned outHow an old class actually turned out, years on.
Class Autopsy
The 2023 class: 0 drafted so far, 90% never transferred. C
See the class →
Belief historyHow today's fan mood compares to the program's past.

Fan confidence higher than any point since 2021

89th percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. marketWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market
89th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(41st among FBS)
Fans 48pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 1 book
TakeawaysWhat this defense does once it gets the ball.
Takeaway conversion

Converting 16% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.

3 interceptions of 19 disrupted passes (16 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

The penalty battle is a wash: 17 penalties committed vs. 15 drawn on opponents.

121 penalty yards committed vs. 125 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

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