Nebraska beats North Dakota 34-7

North Dakota3-17
Nebraska3-034Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE), Lincoln, Neb. · Crowd 86,217BTN

Nebraska beat North Dakota 34-7.

We had Nebraska favored. It won.

Top comment in the game thread

I'm mid-poop but I hear our fight song playing from the living room. Good for us

Q1 1:30 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 19

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Nebraska an 87% chance, and the closing betting line (Nebraska was a 27.5-point favorite) put it at 99%.

Nebraska led by 14 after the first quarter and by 17 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+27+27

Favored the whole way: Nebraska never fell below 96%.

North Dakota never had better than a 3% chance.

FinalNebraska 34-7 North DakotaNebraska wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4NebraskaWon34-7ScoresChatter4 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute0 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute5 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute6 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute5 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute5 comments a minute4 comments a minute5 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute5 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4NebraskaWon34-7ScoresChatter4 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute0 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute5 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute6 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute5 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute5 comments a minute4 comments a minute5 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute5 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4NebraskaLowest 0%Lost7-34ScoresChatter4 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute0 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute5 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute6 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute5 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute5 comments a minute4 comments a minute5 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute5 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4NebraskaLowest 0%Lost7-34ScoresChatter4 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute4 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute0 comments a minute3 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute5 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute6 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute3 comments a minute5 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute5 comments a minute4 comments a minute5 comments a minute2 comments a minute4 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute0 comments a minute5 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute1 comments a minute2 comments a minute2 comments a minute1 comments a minute

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 10:31Colandrea runs for a touchdown as Nebraska fans praise his mobilityRaiola definitely aint doing thatr/CFB game threadRaiola would have been sacked for a loss therer/CFB game thread
  2. Q1 6:48Nebraska fans mock Barney's punt return and discuss upcoming conference challengesBarney's gonna get sent to the Shadow Realm one of these days with those punt returnsr/CFB game thread
  3. Q1 1:30Nebraska fans celebrate Jamal Rule's touchdown run extending the lead to 14-0Quoted at the top of the page.Granted the level of competition, but we haven't looked this efficient in a while.r/CFB game thread
  4. Q2 2:33Fans mock the broadcast's excessive commercials and political adsAll that money but no sense to get Invisalignr/CFB game thread
  5. Q3 13:57Rule rushes 55 yards for touchdown, extending Nebraska lead to 24-7We should have called that touchdown play every drive in the first half.r/CFB game thread
  6. Q3 6:24Nebraska fans debate holding penalty rules and Matt Rhule's strategy after Kaminski incompleteDid they just drop the holding penalty in college football?r/CFB game thread
Nebraska’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Nebraska -27.5), at 97% for Nebraska (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Every drive

Nebraska scored on 6 of its 10 drives; North Dakota on 1 of its 11.

Nebraska’s drives are teal, North Dakota’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Nebraska: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Dakota: Punt, from 80 yards out to 54PuntNebraska: Touchdown, from 90 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Dakota: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 36DownsQ2Nebraska: Missed field goal, from 64 yards out to 36Missed FGNorth Dakota: Punt, from 64 yards out to 61PuntNebraska: Punt, from 88 yards out to 83PuntNorth Dakota: Punt, from 66 yards out to 70PuntNebraska: Field goal, from 85 yards out to 14Field goalNorth Dakota: End of half, from 75 yards out to 76End of halfQ3North Dakota: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntNebraska: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Dakota: Punt, from 65 yards out to 69PuntNebraska: Punt, from 79 yards out to 73PuntNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownNebraska: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4North Dakota: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 10DownsNebraska: Punt, from 90 yards out to 43PuntNorth Dakota: Punt, from 90 yards out to 82PuntNebraska: Field goal, from 58 yards out to 22Field goalNorth Dakota: End of game, from 75 yards out to 41End of game
“I'm mid-poop but I hear our fight song playing from the living room. Good for us”
A Nebraska fan

How fans reacted

Steady

The loudest stretch came in the first quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthNebraska fansNorth Dakota fansusual

Box score

Nebraska 34, North Dakota 7

North Dakota covered +27.5 by 0.5. The total, 41, stayed under 56.5.

