CFB Zeitgeist

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VERDICT BEGINS · 2026

Big Ten

The Coast-to-Coast Era

The 2026 Big Ten season is underway — Ohio State holds the early power lead, but the picture is still open.

Big Ten carries real selection-room weight with 6 teams inside the top 25 and Ohio State driving a legitimate national ceiling.

#2overall
#2in FBS
+21.8RR50
+26.4upper strength
18teams
6top-25 teams
Power snapshot Projected 2026 standing

The Coast-to-Coast Era

Indiana's 16-0 run in 2025 ended an eleven-year conference championship drought and gave the Big Ten its first national title since 2002. The coast-to-coast expansion delivered both the talent depth and the schedule credibility to put Indiana on a pedestal nobody predicted. Now the question is whether that ceiling is repeatable.

6 top-25 teams.

The depth argument for this conference rests on how many credible opponents are clustered behind the leader. A wide talent spread separates the haves from the have-nots.

Where things stand right now.

The 2026 Big Ten season is underway — Ohio State holds the early power lead, but the picture is still open.

Tools Matchup Simulator Compare Teams Playoff Forecast Style map Head to head Power map

Indiana Enters 2026 With a Target on Its Back

Indiana went 16-0 in 2025 — regular season, conference title, and national championship. They return as the highest-rated program in the conference and the CFP's defending champion. Every schedule-maker circled their name. The question is whether Indiana can meet a higher standard of opponent preparation in Year 2.

Why it matters →

Oregon Is Built for a Deep CFP Run

Oregon holds the conference's second-highest power rating entering 2026 and carries the clearest path to a first-round bye among non-Indiana programs. Dan Lanning's program is the Big Ten's argument that West Coast expansion raised the conference ceiling — and the most likely challenger to Indiana's title defense.

Why it matters →

Ohio State's Title Window Is Still Open

Ohio State has reached the CFP in three of the last four seasons and still hasn't won it all since 2014. Ryan Day's roster is talented enough to compete — the question is whether they can close the gap against elite competition when it matters most.

Why it matters →

Active arcs our read

All arcs →
Fan pulse Last 30 days · 38,564 mentions
18% positive 44% neutral 38% negative
Michigan
8,517
↓ negative
Ohio State
7,411
↓ negative
Nebraska
5,296
→ neutral
Oregon
4,540
↓ negative
Penn State
2,844
↓ negative
Washington
1,451
↓ negative
Fan confidence — FBS percentile

Where each Big Ten program stands nationally in fan sentiment (100th = most positive in FBS, 0 = least). Conference median: 41st percentile.

Northwestern
Bullish+19
UCLA
Bullish+18
Nebraska
Leaning+8
Purdue
Leaning+11
Minnesota
Leaning+2
Iowa
Mixed
Penn State
Mixed+8
Illinois
Mixed+5
Michigan
Mixed+14
Indiana
Mixed-3
Maryland
Souring-3
Rutgers
Souring-2
USC
Souring-9
Ohio State
Souring-4
Washington
Souring
Oregon
Souring-11
Wisconsin
Souring-6

Most volatile: Maryland

Fan confidence has swung 66 percentile points in the last 8 weeks — currently at the 20th percentile nationally.

Rivalry face-offs

The coaching premium
Recruiting class rank vs. SP+ performance — where coaches add or subtract value
Above line = coaching premium
Below line = underperforming
Gap = recruiting rank minus SP+ rank

Positive gap means the coaching staff won more than the recruiting class predicted. Data: Big Ten teams, 18 programs.

Coaching grades
Coaching premium ↑
Nebraska
+55
Northwestern
+37
Penn St.
+35
Indiana
+23
UCLA
+17
Underperforming ↓
Mich. St.
-79
Purdue
-62
Rutgers
-55
Illinois
-48
USC
-28

Standings

2026 season, in progress — sorted by power rating. Stature tag = interim Zeitgeist calibration (medium confidence).

#TeamRecordRR50Resume
1 Ohio StateBlue Blood#2 2-1 +32.7 +63.7
2 OregonPower Program I#6 2-1 +30.1 +9.9
3 IndianaPower Program II#18 3-0 +29.1 +94.0
4 NorthwesternNational Program III#61 2-0 +26.0 +78.4
5 IowaPower Program III#23 3-0 +25.4 +81.7
6 MichiganBlue Blood#5 3-0 +24.9 +99.7
7 USCPower Program I#13 4-0 +23.9 +99.3
8 Penn StatePower Program I#11 3-0 +23.6 +98.5
9 WashingtonPower Program II#15 3-0 +23.5 +97.0
10 NebraskaNational Program II#41 3-0 +23.4 +95.8
11 UCLANational Program I#38 3-0 +21.4 +98.7
12 MinnesotaNational Program I#40 2-1 +21.3 +51.7
13 MarylandNational Program III#71 2-1 +19.7 +75.7
14 IllinoisNational Program II#44 2-1 +18.2 +80.7
15 WisconsinPower Program III#31 2-1 +17.6 +91.5
16 RutgersRegional Program II#89 0-3 +16.7 +12.9
17 PurdueRegional Program III#97 1-2 +14.0 +69.1
18 Michigan StateNational Program II#59 2-1 +13.6 +97.2

Projected Standings · Big Ten · 2026

Win Projection

Odds of winning at least N conference games from current power ratings — full slate played out, not locked to results. AVG = expected wins; W–L = most-likely record.

