Big Ten · Pat Fitzgerald, year 1 (2-1) · Spartan Stadium · 75,005 · 71,397 avg in 2026
LastL 10–27 at Notre Dame · Sat Sep 19 · Isaac Smith 1 sacks, 1 TFL, 1 tackles
Nextvs Nebraska · Sat Sep 26 · 5 pm ET · Spartan Stadium · Nebraska by 5.5 · series 4-10, last win 2023 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #170 | #48 | -10= | Toledo | W 30–20 124 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #157 | #101 | -17.5✓ | Eastern Michigan | W 35–7 123 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #156 | #2 | +28.5✓ | @Notre Dame | L 10–27 112 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #132 | #33 | +5.5 | Nebraska | |||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #131 | #78 | @Wisconsin | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Illinois | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Northwestern | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @UCLA | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Michigan | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Washington | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Oregon | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Rutgers |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | @Notre Dame | L 10–27 | 167 | 2 | 22:58 | -0.105 | 37.5% | 109.7% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | Eastern Michigan | W 35–7 | 472 | 1 | 31:21 | +0.299 | 54.8% | 116.4% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Toledo | W 30–20 | 397 | 0 | 43:16 | +0.023 | 37.6% | 109.7% | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (3 games) | 345 | 1.0 | +0.072 | 43.3% | 111.9% | ||||
Michigan State is the program that knocks off the giant down the road when no one sees it coming — and is now on its third coach of the decade, betting Pat Fitzgerald can rebuild the chip into a contender again.
The fanbase measures itself against the program 60 miles west and savors every upset of it — the conviction that Michigan State is at its truest when it walks in unranked and walks out with the…
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 4-8 · last season
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Mixed. 3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
I think it goes back to what coach always preaches, right? There’s a standard we’re trying to play and that standard is perfection and to play to the best of our capabilities
Next Sep 26
vs Nebraska · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
the open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Fitzgerald, who led Northwestern to a 9-4 record, inherits a 4-8 roster at Michigan State — the program that beat Michigan when nobody else thought to, now tasked with steadying.
our readdeveloping
Fitzgerald, who previously coached at Northwestern, inherits a 4-8 losing record at Michigan State — a program that once beat Michigan, now grappling with uncertainty.
our readdeveloping
Michigan State enters 2025 at No. 82 in SP+ — the 8-spot jump is real, but 4-8 and Smith's second year raise the question of sustaining momentum.
our readbackground
Jonathan Smith's first full season at Michigan State ended with a 4-8 record, but the win total projection climbs to 4.5 in his second year.
our readdeveloping
Elijah Tau-Tolliver gets meaningfully MORE work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict, mostly in real, competitive games -- not just mop-up snaps.
our readdeveloping
Pat Fitzgerald inherits a 4-8 losing record at Michigan State, a program known for beating Michigan, as the fanbase remains uneasy about his ability to shift its identity.
our readdeveloping
Jack Velling is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Nick Marsh: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
our readbackground
Outcome band · Michigan State · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Michigan State enters 2025 rated No. 82 in SP+ (-3.4), up 8 spots from 2024. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The coverage is thin. Quiet preseasons end two ways.
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 742 of 4687 board posts (16%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (681 posts): 29% positive · 34% neutral · 37% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 490 of 4687 board posts (10%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (681 posts): 29% positive · 34% neutral · 37% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Michigan State is the program that beat Michigan when nobody else thought to.
The program ledger
since 2025QB1 named at new school
Aidan Chiles landing at Northwestern as QB1 is the first hard proof of what Spartan fans already knew — Fitzgerald inherited a roster mid-exodus, not a program mid-rise.
Michigan State freshman WR suspended indefinitely
Fitzgerald barely has the playbook laminated and now a freshman wideout is suspended indefinitely — a WR room already thin after two draft departures can't afford a headcount problem in year one.
WR Elmore suspended indefinitely
A suspended WR stings a room already thin — with two draft departures and a class ranked 45th, Fitzgerald's offense can't afford bodies disappearing before camp even opens.
Rodney Bullard Jr. granted eligibility
Bullard's eligibility win isn't just good news — it's OT pressure relief for a Fitzgerald rebuild that can't afford to patch a WR room running thin while two draft spots still echo.
Former Spartan dismissed by new team
Fitzgerald's Dantonio-era revival hits a roster footnote — a former Spartan dismissed elsewhere doesn't move the needle on a depth chart still thin at OT and rebuilding from two draft exits.
Kohler transfers to BYU for fifth year
Fitzgerald's OT room already under pressure with two draft departures and a #45 class behind it — Kohler heading to Provo is subtraction MSU can't easily absorb at that spot.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
MI leads the 2026 class with 5 commits. National footprint reaching 11 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
87 signees across 24 states, 2023-2026. MI leads the pull.
That is 10.0% of every high-school FBS signee MI produced over those cycles — second only to Central Michigan, 11 signees back. The full map →
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Michigan State player grew up 412 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Spartan Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 110 of 112 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
55th percentile among FBS programs
10% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~19% league average, and due for more.
1 interceptions of 10 disrupted passes (9 deflected, 1 intercepted), 2026 only.
10 penalties committed, 13 drawn on opponents — a near-even trade all season.
105 penalty yards committed vs. 81 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · Michigan State · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026