North DakotaNebraskaTotal yardsNorth Dakota 205Nebraska 493205493Passing yardsNorth Dakota 106Nebraska 216106216Rushing yardsNorth Dakota 99Nebraska 27799277First downsNorth Dakota 10Nebraska 221022TurnoversNorth Dakota 0Nebraska 000Time of possessionNorth Dakota 24:15Nebraska 35:4524:1535:45
Team totalsNorth DakotaNebraska
Total yards205493
Passing9 of 19, 106 yds18 of 26, 216 yds
Rushing36 for 99 yds45 for 277 yds
First downs1022
Third down1 of 127 of 15
Fourth down3 of 52 of 2
Turnovers00
Penalties1 for 5 yds4 for 45 yds
Time of possession24:1535:45

North Dakota leaders

  • Passing Jerry Kaminski 9 of 18, 106 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Matt Lawson 7 for 34 yds; Charles Langama 8 for 27 yds
  • Receiving Deng Deng 4 for 59 yds; Watson Hafer 1 for 18 yds

Nebraska leaders

  • Passing Anthony Colandrea 15 of 21, 195 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Jamal Rule 15 for 119 yds, 2 TD; Mekhi Nelson 9 for 54 yds
  • Receiving Kwazi Gilmer 3 for 42 yds; Jacory Barney Jr. 2 for 35 yds

No rain through the game

74° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Nebraska favoredNorth Dakota favored100%Win chanceNebraskaRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Nebraska favoredNorth Dakota favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:57 left6:17 p.m.
North Dakota 0, Nebraska 0 · Nebraska 97% to win
no rain · 74°
Colandrea incomplete to Hunter
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Lincoln airport, 3.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

North Dakota · 3-0

Rated 123rd in our preseason ratings, 124th now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

Last two games

Nebraska · 2-0

Rated 40th in our preseason ratings, 37th now.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

Week by week

Nebraska

Wk 1: W 49-21 vs Ohio▲28OhioWk 2: W 56-7 vs Bowling Green▲49Bowling Green
  • Wk 1Wvs Ohio49-21
  • Wk 2Wvs Bowling Green56-7

North Dakota

Wk 1: W 42-21 vs Long Island University▲21Long Island Uni…Wk 1: W 62-26 vs St. Thomas (MN)▲36St. Thomas (MN)Wk 2: W 47-23 at Portland State▲24Portland State
  • Wk 1Wvs Long Island University42-21
  • Wk 1Wvs St. Thomas (MN)62-26
  • Wk 2Wat Portland State47-23

Power rating by week

Nebraska is rated 8.8 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

7-0-7Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2NebraskaNorth Dakota

The series

Nebraska leads the series 2-0

2 meetings since 1961 · Nebraska has won the last 2

  • 2022Nebraska 38-17Nebraska won 38-17 vs North Dakota. Chance to win started at 96%, low 84%, high better than 99%.
  • 1961Nebraska 33-0

Each line is Nebraska’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Nebraska’s chances here.

50-50Model · 87%Line · 99%North DakotaNebraska

Nebraska favored by 27.5 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

Nebraska by 27.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Nebraska.

opened −24.5now −27.5

The total rose 5 points.

opened 51.5now 56.5

Spread: −24.5 → −27.5 · Total: 51.5 → 56.5

The books’ cut: 3.7%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 73° at kickoff.

North Dakota at Nebraska · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Memorial Stadium, Lincoln

  • 73°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 100weather score, Ideal
  • Tiedfor the best of the day's 8 kickoff times

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Memorial Stadium that day, a 1 pm kickoff would have scored 88, against 100 at 6:30 pm.

  • 11 am: 94, Comfortable
  • 11:45 am: 92, Comfortable
  • 1 pm: 88, Mixed
  • 2:30 pm: 91, Comfortable
  • 3:30 pm: 95, Comfortable
  • 6 pm: 100, Ideal
  • 6:30 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)
  • 7 pm: 97, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

Nebraska is worth +5.2 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 69th percentile.

47% at home, 28% on the road against FBS opponents (24-27 home, 11-29 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.2 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 490 miles to get here.

Where next