Northwestern 34-13 Penn State (Oct 2, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Penn State · Northwestern

Penn State3-213

Northwestern3-134Final

Fri, Oct 2 · Ryan Field, Evanston, Ill. · Crowd 35,000

Northwestern beat No. 22 Penn State 34-13.

We had Northwestern favored. It won.

Next: Penn State lost to USC 31-23, Sat Oct 10

Next: Northwestern beat Ball State 45-14, Sat Oct 10

Top comment in the game thread

MORE MOVES THAN A MILITARY FAMILY 😭😭

Q4 14:53 · r/CFB game thread · Fri, Oct 2

How it swung

The turning point: Chiles 2-yd TD run, Northwestern leads 10-0 (Q1, 5:07). Northwestern went from 62% to 80% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Northwestern a 63% chance, and the closing betting line (Northwestern was a 3-point underdog) put it at 40%.

Favored the whole way: Northwestern never fell below 50%.

Penn State never had better than a 49% chance.

Specialist touchdown

Northwestern · Q2 1:55

FinalNorthwestern 34-13 Penn StateNorthwestern wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 5:07Chiles 2-yd TD run, Northwestern leads 10-0Northwestern 62% → 80% (+18)
2Q2 9:21Himon 38-yd TD run, Northwestern leads 17-7Northwestern 62% → 79% (+17)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 5:07Chiles 2-yd TD run, Northwestern leads 10-0Penn State 38% → 20% (−18)
2Q2 9:21Himon 38-yd TD run, Northwestern leads 17-7Penn State 38% → 21% (−17)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q4 14:53Fans react to broadcast quote comparing Becht to military familyQuoted at the top of the page.“More moves than a military family” RG3… what are you saying? Lolr/CFB game thread

Northwestern’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Penn State -3), at 51% for Northwestern (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Northwestern or Penn State flair (507 and 1,649); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Northwestern’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Northwestern scored on 6 of its 13 drives; Penn State on 2 of its 12.

Northwestern’s drives are teal, Penn State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Penn State’s side

Penn State’s best moment: Hansen 8-yd TD run, cuts it to 10-7 (Q2 10:39). It lifted Penn State’s win chance by 15 points.

How Penn State fans took it: “IVE NEVER SEEN A FIFTH YEAR QB SO ADDICTED TO THROWING INTO DOUBLE AND TRIPLE COVERAGE BRO. ARE WE SURE THIS GUY DOESNT HAVE CTE OR A LOBOTOMY BRO?” r/CFB game thread

“I am having a good time”

A Northwestern fan

How fans reacted

Quiet

Fans had the most to say in the second quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was quiet; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Northwestern fans

student“Hearing praise for the Northwestern student fanbase on national television?! I’m getting old because I never thought I would see the day”

students“Fewer. 8k undergrad. There are 5k there tonight (though there are several hundred grad students apparently)”

loud“I loved the stadium announcer saying "Let's make this library loud!" in the pregame.”

crazy“wow that's so crazy that asking a WR to throw the ball on the run didn't work out”

Penn State fans

becht“For a dude with a billion college starts Rocco Becht just looks inexperienced.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: new, now, run, ball.

What it cost

Penn State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 1% to 0%.

Make the playoff

Penn State · lost1% → ▼0%

Northwestern · won6% → ▲7%

Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Northwestern 34, Penn State 13

Northwestern covered +3 by 24. The total, 47, went over 46.5.

Team totals	Penn State	Northwestern
Total yards	291	506
Passing	26 of 41, 243 yds	10 of 14, 93 yds
Rushing	22 for 48 yds	55 for 413 yds
First downs	20	25
Third down	5 of 14	5 of 12
Fourth down	1 of 1	0 of 1
Turnovers	2	1
Penalties	5 for 60 yds	7 for 78 yds
Time of possession	23:55	36:05

Penn State leaders

Passing Rocco Becht 26 of 41, 243 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Carson Hansen 4 for 19 yds, 1 TD; James Peoples 8 for 13 yds
Receiving Chase Sowell 5 for 68 yds, 1 TD; Benjamin Brahmer 5 for 45 yds

Northwestern leaders

Passing Aidan Chiles 10 of 14, 93 yds
Rushing Caleb Komolafe 25 for 188 yds, 1 TD; Joseph Himon II 10 for 162 yds, 2 TD
Receiving Griffin Wilde 2 for 36 yds; Drew Wagner 4 for 19 yds

No rain through the game

58° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 63°, with about 7 in 10 games between 55° and 72°.

Game-day temperatures at Ryan Field

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 5:07 left7:39 p.m.

Penn State 0, Northwestern 10 · Northwestern 80% to win

no rain · 55°

Chiles 2-yd TD run, Northwestern leads 10-0

Measured at Palwaukee airport, 12 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Penn State · 3-1

Rated 46th in our preseason ratings, 32nd now, up 14 spots.

3-1 in its last 4, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

L 20-24 vs Wisconsin #66 of 668

lost by 4 as a 9.5-point favorite

W 55-13 vs Buffalo #145 of 668

won by 42 as a 39.5-point favorite

W 27-9 @ Temple #90 of 668

won by 18 as a 24.5-point favorite

W 45-0 vs Marshall #24 of 668

won by 45 as a 23.5-point favorite

Last three games

Northwestern · 2-1

Rated 14th in our preseason ratings, 13th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 23-29 @ IndianaTop 25 #6 of 668

lost by 6 as a 20.5-point underdog

W 41-7 vs Colorado #126 of 668

won by 34 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 34-18 vs South Dakota State #104 of 668

won by 16 as a 14-point favorite

Week by week

Northwestern

Wk 1Wvs South Dakota State34-18
Wk 3Wvs Colorado41-7
Wk 4Lat Indiana23-29

Penn State

Wk 1Wvs Marshall45-0
Wk 2Wat Temple27-9
Wk 3Wvs Buffalo55-13
Wk 4Lvs Wisconsin20-24

Power rating by week

Northwestern is rated 3.3 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Northwestern’s rushing EPA against Penn State, 69 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Northwestern’s rushing EPA against Penn State’s defense
Northwestern offense, 82nd percentile · Penn State defense, 13th
Penn State’s explosive plays against Northwestern’s defense
Penn State offense, 32nd percentile · Northwestern defense, 87th
Northwestern’s EPA/play against Penn State’s defense
Northwestern offense, 89th percentile · Penn State defense, 47th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Penn StateNorthwestern

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Penn State leads the series 16-6

22 meetings since 1993 · Northwestern won the last meeting

2025Northwestern 22-21
2023Penn State 41-13
2022Penn State 17-7
2017Penn State 31-7
2015Northwestern 23-21

Each line is Northwestern’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Northwestern fans are feeling it about like the typical fanbase this week (55th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Penn State favored by 3 · Total 46.5

How games like this usually go

Penn State by 3, on the usual path until Q2 10:23

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Northwestern.

The total fell 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Northwestern is worth +5.3 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 71st percentile.

52% at home, 35% on the road against FBS opponents (21-19 home, 14-26 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.9 at home vs. away over 85 games — inside the ±6.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 516 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Northwestern 22, Penn State 21Oct 11, 2025

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2015.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Northwestern16th0-1
Penn State15th0-1

Full Big Ten standings

Northwestern upsets No. 22 Penn State 34-13