Nebraska 31-13 Michigan State (Sep 26, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Nebraska · Michigan State

Nebraska4-031

Michigan State2-213Final

Sat, Sep 26 · Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Mich. · Crowd 68,161BTN

Nebraska beat Michigan State 31-13.

We had Nebraska favored. It won.

Next: Nebraska beat Maryland 48-23, Sat Oct 3

Next: Michigan State lost to Wisconsin 31-3, Sat Oct 3

Top comment in the game thread

If the Nebraska catch was a TD, then the same logic should be applied

Q3 6:01 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Cunanan 32-yd field goal, Nebraska leads 17-3 (Q2, 10:00). Nebraska went from 83% to 63% to win. Fans right then: “" they should play fancher more." Takes a sack, then throws a pick 😑” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Nebraska a 79% chance, and the closing betting line (Nebraska was a 6-point favorite) put it at 69%.

Nebraska won by 18, after dipping to 39% in the first quarter.

Michigan State never had better than a 61% chance.

Blocked field goalQ3 1:27

FinalNebraska 31-13 Michigan StateNebraska wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 1:45Colandrea 44-yd TD pass to Gilmer, Nebraska goes ahead 7-3Nebraska 51% → 63% (+12)
2Q2 10:00Cunanan 32-yd field goal, Nebraska leads 17-3Nebraska 83% → 63% (−20)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 1:45Colandrea 44-yd TD pass to Gilmer, Nebraska goes ahead 7-3Michigan State 49% → 37% (−12)
2Q2 10:00Cunanan 32-yd field goal, Nebraska leads 17-3Michigan State 17% → 37% (+20)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 11:11Fancher throws interception to Chambliss as MSU injury crisis dominates thread" they should play fancher more." Takes a sack, then throws a pick 😑r/CFB game thread
Q2 6:00Michigan State fans rage as officials flag Soares for unsportsmanlike conduct on Colandrea passThis is college football, what could he have said that was so egregious that it deserved that flag? Come on.r/CFB game thread
Q3 8:43A quarterback was sacked and fumbled the ball, which was recovered by his own team.the sack and the recovery is crazyr/CFB game thread
Q3 6:01Officials overturn Savoury catch, sparking outrage over inconsistent rulingQuoted at the top of the page.Well I don't know about that one. I could see the call going either way but I'd be furious if I were a Michigan State fan after that TD earlier.r/CFB game thread

Nebraska’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Nebraska -6), at 57% for Nebraska (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Michigan State or Nebraska flair (1,176 and 1,777); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Nebraska’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Nebraska scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Michigan State on 3 of its 10.

Nebraska’s drives are teal, Michigan State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Michigan State’s side

Michigan State’s best moment: Cunanan 32-yd field goal, Nebraska leads 17-3 (Q2 10:00). It lifted Michigan State’s win chance by 20 points.

How Michigan State fans took it: “That’s just because he in fact is a fake and a fraud.” r/CFB game thread

“1 yard of offense per play is also three feet of offense per play. Think about that, three whole feet!”

A Michigan State fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans had the most to say in the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Nebraska fans

management“Rhule clock management will lose us a game mark my words but thank god it worked out this time”

clock“"We're not doing anything with the clock" - important information in this new Big 10 era”

Michigan State fans

refs“Unreal for that call. Totally unreal. Talk about taking the game over refs. Lol”

smith“I stuck with Smith until he kept awh shucking with the refs. Probably he is a decent coach at the right program.”

ref“Was it for tossing the ball at the ref or did they flag the other player?”

ground“You can clearly see the ball jostle and roll over after it hits the ground lmao. Whatever man.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: catch, call, ball, injuries.

What it cost

Nebraska’s chance to make the playoff rose from 12% to 14%.

Make the playoff

Nebraska · won12% → ▲14%

Michigan State · lost0% → 0%

Win the conference

Nebraska · won4% → ▲5%

Michigan State · lost0% → 0%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Nebraska 31, Michigan State 13

Nebraska covered −6 by 12. The total, 44, stayed under 48.5.

