CFB Zeitgeist Score
54
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by rush tds at the 84th percentile.
Gavin Sawchuk
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
486 RUSH YDS · 8 RUSH TD · 109 CARRIES
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Northwestern
2025Florida State
2026Northwestern
RB · FLORIDA STATE · ACC
Gavin Sawchuk
- 3
- #27
- 5-11 | 202 lb
- Littleton, CO
Heisman Heat
#628
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2022–2025+363%
Up 363% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4-star | 0.9583 | No. 98 recruit | HighSchool | Oklahoma |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Florida State -> Northwestern | 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate |
| 2025 | Oklahoma -> Florida State | 3-star | 0.8700 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (486).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Oklahoma
Composite
0.9583
#98 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Gavin Sawchuk
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=3
- National · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Gavin Sawchuk
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Rushing WEPA per carry
+0.230
EPA
P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries
National rank #9 of 66
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame RBs, min 80 carries 88th
Why it matters
#9 of 66 P4 + Notre Dame RBs by rushing weighted- EPA per carry — +0.230 EPA/carry on 103 carries.
Vs cohort
This player +0.230 (88th)
MODERATE · n=103 cohort 66
- Also strong
- Yards per carry#51 / 69
- Rushing yards (total)#56 / 69
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 12g
486Rush yards
109Carries
8Rush TDs
Per game
40.5Rush yards
9Carries
1Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
526.5Rush yards
118Carries
9Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 486): needs 264/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 486): needs 514/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 486): needs 1,014/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 8): needs 2/game over remaining 1.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 8): needs 7/game over remaining 1.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 8): needs 12/game over remaining 1.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Gavin Sawchuk's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Florida State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
109 81st
YDS
486 77th
YPC
4.5 48th
TD
8 93rd
Receiving
REC
13 71st
YDS
121 77th
YPR
9.3 72nd
TD
1 89th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 31-17vs Alabama | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 1 | 14 | |
| Wk 2 | W 77-3vs East Texas A&M | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 2 | 11 | |
| Wk 4 | W 66-10vs Kent State | 11 | 97 | 8.8 | 2 | 40 | Season-high 97 yds |
| Wk 5 | L 38-46@ Virginia | 17 | 74 | 4.4 | 1 | 13 | |
| Wk 6 | L 22-28vs Miami | 11 | 47 | 4.3 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 7 | L 31-34vs Pittsburgh | 14 | 71 | 5.1 | 0 | 33 | |
| Wk 8 | L 13-20@ Stanford | 20 | 70 | 3.5 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 10 | W 42-7vs Wake Forest | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 2 | 5 | |
| Wk 11 | L 10-24@ Clemson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wk 12 | W 34-14vs Virginia Tech | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 13 | L 11-21@ NC State | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 14 | L 21-40@ Florida | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | 3 | |
| Total | 109 | 486 | 4.0 | 8 | 40 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Oklahoma6-7HC: Brent Venables · Run-leaning, fast tempo
2023Oklahoma10-3HC: Brent Venables · Balanced
2024Oklahoma6-7HC: Brent Venables · Run-leaning
2025Florida State5-7HC: Mike Norvell · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida State | 109 | 486 | 4.5 | 8 | -- |
| 2024 | Oklahoma | 39 | 128 | 3.3 | 1 | -- |
| 2023 | Oklahoma | 120 | 744 | 6.2 | 9 | -- |
| 2022 | Oklahoma | 17 | 105 | 6.2 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 285 | 1,463 | 5.1 | 19 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida State | 13 | 121 | 9.3 | 1 | -- |
| 2024 | Oklahoma | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | Oklahoma | 14 | 94 | 6.7 | 0 | -- |
| 2022 | Oklahoma | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 36 | 251 | 7.0 | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 486 | #168/735 | 77th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 8 | #51/739 | 93rd pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.5 | #383/735 | 48th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 13 | #160/552 | 71st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 121 | #129/548 | 77th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.23 | #35/362 | 91st pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 103 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 14.7% | #186/738 | 75th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 109 | #140/739 | 81st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 40 | #233/733 | 68th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 53 | #40/540 | 93rd pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 9.3 | #152/548 | 72nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 1 | #60/552 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 22.2% | #227/738 | 69th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 17.6% | #176/738 | 76th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 16.7% | #50/738 | 93rd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 14.5% | #192/738 | 74th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 14.4% | #239/738 | 68th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 7.9% | #300/738 | 59th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 4.9% | #165/738 | 78th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #78/256 | 70th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 42.7 | 4.7 | 1.0 |
| Road5g | 37.4 | 3.0 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 36.2 | 4.7 | 1.4 |
| Losses7g | 43.6 | 3.5 | 0.1 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 58.7 | 5.3 | 1.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 22.3 | 2.7 | 0.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
54Mid-pack
Elite: rush tds (84th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.23High (p75–p90) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Gavin SawchukFlorida StateTae MeadowsTroy· 83% simSeth McGowanKentucky· 82% simSire GainesBoise State· 78% sim
Rush TDs
Rec yards
Carries
Receptions
Rush yards
Fumbles lost
Long run
Yards / carry
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to TJ Green’s 2021 season.
TJ Green
74%match
#2
Nelson Smith
63%
#3
Ulysses Bentley IV
All-AAC
66%
#4
Jalen Buckley
All-MAC
66%
#5
Daijun Edwards
61%
Matches TJ on
Receiving share
Class year
Yards / carry
Differs from TJ on
Rush TD rate (higher)
Yards / reception (higher)
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Asim Rose’s path through Kentucky.
Asim Rose
94%match
#2
Cooper Wallace
94%
#3
Calvin Turner
All-Mountain West
91%
#4
Julius Loughridge
91%
#5
Corey Taylor II
91%
Matches Asim on
Yards per carry
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Camryn Edwards's senior season at UConn (2025).
Camryn Edwards
72%match
#2
Thomas Castellanos
All-ACC
64%
#3
Ty Son Lawton
67%
#4
Frank Harris
All-AAC
62%
#5
Daijun Edwards
65%
Matches Camryn on
Receiving share
Yards / carry
Weight
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Mike Norvell
Pass share
40.3%
339 pass / 502 run
Plays / game
70.1
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
8.5%
282 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Mike Norvell
Florida State
2023
Mike Norvell
Florida State
2024
Mike Norvell
Florida State
2025
Mike Norvell
Florida State
Played his entire career under Mike Norvell.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownLittleton, CO
Height5'11"
Weight202 lb
Class3
PositionRB
Jersey27
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamFlorida State
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida State | ACC | RB | 3 | No. 27 | 5-11 | 202 lb | Littleton, CO |
| 2024 | Oklahoma | SEC | RB | 3 | No. 27 | 5-11 | 202 lb | Littleton, CO |
| 2023 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | RB | 3 | No. 27 | 5-11 | 202 lb | Littleton, CO |
| 2022 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | RB | 3 | No. 27 | 5-11 | 202 lb | Littleton, CO |