# Team W–L PWR AVG ≥9≥8≥7≥6≥5≥4≥3≥2≥1
Favorites
1Ohio State6–3+10.26.13164169889799
2Oregon6–3+7.66.02133664859699
3Indiana6–3+6.65.82103158829499
4Northwestern5–4+3.55.03133563859699
Challengers
5Penn State5–4+1.15.14164067879799
6Iowa5–4+2.95.04153764869699
7Michigan5–4+2.44.82113158829599
8Washington5–4+1.04.62102753789399
9USC4–5+1.44.5282449759198
The Field
10UCLA5–4-1.14.82113058819599
11Nebraska4–5+0.94.5282450759298
12Maryland4–5-2.84.3161943708998
13Minnesota4–5-1.24.1151840668797
14Illinois3–6-4.33.5282450769399
Rebuilding
15Wisconsin4–5-4.94.0141536628596
16Rutgers3–6-5.83.4272246739299
17Purdue3–6-8.52.931231598497
18Michigan State3–6-8.92.831129578397

How they play

Six advanced-stat dimensions per team, ranked against all 134 FBS programs, 2026 season. Every column reads higher-is-better. Click a column to sort.

ScoringConvertsBig playsDefensePacePass rate
Team ScoringConvertsBig playsDefensePacePass rate Identity
Ohio State+0.3650.2%+1.36+0.2167.048.3%Lockdown defense
Oregon+0.2746.2%+1.47+0.1672.050.9%Lockdown defense
Indiana+0.5051.8%+1.47+0.2258.032.8%Lockdown defense
Northwestern+0.3549.5%+1.26+0.0164.035.9%Balanced
Iowa+0.2347.5%+1.18+0.2167.046.3%Lockdown defense
Michigan+0.2042.1%+1.28+0.1458.738.6%Lockdown defense
USC+0.3655.9%+1.16-0.0969.546.8%Efficient offense
Penn State+0.3447.2%+1.33+0.0766.740.0%Balanced
Washington+0.2046.7%+1.13+0.1666.756.0%Lockdown defense
Nebraska+0.4951.7%+1.47-0.0570.342.6%Big-play offense
UCLA+0.3552.2%+1.25-0.1066.738.5%Efficient offense
Minnesota+0.1549.1%+1.08+0.0266.056.6%No explosive plays
Maryland+0.3552.6%+1.25-0.0273.355.9%Efficient offense
Illinois+0.3554.9%+1.21-0.1056.048.8%Grind-it-out
Wisconsin+0.2144.2%+1.38+0.0159.048.0%Balanced
Rutgers+0.1044.1%+1.41-0.2266.751.0%Defense is the problem
Purdue+0.3549.1%+1.32-0.3071.749.8%Defense is the problem
Michigan State+0.0743.3%+1.12-0.1766.339.2%Balanced

Identity is the single dimension where a team is most above or below the FBS average (pace, defense, big plays, or converting drives) — "Balanced" means nothing stands out either way. CFBD 2026 advanced stats, excludes garbage time.

Top players

Big Ten's highest CFB Index Scores, 2025 season.

#PlayerTeamNational
1John NestorCBMinnesota#2 of 364
2Jeremiah SmithWROhio State#1 of 485
3Teitum TuiotiLBOregon#4 of 583
4Rolijah HardyLBIndiana#6 of 583
5Anthony SmithEDGEMinnesota#9 of 420
6Isaiah JonesLBIndiana#13 of 583
7Jayden MaiavaQBUSC#4 of 146
8Tyrique TuckerEDGEIndiana#18 of 420
9Bishop FitzgeraldSUSC#14 of 544
10Julian SayinQBOhio State#5 of 146

Where Big Ten stands nationally

Conference strength by RR50 (round-robin adjusted power).

1 SEC SEC
+23.0
2 B10 Big Ten
+21.8
3 IND FBS Independents
+20.5
4 P12 Pac-12
+20.0
5 B12 Big 12
+20.0
6 ACC ACC
+19.4
7 AAC American Athletic
+17.6
8 SB Sun Belt
+17.2
9 CUSA Conference USA
+16.7
10 MAC Mid-American
+16.2