Team totals	Nebraska	Michigan State
Total yards	369	257
Passing	15 of 27, 212 yds	19 of 28, 218 yds
Rushing	41 for 157 yds	32 for 39 yds
First downs	22	22
Third down	6 of 13	3 of 8
Fourth down	0 of 2	0 of 0
Turnovers	0	3
Penalties	7 for 60 yds	5 for 60 yds
Time of possession	30:19	29:41

Nebraska leaders

Passing Anthony Colandrea 15 of 27, 212 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Anthony Colandrea 10 for 66 yds; Mekhi Nelson 15 for 61 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Kwazi Gilmer 4 for 101 yds, 1 TD; Quinn Clark 2 for 34 yds

Michigan State leaders

Passing Alessio Milivojevic 18 of 26, 208 yds, 1 INT
Rushing Jaziun Patterson 16 for 54 yds, 1 TD; Camryn Edwards 4 for 16 yds
Receiving Chrishon Mccray 4 for 47 yds; Fredrick Moore 4 for 43 yds

No rain and calm

70° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the north-northeast, gusts to 14

September game-day temperatures at Spartan Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Second quarter, 10:00 left6:12 p.m.

Nebraska 17, Michigan State 3 · Michigan State 37% to win

no rain · wind 7 mph from the north · 68°

Cunanan 32-yd field goal, Nebraska leads 17-3

Measured at Lansing airport, 6.0 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Nebraska · 3-0

Rated 40th in our preseason ratings, 33rd now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 34-7 vs North Dakota #110 of 668

won by 27 as a 27.5-point favorite

W 56-7 vs Bowling Green #135 of 668

won by 49 as a 30.5-point favorite

W 49-21 vs Ohio #48 of 668

won by 28 as a 23.5-point favorite

Last three games

Michigan State · 2-1

Rated 170th in our preseason ratings, 132nd now, up 38 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 10-27 @ Notre DameTop 25 #3 of 668

lost by 17 as a 28.5-point underdog

W 35-7 vs Eastern Michigan #122 of 668

won by 28 as a 17.5-point favorite

W 30-20 vs Toledo #50 of 668

won by 10 as a 10-point favorite

Week by week

Michigan State

Wk 1Wvs Toledo30-20
Wk 2Wvs Eastern Michigan35-7
Wk 3Lat Notre Dame10-27

Nebraska

Wk 1Wvs Ohio49-21
Wk 2Wvs Bowling Green56-7
Wk 3Wvs North Dakota34-7

Power rating by week

Nebraska is rated 9.8 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Nebraska’s explosive plays against Michigan State, 84 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Nebraska’s explosive plays against Michigan State’s defense
Nebraska offense, 93rd percentile · Michigan State defense, 9th
Nebraska’s EPA/play against Michigan State’s defense
Nebraska offense, 83rd percentile · Michigan State defense, 11th
Michigan State’s passing EPA against Nebraska’s defense
Michigan State offense, 18th percentile · Nebraska defense, 92nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

NebraskaMichigan State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Nebraska leads the series 10-4

14 meetings since 1914 · Nebraska won the last meeting

2025Nebraska 38-27
2023Michigan State 20-17
2021Michigan State 23-20
2018Nebraska 9-6
2015Nebraska 39-38

Each line is Michigan State’s chance to win through that meeting. Michigan State is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Nebraska fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (62nd among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Nebraska favored by 6 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

Nebraska by 6, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Nebraska.

The total fell 4 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Mild and dry. Feels like 67° at kickoff.

Nebraska at Michigan State · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Spartan Stadium, East Lansing

67°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
100weather score, Ideal

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed.

noon: 100, Ideal
12:45 pm: 100, Ideal
2 pm: 100, Ideal
3:30 pm: 100, Ideal
4 pm: 100, Ideal
5 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
6 pm: 100, Ideal
7 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 26, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Michigan State is worth +2.8 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 27th percentile.

53% at home, 32% on the road against FBS opponents (27-24 home, 13-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -6.2 at home vs. away over 96 games — outside the ±5.7 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

The visitors travel about 643 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Michigan State 23, Nebraska 20Sep 25, 2021

Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2015.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Michigan State7th0-0
Nebraska10th0-0

Full Big Ten standings

Nebraska beats Michigan State 31-13